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on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Gharleghi, Behrooz |
| Abstract: | The main objective of this research is to make an assessment of the symmetry/asymmetry of underlying macroeconomic shocks in the Eurasia region. A model is developed to distinguish structural global supply shocks, regional supply shocks, and domestic supply shocks using a reduced-form structural vector autoregressive model (SVAR). Empirical results reveal that the correlation between domestic and regional shocks, as well as between domestic and global shocks, are clearly divided into two groups of countries: (i) domestic (country-specific) supply shocks are more correlated with global shocks in the European part of the region (Armenia, Belarus, Georgia, and Ukraine; with the exception of Mongolia here); and (ii) domestic shocks are mostly correlated with regional shocks in the Central Asian part of the region (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Azerbaijan; with the exception of Moldova here). This has implications for the Chinese economy in the region. |
| Keywords: | Eurasia, China, Macroeconomic shocks |
| JEL: | E50 E60 |
| Date: | 2019–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:95545&r=all |
| By: | Nergiz Dincer (Department of Economics, TED University); Ayça Tekin-Koru (Department of Economics, TED University) |
| Abstract: | The main aim of the current paper is to investigate the productivity dynamics of Turkey during the Adalet ve Kalkinma Partisi (AKP) era to contribute to the ongoing discussions of long-term economic growth of the country, using a unique data set and firm-level granular productivity analysis. Furthermore, the deindustrialization of Turkey is scrutinized as a complement to the productivity analysis. Among a plethora of results, the following three are the most important ones in terms of their policy implications: (i) The aggregate productivity figures underestimated the productivity improvements in the manufacturing sector and overestimated the productivity losses in the services sector. (ii) The productivity growth of manufacturing sector in Turkey has been positive yet evolving towards medium-low tech manufacturing which displays the lowest productivity growth among all manufacturing sectors. (iii) While the surviving firms in the Turkish manufacturing sector have increased their own productivity in the AKP era, in the services sector surviving firms have a negative contribution to aggregate productivity growth. |
| Date: | 2019–08–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1318&r=all |
| By: | Yusuf Emre Akgunduz; Altan Aldan; Yusuf Kenan Bagir; Huzeyfe Torun |
| Abstract: | The minimum wages in Turkey rose by nearly 30% in January 2016. We investigate the impact of the increase in minimum wages on export value and prices of firms. We use administrative employee-employer matched firm and transaction level customs data for the analysis. We calculate the potential exposure of each firm to the minimum wage increase according to their 2015 employment records and estimate the effects using a difference-in-differences approach. The results show that there is no significant effect on export prices suggesting that Turkish exporters are price-takers in international trade and producer costs have little effect on export prices in the short run. The impact on export amount is varying across firms depending on the firm size. |
| Keywords: | Minimum wages, Labor costs, Exports |
| JEL: | J23 J38 F14 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1920&r=all |
| By: | G. Gulsun Akin (Department of Economics, Bogazici University); Ahmet Faruk Aysan (Department of Economics, Istanbul Sehir University); Sezgim Dasdogen (Department of Economics, Istanbul Sehir University); Levent Yildiran (4 Department of Economics, Bogazici University) |
| Abstract: | This paper attempts to assess whether the driving factor behind the rising credit card indebtedness of consumers in Turkey is financial illiteracy. Using the results of a nationwide survey, the authors conclude that even though credit card borrowing frequency and debt amount are affected by components of financial literacy, being credit-constrained has a very pronounced impact. An exploratory analysis finds that the probability of irrational credit card borrowing is increased by being credit-constrained but not affected by financial literacy. These findings suggest that credit card debt is at least as much a result of necessity as nescience. |
| Date: | 2019–08–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1315&r=all |
| By: | Eleftherios Giovanis (Manchester Metropolitan University, Business School, Department of Economics); Oznur Ozdamar (Adnan Menderes University, Faculty of Economics, Department of Econometrics) |
| Abstract: | Poverty has been ongoing for many years and still continues to exist in almost all countries around the globe. The objective of alleviating poverty in many nations therefore, remains a significant issue. To comprehend the risks posed by the issue of poverty, its dimension and the process by which it can become deeper must be known, identified and recognised. A broad consensus among policy makers, academic and other institutions is that poverty can be a mixture of various monetary and non-monetary components. These components can limit people’s ability to achieve their potential and affect their well-being. Therefore, the socio-economic growth of a family and of the general welfare of a country should be defined in the combination of both aspects, monetary and non-monetary. The Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) shows how important it is to take into consideration various aspects of poverty. The first aim is to estimate the MPI in Turkey over the period 2006-2015. The second aim is to evaluate the effect of Regional Investment Incentive Scheme implemented in Turkey in 2012. We apply the Differences-in-Differences (DID) framework combined with the Propensity Score Matching (PSM) approach. The results of the study show a significant improvement on wealth, especially in the Eastern part of the country across the period we explore. Furthermore, the findings suggest that the Regional Investment Incentive Scheme had a positive impact on the poverty level in the Eastern part of Turkey, which is the main region of the policy’s interest. |
| Date: | 2019–08–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1338&r=all |
| By: | Sajad Ebrahimi (Monetary and Banking Research Institute); Ali Ebrahimnejad (Sharif University of Technology); Mahdi Rastad (Department of Finance, Orfalea College of Business, California Polytechnic State University) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we study the effect of credit market disruptions on real decisions in a firm. We use firm-level data on employment for a sample of Iranian public firms. We construct a new hand-collected dataset on bank-firm relationship. As for the source of credit supply disruption, we use the 2011 Iranian banking fraud that impacted the credit access for connected firms. Using a difference in difference approach, we compare how employment is affected by credit supply for the impacted firms (connected to a troubled bank) vs. non-impacted ones (connected to a non-troubled bank). Our findings show that a sudden dry up in the credit supply channel is followed by a drop in employment, especially in smaller and more financially constrained firms. Our results highlight the importance of the credit supply channel and the hidden costs of financial scandals on the real side of the economy. |
| Date: | 2019–08–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1316&r=all |
| By: | Aysegul Kayaoglu (Department of Economics, Istanbul Technical University) |
| Abstract: | According to the World Health Organization (WHO, 2018), one in three women has experienced physical or sexual violence at one point in their lives. This situation is hardly any different in Turkey. Studies in the literature suggest that the greatest threat for women in Turkey are mostly inside their houses and the hands they fall prey to mostly belong to their partners. This study aims to understand the factors associated with the probability of experiencing not only physical or sexual violence but also emotional, psychological and economic abuse by women in Turkey who got married at least once, using a nationwide household survey. Firstly, theory of exposure reduction is not fully satisfied because we find that it is not only employment but also the quality of it that also matters for the violence. Secondly, theory of male backlash and extraction effect hypothesis are confirmed in cases of physical and sexual violence. Thirdly, in terms of testing the household bargaining model, we conclude that there is a U-shape relationship between economic abuse and income gap. Fourthly, women who are the only income earners in the household faces higher likelihood of physical and sexual violence compared to those who have same income with their husbands or who do not contribute to household income at all. Lastly, we establish that the cycle of violence theory plays the dominating role in the Turkish case among all other theoretical explanations used to explain the domestic violence. |
| Date: | 2019–08–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1306&r=all |