|
on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Emilia M Jurzyk; Medha Madhu Nair; Nathalie Pouokam; Tahsin Saadi Sedik; Anthony Tan; Irina Yakadina |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 pandemic risks exacerbating inequality in Asia. High frequency labor surveys show that the pandemic is having particularly adverse effects on younger workers, women and people that are more vulnerable. Pandemics have been shown to increase inequalities. As a result, income inequality, which was already high and rising in Asia before the pandemic, is likely to rise further over the medium term, unless policies succeed in breaking this historical pattern. Many Asian governments have implemented significant fiscal policy measures to mitigate the pandemic’s effect on the most vulnerable, with the impact depending on the initial coverage of safety nets, fiscal space, and degree of informality and digitalization. The paper includes model-based analysis which shows that policies targeted to where needs are greatest are effective in mitigating adverse distributional consequences and underpinning overall economic activity and virus containment. |
| Keywords: | Income inequality;Education;Consumption;Labor;Income;COVID-19,Inequality,Susceptible-Infected-Recovered Macro Model,Fiscal Policy.,WP,IMF staff calculation,pandemic course,government-imposed lockdown,coronavirus disease pandemic,pandemic recession |
| Date: | 2020–10–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2020/217&r=all |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Environment - Natural Disasters Finance and Financial Sector Development - Insurance & Risk Mitigation Urban Development - Hazard Risk Management |
| Date: | 2020–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:33885&r=all |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | This Selected Issues paper aims to take stock of key challenges and propose recommendations on how to address them. Mongolia has taken important steps to address these challenges, but more should be done to tackle remaining gaps and ensure effective enforcement. Improving governance is a crucial step for Mongolia to achieve sustainable and inclusive growth. In order to substantially reduce corruption, a stronger anti-corruption framework should be accompanied by governance reforms across a range of state functions. On rule of law, the Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) place Mongolia above peers in Asia but below regional averages, indicating room for improvement. Although Mongolia has developed a legal framework since the transition to a market economy, observers point out that there are often loopholes and unintended consequences. Weak revenue administration can undermine fiscal sustainability while uneven enforcement of tax rules can damage the investment climate. State-owned enterprises would benefit from better governance, particularly given their central role in output and potential for creating fiscal liabilities. |
| Keywords: | Corruption;Public financial management (PFM);Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT);Budget planning and preparation;Fiscal risks;ISCR,CR,governance,BOM.,independence,financing,resource |
| Date: | 2019–09–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2019/298&r=all |
| By: | , AISDL |
| Abstract: | Entrepreneurship is one of the main strategies of countries, especially developing countries like Vietnam. Government of Ho Chi Minh City is using entrepreneurship as the effective implement to promote economy. Therefore, finding the barriers to prevent development of entrepreneurship is necessary. The aim of this study is to assess factors that affect the entrepreneurship development in Ho Chi Minh City. This thesis employs quantitative methods to conduct the research with sample size being 154 samples. The author evaluates Cronbach’s Alpha reliability, EFA analysis, Pearson correlation analysis, determines and analyzes multivariate regression models; Multicollinearity assay and ANOVA. The results show that the regression model is suitable and does not have multicollinearity; three factors affect the entrepreneurship development in Ho Chi Minh City: (i) Individual factors; (ii) Environmental factors; (iii) Social – Cultural factors. Based on the found results, the author points out some management implications related to reject the barriers to entrepreneurship in Ho Chi Minh City and give some recommendations for making entrepreneurial policies. |
| Date: | 2020–04–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:sh32d&r=all |
| By: | Kaumudi Misra (Institute for Social and Economic Change) |
| Abstract: | This paper attempts to analyse the relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions in India. The parameters selected for understanding this relationship are GDP (as a proxy of economic growth) and CO2 emissions for the period 1970-2012. The study includes other important parameters such as energy consumption (oil) and urbanisation. Granger causality is used to check the existence of unidirectional and bi-directional causalities between the variables. The results reveal that there exists a unidirectional causality from energy consumption and GDP to carbon emissions. The ARDL model is used to understand the long run and short run relationship between the variables. The study finds that there exists a long run relationship between the variables whereas in the short run, there is no relationship between the variables. The findings imply that any attempt at reducing carbon emissions without bringing in energy efficiency will adversely affect the economic growth of the country. |
| Keywords: | Economics; Consumption; Urbanization |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sch:wpaper:447&r=all |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Poverty Reduction - Access of Poor to Social Services Social Protections and Labor - Social Protections & Assistance |
| Date: | 2020–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:33310&r=all |
| By: | Li, Honghui; Hiwatari, Masato |
| Abstract: | In China, the population policy has been a major item on the political agenda since the early 1970s. Given the importance of human capital as an engine for economic growth, the question of how changes in birth rates affect human capital is particularly important for macroeconomic policy. Extant studies have presented contrasting views on the relationship between the number of children and educational investment in households. Some suggest a negative relationship due to the quantity/quality trade-off occasioned by limited resources within the family, while other studies point out a positive relationship caused by economies of scale. This study empirically analyzes the relationship between the number of children and educational attainment in households in China. More specifically, we estimate the effect of the number of siblings on the number of education years among individuals born since 1970, using the China General Social Survey (CGSS) and the Chinese Household Income Project Survey (CHIP). We estimate the causal impact of the number of siblings by exploiting exogenous variation in the number of siblings caused by family planning policies (“Later, Longer, Fewer”) that started in the early the 1970s. The results support the assertion that the number of siblings has a negative effect on educational attainment in China. |
| Keywords: | Quantity-quality trade-off, Demographic Economics, Education, Fertility, Family Planning, China, |
| Date: | 2020–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hok:dpaper:353&r=all |
| By: | Saroj Bhattarai; Jae Won Lee; Choongryul Yang |
| Abstract: | We show that the effectiveness of redistribution policy in stimulating the economy and improving welfare is directly tied to how much inflation it generates, which in turn hinges on monetary-fiscal adjustments that ultimately finance the transfers. We compare two distinct types of monetary-fiscal adjustments: In the monetary regime, the government eventually raises taxes to finance transfers while in the fiscal regime, inflation rises, effectively imposing inflation taxes on public debt holders. We show analytically in a simple model how the fiscal regime generates larger and more persistent inflation than the monetary regime. In a quantitative application, we use a two-sector, two-agent New Keynesian model, situate the model economy in a Covid-19 recession, and quantify the effects of the transfer components of the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act. We find that the transfer multipliers are significantly larger under the fiscal regime—which results in a milder contraction—than under the monetary regime, primarily because inflationary pressures of this regime counteract the deflationary forces during the recession. Moreover, redistribution produces a Pareto improvement under the fiscal regime. |
| Keywords: | household heterogeneity, redistribution, monetary-fiscal policy mix, transfer multiplier, welfare evaluation, Covid-19, CARES Act |
| JEL: | E53 E62 E63 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_8779&r=all |
| By: | Chu, Shuai; Liu, Xiangbo |
| Abstract: | This paper studies whether research universities can boost regional economic development through an exogenous shock of a forced relocation of a research university in China. We analyze the development in the treated regions compared with a set of control regions that are created using the synthetic control method and find that research universities can have negative effects on local economic development. We then perform a series of robustness checks. Our main results carry through. By employing a more exogenous shock and more reliable identification strategies, our study provides evidence that research universities do not necessarily promote regional economic development. |
| Keywords: | Research Universities,Regional Economic Development,Synthetic Control Method |
| JEL: | O15 O18 R11 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:748&r=all |
| By: | Gabriel Machlica |
| Abstract: | Despite being one of the smallest countries in the OECD, Israel is marked by significant socio-economic disparities, which have a clear spatial dimension. Ethnic and religious groups with weak socio-economic outcomes are not benefitting from the thriving high-tech sector in the centre of the country. As a result, there is a persistent lack of employment opportunities in the peripheral areas alongside skills shortages in the dynamic centre. Inequalities between municipalities are the highest in the OECD. Moreover, the current pandemic has hit poorer Haredi neighbourhoods particularly hard. The government should reduce barriers that prevent segments of the population from fully participating in the economic process and give everyone a similar chance to succeed, regardless of where he or she was born. This will require equal access to high-quality education, affordable housing, reasonable public transportation and improved urban planning in every municipality to reduce spatial divides and segregation of disadvantaged households. Local authorities can play a significant role, since good municipal government and effective policies to achieve national priorities are the best means to improve the outcomes of residents of poor areas. |
| Keywords: | education, fiscal decentralisation, housing, infrastructure, municipalities, regional inequality |
| JEL: | H52 H53 H54 H71 H72 O18 R11 R52 R58 |
| Date: | 2020–12–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1645-en&r=all |
| By: | Haushofer, Johannes (Department of Economics, Stockholm University and); Mudida, Robert (Strathmore Business School); Shapiro, Jeremy (Busara Center for Behavioral Economics) |
| Abstract: | We study the economic and psychological effects of a USD 1076 PPP unconditional cash transfer, a five-week psychotherapy program, and the combination of both interventions among 5,756 individuals in rural Kenya. One year after the interventions, cash transfer recipients had higher consumption, asset holdings, and revenue, as well as higher levels of psychological well-being than control households. In contrast, the psychotherapy program had no measurable effects on either psychological or economic outcomes, both for individuals with poor mental health at baseline and others. The effects of the combined treatment are similar to those of the cash transfer alone. |
| Keywords: | Unconditional cash transfers; Psychotherapy; Randomized experiment |
| JEL: | C93 D90 O12 |
| Date: | 2021–01–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:iuiwop:1377&r=all |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Gender - Gender and Development Poverty Reduction - Living Standards Poverty Reduction - Migration and Development Social Development - Social Conflict and Violence Social Protections and Labor - Social Protections & Assistance |
| Date: | 2020–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:33573&r=all |
| By: | Chatelain, Jean-Bernard; Ralf, Kirsten |
| Abstract: | In the discrete-time new-Keynesian model with public debt, Ramsey optimal policy eliminates the indeterminacy of simple-rules multiple equilibria between the fiscal theory of the price level versus new-Keynesian versus an unpleasant equilibrium. If public debt volatility is taken into account into the loss function, the interest rate responds to public debt besides inflation and output gap. Else, the Taylor rule is identical to Ramsey optimal policy when there is zero public debt. The optimal fiscal-rule parameter implies the local stability of public-debt dynamics ("passive" fiscal policy). |
| Keywords: | Fiscal theory of the Price Level, Ramsey Optimal Policy, New-Keynesian model, Fiscal Rule, Taylor Rule, Multiple Equilibria. |
| JEL: | C61 C62 E43 E52 E61 E62 E63 |
| Date: | 2020–12–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:104536&r=all |
| By: | Patrick Blagrave; Fabien Gonguet |
| Abstract: | Current fiscal transparency and reporting practices in India place it behind most peer G20 economies, implying that policy makers are lacking critical data to ground their fiscal and other economic planning decisions. The increasing use of off-budget financing at the central government level in recent years represents one key example of reduced transparency—we provide estimates of the public sector borrowing requirement and an extended notion of the fiscal deficit, each of which shows a more expansionary stance in recent years than ‘headline’ deficit figures presented in budget documents. We then investigate the current state of fiscal reporting practices in India and suggest areas for reforms—these include enhanced IT systems, stronger central-local coordination, and a gradual transition to accrual accounting. |
| Keywords: | Government debt management;Fiscal reporting;Budget planning and preparation;Fiscal transparency;Fiscal risks;Government Statistics,Budget Systems,India,WP,Union government,cash-basis accounting regime,General government data,borrowing need,government activity |
| Date: | 2020–11–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2020/250&r=all |
| By: | Peter Mockel; Baloko Makala |
| Keywords: | Information and Communication Technologies - Information Technology Information and Communication Technologies - Telecommunications Infrastructure |
| Date: | 2019–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:33388&r=all |
| By: | Javier Silvestre (Universidad de Zaragoza) |
| Abstract: | European coal production underwent a period of dramatic increase from the early nineteenth century to 1913. A consensus exists, however, for a depiction of the coal industry as, to a high degree, technologically stagnant throughout the long nineteenth century. Macro-inventions, or general purpose technologies, in fact, appeared at either end of the period. In the interregnum, therefore, the increase in European coal production would have mainly been the result of adding more labor rather than developing new technology. This paper aims to revise this interpretation. First, long-term series of labor productivity and fatality rates data are presented. Second, a link between improvements in Europe both in productivity and safety in conjunction with a series of “small-scale”, for the most part complementary to labor and closely related to questions of safety, technological innovations is proposed. A comparison of productivity and safety for European countries is established with the US. |
| Keywords: | Long nineteenth-century coal mining, productivity, mortality, technology, Europe, United States |
| JEL: | N70 N50 N30 Q35 O33 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0205&r=all |
| By: | Yuhua Li (Department of Information Management, Zhejiang University of Finance & Economics, China); Ze Jian (School of business administration, Guangdong University of Finance & Economics, China); Wei Tian (School of Ecnomics, Peking University, China); Laixun Zhao (Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration (RIEB), Kobe University, Japan) |
| Abstract: | We examine how political conflicts affect trade, using both the Goldstein score that scales all political conflicts daily worldwide and the firm-country-product level data of Chinese imports. We find that political conflicts reduce Chinese imports in general. Speci cally, (i) the imports of State-owned enterprises (SOEs) are most reduced, and the effects mostly fall on imports for intermediate goods while not so much on capital goods; (ii) foreign-invested enterprises (FIEs) are less negatively affected, because most of their trade is processing, which is less negatively affected by political conflict than ordinary trade. These results are obtained via mechanisms in the mode of trade (processing vs. ordinary), variations in broad economic categories (BEC) and import boycotts and export controls. |
| Keywords: | Political conflicts; Trade; State-owned enterprises; Goldstein score |
| JEL: | F1 F51 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kob:dpaper:dp2021-01&r=all |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Infrastructure Economics and Finance - Infrastructure Finance Poverty Reduction - Access of Poor to Social Services Rural Development - Rural Poverty Reduction Strategies Public Sector Development - Public Investment Management |
| Date: | 2019–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:33282&r=all |
| By: | Binder, Martin; Blankenberg, Ann-Kathrin |
| Abstract: | Self-employment contributes to employment growth and innovativeness and many individuals want to become self-employed due to the autonomy and exibility it brings. Using "subjective well-being" as a broad summary measure that evaluates an individual's experience of being self-employed, the chapter discusses evidence and explanations why self-employment is positively associated with job satisfaction, even though the self-employed often earn less than their employed peers, work longer hours and experience more stress and higher job demands. Despite being more satisfied with their jobs, the self-employed do not necessarily enjoy higher overall life satisfaction, which is due to heterogeneity of types of self-employment, as well as motivational factors, work characteristics and institutional setups across countries. |
| Keywords: | self-employment,entrepreneurship,subjective well-being,job satisfaction,life satisfaction |
| JEL: | L26 J24 J28 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:744&r=all |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Education - Access & Equity in Basic Education Education - Education Finance Education - Education For All Education - Effective Schools and Teachers Education - Secondary Education |
| Date: | 2020–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:33311&r=all |
| By: | Minsuk Kim; Rui Mano; Mico Mrkaic |
| Abstract: | Central banks often buy or sell reserves-–-so called FX interventions (FXIs)---to dampen sharp exchange rate movements caused by volatile capital flows. At the same time, these interventions may entail unintended side effects. In this paper, we investigate whether FXIs incentivize firms to take on more unhedged FX debt, thereby increasing medium-term corporate vulnerabilities. Using a novel dataset with close to 5,000 nonfinancial firms across 19 emerging markets covering 2002--2017, we find that the firm-level share of FX debt rises following intensive use of FXIs, particularly for non-exporting firms in shallow financial markets with no FX debt to begin with. The magnitude of this effect is economically significant, with one standard deviation increase in FXI leading to an average 2 percentage points increase in the FX debt share. For reference, the median share of FX debt in the sample is zero. |
| Keywords: | Foreign exchange;Exchange rate arrangements;Exchange rates;Currencies;Exchange rate flexibility;WP,firm,balance sheet data,FX intervention |
| Date: | 2020–09–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2020/197&r=all |
| By: | Della Giusta, Marina (University of Reading); Bosworth, Steven J. (University of Reading) |
| Abstract: | The paper presents the economic literature on gender bias, illustrating the underpinnings in the psychology of bias and stereotyping; the incorporation of these insights into current theoretical and empirical research in economics, and the literature on methods to contrast bias presenting evidence (where it exists) of their effectiveness. The second part of the paper presents results of an experiment in revealing unconscious bias. |
| Keywords: | discrimination, gender, unconscoius bias, licensing |
| JEL: | D9 J7 |
| Date: | 2020–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13983&r=all |
| By: | Virtanen, Hanna; Riukula, Krista |
| Abstract: | Abstract We study how reducing the regional supply of post-compulsory education affects schooling choices and educational attainment in Finland. We exploit variation across municipalities and over time in the availability of three secondary education tracks: general education, and the vocational fields of technology and services. According to our results, access to general education mainly affects decisions regarding what to study, whereas reducing the regional availability of vocational education also postpones studies and may even decrease the educational attainment of local youth. Our results also suggest that school consolidations may have a substantial impact on labor market trajectories. We find that the initial enrollment choices of men are more sensitive to supply reductions than those of women, and that the field of technology is particularly important for individuals with less-educated mothers. |
| Keywords: | School consolidation, Post-compulsory education, Vocational education, School choice, Student mobility, Education supply |
| JEL: | I2 I21 I24 H40 J24 |
| Date: | 2021–01–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rif:wpaper:85&r=all |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Health, Nutrition and Population - Early Child and Children's Health Health, Nutrition and Population - Nutrition Health, Nutrition and Population - Reproductive Health |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:34144&r=all |
| By: | Loïc Berger; Massimo Marinacci (Bocconi University [Milan, Italy]) |
| Abstract: | We review recent models of choices under uncertainty that have been proposed in the economic literature. In particular, we show how different concepts and methods of economic decision theory can be directly useful for problems in environmental economics. The framework we propose is general and can be applied in many different fields of environmental economics. To illustrate, we provide a simple application in the context of an optimal mitigation policy under climate change. |
| Keywords: | Ambiguity,non-expected utility,model uncertainty,climate change |
| Date: | 2020–09–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02914088&r=all |
| By: | Tumbe, Chinmay |
| Abstract: | This paper presents selected historical mortality statistics of India and analyses their characteristics and trends. Statistics are collated from a wide range of sources as time series at different regional scales, and particularly for the pandemics related with cholera, plague and influenza between 1817 and 1920. The paper analyses rare burial records in 19th century Calcutta, constructs the global distribution of deaths due to pandemic cholera in the 19th and early 20th century, and provides new mortality estimates of the 1918 influenza pandemic in India. The paper also presents a bibliography of over 250 studies on pandemics and historical mortality in India. |
| Date: | 2020–12–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iim:iimawp:14644&r=all |
| By: | Paras Kharel (South Asia Watch on Trade, Economics and Environment) |
| Abstract: | This paper seeks to contribute to the discourse on industrialization in Nepal. It shows that it would be premature to write off manufacturing-powered industrialization. It emphasizes that the debate over whether protecting domestic industry from import competition as part of an industrialization strategy works or not is far from settled. It discusses Nepal's muddled input-tariff policy for exports, and examines whether there are valid revenue loss concerns behind the anti-export bias of the tariff policy. While existing research on Nepal suggests revenue loss is not significant if tariff elimination is targeted at inputs used by a few key export products, the paper suggests further extensions and lines of inquiry, taking into account alternative scenarios. Finally, it highlights some questions, trade-offs and issues in tariff setting for the Government of Nepal to ponder. |
| Keywords: | Manufacturing, structural transformation, infant industry, liberalization, deindustrialization, industrial policy, trade policy, tariff, revenue loss |
| JEL: | F13 L52 L60 |
| Date: | 2020–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:saw:wpaper:wp/20/01&r=all |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Finance and Financial Sector Development - Access to Finance Finance and Financial Sector Development - Microfinance Private Sector Development - Microenterprises Private Sector Development - Private Sector Economics Private Sector Development - Small and Medium Size Enterprises |
| Date: | 2019–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:33563&r=all |
| By: | Enrico Santarelli; Jacopo Staccioli; Marco Vivarelli |
| Abstract: | Using the entire population of USPTO patent applications published between 2002 and 2019, and leveraging on both patent classification and semantic analysis, this papers aims to map the current knowledge base centred on robotics and AI technologies. These technologies will be investigated both as a whole and distinguishing core and related innovations, along a 4-level core-periphery architecture. Merging patent applications with the Orbis IP firm-level database will allow us to put forward a threefold analysis based on industry of activity, geographic location, and firm productivity. In a nutshell, results show that: (i) rather than representing a technological revolution, the new knowledge base is strictly linked to the previous technological paradigm; (ii) the new knowledge base is characterised by a considerable - but not impressively widespread - degree of pervasiveness; (iii) robotics and AI are strictly related, converging (particularly among the related technologies) and jointly shaping a new knowledge base that should be considered as a whole, rather than consisting of two separate GPTs; (iv) the U.S. technological leadership turns out to be confirmed. |
| Keywords: | Robotics; Artificial Intelligence; General Purpose Technology; Technological Paradigm; Industry 4.0; Patents full-text. |
| Date: | 2021–01–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ssa:lemwps:2021/01&r=all |
| By: | Nicola Pierri; Yannick Timmer |
| Abstract: | We study the economic effects of information technology (IT) adoption during the COVID-19 pandemic. Using data on IT adoption covering almost three million establishments in the US, we find that technology adoption can partly shield the economy from the impact of the pandemic. In areas where firms adopted more IT the unemployment rate rose less in response to social distancing. Our estimates imply that if the pandemic had hit the world 5 years ago, the resulting unemployment rate would have been 2 percentage points higher during April and May 2020 (16% vs. 14%), due to the lower availability of IT. Local IT adop-tion mitigates the labor market consequences of the pandemic for all individuals, regardless of gender and race, except those with the lowest level of educational attainment. |
| Keywords: | Unemployment rate;Unemployment;COVID-19 ;Labor;Technology;WP,IT adoption |
| Date: | 2020–09–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2020/208&r=all |
| By: | John Graham |
| Keywords: | Infrastructure Economics and Finance - Infrastructure Finance Urban Development - Transport in Urban Areas Transport - Transport Economics Policy & Planning |
| Date: | 2020–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:33641&r=all |
| By: | Gordon H. Hanson |
| Abstract: | In this paper, I review evidence on changing global specialization in labor-intensive exporting. Production of apparel, footwear, furniture, and related products are how many low-income countries first enter export manufacturing. Just as China's rise as a powerhouse in these goods supplanted a role previously occupied by the East Asian Tigers, the world may again be on the cusp of significant change in where labor-intensive goods are produced. China's prowess in these sectors peaked in the early 2010s; its share in their global exports, while still substantial, is now in decline. Mechanisms through which the global economy may adjust to China's graduation into more technologically sophisticated activities include expanded labor-intensive export production in other emerging economies and labor-saving technological change in products currently heavily reliant on less-educated labor. Available evidence suggests that the first mechanism is operating slowly and the second hardly at all. As a third mechanism, China may in part replace itself by moving labor-heavy factories out of densely populated and expensive coastal cities and into the country's interior. Such a transition, though still in its infancy, would mirror the decentralization of manufacturing production in the U.S. and Europe, which occurred after World War II. |
| JEL: | F14 F61 O24 |
| Date: | 2020–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28313&r=all |
| By: | Sebastian Morris, Ajay Pandey, Sobhesh Agarwalla, and Astha Agarwalla (Adani Institute of Infrastructure Management, Ahmedabad); Astha Agarwalla (Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad); Sebastian Morris, Ajay Pandey, Sobhesh Agarwalla |
| Abstract: | GST as introduced in India being a destination based tax, does not encourage regions to vigorously promote manufacturing and tradable services industries. Being in the midst of its economic transformation, and given the subnational character of most states (regions), it is important that the states engage in locational tournaments to attract investments, not through tax concessions, but through the provision of infrastructure services, governance, and other intangible services. A new consumption based approach that adjusts the detailed consumer expenditure figures of the National Sample Surveys at the state level is developed. This is shown to be robust and is used to estimate the RNR (Revenue Neutral Rate of Taxes) at the State level. This reveals that there are stark differences between the rates for the producing states and the consumption oriented states amounting to as much as 10% of GDP. These differences cannot be bridged by the proposed compensation scheme. As the impact of GST goes on to the next stage of determining the locational choices of new investments, the lack of fiscal incentives for states to attract and nurture investments, unless corrected would have deleterious effects on the investment process. As much as 50% of the Centre’s collection of GST may have to be distributed based on economic activity centered around manufacturing and tradable services production, if the country is not to lose the steam of high and growing investments to take it through its economic transformation. The contrast with China is remarkable, China’s GST is only partial covering only manufacturing and associated labour services, allowing states to tax and retain many services irrespective of the location of the consumer of the service. More importantly as much as 25% of the central collections on account of GST( in manufacturing) go to the provinces based on their public goods production. |
| Date: | 2019–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:alt:wpaper:02-02&r=all |
| By: | Hippolyte Balima (International Monetary Fund); Anna Sokolova (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | We examine 994 estimates of the effects of IMF programs on economic growth as reported by 36 studies. The mean reported effect is positive, but the estimates vary widely. We use meta-regression analysis to disentangle sources of this variation, addressing model uncertainty with Bayesian Model Averaging and LASSO. We find that estimates vary systematically depending on data and methods employed by the researchers. Reported effects of IMF programs tend to be more positive for samples that include countries with high levels of institutional and economic development, when measured on longer horizons, estimated using more recent data or obtained with the propensity score matching technique. Estimates appear to depend on the types of IMF programs being considered, as general resource programs tend to result in less favorable growth outcomes compared to programs that lend from concessional resources. Authors with IMF affiliation tend to report estimates that are somewhat higher than those of outside researchers. |
| Keywords: | IMF programs; Economic growth; Meta-Analysis; Bayesian Model Averaging |
| JEL: | F3 F4 O19 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:241/ec/2020&r=all |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Agriculture - Agricultural Trade Agriculture - Food Markets International Economics and Trade - Access to Markets International Economics and Trade - Export Competitiveness International Economics and Trade - Trade and Agriculture |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:33652&r=all |
| By: | Murat, Marina |
| Abstract: | The ‘mobility transition’ hypothesis – with emigration first increasing and then decreasing as a country develops – (Zelinsky, 1971) is often interpreted as a stylised fact, which bears the implication that immigration into rich countries will grow as low-income countries develop. This paper tests the relationships between development and emigration from 130 developing countries during 25 years. Results, robust to different semiparametric and parametric specifications, show that emigration from low to middle-income countries declines as income increases, education improves or population growth slows down. The stage of development at home also affects the main destinations of emigration. Immigration into rich economies increases from countries at intermediate levels of development. Hence, policies supporting development in low-income countries are associated with less emigration to all destinations, including that to rich economies. |
| Keywords: | emigration,income,development,demographic transitions |
| JEL: | F22 J11 O11 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:747&r=all |
| By: | Fátima Cardoso; Manuel Coutinho Pereira; Nuno Alves |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the impact on consumption of the large changes in public wages in Portugal arising in the context of the economic and financial assistance program (2011-2014). We uncover the effects of exogenous public wage changes by exploiting the heterogeneous characteristics of public servants by municipality. The initial wage cuts triggered a marked reduction of private consumption, while the reinstatements in the later years gave rise to an increase, albeit of a smaller magnitude. The consumption response was larger for employees with relatively lower wages. Households smoothed the impact on consumption of negative income shocks by drawing down their deposits. Consumer credit did not play such a role, as households deleveraged as a response to those negative shocks. |
| JEL: | E21 E62 E65 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w202018&r=all |
| By: | Aneesha Chitgupi (Institute for Social and Economic Change) |
| Abstract: | The impact of macroeconomic determinants on software services exports (SSE) is estimated by using a panel of 45 countries from 2000-2014. Software services exports (SSE) expressed as a percentage share of total world software services exports is used as dependent variable. Macroeconomic variables along with demographic variables are estimated using the TSLS fixed effects technique. Using the estimated coefficients from the cross-country panel model, India specific results are drawn to explain the impact of macroeconomic and demographic variables on India’s SSE and their contribution towards achieving the objective of external stabilisation. The empirical results suggest that GDP, R&D expenditure and reduction in trade barriers of the exporting country improved SSE, whereas internet penetration may have led to the diversion of software services towards the domestic market, thereby reducing exports. Among demographic variables, the share of population within 30-39 improved the SSE. Together, R&D expenditure, reduction in trade barriers and population share (30-39) reduce the CAD/GDP ratio for India by 1.6 percentage points through their contribution towards SSE. |
| Keywords: | Macroeconomic; Domestic market; Software services exports |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sch:wpaper:432&r=all |
| By: | Wang, Tianxi |
| Abstract: | This paper studies non-neutrality of monetary policy in a model where fiat money is used by banks to meet liquidity demand and a government bond to collateralize reserve borrowing. It finds that if some banks are liquidity constrained, any monetary policy that alters the bond-to-fiat money ratio moves the interbank rate and is non-neutral in the steady state. Moreover, the effect for liquidity un-constrained banks is the opposite of that for the maximally constrained. Lastly, if the expansion of digital ways of payment eliminates depositor withdrawals, fiat money will stop circulation and a bullion standard will probably return. |
| Date: | 2021–01–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:esx:essedp:29502&r=all |
| By: | Onome Christopher Edo (Department of Accounting, University of Benin, Nigeria. Author-2-Name: Anthony Okafor, PhD Author-2-Workplace-Name: Department of Finance, University of Louisville, Kentucky Author-3-Name: Akhigbodemhe Emmanuel Justice Author-3-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, University of Benin, Nigeria Author-4-Name: Author-4-Workplace-Name: Author-5-Name: Author-5-Workplace-Name: Author-6-Name: Author-6-Workplace-Name: Author-7-Name: Author-7-Workplace-Name: Author-8-Name: Author-8-Workplace-Name:) |
| Abstract: | Objective - Tax policies play significant role in the direction of foreign direct investments. We investigate the proposition that tax policies enacted by military and democratic regimes differ on the influence the foreign direct investments. Methodology – Our hypotheses are tested using the error correction model as we compare the impact of tax policies on flow foreign direct investments in Nigeria between two dispensations: military rule from 1983 to 1999 and democratic rule from 1999 to 2017. Panel data between 1983 and 2017 were obtained from the databases of the World Bank, Central Bank of Nigeria and the Federal Inland Revenue Services. The explanatory variables include company income tax, value added tax, tertiary education tax and customs and exercise duties. Findings – The study reveals that tax variables during the military regime exerted more explanatory power of 79% compared to the civilian administration of 66% with respect to the impact of corporate taxes on FDI. The effect of company income tax on FDI was more pronounced during the military regime than in the civilian regime. FDI had a higher degree of convergence during the military regime compared to civilian rule, and this is vital for policy assessments and comparison. Novelty – We bring to light new evidences on the effects of taxes polices on FDI. Type of Paper - Empirical |
| Keywords: | Corporate taxes; Tax Policies; Foreign Direct Investments; Error Correction Model; Military regime; Civilian regime. |
| JEL: | E22 F21 H2 P33 |
| Date: | 2020–12–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gtr:gatrjs:jfbr176&r=all |
| By: | Mate Rosan (Croatian National Bank); Krunoslav Zauder (Croatian National Bank) |
| Abstract: | This paper uses a new data set in order to explore micro-level patterns of household borrowing in Croatia. By analyzing cross-section data from the Household Finance and Consumption Survey, conducted for the first time in Croatia in 2017, we present the structure of household debt holdings and identify several household characteristics associated with debt participation in three types of debt: secured debt, non-collateralized loans as well as overdrafts and/or credit card debt. Our results indicate that: a) households with middle aged heads tend to participate more and hold larger amounts of all three debt types, b) households with perceived credit constraints are more likely to take non-collateralized loans, and c) inability to finance consumption and willingness to take risks when making saving and investment decisions contribute to participation in overdrafts and/or credit card debt. |
| Keywords: | household debt, secured vs. unsecured debt, age profiles of borrowing, credit constraints, Household Finance and Consumption Survey |
| JEL: | G51 D15 G21 |
| Date: | 2020–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hnb:wpaper:61&r=all |
| By: | Jeff Larrimore; Mike Zabek |
| Abstract: | This first article looks at select results from the most recent Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking (SHED), originally fielded in October 2019, and from supplemental SHED surveys fielded in April and July 2020 to measure the economic impact of the pandemic. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19 |
| Date: | 2020–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:g00003:89150&r=all |
| By: | Jurgen Spaanderman |
| Abstract: | This study analyses some fundamental questions about the future of cash. According to the DNB Payments Strategy 2018-2021, the decreasing use of cash is putting pressure on the cash infrastructure. This raises all kinds of questions about the future of cash.1 Until recently, the downward trend of cash use was mainly a result of citizens' own choices, but since the coronavirus crisis they have also increasingly been forced to pay electronically. In this study we investigate the changing role of cash, the extent to which cash is still needed and how we should deal with its decreasing use. We also investigate whether this decreasing use jeopardises the independence of people who depend on cash, and whether the resilience and, consequently, the smooth operation of the payment system would be reduced if the use of cash as a back-up in the event of disruptions in electronic payments was lost Our starting point is DNB's current policy, which focuses on the general acceptance of cash, the availability of a network for depositing and withdrawing cash, measures to safeguard the reliability and security of cash, and reducing the cost of cash. This study ties in with the recent report on the position of cash by the National Forum on the Payment System (NFPS).2 The main stakeholders in the payment system are represented on this Forum to contribute to a socially robust, efficient and secure payment system. The present study builds on the cash trends described in the NFPS report, focusing on the importance of public money in physical and digital form, the significance of the specific properties of cash, the legal framework and the necessity of keeping cash easily accessible and available. |
| Date: | 2020–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dnb:dnbocs:1802&r=all |
| By: | Jeremy Srouji (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (... - 2019) - COMUE UCA - COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015 - 2019) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Côte d'Azur, ISS - International Institute of Social Studies (ISS), Erasmus University Rotterdam) |
| Abstract: | Since the oil price downturn of 2015, the United Arab Emirates and fellow Gulf Cooperation Council countries have worked hard to expand digital payments in the interest of improved tax and revenue collection, transparency, and security. Yet despite a deep transformation and diversification of their payment ecosystems and the formalization of plans to become "cashless economies" modelled on South Korea and Sweden, cash continues to dominate payments in both countries. While industry players typically attribute the prevalence of cash in the region to questions of infrastructure readiness, transaction costs, and cyber-security, this paper finds that plans to expand digital payments at the expense of cash may not be well-adapted to countries with high levels of socioeconomic inequality. It proposes a link between socioeconomic inequality and use of cash in emerging economies, and concludes that it may be better to not view the relationship between cash and digital payments in binary zero-sum terms, until there is a better understanding of the socioeconomic , technological, and policy context in which countries like South Korea and Sweden have managed to reduce their reliance on cash in favor of a diversified digital payments ecosystem . |
| Keywords: | digital payments,cashless economy,financial inclusion,complementary currencies,inequality,non-cash transactions,Gulf Cooperation Council,oil economies,remittances |
| Date: | 2020–10–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03015357&r=all |
| By: | Askenazy, Philippe (CNRS) |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a basic model with two types of capital: productive capital directly involved in the production process and capital devoted to monitoring workers. Surveillance capital intensifies workers' job strain, while wage recognition encourages their engagement. Firms face a double trade-off between the two types of capital and between incentives and labour costs. Under simple assumptions, up to a certain threshold, technological innovation improves productivity, wages and profits at the same pace, leading to a at labour share in income. Then, once the threshold is breached, profit-maximization initiates a transfer from productive capital to monitoring tools. This progressive shift generates a decline in the labour share and a productivity slowdown, despite greater job strain. The model suggests the possibility of a third phase in which productivity and wages recover. |
| Keywords: | declining labour share, productivity slowdown, effort-reward imbalances, surveillance |
| JEL: | O33 O40 J20 J30 |
| Date: | 2020–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13950&r=all |
| By: | Ankur Huria |
| Keywords: | Transport - Transport and Trade Logistics Information and Communication Technologies - ICT Economics Information and Communication Technologies - Information Security & Privacy International Economics and Trade - Trade Facilitation International Economics and Trade - Trade and Services Private Sector Development - E-Commerce |
| Date: | 2019–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:33174&r=all |
| By: | Jo Blanden; Sandra McNally; Gill Wyness |
| Abstract: | Debates about how to improve education and skills are likely to be an important theme in the run-up to the general election. This briefing summarises evidence on education and skills from the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP). It covers key issues across all educational phases, summarising what we know and considering some of the policy changes that might help to improve outcomes.1 Education plays many important roles in society, but this briefing focuses on economic objectives. Education and skills improve the productivity of individuals, helping them to advance in the labour market and increasing national productivity. Improving education and skills for the disadvantaged is key to helping to reduce inequality and improve social mobility across generations. |
| Keywords: | education, skills, international rankings, austerity, poor performing schools |
| Date: | 2019–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepeap:050&r=all |
| By: | Mengyi Sun; Jainabou Barry Danfa; Misha Teplitskiy |
| Abstract: | Peer review is widely regarded as essential for advancing scientific research. However, reviewers may be biased by authors' prestige or other characteristics. Double-blind peer review, in which the authors' identities are masked from the reviewers, has been proposed as a way to reduce reviewer bias. Although intuitive, evidence for the effectiveness of double-blind peer review in reducing bias is limited and mixed. Here, we examine the effects of double-blind peer review on prestige bias by analyzing the peer review files of 5027 papers submitted to the International Conference on Learning Representations (ICLR), a top computer science conference that changed its reviewing policy from single-blind peer review to double-blind peer review in 2018. We find that after switching to double-blind review, the scores given to the most prestigious authors significantly decreased. However, because many of these papers were above the threshold for acceptance, the change did not affect paper acceptance decisions significantly. Nevertheless, we show that double-blind peer review may have improved the quality of the selections by limiting other (non-author-prestige) biases. Specifically, papers rejected in the single-blind format are cited more than those rejected under the double-blind format, suggesting that double-blind review better identifies poorer quality papers. Interestingly, an apparently unrelated change - the change of rating scale from 10 to 4 points - likely reduced prestige bias significantly, to an extent that affected papers' acceptance. These results provide some support for the effectiveness of double-blind review in reducing prestige bias, while opening new research directions on the impact of peer review formats. |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2101.02701&r=all |
| By: | Hyun Jin Jang; Kiseop Lee; Kyungsub Lee |
| Abstract: | We propose the Hawkes flocking model that assesses systemic risk in high-frequency processes at the two perspectives -- endogeneity and interactivity. We examine the futures markets of WTI crude oil and gasoline for the past decade, and perform a comparative analysis with conditional value-at-risk as a benchmark measure. In terms of high-frequency structure, we derive the empirical findings. The endogenous systemic risk in WTI was significantly higher than that in gasoline, and the level at which gasoline affects WTI was constantly higher than in the opposite case. Moreover, although the relative influence's degree was asymmetric, its difference has gradually reduced. |
| Date: | 2020–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2012.04181&r=all |
| By: | Alguacil Marí, María Teresa; Lo Turco, Alessia; Martínez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada |
| Abstract: | We estimate the effect of the introduction of robots on the intensive and extensive margins of exports using a sample of Spanish manufacturing firms over the period 1994-2014. The empirical strategy used to identify the causal impact of robot adoption on the firm level export performance consists on combining propensity score matching (PSM) and difference in differences (DID) techniques. The results show that firms that start to use robots experience a sharp increase in their export probability, export sales and share of exports in total output and this result is robust to a wide array of checks. Robot adoption not only helps firms to start exporting and moves their specialisation towards intermediate products, but also favours export survival and export sales of exporting firms. The main results are driven by firms active in non-comparative advantage industries facing higher export sunk costs and market penetration costs and by those specialised in the production of intermediates, which can explain the increasing participation of Spain in global value chains. Inspection of the transmission channels suggests that the positive impact of robot adoption on exports could be driven by its positive effect on firm TFP and import probability. |
| Keywords: | robots,firm,exports,imports,intensive margin,extensive margin,PSM,DID |
| JEL: | F14 O14 O33 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cegedp:410&r=all |
| By: | Joel Cariolle (FERDI - Fondation pour les Etudes et Recherches sur le Développement International) |
| Abstract: | In this policy brief, we use survey data from the WBES to provide an empirical assessment of the contribution of digital technologies diffusion to African SMEs' performance. Compared to existing empirical evidence on the impacts of digital technologies on African firms, the quantitative analysis hereafter presented incorporates various novelties. |
| Date: | 2020–09–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03003914&r=all |
| By: | Jean-François Carpantier (corresponding member UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES)) |
| Abstract: | This paper revisits the golden constant - the gold property of keeping a constant purchasing power - via a comparison with a set of 17 commodities (energy, metals, agricultural products). We first use graphical devices of the CPI-deflated commodity prices, then stationarity tests designed to assess how fast the real prices of the commodities revert to their “constant” and, finally, measurements of their convergence speed. We find that the real price of gold is far from a constant, farther than the real price of most other commodities. We also note that the mean reversion of gold real price to its constant/average is weaker and slower than for most other commodities. These findings suggest that most commodities do a better job than gold when it comes to keeping a constant purchasing power. A portfolio of commodities would provide a liquidity similar to gold, while offering to investors a more stable protection against inflation. |
| Keywords: | gold; inflation; safe haven; portfolio diversification; hedging; commodities |
| JEL: | C22 G10 G11 G15 N20 |
| Date: | 2020–10–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctl:louvir:2020036&r=all |
| By: | David R. Agrawal. (University of Kentucky); Dirk Foremny (UB - Universitat de Barcelona); Clara Martinez-Toledano (WIL - World Inequality Lab , Columbia Business School - Columbia University [New York]) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the effect of wealth taxation on mobility and the consequences for tax revenue and wealth inequality. We exploit the unique decentralization of the Spanish wealth tax system in 2011—after which all regions levied positive tax rates except for Madrid—using linked administrative wealth and income tax records. We find that five years after the reform, the stock of wealthy individuals in the region of Madrid increases by 10% relative to other regions, while smaller tax differentials between other regions do not matter for mobility. We rationalize our findings with a theoretical model of evasion and migration, which suggests that evasion is the mechanism most consistent with all of the mobility response being driven by the paraíso fiscal. Combining new subnational wealth inequality series with our estimated elasticities, we show that Madrid's status as a tax haven reduces the effectiveness of raising tax revenue and exacerbates regional wealth inequalities. |
| Date: | 2020–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wilwps:halshs-03093674&r=all |
| By: | Audrey Ugarte; Onofre Alves Simões |
| Abstract: | Understanding mortality patterns and how they evolve in time has always been a challenging subject and many researchers have worked on it.We wish to enhance existing knowledge on the topic, by decomposing the effects on mortality of more than400 combinations of “age class/Mortality Chapter”,in three countries with different characteristics and for a period of 44 years. Using classic decomposition methods, it is possible to observe a steady increase in Life Expectancy at birth and a decrease in the Gender Gap, identifying the main contributors to the phenomena in terms of “age class/Mortality Chapter”.Another finding is the existence of important similarities among countries. |
| Keywords: | Life Expectancy, Mortality Chapters, Human Mortality and Cause of Death Databases, France, Czech Republic, USA |
| Date: | 2020–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ise:remwps:wp01542020&r=all |
| By: | Marshall B Reinsdorf |
| Abstract: | COVID-19 changed consumers’ spending patterns, making the CPI weights suddenly obsolete. In most regions, adjusting the CPI weights to account for the changes in spending patterns increases the estimate of inflation over the early months of the pandemic. Under-weighting of rising food prices and over-weighting of falling transport prices are the main causes of the underestimation of inflation. Updated CPI weights should be developed as soon as is feasible, but flux in spending patterns during the pandemic complicates the development as quickly as 2021 of weights that represent post-pandemic spending patterns. |
| Keywords: | Consumer price indexes;COVID-19 ;Inflation;Transportation;Housing;inflation measurement,Consumer Price Index,CPI,WP,CPI weight,base period,CPI compiler,budget share,CPI database,expenditure pattern,items CPI |
| Date: | 2020–11–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2020/224&r=all |
| By: | , AISDL |
| Abstract: | As the stock market has increased by 60% in prices from the bottom at the end of March, the total market capitalization now reached US$200 billion, equivalent to nearly 60% of the country's gross domestic product. |
| Date: | 2021–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:rqenv&r=all |
| By: | Jeffrey R. Franks; Bertrand Gruss; Carlos Mulas-Granados; Manasa Patnam; Sebastian Weber |
| Abstract: | European authorities introduced stringent lockdown measures in early 2020 to reduce the transmission of COVID-19. As the first wave of infection curves flattened and the outbreak appeared controlled, most countries started to reopen their economies albeit using diverse strategies. This paper introduces a novel daily database of sectoral reopening measures in Europe during the first-wave and documents that country plans differed significantly in terms of timing, pace, and sequencing of sectoral reopening measures. We then show that reopenings led to a recovery in mobility—a proxy for economic activity—but at the cost of somewhat higher infections. However, the experience with reopening reveals some original dimensions of this trade-off. First, the increase in COVID-19 infections after reopening appears less severe in fatality rates. Second, a given reopening step is associated with a worse reinfection outcome in countries that started reopening earlier on the infection curve or that opened all sectors at a fast pace in a relatively short time. Finally, while opening measures tend to have an amplification effect on subsequent cases when a large fraction of the economy is already open, this effect appears heterogenous across sectors. |
| Keywords: | Education;COVID-19 ;Health;Public expenditure review;Population and demographics;Pandemics,Lockdowns,Europe,WP,reopening policy,infection curve,infection amplification risk,infection dynamics,infection-death curve,outcome variable |
| Date: | 2020–10–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2020/218&r=all |
| By: | Badenes-Plá, Nuria; Blanco Palmero, Patricia; Gambau-Suelves, Borja; Navas Román, María; Villazán Pellejero, Noemí |
| Abstract: | This paper focuses on the study of the effects on social welfare generated by the scheme of joint taxation of the Spanish Personal Income Tax (PIT), whose peculiarity linked to its condition of optionality, allows the minimization of households´ tax bill. Different scenarios are simulated using the tax-benefit microsimulator of the European Commission – EUROMOD – with data from the Survey on Income and Living Conditions corresponding to 2016. In order to measure the welfare, the current PIT scheme is taken as reference and then it is compared with two alternatives, one, in which the families that currently can opt for this system are forced to pay jointly, and another, in which the only taxation scheme was individual. The results show that the Spanish system is revealed as a generator of additional welfare linked both to the circumstance of allowing an option to families, as well as to the fact of designing a specific system of joint taxation. In addition, it is shown that the policy recommendations would be different if only the study of inequality had been considered, since the net income gains of the current system offset the possible improvements in inequality of the simulated alternatives. Our results, therefore, also reinforce the convenience of adopting an approach that simultaneously considers efficiency and equity. |
| Date: | 2020–12–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ese:emodwp:em23-20&r=all |
| By: | Walid Matar; Rami Shabaneh (King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center) |
| Abstract: | The advent of American shale oil and its prospects for continued production growth have raised concerns about whether oil refineries can handle the increasingly lighter crude oil supply. To provide a perspective on this issue, we run a global oil refining model for the years from 2017 to 2030. The model’s objective is to maximize refining industry profits in eight global regions, taking into account around 100 grades of crude oil. |
| Keywords: | Crude oil, Oil refining, Optimization model, Shale oil |
| Date: | 2021–01–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:prc:dpaper:ks--2020-dp27&r=all |
| By: | Böck, Maximilian; Feldkircher, Martin |
| Abstract: | This article investigates how market participants adjust their expectations of interest rates at different maturities in response to a monetary policy and a central bank information shock for the US economy. The results show that market participants adjust their expectations faster to changes in interest rates compared to new releases of information by the central bank. This finding could imply that central bank information shocks are more opaque whereas a change in interest rates provides a stronger signal to the markets. Moreover, financial market agents respond with an initial underreaction to both shocks, potentially resembling inattention or overconfidence. Last, we find that the adjustment of expectations for yields with higher maturities takes considerably longer than for short-term yields. This finding is especially important for central banks since in the current low-interest rate environment monetary policy actions mainly consist of policies aimed at the long-end of the yield curve. |
| Keywords: | monetary policy, expectation formation, belief bias |
| Date: | 2020–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wus005:7909&r=all |
| By: | Bandara, KBTUK; Jayasundara, JMSB; Naradda Gamage, Sisira Kumara; Ekanayake, EMS; Rajapackshe, PSK; Abeyrathne, GAKNJ; Prasanna, RPIR |
| Abstract: | Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) are renowned as the engine of economic development in both developed and developing regions in the era of economic globalization. However, the existing knowledge in the field outlines numerous factors that hinder SMEs’ growth and survival and lead to business failures in terms of bankruptcy and liquidation. In such a context, Entrepreneurial Marketing (EM) is one of the critical determinants of growth and survival of the SME sector since their marketing approaches do not fit with established traditional marketing theories. Successful SMEs can acquire a competitive advantage on their unique benefit of “smallness,” often under limited resource conditions and uncertain market circumstances. Hence, this paper aims to review the literature on EM and its impact on the performance of SMEs, particularly in developed and developing regions. Accordingly, the review identified a range of EM dimensions that directly affect SME performance in developed and developing regions. The study also identified many other variables have a causal effect on the relationship between EM and SME performance, including external environment, internal venture environment, and venture approach to marketing. Finally, the study provides practical implications for practitioners and theoretical implications for researchers as an array of progressive areas for future endeavors. |
| Keywords: | Entrepreneurial Marketing, Marketing, Small and Medium Enterprises, SME Performance |
| JEL: | M2 M31 |
| Date: | 2020–11–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:104341&r=all |
| By: | Padmavathi N (Institute for Social and Economic Change) |
| Abstract: | The Indian food processing industry, which is labour-intensive in nature, plays a crucial role in the absorption of manpower essential for economic development of the country. The industry is, however, often labelled as a sink for unskilled masses to be absorbed without contributing substantially to the national income. Given this backdrop, the present study adopted the Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA) as part of examining the efficiency of the unorganised food processing industry using NSS 73rd (2015-16) round unit-level data. The analysis is carried out by grouping the entire industry under six sub-sectors. The study reveals that although capital plays a significant role in enhancing the output levels of firms, a disproportionate increase in the capital accumulation doesn’t necessarily enhance the efficiency of the firms in terms of improved output levels. The efficiency scores reveal that the industry has been unable to realise its full potential. The inefficiency model suggests that lack of skilled labour handling capital goods, under-provision of credit and absence of full-time workers are the major sources of observed inefficiency of enterprises. |
| Keywords: | Food processing industry; Economics; National Income |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sch:wpaper:449&r=all |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | This Financial System Stability Assessment paper on Singapore highlights the attractiveness of Singapore as a financial center is underpinned by strong economic fundamentals, sound economic policies, and a sophisticated financial oversight framework. The financial system is exposed to global and regional macrofinancial shocks through significant trade and financial channels but appears resilient even under adverse scenarios. However, banks’ US dollar liquidity is vulnerable to stress conditions. Fintech developments so far have focused on partnerships with existing financial institutions and do not appear to contribute significantly to systemic risk. Singapore authorities should continue to enhance its strong oversight of the financial system. Strengthening the framework for resolution and safety nets, namely by devoting more resources to the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS)’ Resolution Unit; and enhancing the oversight of MAS Electronic Payments System by ensuring more staffing resources are two other important areas for action. |
| Keywords: | Banking;Domestic systemically important banks;Stress testing;Insurance companies;Financial Sector Assessment Program;ISCR,CR,U.S. dollar,financial system,foreign exchange,Singapore dollar,exchange rate |
| Date: | 2019–07–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2019/224&r=all |
| By: | Thierry Roncalli; Fatma Karray-Meziou; Fran\c{c}ois Pan; Margaux Regnault |
| Abstract: | This article is part of a comprehensive research project on liquidity risk in asset management, which can be divided into three dimensions. The first dimension covers liability liquidity risk (or funding liquidity) modeling, the second dimension focuses on asset liquidity risk (or market liquidity) modeling, and the third dimension considers asset-liability liquidity risk management (or asset-liability matching). The purpose of this research is to propose a methodological and practical framework in order to perform liquidity stress testing programs, which comply with regulatory guidelines (ESMA, 2019) and are useful for fund managers. The review of the academic literature and professional research studies shows that there is a lack of standardized and analytical models. The aim of this research project is then to fill the gap with the goal to develop mathematical and statistical approaches, and provide appropriate answers. In this first part that focuses on liability liquidity risk modeling, we propose several statistical models for estimating redemption shocks. The historical approach must be complemented by an analytical approach based on zero-inflated models if we want to understand the true parameters that influence the redemption shocks. Moreover, we must also distinguish aggregate population models and individual-based models if we want to develop behavioral approaches. Once these different statistical models are calibrated, the second big issue is the risk measure to assess normal and stressed redemption shocks. Finally, the last issue is to develop a factor model that can translate stress scenarios on market risk factors into stress scenarios on fund liabilities. |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2101.02110&r=all |
| By: | World Bank Group |
| Keywords: | Agriculture - Agricultural Sector Economics Finance and Financial Sector Development - Finance and Development Finance and Financial Sector Development - Financial Literacy Finance and Financial Sector Development - Insurance & Risk Mitigation Health, Nutrition and Population - Health Insurance |
| Date: | 2019–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:33181&r=all |
| By: | Ongena, Steven; Pinoli, Sara; Rossi, Paola; Scopelliti, Alessandro |
| Abstract: | We study the effects of the diversification of funding sources on the financing conditions for firms. We exploit a regulatory reform which took place in Italy in 2012, i.e., the introduction of “minibonds”, which opened a new market-based funding opportunity for unlisted firms. Using the Italian Credit Register, we investigate the impact of minibond issuance on bank credit conditions for issuer firms, both at the firm-bank and firm level. We compare new loans granted to issuer firms with new loans concurrently granted to similar non-issuer firms. We find that issuer firms obtain lower interest rates on bank loans of the same maturity than non-issuer firms, suggesting an improvement in their bargaining power with banks. In addition, issuer firms reduce the amount of used bank credit but increase the overall amount of available external funds, pointing to a substitution with bank credit and to a diversification of corporate funding sources. Studying their ex-post performance, we find that issuer firms expand their total assets and fixed assets, and also raise their leverage. JEL Classification: G21, G23, G32, G38 |
| Keywords: | bank credit, capital markets, loan pricing, minibonds, SME finance |
| Date: | 2020–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20202508&r=all |
| By: | Calvi, Rossella (Rice University); Penglase, Jacob (San Diego State University); Tommasi, Denni (Monash University); Wolf, Alexander (Compass Lexecon) |
| Abstract: | The structure of a family may have important consequences for the material well-being of its members. For example, in large families, an individual must share resources with many others, but she may benefit from economies of scale in consumption. In this paper, we study individual consumption in different types of households, with a focus on family structures that are common in developing countries. Based on a collective household model, we develop a new methodology to identify the intra-household allocation of resources and the extent of consumption sharing. We apply our methodology using data from Bangladesh and Mexico, and use the model estimates to compute poverty rates for men, women, and children. Contrary to existing poverty calculations that ignore either intra-household inequality or economies of scale in consumption, ours take into account both dimensions. |
| Keywords: | collective model, household bargaining, resource shares, scale economies, Barten scales, indifference scales, poverty |
| JEL: | D13 D11 D12 C31 I32 |
| Date: | 2020–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13948&r=all |
| By: | Masahiro Endoh (Faculty of Business and Commerce, Keio University) |
| Abstract: | This study estimates the trade effect on wage inequality of Japanese manufacturing workers, with consideration of worker and firm heterogeneity. Parameters are obtained from regression results of hourly wage by using constructed worker-establishment panel data. Estimated wage effects differ largely by trade indexes, and the logarithmic real trade value is assessed to be a more appropriate measure for trade in this study. The estimated wage change is positively larger for higher-paid workers, who are employed by larger firms in industries of which Japan has a comparative advantage, while it is negatively larger for lower-paid workers. It implies that wage inequality between industry-size-skill groups is increased by international trade in Japan. However, the actual evolution of wage inequality during 1998-2013 is not successfully explained by the predicted change of wage inequality from international trade. International trade has a potential to widen wage inequality, but its effect is marginal for actual wage inequality compared with other economic and social shocks. |
| Keywords: | Firm heterogeneity, Skill premiums, Wage inequality, Worker heterogeneity |
| JEL: | F16 F66 J31 |
| Date: | 2020–09–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:keo:dpaper:2020-017&r=all |
| By: | Barbara J. Lipman; Ann Marie Wiersch |
| Abstract: | This first article describes what small business owners encounter when searching for financing on the websites of online lenders. |
| Date: | 2019–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:g00003:89158&r=all |
| By: | Kapoor, Shreya; Deb Pal, Barun; Singhal, Aditi; Anantha, K. H. |
| Abstract: | Technology adoption has been advocated as an important way to improve agricultural productivity and welfare of farmers in the semi-arid regions across the globe. The Government of Karnataka implemented the Bhoosamrudhi program in four districts of the state (Bidar, Chikballapur, Dharwad, and Udupi) as a pilot project to increase the crop yield and income of smallholder farmers. This program was launched on the theme of technology adoption along with convergence among different departments of agriculture. Farmers have been classified into five categories based on their levels of technology intensification to assess the impact of different levels of technology intensification on their welfare. The research is built on a primary survey conducted in pilot districts of the state in 2018 over a sample of 1,465 farmer households. The results generated using econometric methods of propensity score matching (PSM) and inverse probability weighted with regression adjustment (IPWRA) highlight that the higher the intensification, the higher the net returns to the farmers. The results state that non-adopters would receive a benefit of an additional Rs.3200 per month if they adopt at least one level of technology intensification. Hence, this program turned out to be a successful model for smallholder farmers in semi-arid regions of India. Steps should be taken to maintain and expand the momentum of adoption to ensure food and livelihood security in the economy. |
| Keywords: | INDIA; SOUTH ASIA; ASIA; technology; intensification; farmers; welfare; impact assessment; econometric models; smallholders; crop intensification; technology intensification; technology adoption; Propensity score matching (PSM) |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:1982&r=all |
| By: | Swati Dhingra; Thomas Sampson |
| Abstract: | Since the UK voted to leave the European Union in June 2016, Brexit has dominated UK politics and economic policy. Three and a half years after the referendum, the UK is yet to leave the EU, there is no certainty over if or when Brexit will take place, and the shape of future UK-EU relations is yet to be determined. |
| Keywords: | Brexit, trade, customs union, UK-EU border, 2019 General Election |
| Date: | 2019–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepeap:048&r=all |
| By: | Joscha Beckmann (Universität Greifswald); Mariarosaria Comunale (Bank of Lithuania & Vilnius University) |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses the financial channel of exchange rate fluctuations for emerging countries and the link to the conventional trade channel. We analyse whether the effective exchange rate affects GDP growth, the domestic credit and the global liquidity measure as the credit in foreign currencies, and how global liquidity affects GDP growth. We make use of local projections in order to look at the shocks transmission covering 11 emerging market countries for the period 2000Q1-2016Q3. We find that foreign denominated credit plays an important macroeconomic role, operating through various transmission channels. The direction of effects depends on country characteristics and is also related to the policy stance among countries. We find that domestic appreciations increase demand with regard to foreign credit, implying positive effects on investment and GDP growth. However, this is valid only in the short-run; in the medium-long run, an increase of credit denominated in foreign currency (for instance, due to appreciation) decreases GDP. The financial channel works mostly in the short-run except for Brazil, Malaysia and Mexico, where the trade channel always dominates. Possibly there is a substitution effect between domestic and foreign credit in the case of shocks in exchange rates. |
| Keywords: | emerging markets, financial channel, exchange rates, global liquidity |
| JEL: | F31 F41 F43 G15 |
| Date: | 2020–12–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lie:wpaper:83&r=all |
| By: | Cyril Grunspan (ESILV Léonard de Vinci); Joris van der Hoeven (LIX - Laboratoire d'informatique de l'École polytechnique [Palaiseau] - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - X - École polytechnique) |
| Abstract: | It is known that an adaptation of Newton's method allows for the computation of functional inverses of formal power series. We show that it is possible to successfully use a similar algorithm in a fairly general analytical framework. This is well suited for functions that are highly tangent to identity and that can be expanded with respect to asymptotic scales of ‘‘exp-log functions''. We next apply our algorithm to various well-known functions coming from the world of quantitative finance. In particular, we deduce asymptotic expansions for the inverses of the Gaussian and the Black–Scholes functions. |
| Keywords: | asymptotic expansion,algorithm,Hardy field,pricing,exp-log function,Black-Scholes formula,Asymptotic expansion,BlackScholes formula A.M.S. subject classification: 68W30,41A60,91G80,16A12 |
| Date: | 2020–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01573621&r=all |
| By: | Liu, Meiping |
| Abstract: | China has developed into a highly diversified economy. Southeast China is one important region with rapid economic development and generally considered to contain Zhejiang, Fujian and Guangdong. The rapid development of Southeast China under structural adjustment is an exploration of the development of the forefront of China's reform and opening up. Structural adjustment is a major theoretical and practical improvement. Through the academic exploration of the current industrial structure transformation and upgrading, this paper deepens the understanding of Southeast China's high-quality development and helps to promote the construction of the modern economic system. Based on the exploration of the characteristics of the transition period of economic construction. This paper examines the characteristics and advantages of Southeast China's high-quality development and the challenges that may be faced in subsequent development. This paper makes recommendations for economic system reform and government services. |
| Date: | 2020–12–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:a7qgf&r=all |
| By: | Hao Dong; Taisuke Otsu; Luke Taylor |
| Abstract: | We propose a semiparametric estimator for varying coefficient models when the regressors in the nonparametric component are measured with error. Varying coefficient models are an extension of other popular semiparametric models, including partially linear and nonparametric additive models, and deliver an attractive solution to the curse-of-dimensionality. We use deconvolution kernel estimation in a two-step procedure and show that the estimator is consistent and asymptotically normally distributed. We do not assume that we know the distribution of the measurement error a priori, nor do we assume that the error is symmetrically distributed. Instead, we suppose we have access to a repeated measurement of the noisy regressor and use the approach of Li and Vuong (1998) based on Kotlarski's (1967) identity. We show that the convergence rate of the estimator is significantly reduced when the distribution of the measurement error is assumed unknown and possibly asymmetric. Finally, we study the small sample behaviour of our estimator in a simulation study. |
| JEL: | C14 |
| Date: | 2019–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:stiecm:607&r=all |
| By: | Tenisha J. Brown; PJ Tabit |
| Abstract: | This issue of Consumer & Community Context contains four articles presenting analysis of how consumers, communities, and community development organizations are responding to the pandemic. |
| Date: | 2020–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:g00003:89149&r=all |
| By: | Kostopoulos, Dimitrios; Meyer, Steffen; Uhr, Charline |
| Abstract: | We relate time-varying aggregate ambiguity (V-VSTOXX) to individual investor trading. We use the trading records of more than 100,000 individual investors from a large German online brokerage from March 2010 to December 2015. We find that an increase in ambiguity is associated with increased investor activity. It also leads to a reduction in risk-taking which does not reverse over the following days. When ambiguity is high, the effect of sentiment looms larger. Survey evidence reveals that ambiguity averse investors are more prone to ambiguity shocks. Our results are robust to alternative survey-, newspaper- or market-based ambiguity measures. |
| Keywords: | ambiguity,uncertainty,individual investor,risk-taking,trading behavior |
| JEL: | D10 D81 D90 G11 G40 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:safewp:297&r=all |
| By: | Marco Castillo; John List; Ragan Petrie; Anya Samek |
| Abstract: | We use field experiments with nearly 900 children to investigate how skills developed at ages 3-5 drive later-life outcomes. We find that skills map onto three distinct factors - cognitive skills, executive functions, and economic preferences. Returning to the children up to 7 years later, we find that executive functions, but not cognitive skills, predict the likelihood of receiving disciplinary referrals. Economic preferences have an independent effect: children who displayed impatience at ages 3-5 were more likely to receive disciplinary referrals. Random assignment to a parenting program reduced disciplinary referrals. This effect was not mediated by skills or preferences. |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:feb:artefa:00723&r=all |
| By: | Arun Advani (University of Warwick [Coventry], IFS - Institut für Sozialforschung, LSE - London School of Economics and Political Science); Andy Summers (LSE - London School of Economics and Political Science) |
| Abstract: | Aggregate taxable capital gains in UK have tripled in past decade. Using confidential administrative data on the universe of UK taxpayers, we show that including gains changes the picture of UK inequality over the past two decades. These taxable gains are largely repackaged income, so their exclusion biases the picture of inequality. Including them changes who is at the top of the distribution, adding more business owners and older people. The share of income plus gains (both pre-and post-tax) going to the top 1% is 3pp higher than for income only, and this gap has been steadily rising. |
| Keywords: | inequality,capital gains,income shifting,top shares |
| Date: | 2020–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-03022609&r=all |
| By: | Carl Singleton (Department of Economics, University of Reading); Alex Bryson (Department of Quantitative Social Science, Institute of Education); Peter Dolton (Department of Economics, University of Sussex); J. James Reade (Department of Economics, University of Reading); Dominik Schreyer (Wissenschaftliche Hochschule für Unternehmensführung (WHU)) |
| Abstract: | The economics of sport and how sport provides insights into economics have experienced exogenous shocks from Covid-19, facilitating many natural experiments. These have provided partial answers to questions of: how airborne viruses may spread in crowds; how crowds respond to the risk and information about infection; how the absence of crowds may affect social pressure and arbitration decisions; and how quickly betting markets respond to new information. We review this evidence and advise how sports economics research could continue to be most valuable to policymakers. |
| Keywords: | Sports Economics, Coronavirus, Natural Experiments, Referee Bias, Social Pressure, Prediction Markets |
| JEL: | D91 L83 Z20 |
| Date: | 2021–01–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rdg:emxxdp:em-dp2021-01&r=all |
| By: | Christine Arriola; Sophie Guilloux-Nefussi; Seung-Hee Koh; Przemyslaw Kowalski; Elena Rusticelli; Frank van Tongeren |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 outbreak and the resulting disruptions in supply chains of some manufacturing and medical products have renewed the debate on costs and benefits of globalisation and, particularly, on risks associated with international fragmentation of production in global value chains (GVCs). While GVCs helped addressing supply shortages in several cases already during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, much of the policy debate has concentrated on whether the gains from expanding international specialisation in GVCs are worth the associated risks of transmission of shocks and even whether governments should use policy tools to ‘re-localise’ GVCs. But re-localising may also mean less diversification and thereby limit the scope for cushioning shocks. This paper builds on on-going OECD analysis and aims at providing empirical evidence to inform and guide discussion on these questions. First, it reviews briefly the key issues and lessons learnt from the past, and identifies the main features of world trade and GVC participation that influence exposures to risks in supply chains. Subsequently, it presents key results of a set of economic model simulations conducted using the OECD’s computable general equilibrium (CGE) trade model METRO to shed light on the consequences of a stylised re-localisation policy scenario. In this scenario, countries are less exposed to foreign shocks, but they are also less efficient and less able to cushion shocks through trade. Quantitatively, the latter effect tends to dominate: re-localising GVCs would make the economy in most countries both less efficient and less stable. The economic case for policy-induced reshoring of GVCs is therefore weak. There is nevertheless scope for governments to join efforts with businesses to improve risk preparedness. |
| Keywords: | diversification, global value chains, relocalisation, shocks, trade |
| JEL: | F13 F23 F60 |
| Date: | 2020–12–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1637-en&r=all |
| By: | Wouter Bossu; Cory Hillier; Wolfgang Bergthaler |
| Abstract: | Recent financial crises including the ongoing one caused by the COVID-19 pandemic have consistently drawn attention to the need to strengthen the quality of public debt management in emerging markets and developing countries. Deeper and more efficient domestic government debt markets—being, a key segment of the LCBM for many emerging markets and developing economies—play a key role in reducing financial vulnerability to shocks and enable governments to finance critical economic and fiscal policy measures in response to them. Policymakers and international organizations have long recognized that developing and strengthening LCBMs is a key policy prescription to sound public debt management. Robust legal and regulatory frameworks are recognized as being critical building blocks for the structure, development and functioning of LCBMs. This Working Paper seeks to outline a strategically anchored methodology that can be applied to design, build and implement the legal and tax foundations for the development of LCBMs that would adequately address common challenges and impediments. |
| Keywords: | Securities;Legal support in revenue administration;Tax law;Bonds;Capital markets;local currency bond markets,development,financial stability,legal and tax frameworks,WP,repurchase agreement,dematerialized securities,securities lending,settlement system,commercial paper |
| Date: | 2020–11–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2020/258&r=all |
| By: | Tahsin Saadi Sedik; Rui Xu |
| Abstract: | In this paper we analyze the dynamics among past major pandemics, economic growth, inequality, and social unrest. We provide evidence that past major pandemics, even though much smaller in scale than COVID-19, have led to a significant increase in social unrest by reducing output and increasing inequality. We also find that higher social unrest, in turn, is associated with lower ourput and higher inequality, pointing to a vicious cycle. Our results suggest that without policy measures, the COVID-19 pandemic will likely increase inequality, trigger social unrest, and lower future output in the years to come. |
| Keywords: | Income inequality;Vector autoregression;Communicable diseases;Income distribution;Personal income;Covid-19,Pandemics,Inequality,Social Unrest,WP,pandemic event,panel VAR model,disorder score,panel vector autoregressions,pandemic dummy |
| Date: | 2020–10–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2020/216&r=all |
| By: | Vijayalakshmi S; Krishna Raj (Institute for Social and Economic Change) |
| Abstract: | India is one among the fastest growing economies in the world with an average growth rate of eight per cent of Gross Domestic Product in the last decade. The impact of increase in GDP can be observed in many sectors of the economy and transport is not devoid of it. Micro-economic theories firmly established the relationship between income and consumption having direct and positive impact. This can be observed in case of India’s per capita income and personal vehicular growth. In this line, the paper tried to analyse this relationship by compiling time-series data of total registered vehicles and personal income from 1960-2015. Since, vehicular population has influenced other important variables like urbanisation and employment, the paper tried to model their effect under Autoregressive - Distributed Lag model (ARDL) and proves their long run co-integration.Though increase in income and vehicles tend to show positive sign of economic growth, its negative implications cannot be ignored. The paper also brings out the emergence of negative externalities of growth of vehicular population by way of deteriorating air quality of the country, which has affected the GDP. World Bank (2013) estimates show that three percent of GDP is lost due to air pollution in India which is commonly attributed to vehicular emission |
| Keywords: | Microeconomics; Income and consumption; Econometrics |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sch:wpaper:439&r=all |
| By: | Tatiyaporn SIRISAKDAKUL (Faculty of Liberal Arts and Management Science, Kasetsart University, Thailand Author-2-Name: Butsakorn KHORNJAMNONG Author-2-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Liberal Arts and Management Science, Kasetsart University, Thailand Author-3-Name: Author-3-Workplace-Name: Author-4-Name: Author-4-Workplace-Name: Author-5-Name: Author-5-Workplace-Name: Author-6-Name: Author-6-Workplace-Name: Author-7-Name: Author-7-Workplace-Name: Author-8-Name: Author-8-Workplace-Name:) |
| Abstract: | Objective - This study aimed to investigate the level of understanding of financial knowledge and the relationship between financial literacy and retirement planning of working-age people. Methodology – The participants of the study were residents of Sakon Nakhon, Nakhon Phanom and Mukdahan, Thailand. The questionnaire is the research tool for collecting data with 1,200 adults, aged between 25-60. This study will use a descriptive statistical analysis to describe frequency, percentage, mean and mode. Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method is widely used to describe the relationship between financial literacy and retirement planning. Findings – The result show that the level of education has a positive relationship with financial literacy. Most of middle lower income people have a moderate to low level of the basic financial literacy and are not involved in retirement planning. The respondents of women in Sakon Nakhon, Nakhon Phanom and Mukdahan have more understanding of retirement planning than men; this result is different to the previous research undertaken by Lusardi and Mitchell (2011), Bucher-Koenen and Lusardi (2011) Grohmann et al. (2016). Novelty – This paper will study the level of understanding of financial knowledge and the relationship between financial literacy and retirement planning of working-age people. Most of the previous research concentrated on people who live in the big city; there was. little focus on people living in the countryside, especially in the Northeastern part of Thailand. Not too many papers have focused on the working-age people, who in due course will contribute to Thailand becoming an Aging Society. It could help to the government, labor union, Bureau of Financial Inclusion Policy and Development and related departments to know the level of financial knowledge and retirement planning. So, they could provide guidance of financial literacy to community. Type of Paper - Empirical |
| Keywords: | Financial literacy; Retirement planning; Working-age people |
| JEL: | E21 G02 I22 J26 |
| Date: | 2020–12–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gtr:gatrjs:jfbr177&r=all |
| By: | Tolulope T. Osinubi (Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, Nigeria); Simplice A. Asongu (Yaoundé, Cameroon) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the effect of globalization on female economic participation (FEP) in MINT (Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria & Turkey) and BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China & South Africa) countries between 2004 and 2018. Four measures of globalization are employed and sourced from KOF globalization index, 2018, while the female labour force participation rate is a proxy for FEP. The empirical evidence is based on Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimators. The findings of the PMG estimator from the Panel ARDL method reveal that political and overall globalization in MINT and BRICS countries have a positive impact on FEP, whereas social globalization exerts a negative impact on FEP in the long-run. It is observed that economic globalization has no long-run effect on FEP. Contrarily, all the measures of globalization posit no short-run effect on FEP in the short-run. This supports the argument that globalization has no immediate effect on FEP. Thus, it is recommended that both MINT and BRICS countries should find a way of improving the process of globalization generally to empower women to be involved in economic activities. This study complements the extant literature by focusing on how globalization dynamics influence FEP in the MINT and BRICS countries. |
| Keywords: | Globalization; female; gender; labour force participation; MINT and BRICS countries |
| JEL: | E60 F40 F59 D60 |
| Date: | 2020–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:abh:wpaper:20/058&r=all |
| By: | Guilhem Lecouteux (Université Côte d'Azur; GREDEG CNRS) |
| Abstract: | The aim of this paper is to critically assess the argument advanced in behavioural welfare economics that preference inconsistency and violations of rational choice theory are the result of errors, and offer a direct justification for paternalistic regulations. I argue that (i) this position relies on a psychologically and philosophically problematic account of agency, (ii) the normative argument in favour of coherence is considerably weaker than usually considered, and (iii) BWE fails to justify why agents ought to be coherent by neoclassical standards. I conclude by discussing how BWE could still justify paternalistic regulations by endorsing a more institutionalist perspective. |
| Keywords: | behavioural welfare economics; preference inconsistency; consumer sovereignty; paternalism |
| JEL: | B40 D01 D60 D91 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gre:wpaper:2021-01&r=all |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | This technical note Financial Stability Analysis and Stress Testing on Singapore contributes to the assessment of the stability and soundness of the financial sector with a comprehensive set of risk analyses. The work combines an examination of key risk indicators with detailed stress tests, which simulate the health of banks, insurers, nonfinancial corporates and households under severe yet plausible (counterfactual) adverse scenarios. Scenarios include global financial market turmoil, a major slowdown of economic activity in China, cyber-attacks and extreme flooding. The analyses include simulations of contagion within the international banking network, within the domestic banking system and between different types of financial institutions in the financial system. The stress tests reveal that the financial system is broadly resilient to severe adverse shocks; however, foreign exchange liquidity is a key vulnerability. The analyses suggest that Monetary Authority of Singapore should continue strengthening its surveillance by closing data gaps and developing its analytical tools. Further data collection on domestic interlinkages, household mortgage debt at the borrower level, insurers’ balance sheets would enhance surveillance. |
| Keywords: | Stress testing;Banking;Domestic systemically important banks;Insurance companies;Capital adequacy requirements;ISCR,CR,U.S. dollar,financial market,banking group,financial system,sensitivity analysis,solvency stress tests |
| Date: | 2019–07–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2019/228&r=all |
| By: | Kosuke Suzuki; Manasit Choomsai Na Ayudhaya; Patrick Lenain |
| Abstract: | Services are an important part of global economic activity and of international trade. Nevertheless, compared to its very large tourism sector, the sector of high-end business services in Thailand remains small. As IT and information, and professional services are traded indirectly through value chains and are now crucial elements of manufacturing, strengthening these services would benefit Thailand in its post-COVID-19 participation of global value chains, enhancing the competitiveness of its manufacturers. This paper analyses how Thailand can seize the opportunity of growing international trade in services. It points out that liberalising services sector markets would strengthen the competitiveness of the services sectors and boost productivity not only in the sectors, but also in manufacturing sectors that rely on these services as input. In this regard, Thailand can benefit more from service-oriented Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs). Moreover, eliminating FDI restrictions would not only be crucial to spur employment and exports, but also benefit consumers. The paper identifies that, to maximise the benefits of services trade integration, Thailand needs to step up policies to re- and up-skill workers and make the labour market more flexible. |
| Keywords: | Global Value Chains (GVCs), Thailand, Trade in Services |
| JEL: | F13 F14 F16 F17 F21 F63 F66 F68 L80 |
| Date: | 2020–12–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1642-en&r=all |
| By: | Margaux MacDonald; Roberto Piazza; Johannes Eugster; Florence Jaumotte |
| Abstract: | Based on an empirical gravity model of sectoral bilateral trade, we uncover three features of bilateral trade balances. First, the difficulty of gravity models in fitting the observed level of bilateral balances is likely due to the presence of unobservable bilateral trade costs. Second, the model fit improves drastically when we focus on changes over time of the balances. Third, using a log linear approximation we show that changes in bilateral trade balances over the past two decades were driven almost entirely by changes in the same macro factors that determine countries’ aggregate balances – changes in bilateral trade costs, including tariffs, played therefore only a negligible role. This conclusion provides new support for the view that bilateral balances are, for practical purposes, not relevant to the conduct of macroeconomic policy. |
| Keywords: | Trade balance;Plurilateral trade;Exports;Gravity models;Trade relations;WP,bilateral trade balances,trade cost,predicted trade balance,aggregate trade balances,log-linearization approximation error |
| Date: | 2020–09–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2020/210&r=all |
| By: | Cândida Ferreira |
| Abstract: | The paper tests the existence of long-term relations, measured through cointegration,between all the IMF financial development indices and some macroeconomic performance indicators applying panel cointegration tests in a panel with 46 countries, and in a panel including only the sub-sample of the 28 EU countriesover the interval 1990-2017. Overall, there are no significant differences between the results obtained for whole sample and the panel including only the EU countries. The results obtained clearly point to the existence of cointegration between the financial development indices and the real GrossDomestic Product, aswell aswith the inflation, the unemployment rate, and very particularly, with the current account, and with the net international investment position. The results also show there are no significant differences between the results obtained for the financial institutions and for the financial markets. Moreover, the results related to the specific aspects addressed by the IMF indices very well demonstrate that much ore mportant han he imple access to or the depth of the financial institutions nd markets is the efficiency of these institutions and markets. |
| Keywords: | Financial development; IMF Financial development indices; macroeconomic performance; cointegration; panel cointegration tests. |
| JEL: | E44 E02 F36 O43 C13 |
| Date: | 2020–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ise:remwps:wp01552020&r=all |
| By: | Fabian Lipinsky; Mirela S. Miescu |
| Abstract: | Motivated by the increasing interest in analyzing the links between the financial sector and the real economy, we develop a macro-financial structural model with two novel features. First, we include idiosyncratic and aggregate risk in a tractable general equilibrium model. This allows us to capture sectoral dynamics and the probabilities of default of both firms and financial intermediaries, and the feedback between them. Second, we introduce the concept of sticky (observed) versus flexible (agents’ target) capital. The identified differences between realized and optimal values — the capital gaps of firms and banks — lead financial and business cycles, and cause gaps in credit spreads and asset prices. The model can be used as a signaling device for macroprudential intervention, and to gauge whether macroprudential action was successful ex-post (e.g., whether gaps were closed). For illustration, we show how the analysis of gaps can be applied to the U.S. economy using Bayesian estimation techniques. |
| Keywords: | Nonbank financial institutions;Mutual funds;Financial statements;Credit;Financial crises;WP,capital gap,FIs capital,adjustment cost,cash flow,capital level,risk shock |
| Date: | 2020–09–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2020/209&r=all |
| By: | Golubev, Artem (Голубев, Артем) (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, North-West Institute of Management); Rodionov, Aleksandr (Родионов, Александр) (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, North-West Institute of Management); Ryabov, Oleg (Рябов, Олег) (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, North-West Institute of Management) |
| Abstract: | The paper analyzes the development of the modern Russian banking system in the conditions of the trend of digital transformation. The aim of the work was to analyze the rehabilitation policy of the Central Bank in the field of banking sector regulation. The working hypothesis was that the reorganization of the financial system leads to an increase in monopolistic trends in the banking sector, while solving the key problems of the Russian banking system: a more objective reflection of problem assets in the balance of the banking system is achieved; the economic role of the “schematic” capital formation of the Russian banking system is declining, with the simultaneous growth of state ownership in the Russian banking system; a business model based on private business lending to its owners becomes inefficient. The paper conducts a qualitative and quantitative analysis of the development of the modern Russian banking system. A critical model of the activity of the Central Bank has been proposed, which allows a system analysis of the development of the Russian banking system at the transformation stage. The study clearly showed that monopolization of the banking sector leads to a decrease in the riskiness of the market strategy of individual banks, however, there is an increase in the probability of systemic shocks of the banking system as a whole. |
| Keywords: | Digital transformation, Russian banking system |
| Date: | 2020–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:ppaper:szf112001&r=all |
| By: | Frederic Lambert; Andrea Pescatori; Frederik G Toscani |
| Abstract: | Labor market informality is a pervasive feature of most developing economies. Motivated by the empirical regularity that the labor informality rate falls with GDP per capita, both at business cycle frequency and in a cross-section of countries, and that the Okun's coefficient falls with the level of labor informality, we build a small open-economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with two sectors, formal and informal, which can replicate these key stylized facts. The model is calibrated to Colombia. The results show that labor market and tax reforms play an important role in changing the informality rate but also caution against over-optimism - with low GDP per capita, informality will always be relatively high as there is insufficient demand for formal goods. Quantitatively we find that higher productivity in the formal sector is key in explaining the difference between Colombia and countries with significantly lower informality. We use the model to study how labor informality and labor market frictions mediate the cyclical response of the economy to shocks, including commodity price shocks which are particularly relevant in Latin America. Informality is shown to play an important role as a shock absorber with the informal-formal margin limiting movements in the employed-unemployed margin. |
| Keywords: | Total factor productivity;Labor;Labor markets;Business cycles;Unemployment;labor market,informality,business cycle,WP,commodity price shock,frictions affect labor market dynamics,GDP growth,sector TFP,labor market informality |
| Date: | 2020–11–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2020/256&r=all |
| By: | Indrajit Bairagya; Rohit Mukerji (Institute for Social and Economic Change) |
| Abstract: | The significance of measuring non-cognitive skills of school children and understanding its importance in predicting academic performance is an area of research that has become increasingly prominent over the years. The objective of this paper is to measure the non-cognitive skills of students and also to examine its impact on the cognitive learning outcomes. Our methodology for constructing an index for non-cognitive skills is broadly divided into two parts. In the first part, eight sub-indices viz. consistency, perseverance of effort, growth mindset, conscientiousness, academic behaviour, self-regulated learning, self-control, school climate have been constructed for each of the aforementioned parameters using the technique of Polychoric-Principal Component Analysis. In the second stage, an overall index for non-cognitive skills has been constructed using these eight sub-indices. Further, cognitive learning outcomes have been measured on a test performed for the students of Standard IV on their mathematics competency. Results show that an overall non-cognitive skills index is a responsible factor behind a gloomy picture of Mathematics learning outcomes. Moreover, five indicators of non-cognitive skills, such as Perseverance of Effort, Growth Mindset, Conscientiousness, Academic Behaviour and Consistency show a significant positive correlation with the Mathematics test scores. Hence, an argument can be made for inculcating policy directives that aid in the development of non-cognitive skills and promote non-cognitive skills among children that shape their cognitive learning outcomes. |
| Keywords: | Cognitive learning; Non-cognitive; Elementary education; India |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sch:wpaper:452&r=all |
| By: | Meenakshi Rajeev; Pranav Nagendran (Institute for Social and Economic Change) |
| Abstract: | The supply chain of fish and seafood products in India involves a vast network of intermediaries (primarily distributors) who retain a large share of the price spread between what is paid to fishermen and what is paid by consumers. This results in high fish prices and losses due to spoilage (MOFPI Report 2017). It is deemed beneficial both for producer and consumer to have fish processing firms internalise some of the intermediaries’ activities. These firms will undertake such activities only if they get adequate incentive. By considering Indian fish processing firms over three consecutive years, we examine the viability of internalising distribution and other activities using a 2SLS regression. We show that firms, which undertake the responsibility of distribution themselves, raise better returns to the factors of production (within the firm), and enjoy higher profit. These results indicate that policy support aimed at reducing the length of supply chain, for example, by forming fishermen cooperatives and linking them to the processing firms that undertake the responsibility for distribution activity, can be beneficial for both firms as well as consumers. |
| Keywords: | Seafood products; Fisheries; Fish processing firms |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sch:wpaper:445&r=all |
| By: | Balazs Egert |
| Abstract: | This paper summarises earlier OECD work aimed at quantifying the impact of structural reforms on economic outcomes. It overviews i.) insights obtained for the linear relationships linking policies and economic outcomes (including multi-factor productivity, capital deepening and employment) for an almost complete set of OECD countries, ii.) non-linear results on how policies interact with each other in OECD countries, and iii.) results extended for emerging-market economies looking at whether policy effects vary across countries depending on the level of economic development and whether institutions have an influence on economic outcomes. The paper lists of policies and institutions that could be used to quantify the effect of reforms. It also gives some guidance on how to quantify reforms in OECD and non-OECD countries. It provides mid-point estimates of the long-run effects on per capita income levels through the three supply-side channels. Finally, it raises the issue of estimation and model uncertainty. |
| Keywords: | structural reform, product and labour market regulation, institutions, productivity, investment, employment, OECD, emerging market |
| JEL: | D24 E17 E22 E24 J08 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_8778&r=all |
| By: | Albacete, Nicolás; Fessler, Pirmin; Lindner, Peter |
| Abstract: | This study examines interviewer effects on household non-response in the three waves of the Household Finance and Consumption Survey (HFCS) in Austria. We exploit the rare opportunity to combine this wealth survey data, accompanied by a large set of paradata on all households including non-respondents, with two other sets of data, namely (i) an administrative dataset on income and (ii) a survey on interviewer characteristics. These characteristics include measures of the social background, income and wealth, and personality traits of the interviewers. Our multilevel benchmark model shows that the proportion of the variation in response behaviour that can be explained at the interviewer level has decreased from about one-third in the first wave of the HFCS to about 7% in the third wave. Using further specifications of our multilevel model we find that the following interviewer characteristics are positively related to household response: having a university degree, being married, being a homeowner and having a less open personality. At the same time, we find a highly significant negative relationship between survey participation and mean wage in the household’s municipality JEL Classification: X01, X02, X03 |
| Keywords: | HFCS, interviewer effects, interviewer survey, unit non-response |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbsps:202139&r=all |
| By: | Olena Havrylchyk (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Labex ReFi - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne); Aref Mahdavi-Ardekani (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the short_term impact of borrowing via lending_based crowdfunding on performance and health of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in France. We find that firms borrowing from lending-based crowdfunding platforms are more dynamic (higher asset growth and higher profitability) and innovative, but they have lower leverage, less cash, higher funding costs and less tangible assets that could be pledged as as collateral. To account for this selection bias, we construct three control groups by using Propensity Score Matching, Mahalanobis Distance Matching and Coarsened Exact Matching methods and then run difference-in-difference regressions. We find that borrowing via lending-based crowdfunding platforms increases SMEs' leverage and interest rate burden in the short-term, but these impacts disappear after two years. We observe asset growth during the year of borrowing, but no impact on sales growth, investment, employment or profitability. |
| Keywords: | lending-based crowdfunding,firm financing,firm performance,informational asymmetry |
| Date: | 2020–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-02994903&r=all |
| By: | Jonathan Tuck; Shane Barratt; Stephen Boyd |
| Abstract: | In this paper we develop models of asset return mean and covariance that depend on some observable market conditions, and use these to construct a trading policy that depends on these conditions, and the current portfolio holdings. After discretizing the market conditions, we fit Laplacian regularized stratified models for the return mean and covariance. These models have a different mean and covariance for each market condition, but are regularized so that nearby market conditions have similar models. This technique allows us to fit models for market conditions that have not occurred in the training data, by borrowing strength from nearby market conditions for which we do have data. These models are combined with a Markowitz-inspired optimization method to yield a trading policy that is based on market conditions. We illustrate our method on a small universe of 18 ETFs, using four well known and publicly available market variables to construct 10000 market conditions, and show that it performs well out of sample. The method, however, is general, and scales to much larger problems, that presumably would use proprietary data sources and forecasts along with publicly available data. |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2101.04113&r=all |
| By: | Eugenio M Cerutti; Catherine Koch; Swapan-Kumar Pradhan |
| Abstract: | We explore the global footprint of Chinese banks and compare it with that of other bank nationalities. Chinese banks have become the largest cross-border creditors for almost half of all emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs). Their global reach resembles that of banks from advanced economies (AEs). We take a nationality approach as international banks, and Chinese banks in particular, grant a substantial share of their cross-border loans from affiliates located abroad. But differences remain. Using a gravity model with a novel measure of distance capturing the role of foreign affiliates across all bank nationalities, we find that larger distances deter cross-border bank lending to EMDEs more than to AEs. For Chinese banks, however, distance deters lending to EMDEs less than for peer EMDE banks. We show that for all banks combined, bilateral economic interactions like trade, FDI and portfolio investment, positively correlate with lending. Chinese banks’ lending to EMDEs also strongly correlates with trade, but not with FDI and, unlike other banks, it correlates negatively with portfolio investment. |
| Keywords: | Bank credit;Portfolio investment;Cross-border banking;Foreign direct investment;Foreign banks;Chinese banks,Trade,FDI,Gravity model,WP,borrower country,cross-border lending,EMDE borrower,bank lending,lending bank,parent country |
| Date: | 2020–11–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2020/249&r=all |
| By: | , AISDL |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to investigate the literature on Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) to provide a comprehensive overview of whether CSR would make a difference to organisational financial outcomes. The paper also provides a closer focus on CSR research in Vietnam. Through an extensive analysis of 86 most recent empirical studies from 2015 to 2020, we found that the contribution of CSR to firm financial performance has received significant support from the literature. Yet the overall findings are still inconsistent, and the majority of evidence is mainly from developed countries. The current literature on CSR and firm performance highlights some important issues, ranging from theoretical background, CSR measures, methodological issues, the need to consider intervening factors in CSR-firm performance relationship, and the need to extend this literature further in developing and emerging countries. The literature on CSR-firm performance research in Vietnam closely resembles these problems. Research in this country domain is still scarce in both quantity and quality, reflecting in a number of issues including the limited number of international publications, the absence of theory-driven research, and the less rigorous research design. Building on these findings, we recommend future research to (i) adopt the multi-theoretical approach for a more extensive view on whether and how CSR contributes to firm performance; (ii) obtain more rigorous methodological approaches to measure a wide range of CSR dimensions and address the issue of endogeneity in CSR-firm performance causal relationship; (iii) open the Pandora box to explore why and through which channels CSR can improve firm financial performance with the presence of situational factors; and (iv) build the literature with more evidence from different country contexts and from developing and emerging countries. |
| Date: | 2020–08–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:aymk7&r=all |
| By: | Theologos Dergiades (Department of International and European Studies, University of Macedonia); Panos K. Pouliasis (Cass Business School) |
| Abstract: | This paper re-examines stock returns predictability over the business cycle using price-dividend and price-earnings valuation ratios as predictors. Unlike prior studies that habitually implement long-horizon/predictive regressions, we conduct a testing framework in the frequency domain. Predictive regressions support no predictability; in contrast, our results in the frequency domain verify significant predictability at medium and long horizons. To robustify predictability patterns, the analysis is executed repetitively for fixed-length rolling samples of various sizes. Overall, stock returns are predictable for wavelengths higher than five years. This finding is robust and independent of time, window size and predictor. |
| Keywords: | Stock Returns; Long-Horizon Predictability, Frequency Domain. |
| JEL: | C10 G17 G32 |
| Date: | 2021–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mcd:mcddps:2021_03&r=all |
| By: | Patrick Blagrave; Weicheng Lian |
| Abstract: | We study the inflation process in India, focusing on the periods before and after the adoption of flexible inflation-forecast targeting (FIT) in India. Our analysis uses several approaches including standard Phillips curve estimation for headline and core inflation, an examination of the sensitivity of medium-term inflation expectations to inflation surprises, and the properties of convergence between headline and core inflation. Results indicate an important role for domestic factors in driving the inflation process, and there is evidence that expectations have become more anchored since 2015. This result could be attributable to FIT adoption, or to persistently low food prices which dominate the post-FIT-adoption period. The policy implications of these structural changes in the inflation process are investigated using a semi-structural model calibrated to the Indian economy. |
| Keywords: | Inflation;Food prices;Inflation targeting;Emerging and frontier financial markets;Import prices;India,WP,inflation expectation,headline inflation processes,food price inflation,core-inflation process,core-inflation determinant,headline inflation forecast |
| Date: | 2020–11–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2020/251&r=all |
| By: | Takahashi, Makoto; Watanabe, Toshiaki; Omori, Yasuhiro |
| Abstract: | This paper compares the volatility predictive abilities of some time-varying volatility models such as thestochastic volatility (SV) and exponential GARCH (EGARCH) models using daily returns, the heterogeneous au-toregressive (HAR) model using daily realized volatility (RV) and the realized SV (RSV) and realized EGARCH(REGARCH) models using the both. The data are the daily return and RV of Dow Jones Industrial Aver-age (DJIA) in US and Nikkei 225 (N225) in Japan. All models are extended to accommodate the well-knownphenomenon in stock markets of a negative correlation between today's return and tomorrow's volatility. Weestimate the HAR model by the ordinary least squares (OLS) and the EGARCH and REGARCH models bythe quasi-maximum likelihood (QML) method. Since it is not straightforward to evaluate the likelihood of theSV and RSV models, we apply a Bayesian estimation via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to them. Byconducting predictive ability tests and analyses based on model confidence sets, we confirm that the models us-ing RV outperform the models without RV, that is, the RV provides useful information on forecasting volatility.Moreover, we find that the realized SV model performs best and the HAR model can compete with it. Thecumulative loss analysis suggests that the differences of the predictive abilities among the models are partlycaused by the rise of volatility. |
| Keywords: | Exponential GARCH (EGARCH) model, Heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) model, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), Realized volatility, Stochastic volatility, Volatility forecasting |
| JEL: | C11 C22 C53 C58 G17 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:hiasdp:hias-e-104&r=all |
| By: | Daniel Garcés Díaz |
| Abstract: | This document proposes a general macroeconomic framework to analyze the behavior of inflation. This approach has two characteristics. The first is the distinction of monetary regimes based on the number of shocks that have a permanent effect on the price level. When all shocks have a permanent impact, the regime determines the inflation rate, as in inflation targeting. On the other hand, when there is only one shock with permanent effects, the regime determines the price level. An example of this is a regime with a fixed exchange rate. Even if there is no explicit target for the domestic price level, this becomes determined by the operation of a regime of this type. The second characteristic comes from the factors that Granger cause the rate of inflation or the price level. With this, a new perspective on four different historical cases emerges. One is the German hyperinflation; the second is that of the United States for a very long sample. For Brazil and Mexico, the analysis demonstrates that their inflationary processes' complexity arises from the regime changes they have gone through. |
| JEL: | C32 E41 E42 E52 |
| Date: | 2020–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2020-16&r=all |
| By: | Montagna, Mattia; Torri, Gabriele; Covi, Giovanni |
| Abstract: | Systemic risk in the banking sector is usually associated with long periods of economic downturn and very large social costs. On one hand, shocks coming from correlated exposures towards the real economy may induce correlation in banks' default probabilities thereby increasing the likelihood for systemic-tail events like the 2008 Great Financial Crisis. On the other hand, financial contagion also plays an important role in generating large-scale market failures, amplifying the initial shocks coming from the real economy. To study the sources of these rare phenomena, we propose a new definition of systemic risk (i.e. the probability of a large number of banks going into distress simultaneously) and thus we develop a multilayer microstructural model to study empirically the determinants of systemic risk. The model is then calibrated on the most comprehensive granular dataset for the euro area banking sector, capturing roughly 96% or EUR 23.2 trillion of euro area banks' total assets over the period 2014-2018. The output of the model decompose and quantify the sources of systemic risk showing that correlated economic shocks, financial contagion mechanisms, and their interaction are the main sources of systemic events. The results obtained with the simulation engine resemble common market-based systemic risk indicators and empirically corroborate findings from existing literature. This framework gives regulators and central bankers a tool to study systemic risk and its developments, pointing out that systemic events and banks’ idiosyncratic defaults have different drivers, hence implying different policy responses. JEL Classification: D85, G17, G33, L14 |
| Keywords: | financial contagion, microstructural models, systemic risk |
| Date: | 2020–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20202502&r=all |
| By: | Tamim Bayoumi; Yunhui Zhao |
| Abstract: | Housing is by far the most important asset in Chinese households’ balance sheets. However, despite forceful and frequent government interventions, the rise in Chinese housing prices has not been contained as much as intended, a trend that has not been reversed by the COVID-19 shock. In this paper, we first provide some stylized facts and then a DSGE model (encompassing both demand and supply channels) to highlight the impact of a “slow-moving” structural vulnerability—financial market incompleteness—on China’s housing prices. The model implies that to eradicate the root causes of the rising housing price, policymakers need to go beyond the housing market itself; instead, it would be desirable to deepen financial markets because these markets would help channel financial resources to productive sectors rather than to housing speculation. This is particularly important in the COVID era because without addressing this structural vulnerability, the higher household savings and the government stimulus may fuel the housing bubble and sow seeds for a future crisis. The paper can also shed light on the housing markets in other economies that face similar vulnerabilities. |
| Date: | 2020–12–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2020/265&r=all |
| By: | Darshini J S; K Gayithri (Institute for Social and Economic Change) |
| Abstract: | Fiscal management and fiscal dependency are closely interlinked in any federal system. On account of improper fiscal management and enhanced development expenditure responsibilities, sub-national governments by and large end up with a huge resource gap, which necessitates fiscal and policy interventions by the higher level of government as part of bridging the resource gap. The first part of the current analysis explains the role of various sources of revenue in financing the basic resource gaps of the states and the second part decomposes the level and pattern of fiscal dependency on the different components of total transfers with respect to 14 major Indian states for the period 1981-82 to 2014-15. A phase-wise analysis of the states’ dependency and its varying nature provides a meaningful insight into the relative role of the different sources of revenue in financing the total expenditure. The fiscal adjustment measures undertaken over time point to the poor fiscal health of the Indian states. The study finds that despite a fair improvement in revenue generation on the part of states, the basic resource gap continues to persist, with a steady rise in the total expenditure with an enhanced capital spending and a decline in the non-debt capital receipts and also that a shift in the pattern of financing the total expenditure from non-obligatory sources of revenue to obligatory sources of revenue has further enhanced heterogeneity across states in terms of fiscal management. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal management; Federal system; Fiscal health |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sch:wpaper:433&r=all |
| By: | Chun, Hyunbae; Joo, Hailey Hayeon; Kang, Jisoo; Lee, Yoonsoo |
| Abstract: | The rapid growth of e-commerce is widely blamed for job losses in brick-and-mortar retailers. We construct a unique measure of online spending share based on 30 billion transactions of credit cards in Korea. Using the geographic variation in online spending shares, we examine the causal e ect of e-commerce on retail employment at the county level. We nd that the rise in online spending share from 2010 to 2015 decreases the county-level oine retail employment by about 172 workers, which represents approximately 3% reduction in average retail employment. We also nd that the employment shifts from oine retail to other local businesses, such as restaurants and personal services. However, such e ects of employment shift are con ned in metropolitan areas and fall far short of o setting employment losses in non-metropolitan areas. Our nding implies a prospect of Retail Job Apocalypse in certain local labor markets (i.e., non-metropolitan areas), if not everywhere. |
| Keywords: | E-Commerce, Employment, Local Labor Market, Retail, Credit Card |
| JEL: | J21 L81 R12 |
| Date: | 2020–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:hitcei:2020-7&r=all |
| By: | António Afonso; José Alves; João Tovar Jalles |
| Abstract: | We empirically assess whether ausually expected negative response of private consumption and private investment to a fiscal consolidation is reversed. We focus on a large sample of 174 countries between 1970 and 2018. We also employ three alternative measures of the Cyclically Adjusted Primary Balance used to determine fiscal episodes: i) the IMF-WEO based; ii) the HP-based; and iii) the Hamilton(2018)-based.We find that: i)increases in government consumption have a Keynesian effect on real per capita private consumption; ii)there is a positive effect of tax increases on private consumption when there is a fiscal consolidation; iii) there is a crowding-in effect for private investment, from fiscal contractions. Moreover, expansionary fiscal consolidation soccur particularly in highly indebted advanced economies following an increase in taxes. Finally,the negative effect of taxation on private consumption is larger when an economy is experiencing a financial crisis but it is not consolidating. |
| Keywords: | non-Keynesian effects, fiscal consolidation, filtering, consumption, investment, financial crises, panel data, endogeneity |
| JEL: | C23 E21 E62 H5 H62 |
| Date: | 2021–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ise:remwps:wp01582021&r=all |
| By: | Byström, Hans (Department of Economics, Lund University) |
| Abstract: | Using different measures of how the Covid-19 pandemic progresses we find that the level of credit risk among US blue chip companies increases in tandem with the Covid-19 virus spreading. The credit risk increases dramatically during the pandemic, but we find it to be short of the levels seen during the 2008–2009 financial crisis. Furthermore, we find weekly ups and downs in credit risk and virus impact to be significantly positively correlated throughout the pandemic. Finally, Basel II capital requirements increase drastically when the pandemic strikes but, again, not to the levels seen during the financial crisis. |
| Keywords: | credit risk; Covid-19; equity market; debt market; CDS; Merton model; Basel II |
| JEL: | G10 G33 I18 |
| Date: | 2021–01–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:lunewp:2021_001&r=all |
| By: | Chikako Baba; Cristina Batog; Enrique Flores; Borja Gracia; Izabela Karpowicz; Piotr Kopyrski; James Roaf; Anna Shabunina; Rachel Elkan; Xin Cindy Xu |
| Abstract: | Europe’s high pre-existing level of financial development can partly account for the relatively smaller reach of fintech payment and lending activities compared to some other regions. But fintech activity is growing rapidly. Digital payment schemes are expanding within countries, although cross-border and pan-euro area instruments are not yet widespread, notwithstanding important enabling EU level regulation and the establishment of instant payments by the ECB. Automated lending models are developing but remain limited mainly to unsecured consumer lending. While start-ups are pursuing platform-based approaches under minimal regulation, there is a clear trend for fintech companies to acquire balance sheets and, relatedly, banking licenses as they expand. Meanwhile, competition is pushing many traditional banks to adopt fintech instruments, either in-house or by acquisition, thereby causing them to increasingly resemble balanced sheet-based fintech companies. These developments could improve the efficiency and reach of financial intermediation while also adding to profitability pressures for some banks. Although the COVID-19 pandemic could call into question the viability of platform-based lending fintechs funding models given that investors could face much higher delinquencies, it may also offer growth opportunities to those fintechs that are positioned to take advantage of the ongoing structural shift in demand toward virtual finance. |
| Keywords: | Fintech;Peer-to-peer lending;Loans;Financial statements;Crowdfunding;lending,payment system,European Union,Payments Directive,PSD2,WP,Fintech company,direct debit,micro-enterprise lending,individual investor,Big-tech company,crowdfunding firm,due diligence,payment company,value chain,venture capital |
| Date: | 2020–11–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2020/241&r=all |
| By: | Yiping Huang; Longmei Zhang; Zhenhua Li; Han Qiu; Tao Sun; Xue Wang |
| Abstract: | Promoting credit services to small and medium-size enterprises (SMEs) has been a perennial challenge for policy makers globally due to high information costs. Recent fintech developments may be able to mitigate this problem. By leveraging big data or digital footprints on existing platforms, some big technology (BigTech) firms have extended short-term loans to millions of small firms. By analyzing 1.8 million loan transactions of a leading Chinese online bank, this paper compares the fintech approach to assessing credit risk using big data and machine learning models with the bank approach using traditional financial data and scorecard models. The study shows that the fintech approach yields better prediction of loan defaults during normal times and periods of large exogenous shocks, reflecting information and modeling advantages. BigTech’s proprietary information can complement or, where necessary, substitute credit history in risk assessment, allowing unbanked firms to borrow. Furthermore, the fintech approach benefits SMEs that are smaller and in smaller cities, hence complementing the role of banks by reaching underserved customers. With more effective and balanced policy support, BigTech lenders could help promote financial inclusion worldwide. |
| Keywords: | Fintech;Machine learning;Bank credit;Loans;Credit risk;WP,credit history,Fintech firm,house ownership,internet company,real-time customer rating |
| Date: | 2020–09–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2020/193&r=all |
| By: | Gupta, Manavi; Kishore, Avinash |
| Abstract: | India has recorded high levels of unemployment and low labor force participation rates in recent years even before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and the lockdown. How does an episode of unemployment or loss of income affect household consumption expenditure is an important question for designing effective safety nets. We use data on household-specific episodes of job loss and decline in income, from an earlier year (March-April 2019) to estimate the household response to employment shocks. We apply diff-in-diff and quantile regressions to a high-frequency panel data from a nationally representative survey of 1,75,000 households to estimate the impact of a job loss (and change in income) on household consumption expenditure—for urban and rural households, and households across different expenditure levels. We find that loss of employment of an earning member leads to a significant immediate decline in household consumption expenditure. The decline is much larger for urban households and households in the lowest and the highest deciles of monthly per capita. Durable expenses go down the most. Expenditure on health and education also goes down significantly and there is evidence of adjustments in discretionary expenses too, especially for urban households. For households with only one earning member, borrowing does not increase after the job loss, suggesting credit constraints. Government cash transfers help rural households, as the beneficiaries show a smaller reduction in consumption expenditure after the shock. Our findings highlight the high vulnerability of urban households to economic shocks and can inform the design and targeting of income support and other safety-net programs in India and other developing countries. |
| Keywords: | INDIA; SOUTH ASIA; ASIA; unemployment; household consumption; rural areas; urban areas; employment; shocks; cash transfers; credit; consumer participation; consumption smoothing; permanent income hypothesis; credit constraints; consumer spending |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:1978&r=all |
| By: | Enste, Dominik; Wildner, Julia; Nafziger, Lucia |
| Abstract: | This paper calls for an increased discourse between Fridays for Future and representatives of business. Fridays for Future play a key role in educating the public and raising awareness of scientific reports, such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment, which demonstrate the urgency with which we must tackle climate change. This is important to gain world attention on pressing questions of our time. At the same time, it is crucial to examine the main drivers in our socio-economic system to understand that the spread of information alone is insufficient to bring fundamental change. Human behaviour remains propelled by both the quest for prosperity and the call for a fair and sustainable economic system. We need to understand how to expand our economy in a sustainable way, how business can foster sustainable innovations and how to motivate consumers to support companies by buying green products. Companies are the necessary key for green innovations. These innovations are only as strong as their demand. Concern about the environment has widely spread in our society. At the same time this concern is not always translated into our actions. Behavioural Economics integrates psychological insights of human behaviour into economic theory and shows us solutions how to overcome the attitude-behavior-gap. Our aim is to work out how behavioural economics can be used to support environmentally friendly practices with incentives. All of our purchase decisions are influenced by cognitive biases. It is estimated that 40 percent of our day-to-day decisions are based on habits. The status quo bias or the discounting of future value often hinder pro-environmental behaviour. Therefore, purely apportioning blame will not result in changes. Instead, an adjustment of the framework through restructuring incentives to overcome biases can as a piece of the puzzle help to achieve the change required. Through the recognition of human "defaults" these can then be harnessed to nudge green actions. Similarly, the individual structural pursuit of profit can be channelled towards green growth. Through the spread of information and effective incentives, we can spark innovations which defuse tensions between economic growth and environmental protection, facilitating sustainable development. |
| JEL: | F64 Q56 Q58 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwkrep:12021&r=all |