|
on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Jean-Guillaume Dumas (CASC - Calcul Algébrique et Symbolique, Sécurité, Systèmes Complexes, Codes et Cryptologie - LJK - Laboratoire Jean Kuntzmann - Inria - Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes); Sonia Jimenez-Garcès (CERAG - Centre d'études et de recherches appliquées à la gestion - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes); Florentina Șoiman (CASC - Calcul Algébrique et Symbolique, Sécurité, Systèmes Complexes, Codes et Cryptologie - LJK - Laboratoire Jean Kuntzmann - Inria - Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes, CERAG - Centre d'études et de recherches appliquées à la gestion - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes) |
| Abstract: | After ten years of continuous development and innovation, the cryptomarket and the Blockchain technology are still very much challenged and far from the mainstream adoption. We thus propose a risk assessment, as well as a market analysis of the Blockchain technology and the cryptomarket. This study is conceived as a two-level analysis. We first start with the micro-level analysis by performing a detailed risk assessment. Here, we take into consideration technological issues, such as such as consensus, network, cryptographic primitives, quantum and smart contract attacks, together with financial concerns such as market, information, liquidity, supply, reputation and environmental risks. Moreover, we propose ways to determine the probability that technological vulnerabilities can trigger financial risk. Here, we tackle concepts such as financial behavior, responsible investment and Blockchain literacy, as possible tools for assessing risk. Then, we complete this study with a macro-level analysis, which consists of the crypto-market appraisal performed with the Porter's five forces model. This market analysis is performed with respect to its stakeholders, such as the business process managers, investors, regulators, firms, developers, miners, hackers, exchange and trading platforms, etc. The results are relative to: 1. an identified continuity between the technological risks and financial ones; 2. a way to determine the likelihood of triggering financial risks through technical vulnerabilities; 3. a long-term profitability of the stakeholders' strategy / position within the market. |
| Keywords: | Blockchain,Risk assessment,Financial risks,Technological characteristics,Stakeholders,Financial behavior,Blockchain literacy,Socially responsible investment |
| Date: | 2021–01–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03112920&r= |
| By: | Richard Arena (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (... - 2019) - COMUE UCA - COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015 - 2019) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Côte d'Azur); Muriel Dal-Pont Legrand (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (... - 2019) - COMUE UCA - COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015 - 2019) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Côte d'Azur); Roger Guesnerie (CdF (institution) - Collège de France) |
| Date: | 2021–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-03325544&r= |
| By: | J.Ignacio Conde-Ruiz (Universidad Complutense de Madrid and ICAE (Spain).); Juan-José Ganuza (Universitat Pompeu Fabra and Barcelona GSE.); Manu García (Washington University in St. Louis and ICAE.); Luis A. Puch (Universidad Complutense de Madrid and ICAE (Spain).) |
| Abstract: | We analyze all the articles published in the top five (T5) Economics journals be- tween 2002 and 2019 in order to find gender differences in their research approach. We implement an unsupervised machine learning algorithm: the Structural Topic Model (STM), so as to incorporate gender document-level meta-data into a probabilistic text model. This algorithm characterizes jointly the set of latent topics that best fits our data (the set of abstracts) and how the documents/abstracts are allocated to each latent topic. Latent topics are mixtures over words where each word has a probability of belonging to a topic after controlling by journal name and publication year (the meta-data). Thus, the topics may capture research fields but also other more subtle characteristics related to the way in which the articles are written. We find that fe- males are unevenly distributed along the estimated latent topics, by using only data driven methods. This finding relies on “automatically” generated built-in data given the contents in the abstracts of the articles in the T5 journals, without any arbitrary allocation of texts to particular categories (as JEL codes, or research areas). |
| Keywords: | Machine Learning; Gender Gaps; Structural Topic Model; Gendered Language; Research Fields. |
| JEL: | I20 J16 Z13 |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucm:doicae:2109&r= |
| By: | Muriel Dal-Pont Legrand (CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (... - 2019) - COMUE UCA - COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015 - 2019) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Côte d'Azur, UCA - Université Côte d'Azur) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses how the macro agent-based literature which developed intensively during the last decades, analyses the issue of financial instability. This paper focuses its attention on two specific researchers' communities which, within this new paradigm, specifically emphasize this question. We examine their common analytical foundations, how they have been influenced by anterior research programs, and we distinguish their modeling strategies and how these distinct strategies led them to follow somewhat different objectives. |
| Abstract: | Ce papier analyse comment la macroéconomie multi-agents (MABM) qui a récemment connu un développement important, analyse la question de l'instabilité financière. Ce papier focalise l'attention sur deux communautés de chercheurs qui, au sein de ce paradigme, contribuent aujourd'hui plus spécifiquement à cette question. Nous examinons leurs fondements analytiques communs, notamment via les influences partagées issues de programmes de recherche antérieurs, ainsi que leurs stratégies de modélisation respectives et montrons ainsi comment ces dernières les conduisent à définir des objectifs quelque peu différents. |
| Keywords: | Minsky,K&S,CATS,microeconomic foundations,financial instability,Macro agent-based models,Leijonhufvud,Stiglitz |
| Date: | 2021–08–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-03325545&r= |
| By: | Coenen, Günter; Montes-Galdón, Carlos; Schmidt, Sebastian |
| Abstract: | The secular decline in the equilibrium real interest rate observed over the past decades has materially limited the room for policy-rate reductions in recessions, and has led to a marked increase in the incidence of episodes where policy rates are likely to be at, or near, the effective lower bound on nominal interest rates. Using the ECB's New Area-Wide Model, we show that, if unaddressed, the effective lower bound can cause substantial costs in terms of worsened macroeconomic performance, as re ected in negative biases in in ation and economic activity, as well as heightened macroeconomic volatility. These costs can be mitigated by the use of nonstandard instruments, notably the joint use of interest-rate forward guidance and large-scale asset purchases. When considering alternatives to in ation targeting, wefind that make-up strategies such as price-level targeting and average-in ation targeting can, if they are well-understood by the private sector, largely undo the negative biases and heightened volatility induced by the effective lower bound. |
| Keywords: | Effective lower bound,monetary policy,asset purchases,forward guidance,make-up strategies |
| JEL: | E31 E32 E37 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cfswop:656&r= |
| By: | Eric Danan (CY - CY Cergy Paris Université, CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, THEMA - Théorie économique, modélisation et applications - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - CY - CY Cergy Paris Université) |
| Abstract: | Mongin (1994) proved a multi-profile version of Harsanyi (1955)'s Aggregation Theorem: within the expected utility model, a social welfare functional mapping profiles of individual utility functions into social preference relations satisfies the Pareto and Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives principles if and only if it is utilitarian. The present paper extends Mongin's analysis by allowing individuals to have incomplete preferences, represented by sets of utility functions. An impossibility theorem is first established: social preferences cannot satisfy all the expected utility axioms, precluding utilitarian aggregation in this extended setting. Adapting the objective vs. subjective rationality approach of Gilboa et al. (2010) to the present social choice settings representation theorems are then obtained by relaxing either the Completeness or the Independence axioms at the social level, yielding two forms of partial utilitarianism. |
| Keywords: | Aggregation,expected utility,completeness,independence,utilitarianism,social rationality |
| Date: | 2021–08–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03327900&r= |
| By: | Thomas TB Baudin; Bram De Rock; Paula Eugenia Gobbi |
| Abstract: | Household decisions are one of the key elements impacting many dimensions of any economy. In this paper, we review the economic literature onfamily types, focusing on nuclear, stem, and complex families. We show that family types are heterogeneous across and within countries, both inthe past and in present times. We argue that economists have focused too much their analysis on nuclear families, which may limit our capacity toanalyze the impact of institutional phenomena or public policies. We establish how each family type could relate to the basic ingredients of standardstructural models of household decisions. We believe this overview sets the stage for an interesting research avenue to improve the structural models of household decision making. |
| Keywords: | Family structures, Economic development, Household decisions |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eca:wpaper:2013/331659&r= |
| By: | Alain Marciano (MRE - Montpellier Recherche en Economie - UM - Université de Montpellier, UM - Université de Montpellier) |
| Abstract: | Buchanan did not write "An Economic Theory of Club" to complement Samuelson's analysis of public goods, but to develop a radically different, form of welfare economics – in which there is no social welfare function and individual utility functions cannot be "read" by external observers. It was the perspective Buchanan adopted to analyze the pricing of public goods and services, and from which he also envisaged clubs. The main feature Buchanan attributed to clubs was to implement a condition that made no sense in Samuelson's framework but that was crucial in Buchanan's and clubs made Samuelson's collective condition useless. Buchanan and Samuelson disagreed over the allocation of the costs of the public good on each individual. To Buchanan, it was by relying on individual's preferences. To Samuelson, by using a social welfare function. This has not much to do with the nature of the good, its "physical properties" to use Buchanan's words. |
| Date: | 2021–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03326422&r= |
| By: | Christine Arriola; Przemyslaw Kowalski; Frank van Tongeren |
| Abstract: | 2020 marked some of the largest reductions in trade and output volumes since WWII. Focusing on the COVID-19 pandemic and using the latest monthly and quarterly data on international trade of selected countries and products, this paper documents key shifts in geographical direction and product composition of international trade in 2020. Trade in services declined by more than twice as much as trade in goods and its recovery has also been slower. While the size of the drop in global trade relative to the drop in output in 2020 was smaller than during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), this was not related to the overall size of the trade impacts in 2020, but rather reflects the significant heterogeneity of trade and production impacts across specific goods, services and trade partners from COVID-19. Trade in several types of goods plummeted, while that in others increased markedly. As a result, the variation in trade impacts across the different product categories in 2020 was not only larger than during the GFC, but also larger than in any other year during the past two decades. The product structure of countries’ goods trade also changed significantly in 2020, indicating large adjustments. While some international supply chains came under pressure in early months of the pandemic, the data also show that supply chains were instrumental in the resumption of economic activity. The distance travelled by imported products actually continued to increase in 2020, largely as a result of China and other Asian countries filling supply gaps resulting from lockdowns and demand changes in other regions. These shifts occurred in the context of significant perturbations in the international transport sector. While it is not known which of the changes in 2020 will be only short-lived, some seem to show signs of longer-term shifts or are likely to result in long-term adjustments. Above all, the unprecedented heterogeneity of changes in trade flows across products, sources and destinations seen in 2020 suggests high uncertainty and adjustment costs, and implies an increased need ‒ and incentives ‒ for consumers, firms and governments to adopt new or intensify existing risk mitigation strategies. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19, Globalisation, International supply chains, International trade, Statistics |
| JEL: | F10 F14 F40 F61 |
| Date: | 2021–09–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:traaab:252-en&r= |
| By: | Michelle Baddeley (University of Technology Sydney); Geoff Harcourt |
| Abstract: | Sub-optimal levels of investment in fixed capital are a pressing problem for modern economics. Behavioural economics provides some potential explanations, but behavioural economic insights are not commonly incorporated into standard capital investment models which capture neither the diversity of investment appraisal techniques used in practice, nor the range of decision-making styles used by real-world businesses. In filling these gaps, this paper brings together insights from capital investment theory with insights from behavioural economics to develop a behavioural economic model of investment appraisal, allowing for boundedly-rational investment decision-making. This model is applied in a macroeconomic analysis to show how the misapplication of investment appraisal criteria, especially under conditions of endemic uncertainty, is associated with sub-optimal levels of macroeconomic investment - with negative macroeconomic implications in terms of production, employment, productivity, wages and cyclical volatility. |
| Keywords: | investment; heuristics; bias; behavioural macroeconomics |
| JEL: | E29 E70 D22 D25 M21 |
| Date: | 2021–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uts:ecowps:2021/05&r= |
| By: | Liao, Jingchi; Peng, Cameron; Zhu, Ning |
| Abstract: | We propose an extrapolative model of bubbles to explain the sharp rise in prices and volume observed in historical financial bubbles. The model generates a novel mechanism for volume: because of the interaction between extrapolative beliefs and disposition effects, investors are quick to not only buy assets with positive past returns but also sell them if good returns continue. Using account-level transaction data on the 2014–2015 Chinese stock market bubble, we test and confirm the model’s predictions about trading volume. We quantify the magnitude of the proposed mechanism and show that it can increase trading volume by another 30%. |
| Keywords: | OUP deal |
| JEL: | G11 G12 |
| Date: | 2021–06–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:110514&r= |
| By: | Thoma, Johanna |
| Abstract: | Behavioural economics has taught us that human agents don’t always display consistent, context-independent and stable preferences in their choice behaviour. Can we nevertheless do welfare economics in a way that lives up to the anti-paternalist ideal most economists subscribe to? I here discuss Sugden’s powerful critique of most previous attempts at doing so, which he dubs the ‘New Consensus’, as appealing to problematic notions of latent preference and inner rational agency. I elaborate on a fundamental rethinking of the normative foundations of anti-paternalist welfare measurement that often remains implicit in the behavioural welfare economics literature Sugden discusses, but which is required to make these accounts minimally plausible. I argue that, if we go along with this rethinking, Bernheim and Rangel’s (2007, 2009) choice-theoretic framework withstands Sugden’s criticism. Sugden’s own, more radical proposal is thus under-motivated by his critique of the ‘New Consensus’. |
| Keywords: | behavioural economics; welfare economics; anti-paternalism; preference purification; choice |
| JEL: | N0 |
| Date: | 2021–08–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:111789&r= |
| By: | Maxime Delabarre (Sciences Po - Sciences Po) |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to investigate the economic and institutional determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in the world post-2000. To this end, I analyze the inwards stocks of FDIs using unilateral and bilateral data. Based on the UNCTAD database, I also study the impact of Bilateral Investment Treaties on the inflow of FDIs. Main results provide evidence supporting the idea that treaties increase the inflows of FDIs in the years following their signature. However, regulations aimed at increasing the protection of property rights have a larger effect on the attractiveness for investors. This paper does not find robust evidence demonstrating that political stability and corruption level have significant effects. More, I demonstrate that an increase of tariffs in the host country results in an increase of FDIs, supposedly due to relocation processes. |
| Keywords: | FDI,economics,law,investments,institutions,political,development |
| Date: | 2021–09–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03334549&r= |
| By: | Aguima Aimé Bernard Lompo (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the effect of financial development on tax revenue mobilization in developing countries. Our empirical analysis uses the aggregate financial index that comprises the banking system's depth (size and activity), access, and efficiency of financial institutions and financial markets. Using panel data from developing countries over the period 1995-2017, our findings suggest that more developed financial sectors positively and significantly influence the government's ability to raise tax revenue. More interestingly, we find that this favorable effect is sensitive to developing countries characteristics, namely the level of economic development, the degree of financial openness and the stance of fiscal policies. When we more precisely look at the effects of disaggregated financial development components on tax revenues mobilization, we find that the estimated coefficients on the sub-components of financial development are statistically significant at least at 5 % of significance, except for the financial market's efficiency. The results denote that tax revenue in developing countries depends on financial institutions and financial markets. Finally, our results show that financial development contributes positively to tax revenue mobilization excluding resources. |
| Keywords: | Financial development,Economic growth |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03328502&r= |
| By: | Marc Fleurbaey (PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Stéphane Zuber (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | Utilitarianism plays a central role in economics, but there is a gap between theory, where it is dominant, and applications, where monetary criteria are often used. For applications, a key di culty for utilitarianism remains to de ne how utilities should be measured and compared across individuals. Drawing on Harsanyi's approach (Harsanyi, 1955) involving choices in risky situations, we introduce a new normalization of utilities that is the only one ensuring that: 1) a transfer from a rich to a poor is welfare enhancing, and 2) populations with more risk averse people have lower welfare. We embed these requirements in a new characterization of utilitarianism and study some implications of this "fair utilitarianism" for risk sharing, collective risk aversion and the design of health policy. |
| Keywords: | Fairness,social risk,utilitarianism |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:pseptp:halshs-01441070&r= |
| By: | Collard, Fabrice; Licandro, Omar |
| Abstract: | This paper embeds firm dynamics into the Neoclassical model and provides a simple framework to solve for the transitional dynamics of economies moving towards more selection. As in the Neoclassical model, markets are perfectly competitive, there is only one good and two production factors (capital and labor). At equilibrium, aggregate technology is Neoclassical, but the average quality of capital and the depreciation rate are both endogenous and positively related to selection. At steady state, output per capita and welfare both raise with selection. However, the selection process generates transitional welfare losses that may reduce in around 60% long term (consumption equivalent) welfare gains. The same property is shown to be true in a standard general equilibrium model with entry and fixed production costs. |
| Keywords: | Firm dynamics and selection; Neoclassical model; Capital irreversibility, Investment distortions; Transitional dynamics, Welfare gains |
| JEL: | E13 E23 D6 O4 |
| Date: | 2021–09–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:125924&r= |
| By: | Guo, Li; Härdle, Wolfgang; Tao, Yubo |
| Abstract: | Cryptocurrencies return cross-predictability and technological similarity yield information on risk propagation and market segmentation. To investigate these effects, we build a timevarying network for cryptocurrencies, based on the evolution of return cross-predictability and technological similarities. We develop a dynamic covariate-assisted spectral clustering method to consistently estimate the latent community structure of cryptocurrencies network that accounts for both sets of information. We demonstrate that investors can achieve better risk diversification by investing in cryptocurrencies from different communities. A cross-sectional portfolio that implements an inter-crypto momentum trading strategy earns a 1.08% daily return. By dissecting the portfolio returns on behavioral factors, we confirm that our results are not driven by behavioral mechanisms. |
| Keywords: | Community detection,Dynamic stochastic blockmodel,Covariates,Co-clustering,Network risk,Momentum |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:irtgdp:2021016&r= |
| By: | Laczó, Ferenc |
| Abstract: | In this study the concept of commodities is formulated according to the utility theory; following the principle of price elasticity of demand, differences of uncompensated and compensated price changes will be clearly interpreted; as the uncompensated and compensated price changes have different averaging properties, so two different CPI formulas need to be defined; arbitrary price changes are broken down into uncompensated and compensated price change to obtain a complete, dual CPI formula. |
| Keywords: | Economic Value of a Commodity; Uncompensated vs. Compensated Price Change; Common Units in Measurements; Dual CPI Formula; Supply-Driven and Demand-Driven Economy |
| JEL: | E31 |
| Date: | 2021–06–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:109724&r= |
| By: | Steve J. Bickley; Ho Fai Chan; Benno Torgler |
| Abstract: | The history of AI in economics is long and winding, much the same as the evolving field of AI itself. Economists have engaged with AI since its beginnings, albeit in varying degrees and with changing focus across time and places. In this study, we have explored the diffusion of AI and different AI methods (e.g., machine learning, deep learning, neur al networks, expert systems, knowledge- based systems) through and within economic subfields, taking a scientometrics approach. In particular, we centre our accompanying discussion of AI in economics around the problems of economic calculation and social planning as proposed by Hayek. To map the history of AI within and between economic sub- fields, we construct two datasets containing bibliometrics information of economics papers based on search query results from the Scopus database and the EconPapers (and IDEAs/RePEc) repository. We present descriptive results that map the use and discussion of AI in economics over time, place, and subfield. In doing so, we also characterise the authors and affiliations of those engaging with AI in economics. Additionally, we find positive correlations between quality of institutional affiliation and engagement with or focus on AI in economics and negative correlations between the Human Development Index and share of learning-based AI papers. |
| Keywords: | Artificial Intelligence; Machine Learning; Economics; Scientometrics; Science of Science; Bibliometrics |
| JEL: | B40 N01 A14 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cra:wpaper:2021-28&r= |
| By: | Felix Holzmeister (Department of Economics, University of Innsbruck); Christoph Huber (Institute of Markets and Strategy, Vienna University of Economics and Business); Stefan Palan (Institute of Banking and Finance, University of Graz) |
| Abstract: | Risk is one of the key aspects in financial decision-making and therefore an integral part of the behavioral economics and finance literature. Focusing on the conceptualization of the term ``risk'', which researchers have addressed from numerous angles, this comment aims to offer a critical perspective on the interactions between risk preferences (a latent trait), risk perceptions (how individuals judge whether something is risky), and risk-taking behavior as distinct concepts, and hence to guide future research on (individual-level) decision-making processes in this direction. |
| Date: | 2021–09–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:grz:wpsses:2021-06&r= |
| By: | Deepankar Basu (Department of Economics, University of Massachusetts Amherst); Ramaa Vasudevan (Department of Economics, Colorado State University.) |
| Abstract: | We revisit the hypotheses of unequal exchange and deteriorating terms of trade in the specific context of import-intensive, export- led strategies of developing countries which rely on integration into GVCs for access to markets in developed countries using a stylized two-country two-commodity Classical- Marxian trade model. Two sources of asymmetry can be distinguished: market power arising from the competition between suppliers that depresses the prices at which the final good is supplied; and monopoly power arising from the lead firms control and ownership of intangible assets including brand and design. The model explores some implications of these two sources of asymmetry. |
| Keywords: | Unequal Exchange, Global Value Chains, Classical Trade Model |
| JEL: | F02 F23 O19 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ums:papers:2021-13&r= |
| By: | François Courtoy (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES)); Michel de Vroey (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES)); Riccardo Turati (Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the way in which macroeconomics is taught at the undergraduate and graduate levels. Based on two sources of information, the world’s largest network of library content and services, the WorldCat data base, and a survey of the textbooks used for teaching at leading universities across the world, the paper provides an up-to-date description of macroeconomics teaching. Our results show a clear methodological divide: whereas IS-LM/AS-AD modeling is the theoretical core of undergraduate textbooks, graduate ones have the RBC model as their baseline model. |
| Keywords: | macroeconomics, textbooks, IS-LM/AS-AD, RBC |
| JEL: | A22 A23 E00 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctl:louvir:2021023&r= |
| By: | Mario Alloza (Banco de España); Javier Andrés (Universidad de Valencia); Pablo Burriel (Banco de España); Iván Kataryniuk (Banco de España); Javier J. Pérez (Banco de España); Juan Luis Vega (Banco de España) |
| Abstract: | The main proposals for the reform of the European Union’s fiscal policy framework affect three blocks of issues: (i) simplifying the rules to make them more transparent and flexible; (ii) incorporating new supranational risk-sharing instruments into the Economic and Monetary Union, in particular to facilitate the absorption of severe shocks; and (iii) the fiscal aspects necessarily being accompanied by reforms at the national (structural reforms) and supranational (e.g. pressing forward with the capital markets union) levels. Irrespective of their political feasibility, these proposals do not easily fit the current macroeconomic environment, which is far removed from that of the 1990s: structural trends, such as digitalisation, globalisation, the climate transition and population ageing, affecting the natural rates of interest and potential growth are emerging or taking hold. Also, after the Great Moderation, we have entered a period of severe global shocks. In this paper we argue that this setting calls for a paradigm shift in how the fiscal policy framework is designed, as opposed to the incremental reform approach of recent decades. This should include improved governance of fiscal rules, which should be simpler, more functional and more credible than the current ones, but it should also go a step further and incorpórate supranational risk-sharing components enabling the smooth operation of the monetary and fiscal policy mix, from a wider euro area perspective. We provide quantitative elements to illustrate several challenges with a bearing on any reform process in the current setting: (i) medium-term debt anchors should be adapted to the medium and long-term interest rate and potential growth expectations; (ii) economies may remain subject to very severe shocks, meaning that fiscal space must be recovered in the medium term; and (iii) realistic mechanisms for absorbing existing fiscal imbalances must be implemented. |
| Keywords: | fiscal policy, fiscal governance, fiscal rules, public debt, public deficit, interest rates |
| JEL: | E62 E63 H60 H61 H62 H63 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bde:opaper:2121e&r= |
| By: | Yamashita, Takuro; Murooka, Takeshi |
| Abstract: | We consider an adverse selection environment between an informed seller and an uninformed buyer, where no trade occurs when all buyers are rational. The buyer may be a “behavioral” type in the sense that he may take actions different from a rational type. We show that, for any incentive-feasible mechanism with any non-trivial trade, the buyer’s ex-ante expected payoff is strictly negative. Our result implies that whenever trade occurs, some behavioral types must incur losses. |
| Keywords: | Adverse selection; Inferential naivety; Mechanism design; Behavioral contract theory; Consumer protection |
| JEL: | D82 D89 D90 D91 |
| Date: | 2021–09–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:125926&r= |
| By: | Jain, Neha (Indian Institute of Foreign Trade); Goli, Srinivas |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we assess the economic benefits of demographic changes in India by employing econometric models and robustness checks based on panel data gathered over a period of more than three decades. Our analysis highlights four key points. First, the contribution of India’s demographic dividend is estimated to be around 1.9 percentage points out of 12% average annual growth rate in per capita income during 1981–2015. Second, India’s demographic window of opportunity began in 2005, significantly improved after 2011, and will continue till 2061. Third, our empirical analysis supports the argument that the realisation of the demographic dividend is conditional on a conducive policy environment with enabling aspects such as quality education, good healthcare, decent employment opportunities, good infrastructure, and gender empowerment. Fourth, the working-age population in India contributes around one-fourth of the inequality in per capita income across states. Thus, to reap the maximum dividends from the available demographic window of opportunity, India needs to work towards enhancing the quality of education and healthcare in addition to providing good infrastructure, gender empowerment, and decent employment opportunities for the growing working-age population. |
| Date: | 2021–09–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:sd7na&r= |
| By: | Greenwood, John (The Johns Hopkins Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise) |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this paper is to clarify the relation between money and interest rates. In section 1, the author examines the empirical validity of Keynes’s claims for his liquidity preference theory by looking at the relation between changes in interest rates and changes in the quantity of money. In section 2, the author considers Irving Fisher’s findings. Fisher, whose studies had mostly preceded Keynes, had shown that over any longer-term horizon the relation between money and interest rates was exactly the reverse of Keynes’ hypothesis of short-term liquidity preference. A reconciliation is proposed that treats Keynes’ theory as a short-term, liquidity effect, and Fisher’s results, which incorporate the effect of inflation or inflation expectations, as the longer-term determinant of interest rates. In section 3, the author applies the resulting combined theory of the relation between money and interest rates to five case studies in recent decades: two from Japan, and one each from the Eurozone, the U.K. and the U.S. The conclusion is that interest rates are a highly misleading guide to the stance of monetary policy; it is invariably better to rely on the growth rate of a broad definition of money when assessing the stance of monetary policy |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:jhisae:0190&r= |
| By: | Jörn H. Block (emlyon business school); Alexander Groh; Lars Hornuf; Tom Vanacker; Silvio Vismara |
| Abstract: | Entrepreneurial finance markets are in a dynamic state. New market niches and players have developed and continue to emerge. The rules of the game and the methods for receiving financial backing have changed in many ways. This editorial and the special issue of Small Business Economics focus on crowdfunding (CF) and initial coin offerings (ICOs), which are two distinct but important entrepreneurial finance market segments of the future. Although the two market segments initially appear to be similar, we identify differences between them. Our comparison focuses on the stakeholders, microstructures, regulatory environments, and development of the markets. We conclude with suggestions for future ICO and CF research. |
| Keywords: | Initial Coin Offerings,Initial Token Offerings,Crowdfunding,Entrepreneurial Finance |
| Date: | 2021–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03337456&r= |
| By: | Andrew L. Allan; Christa Cuchiero; Chong Liu; David J. Pr\"omel |
| Abstract: | Based on a rough path foundation, we develop a model-free approach to stochastic portfolio theory (SPT). Our approach allows to handle significantly more general portfolios compared to previous model-free approaches based on F\"ollmer integration. Without the assumption of any underlying probabilistic model, we prove pathwise Master formulae analogous to those of classical SPT, describing the growth of wealth processes associated to functionally generated portfolios relative to the market portfolio. We show that the appropriately scaled asymptotic growth rate of a far reaching generalization of Cover's universal portfolio based on controlled paths coincides with that of the best retrospectively chosen portfolio within this class. We provide several novel results concerning rough integration, and highlight the advantages of the rough path approach by considering (non-functionally generated) log-optimal portfolios in an ergodic It\^o diffusion setting. |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2109.01843&r= |
| By: | Babak Naysary (INTI International University, Faculty of Business, Nilai, Malaysia); Ruth Tacneng (LAPE - Laboratoire d'Analyse et de Prospective Economique - GIO - Gouvernance des Institutions et des Organisations - UNILIM - Université de Limoges); Amine Tarazi (LAPE - Laboratoire d'Analyse et de Prospective Economique - GIO - Gouvernance des Institutions et des Organisations - UNILIM - Université de Limoges) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the relationship between an individual's saving and borrowing practices and his/her propensity to use fintech services. More particularly, we examine whether having multiple saving and borrowing channels increases a person's likelihood to participate in online funding platforms, and use robo-advisors. Using a sample of over 2000 respondents to a survey we conducted in Malaysia, our main results indicate that individuals who save and borrow via multiple channels, and through external conduits, are more likely to use fintech services than their counterparts. This is consistent with the view that individuals who use multiple saving and borrowing conduits are more likely to perform mental accounting, a concept which is commonly used by fintech companies to facilitate personal wealth management. Further, our findings reveal that among respondents with multiple saving channels, those who put less importance on trust in financial products, and consider financial returns essential, are the most likely users of fintech services. Overall, our findings offer new insights by providing a better understanding of the factors that foster the use of fintech services. |
| Keywords: | alternative lending,trust,fintech,P2P lending platforms,crowdfunding,robo-advisors |
| Date: | 2021–09–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03335254&r= |
| By: | Maxime Delabarre (Sciences Po - Sciences Po) |
| Abstract: | Through a review of the different forms of interdependence between states and economies, this essay argues that an international response resulting from further global cooperation is the way forward. As interdependence is now weaponized to serve countries' interests, coordination is needed across global players. Specifically, trade and economic negotiations have to take place. However, one needs also to consider deep modifications to the current international framework, strongly unbalanced. International taxation, global public goods, climate change, and global value chain are among the subjects needed to be reconsidered. |
| Date: | 2021–09–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03334550&r= |
| By: | Christiane Baumeister (University of Notre Dame, University of Pretoria, NBER and CEPR); Danilo Leiva-León (Banco de España); Eric Sims (University of Notre Dame and NBER) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we develop a novel dataset of weekly economic conditions indices for the 50 U.S. states going back to 1987 based on mixed-frequency dynamic factor models with weekly, monthly, and quarterly variables that cover multiple dimensions of state economies. We show that there is considerable heterogeneity in the length, depth, and timing of business cycles across individual states. We assess the role of states in national recessions and propose an aggregate indicator that allows us to gauge the overall weakness of the U.S. economy. We also illustrate the usefulness of these state-level indices for quantifying the main forces contributing to the economic collapse caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and for evaluating the effectiveness of federal economic policies like the Paycheck Protection Program. |
| Keywords: | local economic conditions, government policies, weekly indicators, state economies, cross-state heterogeneity, mixed-frequency dynamic factor model, economic weakness index, Markov-switching, recession probabilities |
| JEL: | C32 C55 E32 E66 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bde:wpaper:2134&r= |
| By: | Codrina Rada, Marcio Santetti, Ansel Schiavone, Rudiger von Arnim |
| Abstract: | The stylized facts of neoliberalism include a decline in steady state rate of growth and labor share. Recent classical-Keynesian literature sees the latter as a cause for the former. A crucial element is the distinction between short and long run. The business cycle is profit-led and profit-squeeze, but the steady state features a wage led natural rate of growth. This paper presents simple macroeconomic models in this vein. Our starting point is to assume an adverse shock to real wage bargaining, which across all models depresses the labor share. We consider (i) a two-dimensional model in income-capital ratio and labor share, a (ii) three-dimensional model that adds the employment rate as state variable, and a (iii) four-dimensional model that furthermore endogenizes the savings propensity. Key results are that model (i) predicts an increase (decrease) in the warranted (natural) rate of growth, and thus does not generate balanced growth; (ii) resolves this problem and predicts stagnation in steady state, but implies a long run paradox of thrift; and (iii) allows for contextualization vis-a-vis ` the utilization controversy. |
| Keywords: | Goodwin theory; labor suppression; secular stagnation JEL Classification: E12, E25, E32, J50 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uta:papers:2021_05&r= |
| By: | Mohammed Abdellaoui (GREGHEC, HEC Paris - Ecole des Hautes Etudes Commerciales, CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Enrico Diecidue (Insead - INSEAD - INSEAD); Emmanuel Kemel (GREGHEC, HEC Paris - Ecole des Hautes Etudes Commerciales, CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Ayse Onculer (ESSEC Business School - Essec Business School) |
| Abstract: | This paper reports two experiments in which attitudes towards temporal risk resolution is elicited from choices between two-outcome lotteries that pay out at some future fixed date and can be resolved either now or later. We show that matching probabilities provides a simple method to measure attitudes towards temporal resolution-via the utility scaleunder Kreps and Porteus' (1978) recursive expected utility. We also analyze our data using a general recursive model that can reveal attitudes towards temporal risk resolution through the utility scale and/or the probability weighting scale. In terms of goodness of fit, as well as of prediction accuracy, our results point to a better performance of the probability weighting approach. More specifically, we show that individuals become less sensitive and more pessimistic with respect to winning probabilities when lotteries are resolved later rather than now. |
| Keywords: | Temporal resolution of uncertainty,temporal risk,recursive expected utility,preference for early resolution,probability weighting,recursive rank-dependent utility,time preference,risk preference |
| Date: | 2021–08–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03330225&r= |
| By: | Daniele Girardi (Department of Economics, University of Massachusetts Amherst (USA)) |
| Abstract: | This paper surveys the neoclassical theory of aggregate investment and its criticisms. We identify four main strands in neoclassical investment theory: (i) the traditional Wicksellian model; (ii) the Fisherian ‘array-of-opportunities’ approach; (iii) the Jorgensonian model; (iv) the now prevailing adjustment cost models. We summarize each approach, discuss the main conceptual issues, and highlight similarities and differences between them. We also provide a systematic summary and discussion of the main criticisms that have been leveled at each of these models and highlight some unresolved theoretical issues. |
| Keywords: | investment, neoclassical theory, adjustment costs |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ums:papers:2021-11&r= |
| By: | Miguel Riviere (BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Sylvain Caurla (BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | Forest sector models encompass a set of models used for forest-related policy analysis. As representations of a complex human-environment system, they incorporate multiple facts from their target, the forest sector, which is usually understood as comprising forests, forestry and forest industries. Even though they pursue similar goals and display similarities, forest sector models show divergences in their representation of the forest sector. In this paper, we question and discuss the determinants behind the representation of facts in forest sector models, and try to highlight the reasons behind modelling practices. The forest sector's boundaries are often unclear, and it comprises facts of different natures for which dynamics take place on different time and spatial scales. As a result, modelling practices vary, and both empirical data and theory play varying roles in representing facts. Early models were developed in the 1970s and find their roots in traditional forest economics, the economics of natural resources, econometrics, but also transportation problems and system dynamics. Because they developed within a small but well-connected field, early efforts were influential in shaping current practices. Numerical simulation and scenario analysis are used as means of enquiry into model worlds: in that, forest sector models are a classical example of model use in economics, and they constitute a good example of how simulation models have been developed for decision-support purposes. Forest sector modelling is heavily influenced by its applied uses, and policy contexts shape both questions asked and how facts are introduced in scenario storylines. Understanding the determinants of modelling choices is necessary to ensure sound modelling practices. Forest sector models are now used to address issues wider than timber production. Practices turn to integration into multi-model frameworks to expand the boundaries of the system studied, but also towards the use of qualitative methods as new ways of representing facts, in particular deep changes that quantitative models may not be able to capture. |
| Abstract: | Les modèles de secteur forestier sont des outils utilisés dans le cadre d'exercices de prospective portant sur la filière forêt-bois. En tant que représentations de systèmes complexes, ces derniers incorporent de multiples faits issus de leur cible dans le monde réel, et qui peuvent être de différentes natures : dynamiques naturelles, procédés industriels, comportements économiques. Bien que poursuivant des objectifs semblables, ces modèles divergent dans le choix des faits représentés ainsi que dans celui des méthodes utilisées pour les représenter. Dans cet article, nous mettons en lumière les déterminants derrière les représentations du secteur forestier dans les modèles de filière, et remettons ainsi en perspective les pratiques de modélisation, notamment vis-à-vis de leur ancrage historique et méthodologique. Le secteur forestier constitue a priori un ensemble bien défini, mais ses limites exactes sont souvent floues. Elles varient selon la région du monde ou l'échelle spatiale considérée, et comprennent des dynamiques intervenant sur des échelles temporelles souvent disjointes. En résultent des choix de modélisation variés, utilisant à divers degrés théorie et données empiriques. Les premiers modèles furent développés dans les années 1970 et trouvent leur inspiration dans l'économie forestière et celle des ressources naturelles, mais aussi dans la dynamique des systèmes et les problèmes de transport optimal. Héritières d'une recherche au sein d'un champ restreint, les pratiques de modélisation du secteur forestier se sont fortement influencées entre elles, et l'empreinte des premiers modèles se retrouve encore aujourd'hui. La recherche repose sur des simulations numériques permettant d'explorer les futurs possibles par analyse de scénario, et le modélisateur observe le modèle afin d'en tirer des conclusions à propos du système représenté. En cela, les modèles de secteur forestier constituent un exemple archétypal de l'émergence de la simulation en économie comme procédé d'appui à la décision. En retour, le contexte dans lequel un modèle est développé a une forte influence sur les pratiques de modélisation, qu'il guide. Les modèles de secteur forestier sont aujourd'hui utilisés pour traiter de thématiques environnementales, et les pratiques se tournent vers une intégration de plus en plus forte avec d'autres modèles, permettant de repousser les limites du système représenté, mais aussi vers le recours à des méthodes qualitatives comme une nouvelle manière de représenter les faits difficiles à prendre en compte à l'aide de modèles quantitatifs. |
| Keywords: | Forest economics,Mathematical model,Simulation model,Prospective,Economie forestière,Modèle mathématique,Modèle de simulation |
| Date: | 2020–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03088084&r= |
| By: | Abramov Alexander (RANEPA); Chernova Maria (RANEPA); Radygin Alexandr (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | In 2020, after the sudden financial shock in March caused by sales of risky assets by investors against the backdrop of the rising coronavirus pandemic, stock markets in many countries recovered faster than did the economic indicators. The traditional hypothesis that the value of financial assets depends more strongly on future investor expectations than on past events has been confirmed. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, stock market, bond market, corporate bond market, derivatives market, private investors |
| JEL: | G01 G12 G18 G21 G24 G28 G32 G33 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2021-1119&r= |
| By: | Forscher, Teddy; Deakin, Elizabeth PhD; Walker, Joan PhD |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 pandemic brought about dramatic shifts in travel, including shopping trips. We investigated changes in eshopping for food and non-food items by supplementing an April to May 2018 household travel survey (n=3,956 households) conducted by the Sacramento Area Council of Governments (SACOG) with a May 2020 follow-on panel survey (n=313 households) during one week early in the pandemic. Results demonstrate that impacts from added pickups and deliveries in the SACOG region during the first two months of the COVID-19 pandemic were limited and did not overwhelm curb management at retail, restaurant, and grocery establishments. Results also show that during the pandemic e-commerce tended to replace non-food shopping trips, but complemented restaurant and grocery trips. However, Forty percent of the sample households — predominantly lower income and/or older populations — still shopped only in-store for food while more affluent households appear to have isolated themselves from virus exposure through more extensive online shopping. We recommend extending the forms of accepted payment for online shopping and reducing fees and markups based upon payment method to reduce barrier to online shopping for those with limited resources. We identify possible consequences (e.g., more vehicle miles traveled and higher demand for curbside parking) if e-commerce food purchasing continues to grow post-pandemic or if in-person retail shopping returns to normal. |
| Keywords: | Engineering |
| Date: | 2021–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt6mx0w7hj&r= |
| By: | Jun Yoshida; Shinsuke Uchida; Katsuhito Nohara; Akira Hibiki |
| Abstract: | Recently, natural disasters and extreme weather events have been occurring more frequently. This study examines how large floods affect the value of manufacturing product shipments and the number of facilities in the long run using municipality-level data in Japan. We considered the impacts of flooding depending on the size of the facilities and past flood experiences (leading to flood preparedness in advance). We found "build back better" dynamics, in which the value of manufacturing product shipments grew in cities affected by floods. We also found that large facilities increased, while small and mid-sized facilities decreased following floods. These results suggest two important mechanisms characterizing the damage and recovery processes of floods. First, large facilities were more resilient to flooding, while small and mid-sized facilities were more vulnerable to flooding. Economies of scale resulting from small facilities exit, and an increase in large facilities may increase the number of shipments of manufactured goods per facility. Experience with past floods did not affect the activities of large facilities. In frequently flooded cities, the activity levels of small and mid-sized facilities recovered to predisaster trends. In rarely flooded cities, a long-term decline was observed in the business activities of small and mid-sized facilities because they likely needed to revise their supply chains due to unexpected events. In addition, unexpected flooding had devastating effects on employment. |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:toh:tupdaa:7&r= |
| By: | Manasa Gopal |
| Abstract: | I study the role of collateral on small business credit access in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis. I construct a novel, loan-level dataset covering all collateralized small business lending in Texas from 2002-2016 and link it to the U.S. Census of Establishments. Using textual analysis, I show that post-2008, lenders reduced credit supply to borrowers outside of the lender's collateral specialization. This result holds when comparing lending to the same borrower from different lenders, and when comparing lending by the same lender to different borrowers. A one standard deviation higher specialization in collateral increases lending to the same firm by 3.7%. Abstracting from general equilibrium effects, if firms switched to lenders with the highest specialization in their collateral, aggregate lending would increase by 14.8%. Furthermore, firms borrowing from lenders with greater specialization in the borrower's collateral see a larger growth in employment after 2008. Finally, I show that firms with collateral more frequently accepted by lenders in the economy find it easier to switch lenders. In sum, my paper shows that borrowing from specialized lenders increases access to credit and employment during a financial crisis. |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:wpaper:21-22&r= |
| By: | Peter Skott (Department of Economics, University of Massachusetts Amherst) |
| Abstract: | Phillips curves and natural rates of unemployment provide a poor foundation for analyzing inflation in developing economies. Structuralist alternatives have focused on distributional conflict and cross-sectoral interactions, but if the distributional claims are exogenous, the theory has formal similarities with mainstream analysis, generating a natural rate of underemployment. This paper outlines a modified structuralist model in which historically determined distributional claims eliminate this natural rate of underemployment. Economic development and structural transformation are not blocked by immutable distributional claims, but shocks to relative incomes can produce explosive inflation. |
| Keywords: | Phillips curve, underemployment, distributional conáict, structuralist model |
| JEL: | E31 O23 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ums:papers:2021-08&r= |
| By: | Jain, Neha (Indian Institute of Foreign Trade); Goli, Srinivas |
| Abstract: | This paper projects potential demographic dividend for India for the period from 2001 to 2061 by using simulation modelling software, Spectrum 5.753 which integrates demographic and socio-economic changes. Two key findings, after checking their robustness, from the simulation modelling are: First, the effective demographic windows of opportunity for India is available for the period between 2011 and 2041, giving India roughly 30 years of demographic bonus. It is the period where the maximum of the first demographic dividend can be reaped before the ageing burden starts. Second, favourable demographic changes alone provide a demographic dividend of over 165,000 rupees (almost an additional 43 percentage) in terms of GDP per capita by 2061 when integrated with supporting socio-economic policy environment in terms of investment in human capital, family planning, decent employment opportunities, the rapid pace of urbanization, and agricultural growth. |
| Date: | 2021–09–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:rvf9n&r= |
| By: | Okano, Eiji; Eguchi, Masataka |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we analyze the effects of money-financed (MF) fiscal stimulus and compare them with those resulting from a conventional debt-financed (DF) fiscal stimulus in a small open economy. We find that in normal times which is a period when a zero lower bound (ZLB) on the nominal interest rate is not applicable, MF fiscal stimulus is effective in increasing output. In a liquidity trap where the ZLB is applicable, even though the decrease in both consumer price index (CPI) inflation and output is more severe than in a closed economy when there is no fiscal response, MF fiscal stimulus is effective in stabilizing both. Accordingly, we show that even in an imperfect pass-through environment including a liquidity trap, an increase in government expenditure under MF fiscal stimulus is effective. In contrast, our policy implications concerning an increase in government expenditure under DF fiscal stimulus lie opposite to Gali, Jordi (2020), “The Effects of a Money-financed Fiscal Stimulus,” Journal of Monetary Economics, 115, 1-19, assuming a closed economy. In normal times, an increase in government expenditure under the DF scheme in a small open economy is more effective than in a closed economy, although Gali (2020) argues that it is much less effective. In a liquidity trap, an increase in government expenditure under the DF scheme is less effective, also in contrast to Gali (2020). We find that even in an imperfect pass-through environment, an increase in government expenditure under DF fiscal stimulus is not effective. Thus, in a small open economy, MF fiscal stimulus is not always essential in normal times, and in a liquidity trap, MF fiscal stimulus is more important than what Gali (2020) suggests because DF fiscal stimulus is not effective, irrespective of nominal exchange rate pass-through. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal Stimulus; Money Financing; Debt Financing; Zero Lower Bound; Imperfect Pass-through |
| JEL: | E31 E32 E52 E62 F41 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpm:dynare:070&r= |
| By: | Shreya Biswas |
| Abstract: | The study examines the relationship between mobile financial services and individual financial behavior in India wherein a sizeable population is yet to be financially included. Addressing the endogeneity associated with the use of mobile financial services using an instrumental variable method, the study finds that the use of mobile financial services increases the likelihood of investment, having insurance and borrowing from formal financial institutions. Further, the analysis highlights that access to mobile financial services have the potential to bridge the gender divide in financial inclusion. Fastening the pace of access to mobile financial services may partially alter pandemic induced poverty. |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2109.07077&r= |
| By: | Jiamin Yu |
| Abstract: | It has been for a long time to use big data of autonomous vehicles for perception, prediction, planning, and control of driving. Naturally, it is increasingly questioned why not using this big data for risk management and actuarial modeling. This article examines the emerging technical difficulties, new ideas, and methods of risk modeling under autonomous driving scenarios. Compared with the traditional risk model, the novel model is more consistent with the real road traffic and driving safety performance. More importantly, it provides technical feasibility for realizing risk assessment and car insurance pricing under a computer simulation environment. |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2109.07211&r= |
| By: | Matías Lamas (Banco de España); David Martínez-Miera (UC3M and CEPR) |
| Abstract: | We analyze the evolution and price implications of aggregate sectorial holdings of stocks, using detailed information on the universe of publicly traded stocks in the euro area. We document that: i) households’ (HH) direct holdings represent a higher fraction of total ownership in domestic bank stocks than in non-financial corporation (NFC) stocks; ii) HH holdings of stocks increase (decrease) following a decline (increase) in the stock price, especially for domestic bank stocks; and iii) an increase in domestic HH holdings is followed by future (persistent) increases in the price of NFC stocks, but not for bank stocks. Moreover, during equity issuances, an increase in the share of domestic HH holdings is followed by a future (persistent) decrease in the stock price of bank stocks, but not for NFC stocks. Our results are consistent with HH being liquidity providers in the stock market, and at the same time subject to negative information asymmetries. We argue that this latter effect is more prevalent in domestic bank stocks than in NFC given the close relationships between HH and banks. |
| Keywords: | household ownership, stock prices, equity issuance, banks, non-financial corporations, liquidity provision, informational asymmetries |
| JEL: | G11 G14 G21 G50 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bde:wpaper:2130&r= |
| By: | Tomas Adam; Ondrej Michalek; Ales Michl; Eva Slezakova |
| Abstract: | We introduce the Rushin, a weekly index of Czech economic activity. The index is based on alternative, high-frequency indicators and standard, low-frequency macroeconomic data. Various information from the economy is aggregated to extract a signal about real-time dynamics in the real economy. Although the information on the GDP growth rate is not used directly in the construction of the index, the indicator fits GDP data well, particularly in turbulent times such as the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 crisis. Therefore, it can be used for the real-time monitoring of economic activity, nowcasting and identifying turning points in the economy. The name of the index alludes to the name of Czechoslovakia's first finance minister Alois Rasin and the timeliness (rush-) of the index (-in). |
| Keywords: | COVID-19 crisis, economic activity index, high-frequency indicators, nowcasting |
| JEL: | C32 C43 E01 E32 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2021/4&r= |
| By: | Oriane Lafuente-Sampietro (TRIANGLE - Triangle : action, discours, pensée politique et économique - ENS Lyon - École normale supérieure - Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - IEP Lyon - Sciences Po Lyon - Institut d'études politiques de Lyon - Université de Lyon - UJM - Université Jean Monnet [Saint-Étienne] - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | This article will investigate the links between convertible local currencies (CLCs) and economic localisation. Following on the qualitative study by Marshall and O'Neil (2018), we will answer the following question: to what extent do convertible local currencies foster the localisation of procurement and production by creating new commercial relationships between businesses that use them? We will use data from a quantitative survey conducted by the Mouvement SOL, a French net- work of CLCs, for individual (n=1597) and provider (n=542) users of French CLCs. We will also address how new providers are found through the currency and analyse the change in con- sumption and production practices. This first analysis will be supported by a case study on the Eusko, the largest convertible local currency in France. The Eusko case makes it possible to cross-reference the survey data from Eusko users with the transaction data from digital Eusko users in order to evaluate whether the results of forming commercial relationships between companies are consistent across both sources. We will also use digital Eusko transaction data to run a network analysis, enabling us to observe the development of commercial relationships inside the community over time. We found that between one fourth to one third of businesses in a CLC network find new business partners in their CLC community, connecting with 3.5 new partners on average. These results are more encouraging than the absence of localisation found by Marshall and O'Neil (2018). Transaction data also allows us to determine which sectors benefit the most from the circulation of CLC and thus draw a conclusion on the capacity of the currency to move from the localisation of procurement to the localisation of production. Our results on this point are more balanced. The retail sector benefits the most from the circulation of Eusko and actors in this sector ex- change 40% of the CLC received into national currency, limiting the flow of income exchanged within the CLC. |
| Keywords: | Economic localisation,Convertible local currency,Monnaie locale complémentaire,Monnaie alternative |
| Date: | 2021–06–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-03324630&r= |
| By: | Nicolai Suppa (Centre d'Estudis Demografics, Autonomous University of Barcelona) |
| Abstract: | The Global Multidmensional Poverty Index (MPI) is a cross-country poverty measure published by the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative since 2010. The estimation requires household survey data because multidimensional poverty measures seek to exploit the joint distribution of deprivations in the identification step of poverty measurement. Analyses of multidimensional poverty draw on several aggregate measures (e.g., the headcount ratio), dimensional quantities (e.g., indicator contributions), and auxiliary statistics (e.g., non-response rates). Robustness analyses of key parameters (e.g., poverty cutoffs) and several levels of analysis (e.g., subnational regions) further increase the number of estimates. In 2018 the underlying workflow has been revised and subjected to continuous development, which for the first time allowed figures to be calculated for 105 countries in a single round. In 2021, this workflow was substantially expanded to include the estimation of changes over time. In 2021 the regular global MPI release includes 109 countries (with 1291 subnational regions) whereas changes over time are provided for 84 countries with 793 subnational regions over up to three years. In total this release builds on 220 micro datasets. For a large-scale project like this, a clear and efficient workflow is essential. This presentation introduces key elements of the workflow and presents solutions with Stata for particular problems, including the structure of a comprehensive results file, which facilitates both analysis and production of deliverables, the usability of the estimation files, the collaborative nature of the project, the country briefing production, and how some of the additional challenges introduced by the incorporation of changes over time have been addressed so far. This presentation seeks to share the gained experience and to subject both the principal workflow and selected solutions to public scrutiny. |
| Date: | 2021–09–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boc:usug21:2&r= |
| By: | Isabel Argimón (Banco de España); María Rodríguez-Moreno (Banco de España) |
| Abstract: | Using Spanish confidential supervisory data, this paper examines the effect of geographic and business complexity, their interaction and relative importance for banks’ risk, where the degree of complexity stems from the corporate structure of banking groups affiliates. The results show that while business complexity results in higher risk, geographic complexity gives rise to diversification benefits, thus lowering risk. However, geographic complexity alone is not enough, as its effect depends on how it interacts with business complexity. Higher business complexity abroad in relation to that at home may counterbalance the benefits of diversification. In the same vein, focusing abroad on areas in which the group does not have expertise at home also results in higher risk. |
| Keywords: | risk, global banking, bank complexity, diversification benefits |
| JEL: | F21 F23 G21 G32 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bde:wpaper:2132&r= |
| By: | Henrekson, Magnus (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN)); Stenkula, Mikael (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN)) |
| Abstract: | William J. Baumol was one of the most prolific economists of his generation, analyzing a broad range of central economic issues addressing real problems of the world. In this essay, we present and critically evaluate Baumol’s research contributions in entrepreneurship economics and point to areas for future research. Baumol contributed an impressive number of important insights, increasing our understanding of entrepreneurship from both a macro and a micro perspective. He also devoted a large part of his writings to discussing public policy, linking his theoretical insights with policy issues in practice. His analyses are rooted in contemporary mainstream neoclassical economics, and one of his main objectives was to integrate the entrepreneur into this tradition. Today, Baumol is best known for his tripartite distinction between productive, unproductive, and destructive entrepreneurship and his associated idea that the institutional framework, “the rules of the game,” will determine how entrepreneurs allocate their time and effort across different—productive or unproductive—activities. An institutional environment that encourages productive entrepreneurship and spontaneous experimentation while disincentivizing unproductive activities becomes, through this insightful lens, the driving force of economic growth. As an economist, Baumol was knowledgeable and well acquainted with earlier scholars and their writings about entrepreneurship. Baumol’s writings were greatly inspired by Joseph Schumpeter’s views on entrepreneurship, and he made several attempts to formalize Schumpeter’s concept of the innovative entrepreneur. Baumol was in all senses an innovative contributor to entrepreneurship economics. His work has inspired the research community of entrepreneurship scholars, but like all great scientists, he also encountered criticism. |
| Keywords: | Entrepreneurship; Innovation; Institutions; Rent seeking |
| JEL: | B41 D02 J48 L26 L53 O31 Z10 |
| Date: | 2021–09–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:iuiwop:1403&r= |
| By: | Italo Colantone; Gianmarco Ottaviano; Piero Stanig |
| Abstract: | We review the literature on the globalization backlash, seen as the political shift of voters and parties in a protectionist and isolationist direction, with substantive implications on governments’ leaning and enacted policies. Using newly assembled data for 23 advanced democracies, we document a protectionist and isolationist shift in electorates, legislatures, and executives from the mid-1990s onwards. This is associated with a noticeable protectionist shift in trade policy –although with some notable nuances– especially since the financial crisis of 2008. We discuss the economics of the backlash. From a theoretical perspective, we highlight how the backlash may arise within standard trade models when taking into account the ‘social footprint’ of globalization. Then, we review the empirical literature on the drivers of the backlash. Two main messages emerge from our analysis: (1) globalization is a significant driver of the backlash, by means of the distributional consequences entailed by rising trade exposure; yet (2) the backlash is only partly determined by trade. Technological change, crisis-driven fiscal austerity, immigration, and cultural concerns are found to play an important role in creating politically consequential cleavages. Looking ahead, we discuss possible future developments, with specific focus on the issue of social mobility |
| Keywords: | Globalization, Social Footprint, Backlash |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:baf:cbafwp:cbafwp20165&r= |
| By: | W. Addessi; M. Delogu |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we study the optimal labor income taxation to finance infrastructure in developing countries characterized by high informality. We show that the presence of labor market segmentation, induced by a binding minimum wage, affects the optimal level of taxation/infrastructure and influences how the economy reacts to policy changes in terms of both the size of the informal sector and the income distribution among high- and low- skilled workers. |
| Keywords: | Infrastructure;Informality;Optimal Taxation;Development |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cns:cnscwp:202103&r= |
| By: | L. DeBenedictis; V. Licio; AM. Pinna |
| Abstract: | An integrated and widespread road system, like the one built during the Roman Empire in Italy, plays an important role today in facilitating the construction of new infrastructure. It first influenced the growth of cities, regardless of the variety of historical paths after the fall of the Roman Empire and before the unification of the country. Through this channel Roman roads have been the main determinant of both motorways and railways in the country. Even the Italian North-South divide can be ascribed, among other factors, to the way the ancient infrastructure had an influence on the modern one. |
| Keywords: | Roman roads;Railways;Provinces;Motorways;Long-term effects of history;italy |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cns:cnscwp:202102&r= |
| By: | Mikhail Miklyaev (Department of Economics Queens University, Canada and Cambridge Resources International Inc.); Richard Barichello (Food and Resource Economics, University of British Columbia); Katarzyna Pankowska (Independent Consultant) |
| Abstract: | Maize and wheat are the most important staple crops grown and consumed domestically in Ethiopia. With Ethiopia being the third-largest producer of maize in Africa, maize yields are relatively high compared with those of other East African producers but low compared to those other major maize producers in Africa and Asia. Domestically produced wheat is generally grown on smallholder farms, with majority being reserved for on-farm use. The biggest current challenge in terms of improved maize and wheat seeds in Ethiopia is the scaling-up of production and discrimination of high yielding hybrid maize verities and rust-resistant wheat varieties. Other major challenges to increasing the quantity of maize and wheat marketed in Ethiopia is losses due to poor post-harvest management and storage conditions. Using the cost-benefit approach of the integrated investment appraisal, this project aims to increase the availability of improved maize varieties, particularly of high-yield hybrids; improved storage facilities for cooperatives and unions to reduce postharvest losses; professionalization training, capacity building, and business-plan development for cooperatives and Farmers’ Cooperative Unions. This is done by integrating the financial, economic, stakeholder, and risk outcomes of the Ethiopian cereal value chain. |
| Keywords: | agriculture, production, improved seeds, maize value chain |
| JEL: | D61 Q2 Q13 |
| Date: | 2021–08–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qed:dpaper:4580&r= |
| By: | Zsolt Darvas; Guntram B. Wolff |
| Abstract: | This paper was prepared for the informal ECOFIN meeting in Ljubljana on 10/11 September 2021. The authors thank Klaas Lenaerts for his excellent research assistance and colleagues at Bruegel (Grégory Claeys, Maria Demertzis, André Sapir, Jean Pisani-Ferry and Simone Tagliapietra) for their feedback and suggestions. The additional public investment need required to meet the European Union’s climate goals is between 0.5 percent and 1 percent of GDP annually during this... |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bre:polcon:44540&r= |