|
on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Saidkarimova Saodat Saidkamalovna |
| Abstract: | In this article is explained main trends attracting foreign investments into the economy of Uzbekistan, also analyzed dynamics of the influence of investments in fixed assets on the development of the economy and social sphere of the Republic of Uzbekistan Key Words: Investment climate, attracting foreign investments, indicators, financing, enterprise, development, growth, projects, assets, compare, economy, results. Policy |
| Date: | 2020–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vor:issues:2020-36-07&r=all |
| By: | , AISDL |
| Abstract: | Until French colonization in the mid-19th century, Vietnam's economy was uniformly agrarian, subsistence, and village-oriented. French colonizers, however, deliberately developed the regions differently, designating the South for agricultural production and the North for manufacturing. |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:3bgwq&r=all |
| By: | Georg Graetz |
| Abstract: | Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, technological change has led to the automation of existing tasks and the creation of new ones, as well as the reallocation of labor across occupations and industries. These processes have been costly to individual workers, but labor demand has remained strong, and real wages have steadily increased in line with productivity growth. I provide evidence suggesting, however, that in recent decades automation has outpaced the creation of new tasks and thus the demand for labor has declined. There is strong disagreement about the future of labor demand, and predictions about technological breakthroughs have a poor track record. Given the importance of overall labor demand for workers' standard of living as well as their ability to adjust to a changing labor market, obtaining accurate forecasts should be a priority for policy makers. |
| Keywords: | automation, labor demand, labor share, technology, wages |
| JEL: | J23 O33 |
| Date: | 2020–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp1683&r=all |
| By: | Linh, Nguyen Thi |
| Abstract: | For these young businesses, one of the main barriers in the startup culture in Vietnam is Confucian ideology. The main idea of Confucianism is to respect the hierarchy. The cultural facets of a Confucian society like Vietnam change very slowly, with its salient features continuing to be present in every corner of life. |
| Date: | 2020–12–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:8hfvj&r=all |
| By: | Mesias Alfeus; Christina Sklibosios Nikitopoulos (Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology Sydney) |
| Abstract: | Commodity is one of the most volatile markets and forecasting its volatility is an issue of paramount importance. We study the dynamics of the commodity markets volatility by employing fractional stochastic volatility and heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) models. Based on a high-frequency futures price dataset of 22 commodities, we confirm that the volatility of commodity markets is rough and volatility components over different horizons are economically and statistically significant. Long memory with anti-persistence is evident across all commodities, with weekly volatility dominating in most commodity markets and daily volatility for oil and gold markets. HAR models display a clear advantage in forecasting performance compared to fractional volatility models. |
| Keywords: | commodity markets; realized volatility; fractional Brownian motion; HAR; volatility forecast |
| JEL: | C20 C53 C58 G13 Q02 |
| Date: | 2020–12–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uts:rpaper:415&r=all |
| By: | Yongqiang Meng (Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne); Dehua Shen (College of Management and Economics - Tianjin University); Xiong Xiong (College of Management and Economics - Tianjin University); Jorgen Vitting Andersen (Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the relations between multiple measures of investor sentiment and the returns, volatility, trading volume, and liquidity. Using both data outside and inside market, we find that the Bullishness from socio-finance model are significant related to future realized volatility and trading volume, similar to Tweet, which is thought to capture information of well-informed investors in Bitcoin market |
| Keywords: | socio-finance; sentiments; complex systems |
| JEL: | G4 G40 |
| Date: | 2020–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mse:cesdoc:20031&r=all |
| By: | Advani, Arun (University of Warwick, CAGE, and IFS) |
| Abstract: | We use administrative tax data from audits of self-assessment tax returns to understand what types individuals are most likely to be non-compliant. Non-compliance is common, with one-third of taxpayers underpaying by some amount, although half of aggregate under-reporting is done by just 2% of taxpayers. Third party reporting reduces non-compliance, while working in a cash-prevalent industry increases it. However, compliance also varies significantly with individual characteristics: non-compliance is higher for men and younger people. These results matter for measuring inequality, for understanding taxpayer behaviour, and for targeting audit resources. |
| Keywords: | JEL Classification: |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:530&r=all |
| By: | W. A Bauer; R. S Craig; José Garrido; Kenneth H Kang; Kenichiro Kashiwase; Sun-Bin Kim; Yun Liu; Sohrab Rafiq |
| Abstract: | The Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) triggered a sharp contraction of economic activity across Asia and the Pacific. Policymakers adopted a “whatever it takes” approach in their initial response, relying mainly on liquidity support to help firms survive the shock. This paper discusses how the initial policy response should evolve as the region’s economies stabilize and enter the recovery phase. Many firms will need to repair their balance sheets and adjust their business models to the post-pandemic realities. The priority will be to support this process by facilitating the efficient restructuring of viable firms while allowing nonviable firms to exit. This requires action on three complementary fronts: reinforcing private debt resolution frameworks to flatten the insolvency curve, ensuring that adequate financing is available to support corporate restructuring, and facilitating access to equity to speed up the reallocation of jobs and capital into growth sectors. |
| Date: | 2021–01–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2021/016&r=all |
| By: | Quarm, Richmond Sam; Busharads, Mohamed Osman Elamin; Institute of Research, Asian |
| Abstract: | The aim of this paper is to explore the reasons of gold price volatility. It analyses the information function of the gold future market by open interest contracts as speculation effect, and further fundamental factors including inflation, Chinese yuan per dollar, Japanese yen per dollar, dollar per euro, interest rate, oil price, and stock price, in the short-run. The study proceeds to build a Dynamic OLS model for long-run equilibrium to produce reliable gold price forecasts using the following variables: gold demand, gold supply, inflation, USD/SDR exchange rate, speculation, interest rate, oil price, and stock prices. Findings prove that in the short-run, changes in gold price does granger cause changes in open interest, and changes in Japanese yen per dollar does granger cause changes in gold price. However, in the long-run, the results prove that gold demand, gold supply, USD/SDR exchange rate, inflation, speculation, interest rate, and oil price are associated in a long-run relationship. |
| Date: | 2020–12–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:u5mz6&r=all |
| By: | Carine Meyimdjui; Jean-Louis Combes |
| Abstract: | This paper studies whether fiscal policy plays a stabilizing role in the context of import food price shocks. More precisely, the paper assesses whether fiscal policy dampens the adverse effect of import food price shocks on household consumption. Based on a panel of 70 low and middle-income countries over the period 1980-2012, the paper finds that import price shocks negatively and significantly affect household consumption, but this effect appears to be mitigated by discretionary government consumption, notably through government subsidies and transfers. The results are particularly robust for African countries and countries with less flexible exchange rate regimes. |
| Date: | 2021–01–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2021/012&r=all |
| By: | Jonathan Colmer; Dajun Lin; Siying Liu; Jay Shimshack |
| Abstract: | Conventional wisdom suggests that pollution damages are high in less-developed countries because they are highly polluted. Using administrative data on the universe of births and deaths, we explore the morbidity and mortality effects of gestational particulate matter exposure in high-pollution yet highly-developed Hong Kong. The effects of particulates on birthweight are large. We estimate no effect of particulates on neonatal mortality. We interpret our stark mortality results in a comparative analysis of pollution-mortality relationships across well-known studies. We provide evidence that mortality damages may be high in less-developed countries because they are less developed, not because they are more polluted. |
| Keywords: | Particulate Matter, Marginal Damages, Infant Health |
| JEL: | Q53 Q56 I15 |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp1702&r=all |
| By: | Patrick Blagrave |
| Abstract: | Co-movement (synchronicity) in inflation rates among a set of 13 emerging and developing countries in Asia is shown to be strongest for the food component, partly due to common rainfall shocks—a result which the paper terms the ‘monsoon effect.’ Economies with higher trade integration and co-movement in nominal effective exchange rates also experience greater food-inflation co-movement. By contrast, cross-country co-movement in core inflation is weak and the aforementioned determinants have little explanatory power, suggesting a prominent role for idiosyncratic domestic factors in driving core inflation. In the context of the growing literature on the globalization of inflation, these results suggest that common weather patterns are partly responsible for any role played by a so-called ‘global factor’ among inflation rates in emerging and developing economies, in Asia at least. |
| Keywords: | Inflation;Trade integration;Nominal effective exchange rate;Food prices;WP,moving average,Core CPI Inflation,dependent variable |
| Date: | 2019–07–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2019/147&r=all |
| By: | Christina Sklibosios Nikitopoulos (Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology Sydney); Alice Thomas (Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology Sydney); Jianxin Wang (Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology Sydney) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the role of daily volatility persistence in determining future volatility in energy markets. In crude oil and natural gas markets, the impact of returns and variances is primarily transmitted to future volatility via the daily volatility persistence. Macro-economic factors, such as the VIX, the credit spread and the Baltic exchange dirty index, also impact future volatility, but this impact is again channeled via the volatility persistence. The dependence of volatility persistence on macro-economic conditions is termed conditional volatility persistence (CVP). The variation in daily CVP is economically significant, contributing up to 17% of future volatility and accounting for 25% of the model's explanatory power. Inclusion of the CVP in the model significantly improves volatility forecasts. Based on the utility benefits of volatility forecasts, the CVP adjusted volatility models provide up to 160 bps benefit to investors compared to the HAR models, even after accounting for transaction costs and varying trading speeds. |
| Keywords: | Realized Volatility; Volatility Persistence; Energy Markets; HAR; Forecasting |
| JEL: | C22 C53 C58 Q40 |
| Date: | 2020–12–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uts:rpaper:417&r=all |
| By: | Baah A. Kusi (University of Ghana Business School, Ghana); Elikplimi K. Agbloyor (University of Ghana Business School, Ghana); Agyapomaa Gyeke-Dako (University of Ghana Business School, Ghana); Simplice A. Asongu (Yaoundé, Cameroon) |
| Abstract: | The study investigates how financial sector transparency moderates the influence of financial crises on bank market power across seventy-five economies between 2004 and 2014. Employing two-step dynamic system generalized method of moments the study shows that while public sector-led financial sector transparency reduces bank market power, private sector-led financial sector transparency promotes bank market power given that private sector-led transparency gives financial cost advantage to financially sound banks to solidify the market power and dominance. Similarly, while financial crises reduce the market power of banks implying that during financial crises banks lose their market power, financial sector transparency promotes the negative effect of financial crises on bank market power. This implies that during financial crises, financial sector transparency whether enforced through private or public sector, boosts the weakening effect of financial crises on bank market power. These findings imply that regulators can rely on financial transparency to tame bank market power to enhance banking competitiveness. The findings and results are consistent even when country, time and continental effects are controlled for. |
| Keywords: | Market Power; Bank; Financial Sector Transparency; Private Sector; Public Sector |
| Date: | 2020–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:abh:wpaper:20/087&r=all |
| By: | Le Bris, David |
| Abstract: | This paper links economic development to age-old family characteristics through the propensity to invest and thus increase human productivity. Inequality among siblings favors investment in physical capital, while a high status of women and strong parental authority favor investment in human capital. To test this theory, a family score is built according to the presence of these three characteristics in the traditional family type of each country. This family score as well as basic family characteristics are significantly associated with better economic outcomes (GDP per capita as well as proxies for investment in human and physical capital). These relationships are robust to other factors already identified as playing a role, such as geography, ethnic fractionalization, genetic diversity, religion, and formal institutions. Reverse causality is rejected by both historical anthropology and an instrumental investigation. |
| Keywords: | Economic development, Family model, Cultural Economics, Reversal of fortune |
| JEL: | N10 N30 N50 O10 O50 Z10 |
| Date: | 2020–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:105325&r=all |
| By: | Panda, Subhajit (Chandigarh University) |
| Abstract: | The purpose of the study is to examine the status of scholarly literature on Corona virus indexed in the big database, the Lens, taking into account, top-cited articles, top contributors, top active country region, most accepted study field and open access status. Relative growth rate (RGR) and Doubling time (Dt) calculation is also a major reflects of the paper. The study analyzes the status of scholarly publications on Corona virus research as indexed by Lens spanning a period from the oldest record until July 15, 2020. “Structured Search” was made under “New Scholar Search” using the term “Corona virus” and restrict the search result only for “Journal Article”. Results obtained were imported through email (.csv file) for further analysis and visualization using spreadsheet software. The results of the study show that out of total 26628 scholarly outputs 2109 are cited in a patent while 15963 in another scholarly literature. “The University of Hong Kong” is the most productive university with 412 scholarly literature, “The United States” as a most contributing country provides 8433 publications, “Journal of Virology” is the most contributing journal with 1012 publications, “Kwok-Yung Yuen” contributed maximum as an individual author and “Elsevier” as a top journal publisher. Among the Lens indexed scholarly publications on Corona virus, 64.04% obtained open accessibility in terms of open access colour while 64.09% under an open-access. No previous study could be identified dealing with such meta-analysis using the Lens database. |
| Date: | 2020–08–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:tkbc2&r=all |
| By: | Ni Zhan; Yijia Sun; Aman Jakhar; He Liu |
| Abstract: | We examine a variety of graphical models to construct optimal portfolios. Graphical models such as PCA-KMeans, autoencoders, dynamic clustering, and structural learning can capture the time varying patterns in the covariance matrix and allow the creation of an optimal and robust portfolio. We compared the resulting portfolios from the different models with baseline methods. In many cases our graphical strategies generated steadily increasing returns with low risk and outgrew the S&P 500 index. This work suggests that graphical models can effectively learn the temporal dependencies in time series data and are proved useful in asset management. |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2101.09214&r=all |
| By: | Quarm, Richmond Sam; Busharads, Mohamed Osman Elamin; Institute of Research, Asian |
| Abstract: | In conventional economics, two types of macroeconomic policy i.e. fiscal policy and monetary policy are used to streamline the business cycle. This paper has examined the cyclical behavior of these variables over the business cycle of Bangladesh. The objective of this examination is to show whether policies (fiscal policy and monetary policy) in Bangladesh are taken with a motive to stabilize the economy or only to promote economic growth. In other words, it has examined whether the policies in Bangladesh are procyclical or countercyclical or acyclical. Hodrick Prescott (HP) filter has been used to separate the cyclical component of considered variables. Both correlation and regression-based analysis have provided that in Bangladesh government expenditure and interest rates behave procyclically, but money supply behaves acyclically over the business cycle. Besides, this paper has tried to identify the long-term as well as the short-term relationship between real GDP and the macroeconomic policy variables with the help of the Johansen cointegration test, vector error correction model (VECM), and block exogeneity Wald test. Through these analyses, this study has found that fiscal policy has a significant impact on GDP growth both in the short-run and long-run. In the case of monetary policy, although the interest rate has an impact on real output both in the short-run and long-run, the money supply has neither a short-run nor long-run effect on output growth. |
| Date: | 2020–12–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:45fwz&r=all |
| By: | Sebastian Kr\"ugel; Matthias Uhl |
| Abstract: | Preferences often change -- even in short time intervals -- due to either the mere passage of time (present-biased preferences) or changes in environmental conditions (state-dependent preferences). On the basis of the empirical findings in the context of state-dependent preferences, we critically discuss the Aristotelian view of unitary decision makers in economics and urge a more Heraclitean perspective on human decision-making. We illustrate that the conceptualization of preferences as present-biased or state-dependent has very different normative implications under the Aristotelian view, although both concepts are empirically hard to distinguish. This is highly problematic, as it renders almost any paternalistic intervention justifiable. |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2101.12526&r=all |
| By: | Christopher Ardueser (University of the Incarnate Word, United States); Kruti Lehenbauer (University of the Incarnate Word, United States) |
| Abstract: | Utilizing research to identify an effective leader is essential for creating a strategic business operational leadership model. The purpose of this literature review is to focus on select objective and less objective traits of leadership among individuals who are in those positions. We explore literature on objective leadership traits such as gender, age, education level, and job satisfaction level and on the less objective traits such as integrity, energy level, and business knowledge, among others. The goal is to evaluate the hypothesis that some, if not all, of these traits contribute significantly to effective leadership by analyzing the available literature about traits of an effective leader. We will explore the theories that have been proposed on this subject in the literature, identify to what degree researchers have investigated these theories, and try to confirm which of these traits continue to significantly be related to successful leadership. The purpose of this paper is to generate a thorough literature review which can later provide a reliable platform for further qualitative, quantitative, or mixed-methods research to create standards that business practices can utilize as a model for leadership identification and integration. |
| Keywords: | Leadership Traits, Gender, Age, Education, Effectiveness |
| Date: | 2020–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:bpaper:021al&r=all |
| By: | Sudha Narayanan (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research); Sharada Srinivasan (University of Guelph) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents an overview of the state of young women farmers in India as they navigate livelihoods in a sector that faces severe challenges. Discussions of young women farmers in India often get lost in those focused on women farmers more generally and of youth in agriculture, whereas they are a distinct analytical and empirical category who merit attention. Besides being discriminated against compared to male youth, young women farmers are further likely more disadvantaged than their older female counterparts (in addition to their male peers) in terms of access to productive resources and are relatively more constrained as economic actors, even though they tend to have more formal schooling and access to information. We argue that knowledge of their challenges and circumstance is vital for the visibility and recognition of young women farmers as well as for sound, inclusive policies to support them. This is especially relevant in a context where non-farm opportunities for young men outstrip those available for young women. Towards this end, we draw on existing data and review literature to map the participation and situation of young women in agriculture in India. |
| Keywords: | young women farmers, youth, agriculture, farming, gender, India |
| JEL: | Q19 J13 J16 |
| Date: | 2020–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ind:igiwpp:2020-041&r=all |
| By: | Maxime Delabarre (Sciences Po - Sciences Po) |
| Abstract: | This essay argues that the common competition framework is not to be applied to the financial sector. If traditionally competition brings efficiency and diversity in a market, financial regulators must also ensure the stability of the financial market. Henceforth, some limits and entry barriers have to exist. This is particularly true for FinTech companies. If the potential of those new actors is not to be contested, the risk they can bring is also quite obvious. If regulators want the market to be disrupted and to see consumers benefiting from the power of innovation of technology-based companies, they need to adapt their regulatory framework. Only under this condition will the benefits outweigh the potential risks. |
| Keywords: | Financial regulations,financial stability,competition,financial market,innovation |
| Date: | 2021–01–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03107769&r=all |
| By: | Deon Van Tonder (North-West University, South Africa); Adri Du Toit (North-West University, South Africa) |
| Abstract: | Entrepreneurship education is vital to ameliorate the high youth unemployment rate in South Africa. As part of efforts to augment entrepreneurship education, purposeful teacher training is needed. Integral in this pursuit is the amendment and development of teachers’ entrepreneurial mindset. The concept of ‘mindset’ is, however, ambiguous, as literature uses this term interchangeably with concepts such as 21st century skills, soft skills, non-cognitive skills, or character strengths. When a new teacher training program for entrepreneurship education was being developed, it was necessary to investigate and analyze all these skills or characteristics, to ascertain which aspects should be included in the program to contribute to the entrepreneurial mindset that was envisioned for these teachers. An exploratory qualitative literature review was conducted from a constructivist point of view. Accessible literature on ‘entrepreneurship education’ and ‘entrepreneurial mindset’ was systematically and thematically analyzed to explore the contribution of various types of skills and characteristics to the construction of an entrepreneurial mindset, in preparation for entrepreneurship education. The findings revealed that several skills, characteristics and habits contribute to the development of positive entrepreneurial mindsets. These included several references to the ‘Habits of Mind’ proposed by Costa and Kallick (2008). Subsequent comprehensive analysis was conducted to explore the pertinence of the Habits of Mind for developing teachers’ entrepreneurial mindsets as part of their preparation to facilitate entrepreneurship education. A recommendation was made for the inclusion of all the Habits of Mind to contribute to fostering positive entrepreneurial mindsets as part of teacher training for entrepreneurship education. |
| Keywords: | 21st century skills, entrepreneurial mindset, entrepreneurship education, habits of mind, teacher training |
| Date: | 2020–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:bpaper:003dt&r=all |
| By: | Daeyung Gim; Hyungbin Park |
| Abstract: | This paper treats the Merton problem how to invest in safe assets and risky assets to maximize an investor's utility, given by investment opportunities modeled by a $d$-dimensional state process. The problem is represented by a partial differential equation with optimizing term: the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation. The main purpose of this paper is to solve partial differential equations derived from the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equations with a deep learning algorithm: the Deep Galerkin method, first suggested by Sirignano and Spiliopoulos (2018). We then apply the algorithm to get the solution of the PDE based on some model settings and compare with the one from the finite difference method. |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2101.12387&r=all |
| By: | Marie-Noëlle Woillez (IFREMER - Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer, AFD - Agence française de développement); Gaël Giraud (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, GU - Georgetown University [Washington], Chaire Energie & Prospérité - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - X - École polytechnique - ENSAE ParisTech - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - Institut Louis Bachelier); Antoine Godin (AFD - Agence française de développement, CEPN - Centre d'Economie de l'Université Paris Nord - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Université Sorbonne Paris Nord - USPC - Université Sorbonne Paris Cité - LABEX ICCA - UP13 - Université Paris 13 - Université Sorbonne Nouvelle - Paris 3 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UP - Université de Paris - Université Sorbonne Paris Nord) |
| Abstract: | Anthropogenic climate change raises growing concerns about its potential catastrophic impacts on both ecosystems and human societies. Yet, several studies on damage induced on the economy by unmitigated global warming have proposed a much less worrying picture of the future, with only a few points of decrease in the world gross domestic product (GDP) per capita by the end of the century, even for a global warming above 4 ∘C. We consider two different empirically estimated functions linking GDP growth or GDP level to temperature at the country level and apply them to a global cooling of 4 ∘C in 2100, corresponding to a return to glacial conditions. We show that the alleged impact on global average GDP per capita runs from −1.8 %, if temperature impacts GDP level, to +36 %, if the impact is rather on GDP growth. These results are then compared to the hypothetical environmental conditions faced by humanity, taking the Last Glacial Maximum as a reference. The modeled impacts on the world GDP appear strongly underestimated given the magnitude of climate and ecological changes recorded for that period. After discussing the weaknesses of the aggregated statistical approach to estimate economic damage, we conclude that, if these functions cannot reasonably be trusted for such a large cooling, they should not be considered to provide relevant information on potential damage in the case of a warming of similar magnitude, as projected in the case of unabated greenhouse gas emissions. |
| Date: | 2020–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03102681&r=all |
| By: | Anderson, Stephen J. (U of Texas at Austin); Iacovone, Leonardo (World Bank and Hertie School); Kankanhalli, Shreya (Stanford U); Narayanan, Sridhar (Stanford U) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the impact of business modernization on the sales performance of traditional retailers. We define modernization as adopting tangible structures and business practices of organized retail chains (for example, exterior signage with store name and logo, or a database to record product-level information) and adapting these to the practical conditions and constraints of traditional retailers such as small shop size. To address our research question, we implement a randomized field experiment in Mexico City with 1148 traditional retail firms. Our sample is randomized into three groups: 385 firms that we externally modernize in ways that are visible to customers; 383 firms that we internally modernize in ways that are not visible to customers; and 380 firms form a control group. We find a significant and persistent main effect of modernization on sales: firms in both treatment groups increase monthly sales by 15% to 19%, even 24 months after study recruitment. In terms of novel mechanism evidence, we find that externally-modernizing firms improve their store-level branding, while internally-modernizing firms strengthen their product management. These results have important implications for multinational managers who distribute products through traditional retail channels, and for policymakers interested in improving firm performance in the retail sector of emerging markets. |
| Date: | 2020–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:stabus:3920&r=all |
| By: | Alexander, L. Brown; Taisuke Imai; Ferdinand M. Vieider; Colin Camerer |
| Abstract: | Loss aversion is one of the most widely used concepts in behavioral economics. We conduct a large-scale interdisciplinary meta-analysis, to systematically accumulate knowledge from numerous empirical estimates of the loss aversion coefficient reported during the past couple of decades. We examine 607 empirical estimates of loss aversion from 150 articles in economics, psychology, neuroscience, and several other disciplines. Our analysis indicates that the mean loss aversion coefficient is between 1.8 and 2.1. We also document how reported estimates vary depending on the observable characteristics of the study design. |
| Keywords: | loss aversion, prospect theory, meta-analysis |
| JEL: | D81 D90 C90 C11 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_8848&r=all |
| By: | Douglas W. Diamond; Yunzhi Hu; Raghuram G. Rajan |
| Abstract: | We develop a theory of how corporate lending and financial intermediation change based on the fundamentals of the firm and its environment. We focus on the interaction between the prospective net worth or liquidity of an industry and the firm’s internal governance or pledgeability. Variations in prospective liquidity can induce changes in the nature, covenants, and quantity of loans that are made, the identity of the lender, and the extent to which the lender is leveraged. We offer predictions on how these might vary over the financial cycle. |
| JEL: | G2 G21 G23 G3 G32 G33 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28377&r=all |
| By: | Hanna Halaburda; Guillaume Haeringer; Joshua Gans; Neil Gandal |
| Abstract: | Since its launch in 2009 much has been written about Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies and blockchains. While the discussions initially took place mostly on blogs and other popular media, we now are witnessing the emergence of a growing body of rigorous academic research on these topics. By the nature of the phenomenon analyzed, this research spans many academic disciplines including macroeconomics, law and economics and computer science. This survey focuses on the microeconomics of cryptocurrencies themselves. What drives their supply, demand, trading price and competition amongst them. This literature has been emerging over the past decade and the purpose of this paper is to summarize its main findings so as to establish a base upon which future research can be conducted. |
| Keywords: | Bitcoin, blockchain, cryptocurrencies |
| JEL: | A10 D40 L00 O30 Y20 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_8841&r=all |
| By: | Majid Bazarbash |
| Abstract: | Recent advances in digital technology and big data have allowed FinTech (financial technology) lending to emerge as a potentially promising solution to reduce the cost of credit and increase financial inclusion. However, machine learning (ML) methods that lie at the heart of FinTech credit have remained largely a black box for the nontechnical audience. This paper contributes to the literature by discussing potential strengths and weaknesses of ML-based credit assessment through (1) presenting core ideas and the most common techniques in ML for the nontechnical audience; and (2) discussing the fundamental challenges in credit risk analysis. FinTech credit has the potential to enhance financial inclusion and outperform traditional credit scoring by (1) leveraging nontraditional data sources to improve the assessment of the borrower’s track record; (2) appraising collateral value; (3) forecasting income prospects; and (4) predicting changes in general conditions. However, because of the central role of data in ML-based analysis, data relevance should be ensured, especially in situations when a deep structural change occurs, when borrowers could counterfeit certain indicators, and when agency problems arising from information asymmetry could not be resolved. To avoid digital financial exclusion and redlining, variables that trigger discrimination should not be used to assess credit rating. |
| Keywords: | Credit risk;Credit;Credit ratings;Loans;Machine learning;WP,ML model,bears risk,machine learning technique,ML analysis,ML evaluation |
| Date: | 2019–05–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2019/109&r=all |
| By: | Barth, Erling (Institute for Social Research, Oslo); Finseraas, Henning (Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU)); Kjelsrud, Anders (University of Oslo); Moene, Karl Ove (University of Oslo) |
| Abstract: | Have recent trends in globalization changed the positive link between trade openness and social insurance? The consensus view - that voters want better social insurance against income loss the more open the economy - is seemingly contested by the rise of populism and the China shock. We present a theoretical framework of risk and income effects of globalization that captures the conventional view, but also shows when it will be modified: When the income effect is negative, the political support for social insurance can decline in spite of the risk effect. We construct an empirical measure of welfare state support across European regions and leverage the rapid integration of China into the world economy to show that higher import competition reduces the support for social insurance. Consistent with our framework, we decompose the overall effect of the shock into a (weak) positive risk effect and a (strong) negative income effect. |
| Keywords: | regional labor demand, welfare state support, social insurance, China shock, trade exposure |
| JEL: | J21 J23 H55 F16 F6 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14063&r=all |
| By: | Jackie Shen |
| Abstract: | This editorial article partially informs the algorithmic trading community about launching of the new journal "Algorithmic Trading and Controls" (ATC). ATC is an online open-access journal that publishes novel works on algorithmic trading and its control methodologies. In this inaugural article, we discuss nine major challenges that contemporary Algo trading faces. There is nothing superstitiously magical about the number "nine," but so is any other one. Several of these challenges are at the strategy level, including for example, trading of illiquid securities or optimal portfolio execution. Others are more at the level of risk management and controls, such as on how to develop automated controls, testing and simulations. The editorial views could be inevitably personal and biased, but have been explored with the most innocent intention of contributing to this important field in modern financial services and technologies. |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2101.08813&r=all |
| By: | Michele Cantarella (University of Modena and Reggio Emilia and University of Helsinki); Nicolò Fraccaroli (Università di Roma "Tor Vergata"); Roberto Volpe (LUISS Guido Carli) |
| Abstract: | We study the impact of fake news on votes for populist parties in the Italian elections of 2018. Our empirical strategy exploits the presence of Italian- and German-speaking voters in the Italian region of Trentino Alto-Adige/Südtirol as an exogenous source of assignment to fake news exposure. Using municipal data, we compare the effect of exposure to fake news on the vote for populist parties in the 2013 and 2018 elections. To do so, we introduce a novel indicator of populism using text mining on the Facebook posts of Italian parties before the elections. We find that exposure to fake news is positively correlated with vote for populist parties, but that less than half of this correlation is causal. Our findings support the view that exposure to fake news (i) favours populist parties, but also that (ii) it is positively correlated with prior support for populist parties, suggesting a self-selection mechanism. |
| Keywords: | Fake News, Political Economy, Electoral Outcomes, Populism |
| JEL: | C26 D72 P16 |
| Date: | 2020–06–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rtv:ceisrp:493&r=all |
| By: | Ankit Kalda; Benjamin Loos; Alessandro Previtero; Andreas Hackethal |
| Abstract: | Using transaction-level data from two German banks, we study the effects of smartphones on investor behavior. Comparing trades by the same investor in the same month across different platforms, we find that smartphones increase purchasing of riskier and lottery-type assets and chasing past returns. After the adoption of smartphones, investors do not substitute trades across platforms and buy also riskier, lottery-type, and hot investments on other platforms. Using smartphones to trade specific assets or during specific hours contributes to explain our results. Digital nudges and the device screen size do not mechanically drive our results. Smartphone effects are not transitory. |
| JEL: | G11 G40 G50 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28363&r=all |
| By: | Kazuyuki Sasakura (Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda Universi) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides a simple example of the utility function with two consumption goods which can be calculated by hand to produce a Giffen good. It is based on the theoretical result by Kubler, Selden, and Wei (2013). Using a model of portfolio selection with a risk-free asset and a risky asset, they showed that the risk-free asset becomes a Giffen good if the utility belongs to the HARA family. This paper investigates their result further in a usual microeconomic setting, and derives the conditions for one of the consumption goods to be a Giffen good from a broader perspective. |
| Keywords: | HARA family; Decreasing relative risk aversion; Giffen good; Slutsky equation; Ratio effect |
| JEL: | D11 D01 G11 |
| Date: | 2019–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wap:wpaper:1908&r=all |
| By: | Daniel Felix Ahelegbey (University of Pavia); |
| Abstract: | We construct a new index of global equity market risk (EMR) using market interconnectedness and volatilities. We study the relationship between our EMR and the VIX over the last two decades. The EMR is shown to be a novel approach to measuring global market risk, and an alternative to the VIX. Using data of 20 major stock markets, including G10 economies, we find spikes in our EMR index during the dotcom bubble, the global financial crisis, the European sovereign debt crisis, and the novel coronavirus pandemic. The result shows that the global financial crisis and the Covid-19 induced crisis record the historic highest spikes in financial market risk, suggesting stronger evidence of contagion in both periods. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19, Financial Crises, Financial Markets, Market Risk, Mahalanobis Distance, Volatility Index. |
| JEL: | C11 C15 C51 C52 C55 C58 G01 G12 |
| Date: | 2020–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pav:demwpp:demwp0194&r=all |
| By: | Jérôme Lelong (DAO - Données, Apprentissage et Optimisation - LJK - Laboratoire Jean Kuntzmann - Inria - Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes); Zineb El Filali Ech-Chafiq (Natixis Asset Management, DAO - Données, Apprentissage et Optimisation - LJK - Laboratoire Jean Kuntzmann - Inria - Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes); Adil Reghai (Natixis Asset Management) |
| Abstract: | Many pricing problems boil down to the computation of a high dimensional integral, which is usually estimated using Monte Carlo. In fact, the accuracy of a Monte Carlo estimator with M simulations is given by σ √ M. Meaning that its convergence is immune to the dimension of the problem. However, this convergence can be relatively slow depending on the variance σ of the function to be integrated. To resolve such a problem, one would perform some variance reduction techniques such as importance sampling, stratification, or control variates. In this paper, we will study two approaches for improving the convergence of Monte Carlo using Neural Networks. The first approach relies on the fact that many high dimensional financial problems are of low effective dimensions[15]. We expose a method to reduce the dimension of such problems in order to keep only the necessary variables. The integration can then be done using fast numerical integration techniques such as Gaussian quadrature. The second approach consists in building an automatic control variate using neural networks. We learn the function to be integrated (which incorporates the diffusion model plus the payoff function) in order to build a network that is highly correlated to it. As the network that we use can be integrated exactly, we can use it as a control variate. |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02891798&r=all |
| By: | Briscese, Guglielmo (University of Chicago); Feltovich, Nick (Monash University); Slonim, Robert (University of Sydney) |
| Abstract: | Firms can donate a share of profits to charity as a form of corporate social responsibility (CSR). Recent experiments have found that such initiatives can induce higher effort by workers, generating benefits for both sides of the labour market. We design a novel version of the gift-exchange game to account for self-selection, and find that wages remain the most effective incentive to attract and motivate workers, with corporate donations playing a smaller role than previously suggested. We also show that firms substitute donations to charity with lower wage offers, keeping their profits constant but reducing workers' earnings. Initiatives of corporate philanthropy can thus be marginally beneficial for firms, but considerably costly for workers. |
| Keywords: | gift exchange, reciprocity, corporate philanthropy, self-selection |
| JEL: | D64 C91 M52 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14067&r=all |
| By: | Bary Pradelski (POLARIS - Performance analysis and optimization of LARge Infrastructures and Systems - LIG - Laboratoire d'Informatique de Grenoble - UJF - Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 - UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble 2 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INPG - Institut National Polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - Inria Grenoble - Rhône-Alpes - Inria - Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique); Heinrich Nax |
| Abstract: | In two-sided markets with transferable utility ('assignment games'), we study the dynamics of trade arrangements and price adjustments as agents from the two market sides stochastically match, break up, and re-match in their pursuit of better opportunities. The underlying model of individual adjustments is based on the behavioral theories of adaptive learning and aspiration adjustment. Dynamics induced by this model converge to approximately optimal and stable market outcomes, but this convergence may be (exponentially) slow. We introduce the notion of a 'market sentiment' that governs which of the two market sides is temporarily more or less amenable to price adjustments, and show that such a feature may significantly speed up convergence. |
| Keywords: | market psychology,convergence time,matching markets,assignment games,core,evolutionary game theory |
| Date: | 2020–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03100116&r=all |
| By: | Gade, Dipak S.; Aithal, Sreeramana |
| Abstract: | Smart Cities are well planned, designed, and established keeping in mind the growing need of citizens in search of better livelihood. Technology has played a big role in equipping Smart Cities to offer better facilities to its citizens in terms of better living comfort, better atmosphere, better surrounding, better medical facilities, and most importantly ease of doing business, office, and day to day activities. While doing so, IT Infrastructure and online transactions have influenced all the operational processes of Smart Cities and almost acting as its backbone. Obviously, any adverse impact on online transactions can create chaos in Smart City operations. To address this concern, a safe and reliable online transaction is a must. In this paper, we have discussed Blockchain Technology-based solutions for Smart Cities and their potential impact on Smart Cities Development. We specifically tried to address the concern of how Smart City online operational processes for various applications can be made reliable and safe by using Blockchain Technology and how this technology can benefit Smart Cities overall development. Based on the comprehensive research and detailed literature review, we proposed Blockchain Technology based secure framework for Smart Cities. We also identified various applications and process areas that can be highly benefited by using Blockchain Technology and can make these applications smarter and more reliable and fit for use for any Smart City. |
| Keywords: | Blockchain, Smart city, Smart contracts, Secure framework, Distributed ledger |
| JEL: | M1 M15 O2 O21 O22 O4 R0 R5 R58 |
| Date: | 2020–12–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:105351&r=all |
| By: | Javier Gonzalez-Conde; \'Angel Rodr\'iguez-Rozas; Enrique Solano; Mikel Sanz |
| Abstract: | Pricing financial derivatives, in particular European-style options at different time-maturities and strikes, is a relevant financial problem. The dynamics describing the price of vanilla options when constant volatilities and interest rates are assumed, is governed by the Black-Scholes model, a linear parabolic partial differential equation with terminal value given by the pay-off of the option contract and no additional boundary conditions. Here, we present a digital quantum algorithm to solve Black-Scholes equation on a quantum computer for a wide range of relevant financial parameters by mapping it to the Schr\"odinger equation. The non-Hermitian nature of the resulting Hamiltonian is solved by embedding the dynamics into an enlarged Hilbert space, which makes use of only one additional ancillary qubit. Moreover, we employ a second ancillary qubit to transform initial condition into periodic boundary conditions, which substantially improves the stability and performance of the protocol. This algorithm shows a feasible approach for pricing financial derivatives on a digital quantum computer based on Hamiltonian simulation, technique which differs from those based on Monte Carlo simulations to solve the stochastic counterpart of the Black Scholes equation. Our algorithm remarkably provides an exponential speedup since the terms in the Hamiltonian can be truncated by a polynomial number of interactions while keeping the error bounded. We report expected accuracy levels comparable to classical numerical algorithms by using 10 qubits and 94 entangling gates on a fault-tolerant quantum computer, and an expected success probability of the post-selection procedure due to the embedding protocol above 60\%. |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2101.04023&r=all |
| By: | Ritabrata Bose (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research); K.V. Ramaswamy (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research) |
| Abstract: | A variety of mechanisms linking globalization and margins of adjustments in the labour markets have been empirically tested in recent years. How globalization could affect workforce composition of industries and thereby the quality of jobs, a key labour market indicator is much less studied and the econometric evidence is sparse. This study contributes to filling the gap by studying India's formal manufacturing sector that experienced deep trade and industrial reforms since the 1990s. Industrylevel panel data are analysed to establish the indirect link between product market structure (concentration) and workforce composition of firms (usage of contract workers). We explicitly measure changes in market concentration using a newly constructed trade-adjusted concentration ratio, profitability (price-cost mark-up) and workforce composition (usage of contract workers) to show how the effect of globalization is mediated indirectly through the product market structure. Our sample includes 46 three-digit formal manufacturing industries spanning from 1998 to 2014. The findings provide significant evidence that Indian manufacturing firms responded to globalization by hiring relatively more contract workers a key margin of labour market flexibility. This finding underlines the importance of understanding the indirect ways in which globalization could affect labour market conditions and workers welfare in developing countries. |
| Keywords: | market concentration, price cost mark-up, contract labour, globalisation |
| JEL: | D22 F60 F66 F16 D22 L16 |
| Date: | 2020–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ind:igiwpp:2020-036&r=all |
| By: | Phillipe Aghion; Roland Bénabou; Ralf Martin; Alexandra Roulet |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the joint effect of consumers' environmental concerns and product-market competition on firms' decisions whether to innovate "clean" or "dirty". We first develop a step-by-step innovation model to capture the basic intuition that socially responsible consumers induce firms to escape competition by pursuing greener innovations. To test and quantify the theory, we bring together patent data, survey data on environmental values, and competition measures. Using a panel of 8,562 firms from the automobile sector that patented in 42 countries between 1998 and 2012, we indeed find that greater exposure to environmental attitudes has a significant positive effect on the probability for a firm to innovate in the clean direction, and all the more so the higher the degree of product market competition. Results suggest that the combination of historically realistic increases in prosocial attitudes and product market competition can have the same effect on green innovation as major increase in fuel prices. |
| Keywords: | environment, product market competition, innovation |
| Date: | 2020–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp1684&r=all |