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on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | This paper presents 2019 Article IV Consultation with Republic of Afghanistan and its Sixth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement. Despite difficult circumstances, the Afghan authorities have continued to demonstrate strong commitment to the economic program supported by the Extended Credit Facility arrangement. Given the uncertain outlook dominated by downside risks, policies should focus on maintaining macroeconomic and financial stability and putting the conditions in place for stronger and more inclusive growth, led by the private sector. The authorities have made progress with their self-reliance agenda, yet strong financial support from donors is needed to help Afghanistan stay on the path to greater prosperity. Fiscal policy should continue to target a broadly balanced budget, supported by fair and sustainable domestic revenue mobilization and strong financial support by donors. Resources should shift toward pro-growth and pro-poor outlays and create fiscal space to meet the country’s considerable development needs. |
| Keywords: | Public debt;Currencies;Credit;Banking;Corruption;ISCR,CR,Afghanistan,right,authority,debt |
| Date: | 2019–12–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2019/382&r=all |
| By: | Dedeoğlu, Saniye. |
| Abstract: | This report focuses on two categories of home-based workers in Turkey; industrial home-based pieceworkers and IT-enabled remote workers, who are commonly referred to in Turkey as “freelancers”. With an aim of exploring the current patterns and issues of these two categories of home-based workers in Turkey, the report presents the situation and working practices of industrial home-based workers and freelance remote workers. A supply-and-demand side analysis is used to analyse the changes in the production networks and in the working relations. Issues such as access to work, working arrangements, working hours, earnings, health and safety and work-life balance are main areas of investigation. The interviews conducted in Istanbul with homeworkers reveal that an analysis of gendered nature of home-based work is necessary to unveil the values attached to piecework and digital remote work and that even social, cultural and economic distinctions between two groups, the lack of job security and decent working conditions as well as low bargaining power have resulted in their increased vulnerabilities in the Turkish labour markets. |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ilo:ilowps:995106793102676&r=all |
| By: | Halit Yanikkaya (Gebze Technical University, Turkey); Abdullah Altun (Gebze Technical University, Turkey); Pinar Tat (Gebze Technical University) |
| Abstract: | Regarding the dynamics of contemporary world economy, success in a domestic economy cannot be achieved without effective integration policies for goods/services and capital flows. In order to evaluate this proposition, we utilize a large number of openness measures for two periods:1995-2009 and 2005-2014. For the earlier data set, we find that export and export of domestic value added increase total factor productivity growth. These variables are also positively associated with value added growth. Tariff rates which Turkey faces are negatively related to value added growth, which means decreasing competitiveness of Turkish goods and services in the international market. Forward GVC participation leads to increase in value added growth. For export growth, tariff rates faced significantly reduce the growth rate of both export and domestic value added export. For the later data set, all covariates other than tariff rates lose their significances. However, tariff rates Turkey imposes are positively related to both total factor productivity and value added growth. The negative effect of faced tariff rates is also persistent in export growth. Overall, designing and implementing trade policies to effectively integrate into the global value chains is an important task for Turkey. |
| Date: | 2020–12–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1447&r=all |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | This Technical Assistance paper assesses Islamic Republic of Afghanistan government’s finance statistics (GFS). The mission updated the AFMIS bridge tables to enable producing Budgetary Central Government data according to the GFSM 2014 classifications including the economic (object) and functional classifications, reviewed government debt compilation, assisted developing bridge tables for extrabudgetary units, and provided hands-on training for GFS compilers in compiling the data for the general government. Despite good outcomes, the capacity for GFS compilation remains slim and securing support of the management remains critical for both maintaining the current achievements and further improving the government financial data consistent with the GFSM 2014 methodology. Afghanistan has made good steps toward further improving GFS and starting to provide supplementary accrual information, while there have been issues with the quality of the source data. The mission suggests that a GFS Technical Working Group should be set up to coordinate the GFS reforms, address the issues in applying the GFSM 2014 methodology, and advise the Ministry of Finance management on important matters requiring attention. |
| Keywords: | Government finance statistics;Financial statements;Financial statistics;Fiscal accounting and reporting;Budget planning and preparation;ISCR,CR,GFS compilation,GFS compiler,cash basis,BCG account,compilation method,debt report,GFS reform |
| Date: | 2019–12–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2019/378&r=all |
| By: | Орлов Константин (National Bank of Kazakhstan) |
| Abstract: | В настоящей работе была проведена оценка эффективности динамических факторных моделей в прогнозировании ВВП Казахстана для текущего и будущих кварталов, доказана целесообразность применения данных моделей, а также получено факторное разложение динамики ВВП. Факторы были поделены на группы и включали в себя показатели реального и внешнего, финансового, денежного, ценового блоков. // In this paper, the effectiveness of dynamic factor models in forecasting Kazakhstan's GDP for the current and future quarters was assessed, the expediency of using these models was proved, and a factor decomposition of the dynamics of GDP was obtained. The factors were divided into groups and included indicators of real and external, financial, monetary, and price blocks. |
| Keywords: | GDP, short-term forecasts, dynamic factor models, principal component analysis, Kalman filter, ВВП, краткосрочные прогнозы, динамические факторные модели, метод главных компонент, фильтр Кальмана |
| JEL: | C52 C53 C55 C82 E17 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aob:wpaper:7&r=all |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | This 2019 Article IV Consultation with Turkey discusses that economic growth has since resumed, buoyed by expansionary fiscal policy, rapid credit provision by state-owned banks, and more favorable external financing conditions. The lira also recovered as market pressures abated. Import compression and a strong tourism season have contributed to a remarkable current account adjustment. Inflation has fallen sharply, and the central bank cut policy rates by 1000 basis points since July 2019. Inflation peaked at around 25 percent—five times the target—in October 2018 due, in large part, to high exchange rate passthrough and rising inflation expectations. However, strong base effects, relative lira stability, and a negative output gap have since contributed to a steep inflation decline, although inflation expectations remain well above target. State-owned banks are supporting rapid credit growth. While private banks have cut back on their lending, state-owned banks have engaged in a major credit expansion which picked up pace in early-2019. |
| Keywords: | Inflation;State-owned banks;Financial statements;Banking;National accounts;ISCR,CR,inflation expectation,authority,IMF staff calculation |
| Date: | 2019–12–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2019/395&r=all |
| By: | Eleftherios Giovanis (Manchester Metropolitan University); Oznur Ozdamar (Izmir University Bakircay); Burcu Özdas (Adnan Menderes University) |
| Abstract: | Unemployment can negatively affect individuals, their families and communities in various ways. When individuals are out of work may experience mental and physical health problems, material deprivation and poverty. This study aims to examine the impact of unemployment benefits on health and living standards in Turkey. We employ a structural equation modelling (SEM) to take into account the simultaneous relations among the latent variables of health and Standard of Living (SoL). Additionally, we propose a fuzzy Regression Discontinuity Design (FRDD) within the SEM framework to infer for causality. For the empirical analysis we use the panel Income and Living Conditions Survey (ILCS) over the period 2007-2015. Our findings suggest that those who receive these benefits are more likely to report higher levels of health and improve their living standards compared to the non-recipients. Our results indicate a large heterogeneity on the impact of unemployment benefits, as males, low educated individuals and those belonging in the lower levels of income are affected more in terms of their health status and living standards. The majority of earlier studies have focused on the impact of unemployment benefits on labour outcomes. The originality of this study is that we implement the FRDD within the SEM framework to explore simultaneously the impact of unemployment insurance on heath and living standards. Moreover, this framework can be applied in future research studies to infer causality and explore the impact of policies and reforms. |
| Date: | 2020–12–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1448&r=all |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses Republic of Georgia’s Fifth Review Under the Extended Arrangement, Requests for Waivers of NonObservance of Performance Criteria, Modification of Performance Criteria, and an Extension of the Arrangement and Rephasing of Access. Georgia’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth remains on track to reach 4.6 percent despite the ban on direct flights from Russia. Strong revenue growth has more than offset higher-than-envisaged capital spending, and the 2019 fiscal deficit is likely to be lower than projected at the Fourth Review. The 2020 budget implies a neutral fiscal stance; spending on education and social benefits is expected to rise, while overall current primary spending would remain unchanged. Medium-term fiscal plans are anchored at keeping net debt below 45 percent of GDP. The central bank should maintain a tightening bias until inflation expectations are firmly anchored. The planned emergency liquidity assistance and bank resolution framework will strengthen financial stability. Decisive implementation of structural reforms is critical to support higher and more inclusive growth. Advancing education reform, adopting the insolvency framework, developing the local capital market, and judiciary reform will further improve the business environment and support private investment. |
| Keywords: | External debt;Loans;Public debt;Credit;Foreign exchange;ISCR,CR,IMF staff country,monetary policy,deficit |
| Date: | 2019–12–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2019/372&r=all |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | This Selected Issues paper on Turkey assesses the role of structural reforms in enhancing productivity growth in advanced and emerging economies and discusses results that are relevant for Turkey. The paper investigates the role of structural reforms in boosting productivity growth and describes the stochastic frontier set-up for analyzing factors that affect output through technical efficiency; and subsequently presents empirical results. It also simulates productivity gains from closing the structural reform gaps between Turkey and its benchmark. Structural reforms to improve hiring and firing regulations, the business and regulatory environment, and skills are found to have the largest estimated long-term productivity gains for Turkey. In order to bolster Turkey’s sustainable medium-term growth prospects, structural reforms should be implemented sooner rather than later, and any possible negative reform impacts in the short run could be limited by a reform sequencing and reform complementarities. |
| Keywords: | Structural reforms;Commodity markets;Labor market flexibility;Competition;Total factor productivity;ISCR,CR,center,pay-productivity alignment,production function |
| Date: | 2019–12–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2019/396&r=all |
| By: | Жузбаев Адам (National Bank of Kazakhstan) |
| Abstract: | Был изучен и применен к Казахстану международный опыт прогнозирования показателей фискальной политики и определения направленности фискальной политики. Построение прогнозов налоговых поступлений осуществлялось на основе трех методов: эффективная налоговая ставка; подход, основанный на эластичности изменения налоговых поступлений к налоговой базе; уравнения связки на основе множественной регрессии. // International experience of forecasting indicators and determining the direction of fiscal policy was studied and applied to Kazakhstan. Tax revenue forecasts were made on the basis of three methods: effective tax rate; approach based on the elasticity of tax change receipts to the tax base; bridge equations based on multiple regression. |
| Keywords: | Automatic stabilizers, GDP deflator, GDP, tax revenues, operational balance, budget expenditures, fiscal impulse, fiscal policy, Buoyancy, ETR, OLS, RMSE, автоматические стабилизаторы, дефлятор ВВП, ВВП, налоговые поступления, операционное сальдо, затраты бюджета, фискальный импульс, фискальная политика |
| JEL: | C51 C32 H68 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aob:wpaper:16&r=all |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | This paper highlights Republic of Armenia’s First Review Under the Stand-By-Arrangement. Armenia’s economic performance is strong with healthy growth, low inflation, a stable financial system, with increasing foreign reserves and higher revenues. Despite fiscal overperformance, it is key to maintain the reform momentum to strengthen revenue mobilization, including by completing reforms to property taxation. Implementation of the authorities’ reform agenda including efforts to improve governance by establishing a holistic anti-corruption framework, will bolster sustainable and inclusive growth. The monetary policy framework’s focus on price stability has served Armenia well. The authorities’ implementation of Basel III measures will raise the resilience of the financial system, while their plans to develop the capital market and improve access to finance are also welcome. |
| Keywords: | Foreign exchange;Public debt;Capital markets;Revenue administration;Banking;ISCR,CR,government,reform,reform momentum,broad money |
| Date: | 2019–12–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2019/397&r=all |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Economic Growth Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Fiscal & Monetary Policy Poverty Reduction - Achieving Shared Growth Poverty Reduction - Inequality Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Macroeconomic Management |
| Date: | 2020–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:33210&r=all |
| By: | Hüseyin Ikizler (Presidency of Strategy and Budget); Emre Yüksel (Presidency of Strategy and Budget); Hüsniye Burçin Ikizler (Ministry of Health) |
| Abstract: | As of December 2018, Turkey is home to 3.6 million Syrian refugees under temporary protection status. The negative externalities of Syrian refugees may affect the native-born population's needs, precisely healthcare needs. The possible increase in healthcare demand due to population increase may escalate unmet healthcare needs (UHCN). The study contributes to the literature by analyzing refugees' effect on the native-born population's unmet healthcare needs. Our central hypothesis is that mass refugee influx increases the ratio of the UHCN arising mainly from systemic reasons, especially at the beginning of the migration crisis. Using a difference-in-differences approach, we find that the UHCN of the native-born population has increased due to the mass refugee influx. We estimate the magnitude of this increase by nearly 6.3% at the beginning of the refugee crisis. The impact diminishes as the imbalance of demand and supply of healthcare services diminishes. |
| Date: | 2020–12–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1436&r=all |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Georgia’s performance under the Extended Arrangement has been positive, but the country is now facing a pronounced economic slowdown. Domestic and external demand remain weak, and service sector activity remains sluggish. Staff projects the economy to shrink by 5.1 percent this year followed by a gradual recovery. |
| Date: | 2020–12–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2020/322&r=all |
| By: | Самат Мөлдір (National Bank of Kazakhstan) |
| Abstract: | Целью данной работы является оценка вклада внутренних и иностранных инвестиций в экономический рост страны, а также анализ взаимного влияния иностранных и внутренних инвестиций друг на друга. Для такой оценки использовался широко используемый в мире метод VAR, а именно панельная векторная авторегрессия, которая позволяет объединить данные по отраслям экономики с временным рядом. // The purpose of this work is to assess the contribution of domestic and foreign investment to the country's economic growth, as well as to analyze the mutual influence of foreign and domestic investment on each other. For such an assessment, the VAR method, widely used in the world, was used, namely, panel vector autoregression, which allows combining data on sectors of the economy with a time series. |
| Keywords: | foreign direct investment, investment in fixed assets, elasticity, vector autoregression model, impulse responses, прямые иностранные инвестиции, инвестиции в основной капитал, эластичность, модель векторной авторегрессии, импульсные отклики |
| JEL: | C22 C33 C51 E22 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aob:wpaper:6&r=all |
| By: | Ержан Ислам (National Bank of Kazakhstan); Орлов Константин (National Bank of Kazakhstan) |
| Abstract: | В настоящей работе описан подход к осуществлению сезонной корректировки индекса потребительских цен для Казахстана, и на основании ее результатов приведены примеры построения вспомогательных индексов, учитывающих фундаментальное поведение цен и очищенных от влияния временных факторов. // This paper describes an approach to the implementation of seasonal adjustment of the consumer price index for Kazakhstan, and based on its results, examples of constructing auxiliary indices that take into account the fundamental behavior of prices and are cleared of the influence of temporary factors are given. |
| Keywords: | inflation, seasonal adjustment, core inflation, trending inflation, инфляция, сезонная корректировка, базовая инфляция, трендовая инфляция |
| JEL: | C19 E31 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aob:wpaper:5&r=all |
| By: | Myrzakhmet, Marat |
| Abstract: | The article considers a regional approach to the study of structural change, which might be more sensitive. The analysis of structural relationships in the regions of Kazakhstan for 2016-2018 and the corresponding typology of regional systems were performed, and the changes that have occurred were identified. At the beginning of the study period, the regional system seems excessively ordered, characterized by a fairly high level of regional differences. At the end of the period, a change in the qualitative characteristics of the system is observed. The identified changes can determine the direction of the further diagnostics. |
| Keywords: | Structural changes; structural shifts; structural diagnostics; regional development forecasting |
| JEL: | L1 L16 O14 O25 P25 Q32 R11 R38 R58 |
| Date: | 2020–12–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:105084&r=all |