|
on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Nijat Guliyev (Central Bank of Azerbaijan Republic) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the effects of external shocks on the economy of oil rich Azerbaijan. Using oil price and macroeconomic indicators of three major trade partners of Azerbaijan – EU, Russia, and Turkey - as the external shock variables, we analyze the effects of those shocks on the domestic macroeconomic variables of Azerbaijan during the period from 2000Q1 to 2017Q4, in the SVAR framework with block exogeneity restriction. The results show that the overall importance of the four groups of shocks, in descending terms, is in the following order: oil shock, EU origin shocks, Russia origin shocks, and Turkey origin shocks. The major findings of the paper are: a) among considered foreign shocks oil price shock is the most important foreign shock for the economy of Azerbaijan; b) in general EU origin shocks has larger impact on considered domestic variables compared to other trade partners origin shocks; c) Turkey origin shocks have almost no impact in any of the considered domestic variables of Azerbaijan, d) among considered external shocks oil price is the main determinant of the non-oil sector of economy, and e) among considered external shocks GDP growth of the trade partners is the main determinant of the inflation in Azerbaijan. |
| Keywords: | VAR, non-oil GDP, CPI inflation, oil price, external shock |
| JEL: | E10 E30 C30 |
| Date: | 2018–09–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aze:wpaper:1802&r=all |
| By: | Akçomak, Ibrahim Semih (TEKPOL, Middle East Technical University); Bürken, Serkan (TEKPOL, Middle East Technical University) |
| Abstract: | This paper argues that Turkey has fallen into a middle-technology trap on the borders of a weak innovation system (IS) and strong global value chains (GVCs). Detailed information from a primary R&D and innovation funding agency is used to show that the technological characteristics of the funded automotive R&D and innovation projects remained reasonably stable between 1995 and 2011. This result is cross-validated with two qualitative designs on beneficiary firms and automotive industry experts. The qualitative designs aided in identifying three mechanisms that explain how the Turkish automotive industry has fallen into a middle-technology trap. Analysis at the project, firm, and expert levels indicate that despite extensive upgrading and learning in manufacturing, the automotive industry has failed to build innovation capabilities. Turkey's delegated role in the automotive GVC, the joint venture (JV) structure and the lack of complementarities collectively work in creating a trap that impedes further technological development. |
| Keywords: | Middle-technology trap, automotive industry, technology, innovation, Turkey |
| JEL: | O12 O25 O33 L62 |
| Date: | 2019–03–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2019006&r=all |
| By: | Harry Anthony Patrinos (The World Bank); George Psacharopoulos (Georgetown University); TAysit Tansel (Middle East Technical University, ERF and IZA) |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates private and social returns to investment in education in Turkey, using the 2017 Household Labor Force Survey and alternative methodologies. The analysis uses the 1997 education reform of increasing compulsory education by three years as an instrument. This results in a private rate of return on the order of 16 percent for higher education and a social return of 10 percent. Using the number of children younger than age 15 in the household as an exclusion restriction, the analysis finds that returns to education for females are higher than those for males. Contrary to many findings in other countries, private returns to those working in the public sector are higher than those in the private sector, and private returns to those who followed the vocational track in secondary education are higher than those in the general academic track. The paper discusses the policy implications of the findings. |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tek:wpaper:2019/2&r=all |