nep-cwa 2019-08-12 papers

on Central and Western Asia

Issue of 2019‒08‒12
two papers chosen by
Sultan Orazbayev

Trends, determinants and the implications of population aging in Iran By Mehri , N.; Messkoub, M.; Kunkel, S.
On Target? The Incidence of Sanctions Across Listed Firms in Iran By Draca, Mirko; Garred, Jason; Stickland. Leanne; Warrinnier, Nele

Trends, determinants and the implications of population aging in Iran

By:	Mehri , N.; Messkoub, M.; Kunkel, S.
Abstract:	Fertility and mortality decline are major drivers of Iran's population aging. A rapid and sharp fall in fertility rates over the past three decades as well as a substantial rise in life expectancy are causing rapid aging of Iran’s population. The present paper uses the 2015 United Nations Population Division data to discuss the trends, determinants and the implications of population aging in Iran. According to the medium fertility variant, people age 60 and older will represent 31 percent (almost 29 million people) of Iran’s population by 2050. The population age 65 and older is projected to be 22 percent (more than 20 million) and that of aged 80 and older 3.8 percent (around 3.5 million) in 2050, that are almost four-times the corresponding figures in 2015. Data on the speed of population aging show that Iran is the second fastest aging country in the world in terms of the percentage point increase in the population age 60 and over between 2015 and 2050; Iran is second only to South Korea, by less than .01 percent. The rapid population aging of Iran has significant implications for all societal institutions and decision makers that have to be addressed by the Iranian society. Gender-related issues and socio-economic security in old age are two key issues resulting from such a fast population aging. As with many rapidly aging populations, Iran needs a strategy for social and economic support for an aging population that will not promote views of aging people as a burden.
Keywords:	Iran, population aging, fertility change, the speed of the population aging
Date:	2019–08–02
URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ems:euriss:118519&r=all

On Target? The Incidence of Sanctions Across Listed Firms in Iran

By:	Draca, Mirko (University of Warwick); Garred, Jason (University of Ottawa); Stickland. Leanne (University of Warwick); Warrinnier, Nele (KU Leuven)
Abstract:	How successful are sanctions at targeting the economic interests of political elites in aﬀected countries? We study the eﬃcacy of targeting in the case of Iran, using information on the stock exchange-listed assets of two speciﬁc political entities with substantial inﬂuence over the direction of Iran’s nuclear program. Our identiﬁcation strategy focuses on the process of negotiations for sanctions removal, examining which interests beneﬁt most from news about diplomatic progress. We ﬁnd that the stock returns of ﬁrms owned by targeted political elites respond especially sharply to such news, though other listed ﬁrms unconnected to these elites also beneﬁt from progress towards sanctions relief. These results indicate the ‘bluntness’ of sanctions on Iran, but also provide evidence of their eﬀectiveness in generating economic incentives for elite policymakers to negotiate a deal for sanctions relief.
JEL:	F51
Date:	2019
URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:1217&r=all

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