|
on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Richard J. Martin |
| Abstract: | We give a complete description of the third-moment (skewness) characteristics of both linear and nonlinear momentum trading strategies, the latter being understood as transformations of a normalised moving-average filter (EMA). We explain in detail why the skewness is generally positive and has a term structure. This paper is a synthesis of two papers published by the author in RISK in 2012, with some updates and comments. |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2101.01006&r=all |
| By: | Menon, Purnima; Avula, Rasmi; Sarswat, Esha; Mani, Sneha; Jangid, Manita |
| Abstract: | Data systems and their usage are of great significance in the process of tracking malnutrition and improving programs. The key elements of a data system for nutrition include (1) data sources such as survey and administrative data and implementation research, (2) systems and processes for data use, and (3) data stewardship across a data value chain. The nutrition data value chain includes the prioritization of indicators, data collection, curation, analysis, and translation to policy and program recommendations and evidence based decisions. Finding the right fit for nutrition information systems is important and must include neither too little nor too much data; finding the data system that is the right fit for multiple decision makers is a big challenge. Developed together with NITI Aayog, this document covers issues that need to be considered in the strengthening of efforts to improve the availability and use of data generated through the work of POSHAN Abhiyaan, India’s National Nutrition Mission. The paper provides guidance for national-, state-, and district-level government officials and stakeholders regarding the use of data to track progress on nutrition interventions, immediate and underlying determinants, and outcomes. It examines the availability of data across a range of interventions in the POSHAN Abhiyaan framework, including population-based surveys and administrative data systems; it then makes recommendations for the improvement of data availability and use. To improve monitoring and data use, this document focuses on three questions: what types of indicators should be used; what types of data sources can be used; and with what frequency should progress on different indicator domains be assessed. |
| Keywords: | INDIA, SOUTH ASIA, ASIA, malnutrition, data, programmes, nutrition |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:poshrs:12&r=all |
| By: | Sulistiadi Dono Iskandar (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Faradina Alifia Maizar (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)) |
| Abstract: | Despite many advantages of women’s higher role in literature, GoI seems to lack commitment in addressing women empowerment issues as their priority agenda. Having more empowered women in our society becomes more salient as several studies suggest that it will lead to better financial outcomes such as saving in the household. In the era of the COVID-19 pandemic, where one could lose their source of income easily due to social restriction, having a society with a higher saving level is essential. By exploiting three waves (2000, 2007, 2014) of Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS) data and employing Fixed-Effect panel data analysis, this study found that a limited increase in the role of a wife in the household’s financial decision-making process will lead to a higher level of saving outcome, thus provide more resilience society toward the pandemic situation. |
| Keywords: | household savings — women’s bargaining power — intra-household decision-making — COVID-19 — Indonesia |
| JEL: | D13 D14 J16 C70 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lpe:wpaper:202055&r=all |
| By: | Ş. Pelin Akyol; Naci H. Mocan |
| Abstract: | At least one of every five marriages is consanguineous (between couples who are second cousins or closer) in the Middle East and North Africa, and the rate is higher than 50 percent in some parts of the world. Consanguineous marriage generates serious health problems for the offspring and constitutes an economic problem with its associated medical costs and the impact on human capital. The prevalence of consanguineous marriage can shape various dimensions of the society ranging from institutional structure to attitudes such as trust, individualism, and nepotism. Using data from Turkey and leveraging an education reform which increased mandatory schooling by three years, we find that the reform made women less likely to find consanguineous marriage as an acceptable practice, and that the reform reduced women’s propensity to marry a first cousin or a blood relative. Exposure to the reform altered women’s preferences in favor of personal autonomy. Women who are exposed to the reform are more likely to have met their husbands outside of family networks, they are less likely to get forced into marriage against their consent, and they are less likely to agree that only a son can ensure the continuation of the family blood line. These results indicate that educational attainment can alter behaviors and attitudes which may be rooted in culture. |
| JEL: | I15 I18 I20 J10 Z1 |
| Date: | 2020–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28212&r=all |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Finance and Financial Sector Development - Finance and Development Finance and Financial Sector Development - Financial Literacy Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Consumption |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:33495&r=all |
| By: | Serdengecti, Suleyman; Sensoy, Ahmet; Nguyen, Duc Khuong |
| Abstract: | We investigate the dynamics of return and liquidity (co)jumps for three of the most traded emerging market currencies vis-à-vis US dollar. We find that an increase in the average bid-ask spread significantly reduces the duration between consecutive return jumps, while liquidity and volatility only play a partial role on the duration between consecutive liquidity jumps and return-liquidity cojumps. There is also evidence of vicious return-liquidity spirals in views of the positive contemporaneous impact of liquidity jumps on volatility and return jumps on the bid-ask spread. Moreover, scheduled macroeconomic news and central bank announcements increase the likelihood of both return and liquidity (co)jumps. Finally, jump adjusted high frequency FX trading strategies are shown to have superior performance over the buy-and-hold strategy. |
| Keywords: | Exchange rates, jumps, cojumps, emerging markets, market microstructure |
| JEL: | C1 F3 G1 |
| Date: | 2020–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:105162&r=all |
| By: | James, Liam |
| Abstract: | Marketing has become a big obstacle for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) around the world due to high prices. The conventional marketing communication mechanism, such as television, radio, etc., appears to have a high cost at which it does not even satisfy the intended customers and therefore does not produce the desired result. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of digital marketing on the growth of SMEs in South Asia. Several digital marketing channels, such as email marketing, social media, web advertising, etc., were used to achieve this, while the notion of growth was measured in terms of revenue and market share. Therefore, questionnaires were formulated and administered through an online platform and replied to 47 of the 50 respondents distributed by the questionnaire, providing a response rate of 93.00 percent. The population was composed of clients and employees of Faheem Hayder Dealzmag as well as employers. |
| Keywords: | SMES, South Asia, Digital marketing, Email Marketing, Social media |
| JEL: | M00 |
| Date: | 2020–01–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:105156&r=all |
| By: | Becker, Sascha O (Monash U and U Warwick, CAGE, CEPR, CESifo, Ifo, IZA and ROA); Won, Cheongyeon (Monash Business School) |
| Abstract: | In the mid 19th century, pre-colonial Korea under the Joseon dynasty was increasingly isolated and lagging behind in its economic development. Joseon Korea was forced to sign unequal treaties with foreign powers as a result of which Christian missionaries entered the country and contributed to the establishment of private schools. We show that areas with a larger presence of Christians have higher literacy rates in 1930, during the Japanese colonial period. We also show that a higher number of Protestants is associated with higher female literacy, consistent with a stronger emphasis on female education in Protestant denominations. |
| Keywords: | Literacy ; Religion ; Missionaries ; Gender gap ; Korea. JEL Classification: I21 ; N35 ; Z12 ; J16. |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:1322&r=all |
| By: | Hao Jiang; Dimitri Vayanos; Lu Zheng |
| Abstract: | We show theoretically and empirically that flows into index funds raise the prices of large stocks in the index disproportionately more than the prices of small stocks. Conversely, flows predict a high future return of the small-minus-large index portfolio. This finding runs counter to the CAPM, and arises when noise traders distort prices, biasing index weights. When funds tracking value-weighted indices experience inflows, they buy mainly stocks in high noise-trader demand, exacerbating the distortion. During our sample period 2000-2019, a small-minus-large portfolio of S&P500 stocks earns ten percent per year, while no size effect exists for non-index stocks. |
| JEL: | G1 G2 |
| Date: | 2020–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28253&r=all |
| By: | Mahir Suleymanov (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Opletalova 26, 110 00, Prague, Czech Republic) |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to analyze the role of FDI inflow in the Russian economy and determine the degree of impact on the economic growth rate. The empirical research captures 2000-2019 years specifying by quarterly time-series. Although, in general, it is considered that the FDI can transmit technology and development to the host country, but this paper shows that in the case of Russia, the role of FDI inflow into the country has an endogenous component, which does not exert a robust impact on the economic growth. |
| Keywords: | Foreign Direct Investment, economic growth, transition economies, Endogeneity |
| JEL: | F21 F43 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2021_01&r=all |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Health, Nutrition and Population - Health Insurance Poverty Reduction - Employment and Shared Growth Social Protections and Labor - Pensions & Retirement Systems Social Protections and Labor - Social Protections & Assistance |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:33918&r=all |
| By: | Piracha, Matloob; Tani, Massimiliano; Cheng, Zhiming; Wang, Ben Zhe |
| Abstract: | The objective of this paper is to analyse how immigrants' ethnic identity correlates with their labour market outcomes. More precisely, we estimate the role of ethnic identity in employment, wages, under-employment (i.e., they would prefer to work more hours but are not given the opportunity), three measures of job satisfaction, overeducation and wages. We further explore whether economic downturn has a differentiated impact on our measures. Using Australian longitudinal data, we find that ethnic identity strongly is associated with employment and wages as well a number of job satisfaction measures. We then split our data and repeat the estimations for before and after the Great Financial Crisis of 2008-09. We find important differences in the way ethnic identity is associated with different measures of labour market outcomes under different economic conditions. Finally, we explore the mechanisms through which some of results could be explained. |
| Keywords: | Ethnic Identity,Assimilation,Employment,Wages,Job Quality,Overeducation |
| JEL: | F22 J15 J16 J21 Z13 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:767&r=all |
| By: | Kumar, Anjani; Saroj, Sunil; Mishra, Ashok K. |
| Abstract: | The paper explores the spread of crop insurance in India and analyzes the factors affecting the demand for crop insurance. The study also assesses the impact of crop insurance on the rice yields of smallholder rice producers. Using data from a large farm-level survey from eastern India, the study tests for robustness of the findings after controlling for other covariates and endogeneity, using propensity score matching, coarsened exact matching, and endogenous switching regression models. Results indicate a positive and significant impact of crop insurance on rice yields. |
| Keywords: | INDIA; SOUTH ASIA; ASIA; crops; farmers; crop insurance; insurance; farm size; rice; food security; treatment effects; rice yield |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:1996&r=all |
| By: | Cosimo Petracchi |
| Abstract: | One of the most compelling pieces of evidence for monetary non-neutrality is the Mussa puzzle, in which the break in the monetary regime when the Bretton Woods System broke down increased the volatility of not only the nominal exchange rate but the real exchange rate. Using data covering thirty-one European countries from 1954 to 2019, I find that the Mussa puzzle is generalizable: any break in a monetary regime that changes the volatility of the nominal exchange rate also changes the volatility of the real exchange rate. This provides further evidence of monetary non-neutrality. |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bro:econwp:2021-001&r=all |
| By: | Ricci, Chiara Assunta; Scicchitano, Sergio |
| Abstract: | In this paper we use two different non-parametric methods to disentangle the role of Great Recession on income polarization in Italy by population groups (gender, occupational status, education, age, residential area and state of birth). By using data from the Survey on Household Income and Wealth of the Bank of Italy, first, we decompose the Duclos, Esteban and Ray polarization index by population groups. Second, we employ the Relative Distribution Approach by groups. Our results show a general downgrading, particularly of lower incomes, where low-educated, young, southern and foreign head of household are located out of the crisis. Young people and especially foreigners have suffered the most from the crisis. The lowest (highest) homogeneity within groups and the lowest (highest) heterogeneity between groups is observed when groups are formed on the basis of the state of birth (residential area).Thus, the decomposition of the polarization indices by population groups is able to provide specific useful policy indications, tailored to groups' needs. |
| Keywords: | Polarization,Non-parametric method,Decomposition,Relative distribution,Income distribution,Great Recession |
| JEL: | D3 J3 C14 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:766&r=all |
| By: | M Niaz Asadullah (Faculty of Economics and Administration, University of Malaya); Nazia Mansoor (INTO City, University of London); Teresa Randazzo (Department of Economics, University Of Venice Cà Foscari); Zaki Wahhaj (School of Economics, University of Kent) |
| Abstract: | Historically, son preference has been widely prevalent in South Asia, manifested in the form of skewed sex ratios, gender differentials in child mortality, and worse educational investments in daughters versus sons. In the present study, we show, using data from a purposefully designed nationally representative survey for Bangladesh that, among women of childbearing age, son bias in stated fertility preferences has weakened and there is an emerging preference for gender balance. We examine a number of different hypotheses for the decline in son preference, including the increasing availability of female employment in the manufacturing sector, increased female education, and the decline of joint family living. Using survival analysis, we show that, in contrast to stated fertility preferences, actual fertility decisions are still shaped by son preference. |
| Keywords: | Fertility, gender bias, birth spacing, female employment, Bangladesh |
| JEL: | J11 J13 J16 O12 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ven:wpaper:2020:24&r=all |
| By: | Enrico Santarelli (Department of Economics, University of Bologna – Department of Economics and Management, University of Luxembourg); Jacopo Staccioli (Dipartimento di Politica Economica, DISCE, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore – Institute of Economics, Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna, Pisa); Marco Vivarelli (Dipartimento di Politica Economica, DISCE, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore – UNU-MERIT, Maastricht, The Netherlands – IZA, Bonn, Germany) |
| Abstract: | Using the entire population of USPTO patent applications published between 2002 and 2019, and leveraging on both patent classification and semantic analysis, this papers aims to map the current knowledge base centred on robotics and AI technologies. These technologies will be investigated both as a whole and distinguishing core and related innovations, along a 4-level core-periphery architecture. Merging patent applications with the Orbis IP firm-level database will allow us to put forward a threefold analysis based on industry of activity, geographic location, and firm productivity. In a nutshell, results show that: (i) rather than representing a technological revolution, the new knowledge base is strictly linked to the previous technological paradigm; (ii) the new knowledge base is characterised by a considerable – but not impressively widespread – degree of pervasiveness; (iii) robotics and AI are strictly related, converging (particularly among the related technologies) and jointly shaping a new knowledge base that should be considered as a whole, rather than consisting of two separate GPTs; (iv) the U.S. technological leadership turns out to be confirmed. |
| Keywords: | Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, General Purpose Technology, Technological Paradigm, Industry 4.0, Patents full-text |
| JEL: | O33 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctc:serie5:dipe0016&r=all |
| By: | Zhichao Wang (School of Economics and Centre for Efficiency and Productivity Analysis (CEPA) at The University of Queensland, Australia); Valentin Zelenyuk (School of Economics and Centre for Efficiency and Productivity Analysis (CEPA) at The University of Queensland, Australia) |
| Abstract: | Research about the productivity and efficiency of hospitals in providing healthcare services has developed substantially in the last few decades. How does this topic proceed in Australia, its peer countries and regions who share a similar healthcare system? In this article, we conduct a systematic review and a series of bibliometric analyses of the research about the efficiency of hospitals, which are the core organizations in the the healthcare system, in order to obtain a broad perspective of this topic in Australia and its peers. Among others, a random forests model was trained to evaluate the impact of features of an article on the scientific influence of the research. We used bibliometric data in Scopus from 1970 to 2020 and extracted the review pool by a peer-review process. Besides identifying the productive authors and most cited publication sources, the bibliometric analysis also indicated a shifting of topics over time. Through the training process of the random forests classification model, the most influential features of an article were also identified. |
| Keywords: | Performance analysis, efficiency, Australia, hospital, systematic review, bibliometric analysis, random forests, machine learning |
| JEL: | C14 C61 D24 I11 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qld:uqcepa:155&r=all |
| By: | Rishabh, Kumar (University of Basel); Schäublin, Jorma |
| Abstract: | Fintech payment companies acting as lenders possess a potential solution to weak debt enforcement. Their location in the payment chain yields them a senior position in the revenue stream of the borrowing merchant, as the payment company can deduct part of the merchant's sales it processes to amortize the loan. Our analysis of the transactions processed through a fintech company offering such sales-linked loans suggests that some borrowers discontinuously reduce sales processed through the company immediately after the loan disbursal to strategically default. We find that competition from other lenders and cash limits the effectiveness of this enforcement technology. |
| Keywords: | Fintech lending, limited enforcement, sales manipulation, regression discontinuity |
| JEL: | G20 G21 G23 |
| Date: | 2021–01–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bsl:wpaper:2021/02&r=all |
| By: | Angela Köppl; Margit Schratzenstaller |
| Abstract: | In view of the challenges posed by climate change and the increase in climate targets by 2030 in the EU, as well as Austria's goal of achieving climate neutrality by 2040, the question of effective climate policy instruments is gaining in importance. The pricing of CO2, for instance in the form of a carbon tax, and the question of its effects are therefore attracting increasing attention in the academic as well as economic and environmental policy debate. The paper provides a detailed overview of the theoretical and empirical literature on the effects of carbon taxes. The focus is on the most important impact dimensions of carbon taxes: environmental effectiveness, effects on important macroeconomic variables (especially growth and employment), effects on innovation and competitiveness, distributional effects, and public acceptance. |
| Keywords: | Carbon Tax, Environmental Taxation, Double Dividend Hypothesis, Distributional Effects, Climate Policy, Price-based Instruments |
| Date: | 2021–01–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wfo:wpaper:y:2021:i:619&r=all |
| By: | Dhingra, Swati; Machin, Stephen |
| Abstract: | This paper uses a new field survey of low-wage areas of urban India to show that employment and earnings were decimated by the lockdown resulting from the Covid-19 crisis. It examines workers’ desire for a job guarantee in this setting. Workers who had a job guarantee before the crisis were relatively shielded by not being hit quite so hard in terms of the increased incidence of job loss or working zero hours and earnings losses. A stated choice experiment contained in the survey reveals evidence that low-wage workers are willing to give up around a quarter of their daily wage for a job guarantee. And direct survey questions corroborate this, with informal, young and female workers being most likely to want a job guarantee, and to want it even more due to the current crisis. |
| JEL: | J68 L52 P25 |
| Date: | 2020–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:108222&r=all |
| By: | Ichiro Fukunaga; Takuji Komatsuzaki; Hideaki Matsuoka |
| Abstract: | This paper quantitatively assesses the effects of inflation shocks on the public debt-to-GDP ratio in 19 advanced economies using simulation and estimation approaches. The simulations based on the debt dynamics equation and estimations of impulse responses by local projections both suggest that a 1 percentage point shock to inflation rate reduces the debt-to-GDP ratio by about 0.5 to 1 percentage points. The results also suggest that the impact is larger and more persistent when the debt maturity is longer, but the difference from the benchmark case is not significant. These results imply that modestly higher inflation, even if accompanied by some financial repression, could reduce public debt burden only marginally in many advanced economies. |
| Keywords: | Inflation;Public debt;Debt reduction;Long term interest rates;Deflation;WP,inflation shock |
| Date: | 2019–12–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2019/297&r=all |
| By: | Hendriock, Mario |
| Abstract: | This study provides evidence for a positive association between mutual fund holdings'implied cost of capital (ICC) and future performance. Consistent with large transactioncosts of ICC-based investments impeding their exploitation and employing a ICC-basedstrategy reflecting skill, family-level trading efficiency and manager-level SAT scorepositively correlate with fund-level ICC. A negative association between ICC and mid-year risk shifting corroborates the notion of fund managers decisively choosing andrelying on high-ICC strategies. Institutional investors able to identify funds with highICC direct their investments accordingly, whereas flows of retail funds are unaffected,consistent with limited investor attention and financial literacy. |
| Keywords: | implied cost of capital,mutual funds,portfolio choice,financial forecasting |
| JEL: | G11 G14 G17 G23 G31 M41 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cfrwps:2011&r=all |
| By: | Nadine Piefer-Söyler; Sachin Chaturvedi |
| Abstract: | India is home to a dynamic and vibrant community of civil society organisations (CSOs). Indian CSOs are often innovating to bridge development gaps and cater to the needs of marginalised and vulnerable groups. Historically, India is a pioneer of triangular co‑operation with first projects dating back to India’s independence in 1947. Over the past decade, triangular co-operation has gathered momentum at the global level and India has been a champion of this. A specific Indian model of triangular co-operation is emerging through which India and its partners aim to leverage domestic development innovations and the strengths of India’s diverse landscape of civil society organisations by scaling up bilateral co-operation and partnerships via triangular initiatives. Especially in African and neighbouring Asian countries there is a high demand to learn from Indian innovations and expertise, as they are considered to be easier to adapt to the local contexts. This paper provides insights into different ways of engaging in triangular co‑operation with India and sets out opportunities as well as challenges in enhancing triangular co-operation in the future with a broad range of CSO and government partners. |
| Keywords: | 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, Africa, Asia, Development co-operation, India, South-South co-operation, Sustainable Development Goals, triangular co-operation |
| JEL: | O21 |
| Date: | 2021–01–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:dcdaaa:89-en&r=all |
| By: | Tanai Khiaonarong; Terry Goh |
| Abstract: | Financial technology (Fintech) has prompted authorities to consider their potential financial stability benefits, risks, and effective regulation. Recent developments suggest that regulatory approaches and their legal foundations need to augment entity-based regulation with increasing focus on activities and risks as market structure changes. This paper draws on recent international experiences in modernizing legal and regulatory frameworks for payment services. An analytical framework based on a four-step process is proposed—(i) identifying payment activities; (ii) licensing entities and designating systems; (iii) analyzing and managing risks, and (iv) promoting legal certainty. As payment activities evolve and potential systemic risks heighten, adherence to international standards and additional regulatory requirements should be warranted. |
| Keywords: | Payment systems;Digital currencies;Mobile banking;Legal support in revenue administration;Virtual currencies;WP,payment transaction,oversight framework,payment activity,payment infrastructure,payment scheme |
| Date: | 2020–05–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2020/075&r=all |
| By: | Camba-Méndez, Gonzalo; Mongelli, Francesco Paolo |
| Abstract: | How much of the heterogeneity in bank loan pricing is explained by disparities in banks’ attitude towards risk? The answer to this question is not simple because there are only very weak proxies for gauging the degree of a bank’s risk aversion. We handle this constraint by means of a novel econometric approach that allows us to disentangle the amount of risk faced by banks and the price they charge for holding that risk. Some of our results are aligned with previous studies and confirm that disparities in market power, banks’ funding costs, and banks’ funding risks are reflected in bank lending rates. However, our new modelling framework reveals that the heterogeneity in bank lending rates is also a reflection of the non-negligible disparities in banks’ risk aversion. JEL Classification: C23, E58, G21 |
| Keywords: | bank loan pricing, risk aversion |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20212514&r=all |
| By: | Aslanidis, Nektarios; Fernández Bariviera, Aurelio; Pérez Laborda, Àlex |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the dynamic market linkages among cryptocurrencies during August 2015 - July 2020 and finds a substantial increase in market linkages for both returns and volatilities. We use different methodologies to check the different aspects of market linkages. Financial and regulatory implications are discussed. Keywords: Cryptocurrencies; Market Linkages; Diversification. JEL codes: C4; G01; G14 |
| Keywords: | Moneda electrònica, Mercats financers, 336 - Finances. Banca. Moneda. Borsa, |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:urv:wpaper:2072/417679&r=all |
| By: | Bernardus Bayu Ryanto Prakoso Putro (Accounting Department, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia); Christine Tjen (Accounting Department, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia) |
| Abstract: | This study consists of qualitative research and quantitative research. This study conducts qualitative research namely interviews with Directorate General of Taxation (DGT) related to the tax inclusion programs and perceptions of DGT regarding public tax knowledge and public tax education. According to DGT, public tax knowledge is still lacking. In terms of tax education, it said that tax education is still not structured. To overcome this problem, DGT implements a tax inclusion program for the next 30-45 years. In addition to qualitative research, this study also conducts quantitative research, by using questionnaire survey methods on students in Indonesia with the aim of knowing whether or not there is a significant difference related to the level of tax knowledge, student perceptions regarding the importance of tax education, and student perceptions regarding the need for tax education among students who have received tax education and students who have not received tax education. The result shows that there is a significant difference between students who have received tax education and students who have not received tax education in terms of the level of tax knowledge. Related to the perception regarding the need for tax education, there is a significant difference between students who have received tax education and have not received tax education. |
| Keywords: | tax education — tax knowledge — tax perceptions — tax inclusion |
| JEL: | A22 H20 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lpe:wpaper:202044&r=all |
| By: | Tim Ritmeester; Hildegard Meyer-Ortmanns |
| Abstract: | Along with the energy transition, the energy markets change their organization toward more decentralized and self-organized structures, striving for locally optimal profits. These tendencies may endanger the physical grid stability. One realistic option is the exhaustion of reserve energy due to an abuse by arbitrageurs. We map the energy market to different versions of a minority game and determine the expected amount of arbitrage as well as its fluctuations as a function of the model parameters. Of particular interest are the impact of heterogeneous contributions of arbitrageurs, the interplay between external stochastic events and nonlinear price functions of reserve power, and the effect of risk aversion due to suspected penalties. As conclusions from our results we propose economic and statutory measures to counteract a detrimental effect of arbitrage. |
| Date: | 2020–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2012.10475&r=all |
| By: | Jidong Zhou (Cowles Foundation, Yale University) |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a framework for studying competitive mixed bundling with an arbitrary number of ï¬ rms. We examine both a ï¬ rm’s incentive to introduce mixed bundling and equilibrium tariffs when all ï¬ rms adopt the mixed-bundling strategy. In the duopoly case, relative to separate sales, mixed bundling has ambiguous impacts on prices, proï¬ t and consumer surplus; with many ï¬ rms, however, mixed bundling typically lowers all prices, harms ï¬ rms and beneï¬ ts consumers. |
| Keywords: | Bundling, Multiproduct pricing, Price competition, Oligopoly |
| JEL: | D43 L13 L15 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2270&r=all |
| By: | Jess Benhabib; Xuewen Liu; Pengfei Wang |
| Abstract: | Even if an asset has no fundamental uncertainty with a constant dividend process, a stochastic sentiment-driven equilibrium for the asset price exists besides the well-known fundamental equilibrium. Our paper constructs such sentiment-driven equilibria under general utility functions within an OLG structure. Our paper further shows that the existence of sentiment-driven equilibria is robust in a standard infinite-period model as long as the pricing kernel is affected by the asset price. |
| JEL: | E44 G01 G11 |
| Date: | 2020–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28284&r=all |
| By: | Kevin Devereux |
| Abstract: | Teamwork is growing in developed economies, and workers in teams are increasingly compensated according to team output. Because parsing individual contributions to teamwork is difficult, I focus on scholarly economics research, which lists contributing authors. I use turnover to identify team value-added: an author's average output quality conditional on the value-added of coauthors. Linking the universe of scholarly economic research output to publicly available payroll records, I study the effect of value-added on salaries. Strikingly, coauthors' value-added has a greater effect on salaries than does own value-added, suggesting the value of professional networks dominates the effect of discounting contributions based on coauthor quality. Moreover, authors are compensated for the solo-authored output of their coauthors - which can not be reasonably attributed to them - demonstrating the value of professional networks. |
| Keywords: | Human capital; Teamwork; Productivity; Performance pay; Non-partite networks |
| JEL: | J16 J24 J33 J44 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucn:wpaper:202101&r=all |
| By: | Jeffrey D. Michler; Anna Josephson; Talip Kilic; Siobhan Murray |
| Abstract: | We quantify the significance and magnitude of the effect of measurement error in satellite weather data on modeling agricultural production, agricultural productivity, and resilience outcomes. In order to provide rigor to our approach, we combine geospatial weather data from a variety of satellite sources with the geo-referenced household survey data from four sub-Saharan African countries that are part of the World Bank Living Standards Measurement Study - Integrated Surveys on Agriculture (LSMS-ISA) initiative. Our goal is to provide systematic evidence on which weather metrics have strong predictive power over a large set of crops and countries and which metrics are only useful in highly specific settings. |
| Date: | 2020–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2012.11768&r=all |
| By: | Hubert Gabrisch (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | This study attempts to identify uncertainty in the long-term rate of interest based on the controversial interest rate theories of Keynes and Kalecki. While Keynes stated that the future of the rate of interest is uncertain because it is numerically incalculable, Kalecki was convinced that it could be predicted. The theories are empirically tested using a reduced-form GARCH-in-mean model assigned to six globally leading financial markets. The obtained results support Keynes’s theory – the long-term rate of interest is a nonergodic financial phenomenon. Analyses of the relation between the interest rate and macroeconomic variables without interest uncertainty are thus seriously incomplete. |
| Keywords: | uncertainty, interest rate, Keynes, Kalecki, GARCH |
| JEL: | B26 C58 E43 E47 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:wpaper:191&r=all |
| By: | Bergh, Andreas (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN)); Funcke, Alexander (University of Pennsylvania); Wernberg, Joakim (Swedish Entrepreneurship Forum and CIRCLE, Lund University) |
| Abstract: | For the past decade, the sharing economy has not only grown but also expanded to cover a wide variety of different activities across the globe. Despite a lot of research, there is still no agreement on how to define and measure the sharing economy, and no consensus on whether the sharing economy is a part of or an alternative to a regular capitalist economy. This paper contributes by presenting a framework for classification of firms and services in three dimensions (decentralized supply, ad hoc matchmaking and microtransactions), thus effectively creating a definition of the sharing economy. Using clickstream data collected in 2016-2017, we show that the sharing economy consists of many services, but the distribution is highly skewed: Six percent of the services account for 90 percent of the traffic. Using cross-country regressions for 114 countries, we show that while the most important determinant of sharing economy usage is internet access, usage is significantly higher in countries with fewer regulation of capital, labor, and business. We conclude that the sharing enables new types of entrepreneurial efforts within the digitized capitalist economy. |
| Keywords: | Economic freedom; Sharing economy; Broadband; Capitalism |
| JEL: | M20 O33 O57 P12 |
| Date: | 2021–01–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:iuiwop:1380&r=all |
| By: | Mehdi El Herradi (Aix-Marseille Univ, CNRS, AMSE, Marseille, France.); Jakob de Haan (De Nederlandsche Bank); Aurelien Leroy (University of Bordeaux) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the distributional implications of inflation on top income shares in 14 advanced economies using data over the period 1920-2016. We use Local Projections to analyze how top income shares respond to an inflation shock, and panel regressions in which all variables are defined as five-year averages to examine the impact of inflation on the position of the top-one-percent in the long run. Our findings suggest that inflation reduces the share of national income held by the top one percent. Furthermore, we find that inflation shocks and long-run inflation have similar effects on top income shares. |
| Keywords: | Inflation; Inequality; Top income shares |
| JEL: | D63 E50 E52 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inq:inqwps:ecineq2021-570&r=all |
| By: | Marianna Kudlyak; Murat Tasci; Didem Tuzemen |
| Abstract: | We estimate the impact of minimum wage increases on the quantity of labor demanded as measured by firms’ vacancy postings. We use proprietary, county-level vacancy data from the Conference Board’s Help Wanted Online to analyze the effects of minimum wage increases on the quantity of labor demanded. Our identification relies on the disproportionate effects of minimum wage hikes on different occupations, as the wage distribution around the binding minimum wage differs by occupation. We find that minimum wage increases during the 2005–18 period led to substantial declines in vacancy postings in occupations with a larger share of employment around the prevailing minimum wage. Our estimate implies that a 10 percent increase in the binding minimum wage level reduces vacancies by 2.4 percent in this group. |
| Keywords: | Minimum Wage; Vacancies; Hiring; Search and Matching |
| JEL: | E24 E32 J21 J24 J62 |
| Date: | 2020–12–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedkrw:89534&r=all |
| By: | Jahen F. Rezki (Department of Economics, Universitas Indonesia and LPEM-FEBUI) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the impact of political competition on district government performance in Indonesia. This study uses a new database that covers 427 districts in Indonesia, from 2000 to 2013. Political competition is measured using the Herfindahl Hirschman Concentration Index for the district parliament election. This variable is potentially endogenous, because political competition is likely to be non-random and correlated with unobservable variables. To solve this problem, I use the lag of the average political competition within the same province and the political competition from the 1955 general election, as instrumental variables for political competition. The degree of political competition has been found to boost real Regional Gross Domestic Product (RGDP) per capita and RGDP growth by 3.24% and 1.11%, respectively . This study also find that stiffer political competition is associated with higher public spending (e.g. infrastructure spending) and pro-business policies. |
| Keywords: | Political Competition — Regional Government — Indonesia — Economic Performance |
| JEL: | D78 H71 H72 O1 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lpe:wpaper:202046&r=all |
| By: | Bali, Turan G.; Weigert, Florian |
| Abstract: | While it is established that idiosyncratic volatility has a negative impact on the cross-section of future stock returns, the relationship between idiosyncratic volatility and future hedge fund returns is largely unexplored. We document that hedge funds with high idiosyncratic volatility outperform and this pattern is explained by the positive return effect of idiosyncratic volatility in their equity portfolio holdings. Hedge funds select stocks wisely by picking high-volatility stocks when they are undervalued and shying away from high-volatility stocks when they are overvalued or display lottery-like payoffs. They also trade derivatives in a way to profit from the positive volatility effect. |
| Keywords: | Hedge Funds,Idiosyncratic Volatility Puzzle,Equity Portfolio Holdings,Derivatives,Managerial Incentives,Investment Performance |
| JEL: | G11 G23 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cfrwps:2101&r=all |
| By: | Sulehri, Fiaz Ahmad; Ali, Amjad |
| Abstract: | Pakistan is struggling against many problems; out of which political instability and terrorism are crucial problems. These issues hindered the economic growth of the country as well as the confidence of investors. This study has investigated the impact of political events on Pakistan Stock Exchange. This paper uses a standard event study methodology. Data relating to the stock market index has been collected from the website of Pakistan Stock Exchange and relating to political events has been collected from the newspapers of Business Recorder and DAWN. A total of 18 political events was considered in the study out of which 08 events were coded as positive and other 10 were deemed negative. The first day abnormal return, a five-day cumulative abnormal return and ten day cumulative return was calculated for all of the events. This study found evidence that political events affected the stock market in Pakistan, but their impact is different considering the economic and political implications of these events. Certain events had the strongest impact on the stock market like Nuclear tests for effective defense, the Supreme Court had revoked the Presidential order and Nawaz Sharif had been reinstated, General elections held in the country and the 14th amendment because 14th amendment was related to the elimination of corruption in political parties. Overall, this study laid the foundation to make further explorations into the phenomenon of uncertainty caused by political events in relevance to the stock market in Pakistan. |
| Keywords: | Political instability, Stock Markets, Abnormal returns |
| JEL: | G24 P16 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:104623&r=all |
| By: | Valerio Mendoza, Octasiano; Borsi, Mihály Tamás; Comim, Flavio |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the evolution of human capital in China for 31 provinces over the period of 1985-2016 from a club convergence perspective. Per capita human capital stocks, estimated using the Jorgenson-Fraumeni lifetime income approach, are for the first time examined within a non-linear latent factor framework that allows to model a wide range of transition dynamics for each province along the path to convergence. The study finds no overall convergence between provinces in China, however, the results strongly support the existence of multiple convergence clubs. While a small group of provinces are converging toward the highest levels of human capital, most of the other provinces are failing to catch up and form separate clusters that converge to lower equilibria. These regional patterns provide new evidence on the increasing human capital gap between Chinese provinces, posing a significant challenge to a more inclusive and harmonious human, and economic development. |
| Keywords: | Human capital; Club convergence; Dynamic factor model; Asia; China |
| JEL: | C33 C53 I25 O15 R11 |
| Date: | 2021–01–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:105200&r=all |
| By: | Gang Huang; Xiaohua Zhou; Qingyang Song |
| Abstract: | The objective of this paper is to verify that current cutting-edge artificial intelligence technology, deep reinforcement learning, can be applied to portfolio management. We improve on the existing Deep Reinforcement Learning Portfolio model and make many innovations. Unlike many previous studies on discrete trading signals in portfolio management, we make the agent to short in a continuous action space, design an arbitrage mechanism based on Arbitrage Pricing Theory,and redesign the activation function for acquiring action vectors, in addition, we redesign neural networks for reinforcement learning with reference to deep neural networks that process image data. In experiments, we use our model in several randomly selected portfolios which include CSI300 that represents the market's rate of return and the randomly selected constituents of CSI500. The experimental results show that no matter what stocks we select in our portfolios, we can almost get a higher return than the market itself. That is to say, we can defeat market by using deep reinforcement learning. |
| Date: | 2020–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2012.13773&r=all |
| By: | Balazs Zelity (Department of Economics, Wesleyan University) |
| Abstract: | Foreign direct investment can increase productivity and wages. However, it is also often accompanied by primary income deficits as foreign-owned firms repatriate their profits. The welfare effects of FDI are thus ambiguous. A particularly illustrative example of this phenomenon are the Visegr´ad 4 (V4) countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia). This paper investigates whether FDI can be beneficial in the presence of profit repatriation using a general equilibrium model calibrated to the V4 economies. Counterfactual simulations suggest that the benefits of FDI outweigh the costs for these countries. On average, a 1% increase in the number of foreign firms is associated with a 0.17% increase in welfare. However, incentivising foreign firms to reinvest more of their profits domestically is, ceteris paribus, welfare-improving. A 10-percentage-point increase in the profit repatriation rate is associated with a 1.06% welfare gain on average. |
| Keywords: | foreign direct investment, primary income flows, profit repatriation |
| JEL: | F21 F23 F36 F40 E60 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wes:weswpa:2021-001&r=all |
| By: | Jos\'e Vin\'icius de Miranda Cardoso; Jiaxi Ying; Daniel Perez Palomar |
| Abstract: | In the past two decades, the field of applied finance has tremendously benefited from graph theory. As a result, novel methods ranging from asset network estimation to hierarchical asset selection and portfolio allocation are now part of practitioners' toolboxes. In this paper, we investigate the fundamental problem of learning undirected graphical models under Laplacian structural constraints from the point of view of financial market times series data. In particular, we present natural justifications, supported by empirical evidence, for the usage of the Laplacian matrix as a model for the precision matrix of financial assets, while also establishing a direct link that reveals how Laplacian constraints are coupled to meaningful physical interpretations related to the market index factor and to conditional correlations between stocks. Those interpretations lead to a set of guidelines that practitioners should be aware of when estimating graphs in financial markets. In addition, we design numerical algorithms based on the alternating direction method of multipliers to learn undirected, weighted graphs that take into account stylized facts that are intrinsic to financial data such as heavy tails and modularity. We illustrate how to leverage the learned graphs into practical scenarios such as stock time series clustering and foreign exchange network estimation. The proposed graph learning algorithms outperform the state-of-the-art methods in an extensive set of practical experiments. Furthermore, we obtain theoretical and empirical convergence results for the proposed algorithms. Along with the developed methodologies for graph learning in financial markets, we release an R package, called fingraph, accommodating the code and data to obtain all the experimental results. |
| Date: | 2020–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2012.15410&r=all |
| By: | Michael Peneder |
| Abstract: | From Aristotle to Ricardo and Menger, economists have emphasised the function of money as a medium of exchange together with the intrinsic qualities that increase its saleability and credibility as a most liquid store of value. But the social institution of money co-evolves with technology. It is significant that the advent of digital cryptocurrencies was initiated by computer scientists and has taken economists completely by surprise. As a consequence, it also forces our profession to rethink the basic phenomenology of money. In accordance with the views of Wieser and Schumpeter, digitization brings to the fore its immaterial function as a standard of value and social technology of account, which increasingly absorbs that of a medium of exchange. The potential impact on economic policy is huge. The variety of different crypto coins has proven the technical feasibility of competing private currencies as proposed by Hayek. In the long term, however, there is reason to doubt the persistence of intense competition. One must fear that major digital platforms will extend their current dominance in multisided virtual market places to include digital payments and money. Central banks are increasingly anxious to preserve public sovereignty over the common unit of account and consider issuing their own digital fiat money. After the current era of intense creative experimentation, the potentially new spontaneous order of private crypto-currencies is likely to be supplanted by central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), the design of which will depend on deliberate public choices and policies. |
| Keywords: | Digitization, evolution of money, currency competition, general ledger, crypto coins, central bank digital currency (CBDC), Austrian economics |
| Date: | 2021–01–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wfo:wpaper:y:2021:i:620&r=all |
| By: | Mohamed Belkhir; Sami Ben Naceur; Ralph Chami; Anis Semet |
| Abstract: | Using a sample of publicly listed banks from 62 countries over the 1991-2017 period, we investigate the impact of capital on banks’ cost of equity. Consistent with the theoretical prediction that more equity in the capital mix leads to a fall in firms’ costs of equity, we find that better capitalized banks enjoy lower equity costs. Our baseline estimations indicate that a 1 percentage point increase in a bank’s equity-to-assets ratio lowers its cost of equity by about 18 basis points. Our results also suggest that the form of capital that investors value the most is sheer equity capital; other forms of capital, such as Tier 2 regulatory capital, are less (or not at all) valued by investors. Additionally, our main finding that capital has a negative effect on banks’ cost of equity holds in both developed and developing countries. The results of this paper provide the missing evidence in the debate on the effects of higher capital requirements on banks’ funding costs. |
| Keywords: | Stocks;Banking;Capital adequacy requirements;Stock markets;Return on investment;WP,bank capital,capital requirement,financial risk,capital measure |
| Date: | 2019–12–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2019/265&r=all |
| By: | Bermin, Hans-Peter (Knut Wicksell Centre for Financial Studies, Lund University); Holm, Magnus (Hilbert Capital) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we show that risk associated with leverage is fundamentally relative to an arbitrary choice of reference asset or portfolio. We characterize leverage risk as a drawdown risk measure relative to the chosen reference asset. We further prove that the growth optimal Kelly portfolio is the only portfolio for which the relative drawdown risk is not dependent on the choice of the reference asset. Additionally, we show how to translate an investor’s viewpoint from one choice of reference asset to another and establish conditions for when two investors can be said to face identical leverage risk. We also prove that, for a given reference asset, the correlation between two arbitrary portfolios with identical leverage risk equals the ratio of their Sharpe ratios if and only if the leverage risk is consistently traded. More surprisingly, we observe that leverage applied to the growth optimal Kelly strategy affects the drawdown risk in much the same way as the speed of light affects velocities in Einstein’s theory of special relativity. Finally, we provide details on how to trade in order to beat an arbitrary index for a given leverage risk target. |
| Keywords: | Leverage; Drawdown risk; Generalized Kelly strategy; Numéraire invariance; Risk relativity |
| JEL: | E20 |
| Date: | 2021–01–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:luwick:2021_001&r=all |
| By: | ; Nida Cakir Melek; Charles W. Calomiris |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we study the usefulness of a large number of traditional determinants and novel text-based variables for in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting of oil spot and futures returns, energy company stock returns, oil price volatility, oil production, and oil inventories. After carefully controlling for small-sample biases, we find compelling evidence of in-sample predictability. Our text measures hold their own against traditional variables for oil forecasting. However, none of this translates to out-of-sample predictability until we data mine our set of predictive variables. Our study highlights that it is difficult to forecast oil market outcomes robustly. |
| Keywords: | Asset Pricing; Commodity Markets; Energy Forecasting; Model Validation |
| JEL: | C52 G18 G14 G17 Q47 |
| Date: | 2020–12–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedkrw:89532&r=all |
| By: | Wang, Xintong; Flores, Carlos A.; Flores-Lagunes, Alfonso |
| Abstract: | We analyze the short- and long-term effects of the U.S. Vietnam-era military service on veterans' health outcomes using a restricted version of the National Health Interview Survey 1974-2013 and employing the draft lotteries as an instrumental variable (IV). We start by assessing whether the draft lotteries, which have been used as an IV in prior literature, satisfy the exclusion restriction by placing bounds on its net or direct effect on the health outcomes of individuals who are nonveterans regardless of their draft eligibility (the "never takers"). Since we do not find evidence against the validity of the IV, we assume its validity in conducting inference on the health effects of military service for individuals who comply with the draft-lotteries assignment (the "compliers"), as well as for those who volunteer for enlistment (the "always takers"). The causal analysis for volunteers, who represent over 75% of veterans, is novel in this literature that typically focuses on the compliers. Since the effect for volunteers is not point-identified, we employ bounds that rely on a mild mean weak monotonicity assumption. We examine a large array of health outcomes and behaviors, including mortality, up to 40 years after the end of the Vietnam War. We do not find consistent evidence of detrimental health effects on compliers, in line with prior literature. For volunteers, however, we document that their estimated bounds show statistically significant detrimental health effects that appear 20 years after the end of the conflict. As a group, veterans experience similar statistically significant detrimental health effects from military service. These findings have implications for policies regarding compensation and health care of veterans after service. |
| Keywords: | Veteran health,Treatment effects,Bounds,Instrumental variables |
| JEL: | I12 C31 C36 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:764&r=all |
| By: | OECD |
| Abstract: | Despite the significant negative impacts of COVID-19 on tourism, the crisis is providing an opportunity to rethink tourism for the future. Achieving this greener and more sustainable tourism recovery, calls for a greater policy focus on the environmental and socio-cultural pillars of sustainability. The paper focuses on five main pillars of policy solutions, and best practices, to help destinations rebuild and flourish in this dramatically changed policy context for tourism development. Recommended policy solutions aim to: i) rethink tourism success, ii) adopt an integrated policy-industry-community approach, iii) mainstream sustainable policies and practices, iv) develop more sustainable tourism business models, and v) implement better measure to better manage. The report presents a selection of 9 case studies on destination strategies to support a sustainable and inclusive recovery. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19, development, managing, recovery, sustainable, tourism |
| JEL: | Z38 L83 |
| Date: | 2021–01–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:cfeaab:2021/01-en&r=all |
| By: | Markus Brueckner; Tomoo Kikuchi; George Vachadze |
| Abstract: | We estimate the relationship between GDP per capita growth and the growth rate of the national savings rate using a panel of 130 countries over the period 1960-2017. We find that GDP per capita growth increases (decreases) the growth rate of the national savings rate in poor countries (rich countries), and a higher credit-to-GDP ratio decreases the national savings rate as well as the income elasticity of the national savings rate. We develop a model with a credit constraint to explain the growth-saving relationship by the saving behavior of entrepreneurs at both the intensive and extensive margins. We further present supporting evidence for our theoretical findings by utilizing cross-country time series data of the number of new businesses registered and the corporate savings rate. |
| Date: | 2020–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2012.15435&r=all |
| By: | Elliott, M.; Galeotti., A.; Koh., A. |
| Abstract: | Prodigious amounts of data are being collected by internet companies about their users' preferences. We consider the information design problem of how to share this information with traditional companies which, in turn, compete on price by offering personalised discounts to customers. We provide a necessary and sufficient condition under which the internet company is able to perfectly segment and monopolise all such markets. This condition is surprisingly mild, and suggests room for regulatory oversight. |
| Keywords: | Information design, market segmentation, price discrimination |
| JEL: | D43 D83 L13 |
| Date: | 2021–01–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2105&r=all |
| By: | Marguerita Lane; Anne Saint-Martin |
| Abstract: | This literature review takes stock of what is known about the impact of artificial intelligence on the labour market, including the impact on employment and wages, how AI will transform jobs and skill needs, and the impact on the work environment. The purpose is to identify gaps in the evidence base and inform future OECD research on AI and the labour market. |
| Keywords: | AI, Artificial intelligence, Artificial intelligence; AI; technology; literature review; future of work;, Future of Work, Litterature review, Technology |
| JEL: | J20 J81 J31 O14 O33 |
| Date: | 2021–01–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:elsaab:256-en&r=all |
| By: | Vipin Mogha (CleRMa - Clermont Recherche Management - Clermont Auvergne - ESC Clermont-Ferrand - École Supérieure de Commerce (ESC) - Clermont-Ferrand - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne); Benjamin Williams (CleRMa - Clermont Recherche Management - Clermont Auvergne - ESC Clermont-Ferrand - École Supérieure de Commerce (ESC) - Clermont-Ferrand - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates four of Hofstede's cultural dimensions-individualism, masculinity, uncertainty avoidance, and long-term orientation-influence on firms' choices of short-term and long-term capital structures. Cultures influence on corporate risk-taking may drive their debt-to-equity mix based on the higher of their equity book or market value. We empirically test culture influence with a sample of 5968 firms from five industry sectors, across 33 countries, over 2009-2017. We find firms national culture influencing their choices of short-term and long-term debt to book and market value of equity. The influence is more significant on the short-term than the long-term capital structures. Furthermore, it is more significant on the short-term debt to market value of equity and on the long-term debt to book value of equity. Our robustness checks at the firm-level, country-level and sample-level confirm and reinforce our main results. These findings would provide financial analysts, investors, and creditors an in-depth understanding when comparing international firms' capital structures. |
| Keywords: | Risk-taking,Z10,Debt-to-Equity,JEL Code: G34,Capital structure,National culture |
| Date: | 2020–10–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03043112&r=all |
| By: | Shuhei Nishitateno (School of Policy Studies, Kwansei Gakuin University); Paul J. Burke (Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University) |
| Abstract: | This paper documents the effect of diesel vehicle registration restrictions introduced in Japan in 2001 in reducing suspended particulate matter (SPM) concentrations. The focus is on Aichi and Mie prefectures, home to a number of municipalities that were required to implement these restrictions in 2001. The paper then uses this intervention to estimate the causal effect of air pollution on land values. We obtain estimates of the elasticity of residential land prices with respect to SPM concentration of between –0.4 and –1.0. The revealed willingness to pay for the improvements in air quality induced by the intervention in Aichi and Mie is estimated at about US$7 billion. We also find evidence that net in-migration appears to be a key mechanism via which clean air was capitalized into higher land values. The results are robust to a number of estimation approaches and sample restrictions. |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:ccepwp:2101&r=all |
| By: | Monica Billio; Roberto Casarin; Enrica De Cian; Malcolm Mistry; Anthony Osuntuyi |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of climate shocks on 13 European economies analysing jointly business and financial cycles, in different phases and disentangling the effects for different sector channels. A Bayesian Panel Markov-switching framework is proposed to jointly estimate the impact of extreme weather events on the economies as well as the interaction between business and financial cycles. Results from the empirical analysis suggest that extreme weather events impact asymmetrically across the different phases of the economy and heterogeneously across the EU countries. Moreover, we highlight how the manufacturing output, a component of the industrial production index, constitutes the main channel through which climate shocks impact the EU economies. |
| Date: | 2020–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2012.14693&r=all |
| By: | Olivero, Maria (Drexel University and Swarthmore College); Dvalishvili, Mikheil (The Graduate Center) |
| Abstract: | We study the links between fiscal stimulus packages during times of crisis and households' access to consumer credit. We do so by using household-level data on income and liabilities from the Consumer Expenditure Survey and estimating an empirical model along those in the literature on the consumption effects of these packages. We find that receiving a check from the government consistently translates into a reduction in both outstanding liabilities and the household's share of aggregate credit. This effect is present for each credit type as well as for the total, and it is robust to controlling for income levels and demographic characteristics correlated with consumers' access to credit. |
| Keywords: | stimulus packages; consumer credit; borrowing and liquidity constraints |
| JEL: | D12 E21 E62 H24 H31 |
| Date: | 2021–01–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:drxlwp:2021_005&r=all |
| By: | Kiki Verico (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)) |
| Abstract: | Indonesia and Australia had agreed to seal the deal for a bilateral economic agreement entitled Indonesia-Australia Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (IA CEPA). After about ten years since both countries committed to having a bilateral agreement, IA CEPA had entered into force on July 5th, 2020. This paper has two aims. Firstly, assessing potential trade and long-run investment relations with the combination of RCA (Revealed Comparative Advantage) and CMSA (Constant Market Share Analysis) with ToT (Terms of Trade) and Net Export (NX) as the filter. Secondly, measuring the potential impacts from tariff rate elimination utilizing the GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project) model. This paper finds that both countries have complementarity relations that Indonesia can gain to improve manufacturing productivity, and Australia can benefit from sunrise to sunset relations. This paper proves that CEPA matches their need to increase their economic benefits, revealed that they could share mutual benefits and sustainable economic relations. |
| Keywords: | bilateral country studies — trade policy — CGE GTAP — FDI analysis — Indonesia Australia |
| JEL: | D58 F14 F21 O24 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lpe:wpaper:202056&r=all |
| By: | Coulibaly, Ousmane Nafolo |
| Abstract: | Mali is a Sub-Saharan African country with 19.1 million people. Almost half of this population lives in poverty, due to the dysfunction of activity sectors (agriculture, energy, education, employment, services, etc.). Natural resource management especially land and water together with corollaries remain one of the greatest challenges for this dryland region to sustainably face climate change, meet food demand and improve its economy. The social crisis (especially in the northern region) is significantly affecting development and human security as well. This study had been carried out to review the current state of affairs, key trends, problems, solutions and their implications for sustainable development of Mali under changing climate and the impacts of land degradation. Likewise, investment opportunities in the priority areas are highlighted in this report. |
| Keywords: | Labor and Human Capital, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2021–01–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:ubonwp:308805&r=all |
| By: | Venugopal Mothkoor; Nina Badgaiyan |
| Abstract: | We measure multidimensional poverty in India using National Sample Survey Organization data from 2014-15 to 2017-18. We use income, health, education, and standard of living to measure the multidimensional poverty index (MPI). The MPI headcount declined from 26.9 to 13.75 per cent over the study period. The all-India estimates indicate that 144 million people were lifted from poverty during this period. We include different health dimensions, factoring in insurance, institutional coverage, antenatal care, and chronic conditions. |
| Keywords: | multidimensional poverty index, Income, Poverty, India, Deprivation, rural, Urban, COVID-19 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2021-1&r=all |
| By: | Amitabh Anand (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (... - 2019) - COMUE UCA - COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015 - 2019) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Côte d'Azur); Piera Centobelli; Roberto Cerchione |
| Abstract: | Purpose-The significance of managing and sharing employee knowledge for successful organizational change, innovation, and for sustainable advantage has indeed been suggested by research since the last few decades. Despite numerous attempts to foster the sharing of knowledge in organizations, employees may not always be willing to share knowledge attributed due to personal beliefs or situational constraints leading to hiding of knowledge. This article provides a theoretical basis by identifying and illustrating the present and the possible myriad of knowledge hiding (KH) events by employees within organizations. Design/methodology/approach-Drawing literature from numerous sources, this paper adopts synthesis and provides a review of the literature and proposes framework. Findings-This paper identifies six broad drivers which may lead to KH, including: driven by situation explain the reason for unintentional hiding as a result of performance and competition leads to individual to have a motive to hide knowledge, driven by psychological ownership leads to controlled hiding, driven by hostility and abuse by employees or managers leads to victimized hiding and lastly driven by identity and norms leads to favoured hiding. Furthermore, this study uncovers three potential future events, which need managerial attention: negative reciprocity, influenced disengagement and perceived disengagement. Originality/value-This paper also offers new insights to managers to understand the present events and foresee the possible reasons about the KH behaviour and how they can strategize to reduce these events and undergo organizational change. |
| Keywords: | Knowledge withholding Paper type Conceptual paper,Knowledge hoarding,Knowledge hiding,Knowledge sharing |
| Date: | 2020–02–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02870014&r=all |
| By: | Amitabh Anand (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (... - 2019) - COMUE UCA - COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015 - 2019) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Côte d'Azur); Louise Brøns Kringelum (AAU - Aalborg University [Denmark]); Charlotte Øland Madsen (AAU - Aalborg University [Denmark]); Louisa Selivanovskikh (SPbU - St Petersburg State University) |
| Abstract: | Purpose-Scholarly interest in interorganizational learning (IOL) has spiked in the past decade because of its potential to absorb, transfer and create valuable knowledge for enhanced innovative performance and sustained competitive advantage. However, only a handful of review studies exists on the topic. The evolution of IOL has not been studied explicitly and there is a lack of understanding of the field trends. To fill this gap, this paper aims to comprehensively review the literature on IOL and map its evolution and trends using bibliometric techniques. In particular, the authors use visualization of science mapping freeware to systematize the findings and interpret the results. Design/methodology/approach-The authors synthesize the findings using "evaluative bibliometric techniques" to identify the quality and quantity indicators of the IOL research and use "relational bibliometric techniques" to determine the structural indicators of the IOL field such as the intellectual foundations and emerging research themes of IOL research. Findings-Through an analysis of 208 journal publications obtained from the Scopus database, the authors determine the leading authors, countries, highly cited papers and their contributions to the IOL literature. By identifying the key hotspots, intellectual foundations and emerging trends of IOL, the authors provide promising avenues in IOL research. Originality/value-To the best of the knowledge, this study is the first to systematically review the IOL literature and provide future research directions. |
| Keywords: | Bibliometric analysis Paper type Literature review,Organizational learning,Interorganizational learning,Learning organizations |
| Date: | 2020–02–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02870017&r=all |
| By: | Philomena Bacon (University of East Anglia, Norwich); Anna Conte (Department of Statistical Sciences, Sapienza University of Rome); Peter G Moffatt (University of East Anglia, Norwich) |
| Abstract: | Gambling preferences are analysed using survey data from the wider population. Respondents were confronted with a hypothetical lottery question, in which they were asked to imagine having just won a large prize, and asked how much of this prize they would be willing to invest in a further gamble. We observe the majority of respondents avoiding the gamble altogether. We demonstrate that such behaviour cannot easily be explained by standard models of choice under risk, since it implies implausible degrees of risk aversion. We propose that the observed behaviour can instead be explained in terms of gambling aversion. Since the decision variable takes the form of the number of \units" of the prize that the respondent wishes to invest in the gamble, and since the decision is observed twice for some respondents, we adopt the panel version of the Zero-In ated Poisson model as an econometric framework. We assume that individual characteristics a ect both stages of the decision-making process. We are particularly interested in the effect of gender, and we find that males have a signficantly higher probability of participating in the gamble, and are also (conditional on gambling) prepared to gamble significantly larger amounts. |
| Keywords: | Gambling behaviour; Gender; Panel Zero-Inated Poisson model; Survey Data |
| JEL: | C33 D01 J16 |
| Date: | 2021–01–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uea:ueaeco:2021-01&r=all |
| By: | Daniel Ker |
| Abstract: | Cloud computing infrastructures underpin an ever-increasing range of business tools, yet measures of cloud service adoption based on business ICT usage surveys give only a partial view of their diffusion. They do not reveal the intensity or volume of use by businesses, or the amount spent on cloud services. This paper assesses the extent to which insights on the use of commercial cloud services (i.e. services purchased from external providers) can be gleaned from economic and business statistics – in particular, from supply-use tables and the underlying business surveys. The paper examines the defining features of cloud services and their treatment in various statistical product classifications, before deriving estimates on the use of specific “cloud-containing product classes” across businesses. A key finding is that efforts are needed to improve the availability of data that can be used to gain robust insights on business use of cloud services. |
| Date: | 2021–01–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:stiaab:304-en&r=all |
| By: | McCain, Roger (School of Economics LeBow College of Business Drexel University) |
| Abstract: | In Welfare Economics and the Theory of the State, Baumol (1952) argued that phenomena of the sort that came to be known as “market failures” (Bator 1958) marked out the domain of action of a liberal state in a predominantly market economy. More recently, as the influence of game theory on economics has become more important, economists have often made the contrast of cooperative and noncooperative solutions a basis for such a judgment, characterizing “market failures” as inefficient noncooperative outcomes and arguing that state action could be justified as realizing a cooperative solution. However, the development of cooperative game theory has made it difficult to formalize this informal argument. This paper revisits the issue, adapting ideas from effectivity theory in cooperative game theory for special cases in which limited money transfers are allowed. Representing the game in extensive form, money transfers are among the basic proper subgames of the underlying game. Because backward induction eliminates the transfers, transfers never occur in the noncooperative (subgame perfect Nash) equilibrium of the game. However, transfers may dominate non-transfer solutions and define the core of the cooperative game, in one or both of two senses. Examples are given in which cooperative solutions without transfers do not improve on the noncooperative equilibrium, but solutions in the effectivity cores with transfers provide plausible market and public policy solutions. For large-N games, following a tactic in The Theory of Games and Economic Behavior, the paper posits a fictitious N+1st player whose outcome set is null and whose only strategies are transfers. Since the N+1st player – “the state” – can be a member of any coalitions, some transfers may be available to any coalition. This model is used to characterize a Pigovian tax and to argue that the stability of the tax may depend on how the revenue from the tax is redistributed, suggesting a rationale for a proposal due to the Climate Leadership Council, a free-market conservative group. |
| Keywords: | cooperative; transfers; game theory; public policy |
| JEL: | C70 D70 H20 |
| Date: | 2021–01–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:drxlwp:2021_004&r=all |
| By: | Teubner, Alexander; Stockhinger, Jan |
| Abstract: | IT/IS strategy is of central importance to practice and many well-developed lines of research have contributed to our understanding of IT/IS strategy. However, throughout the last decade, digitalization has fundamentally transformed the business world and put into question traditional strategy wisdom. As information technologies are the driver of this digital transformation, we can expect an even more fundamental change in IT/IS strategy thinking. To verify this expectation, we undertook an in-depth, extensive review of the academic literature on this topic. Our review, which is time-framed to the years 2008-2018, distils five different directions in the development of IT/IS strategy research. It also identifies a shift in how IT/IS strategy is defined and investigated over this period. Moreover, we present an emerging debate on how digitalization challenges traditional IT/IS strategy wisdom. As this debate is still in its infancy, we take it further by entering into the larger discussion on digitalization, including digital innovation, digital ecosystems, and digital transformation. Building on this, we derive at deeper insights on how IT/IS strategy could, should, or should better not be understood in the digital age. |
| Keywords: | IT/IS Strategy,IS Strategy,Digitalization,Digital Transformation,Digital Business Strategy,Digital Strategy |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ercisw:34&r=all |
| By: | Marco Di Maggio (Harvard Business School; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)); Mark Egan (Harvard University - Business School (HBS); National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)); Francesco A. Franzoni (USI Lugano; Swiss Finance Institute; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)) |
| Abstract: | Brokers play a critical role in intermediating institutional transactions in the stock market. Despite the importance of brokers, we have limited information on what drives investors’ choices among them. We develop and estimate an empirical model of broker choice that allows us to quantitatively examine each investor’s responsiveness to execution costs, access to research, and order flow information. Studying over 300 million institutional trades, we find that investor demand is relatively inelastic with respect to trading commissions and that investors are willing to pay a premium for access to formal (top research analysts) and informal (order-flow information) research. There is also substantial heterogeneity across investors. Relative to other investors, hedge funds tend to be more price insensitive, place less value on sell-side research, and place more value on order-flow information. Using trader-level data, we find that investors are more likely to execute trades through intermediaries who are located physically closer and are less likely to trade with those that have engaged in misconduct in the past. Lastly, we use our empirical model to investigate soft-dollar arrangements and the unbundling of equity research and execution services related to the MiFID II regulations. We find that the bundling of execution and research potentially allows hedge funds and mutual funds to under-report management fees by 10%. |
| Keywords: | Financial Intermediation, Institutional Investors, Research Analysts, Broker Networks, Equity Trading |
| JEL: | L11 G14 G23 G24 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp2101&r=all |
| By: | Jean-Guillaume Dumas (CASC - Calcul Algébrique et Symbolique, Sécurité, Systèmes Complexes, Codes et Cryptologie - LJK - Laboratoire Jean Kuntzmann - Inria - Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes); Sonia Jimenez-Garcès (CERAG - Centre d'études et de recherches appliquées à la gestion - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes); Florentina Șoiman (CASC - Calcul Algébrique et Symbolique, Sécurité, Systèmes Complexes, Codes et Cryptologie - LJK - Laboratoire Jean Kuntzmann - Inria - Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes, CERAG - Centre d'études et de recherches appliquées à la gestion - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes) |
| Abstract: | After ten years of continuous development and innovation, the cryptomarket and the Blockchain technology are still very much challenged and far from the mainstream adoption. We thus propose a risk assessment, as well as a market analysis of the Blockchain technology and the cryptomarket. This study is conceived as a two-level analysis. We first start with the micro-level analysis by performing a detailed risk assessment. Here, we take into consideration technological issues, such as such as consensus, network, cryptographic primitives, quantum and smart contract attacks, together with financial concerns such as market, information, liquidity, supply, reputation and environmental risks. Moreover, we propose ways to determine the probability that technological vulnerabilities can trigger financial risk. Here, we tackle concepts such as financial behavior, responsible investment and Blockchain literacy, as possible tools for assessing risk. Then, we complete this study with a macro-level analysis, which consists of the crypto-market appraisal performed with the Porter's five forces model. This market analysis is performed with respect to its stakeholders, such as the business process managers, investors, regulators, firms, developers, miners, hackers, exchange and trading platforms, etc. The results are relative to: 1. an identified continuity between the technological risks and financial ones; 2. a way to determine the likelihood of triggering financial risks through technical vulnerabilities; 3. a long-term profitability of the stakeholders' strategy / position within the market. |
| Keywords: | Blockchain,Risk assessment,Financial risks,Technological characteristics,Stakeholders,Financial behavior,Blockchain literacy,Socially responsible investment |
| Date: | 2021–03–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03112920&r=all |
| By: | Ordonez, Jose Antonio; Eckstein, Johannes |
| Abstract: | This study analyses the processes and assumptions underlying the development of Indonesia's NDC and its revision in 2020. The assumptions underlying the related energy sector documents (KEN, RUEN, RUKN, RUPTL) and their relationships are also assessed. The study is completed by giving a snapshot of the current state of discussion around constraints related to renewable energy. The unconditional target of Indonesia's NDC foresees a reduction of GHG emissions of 29% relative to a Business-as-Usual (BAU) scenario (41% conditional to international support). It specifies that electricity generation shall reduce emissions by 18.8% relative to BAU. The overall target of a 29% and 41% have been set by a non-public process. The sectoral shares of GHG reductions are determined by the responsible ministries (ESDM in case of the energy sector), with modelling performed by academic institutions (e.g. BTI for energy). This modelling is partly based on existing plans of the energy sector. Data underlying this modelling is not public, but underlying socio-economic assumptions suggest that the BAU scenario overestimates emissions. The NDC has no influence on planning in the energy sector but should be considered a by-product of existing planning documents. The process underlying the current revision is repeated for the current revision of the NDC and likely also for creation of the LTS. The ambition under the revised NDC will not be increased. The share of renewable energy in the NDC follows from a cascade of energy planning documents (KEN, RUEN, RUKN, RUPTL), which pass the target from the most overarching energy plans to the NDC. Arguably the most important target related to renewable energy planning in Indonesia set down by the countries' energy strategy KEN, to reach 23% renewable energy in each sector in total primary energy supply in 2025. The assumptions underlying this target are not known and can therefore not be contested. The national energy plan RUEN makes this target more specific in terms of technology. The power sector plan by the ministry of energy RUKN and the power sector plan by the utility RUPTL all consider 23% renewable energy target. Besides that, these plans remain largely disconnected from each other. [...] |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fisisi:s142020&r=all |
| By: | Marlene Amstad; Leonardo Gambacorta; Chao He; Dora Xia |
| Abstract: | Trade tensions between China and US have played an important role in swinging global stock markets but effects are difficult to quantify. We develop a novel trade sentiment index (TSI) based on textual analysis and machine learning applied on a big data pool that assesses the positive or negative tone of the Chinese media coverage, and evaluates its capacity to explain the behaviour of 60 global equity markets. We find the TSI to contribute around 10% of model capacity to explain the stock price variability from January 2018 to June 2019 in countries that are more exposed to the China-US value chain. Most of the contribution is given by the tone extracted from social media (9%), while that obtained from traditional media explains only a modest part of stock price variability (1%). No equity market benefits from the China-US trade war, and Asian markets tend to be more negatively affected. In particular, we find that sectors most affected by tariffs such as information technology related ones are particularly sensitive to the tone in trade tension. |
| Keywords: | stock returns, trade, sentiment, big data, neural network, machine learning |
| JEL: | F13 F14 G15 D80 C45 C55 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:biswps:917&r=all |