|
on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Alma Kudebayeva |
| Abstract: | Given the lack of longitudinal data for Central Asia, research on poverty has largely ignored the time dimension. This study uses panel data constructed from the rotating cross-sectional Kazakhstan Household Budget Survey for the 2001-2009 period. The panel data provides an opportunity to measure chronic poverty levels and poverty transitions for the first time in Kazakhstan. We find that, despite the rapid and substantial reduction in poverty in the country since the turn of the century, and depending on the measure of chronic poverty employed, as much as a quarter of the population has experienced persistent poverty. However, the majority of chronically poor experience interrupted poverty spells. We apply the multiple-spell hazard model analysis to shed light on factors that impact on poverty exit and re-entry. The results of these estimates confirm that families with children under age six are experiencing higher probability of entry into poverty and lower probability of exit from poverty. Policy interventions are needed to improve the situation by providing an affordable state child care system in Kazakhstan. |
| Keywords: | chronic poverty; longitudinal data; multiple-spell hazard model; Kazakhstan; |
| JEL: | I32 C23 C41 |
| Date: | 2018–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cer:papers:wp627&r=cwa |
| By: | Aleksandr Grigoryan; Knar Khachatryan |
| Abstract: | In this paper we analyze the recent migration wave in Armenia, using household level representative data from 2011. We identify determinants of emigration intentions by estimating a bivariate probit model with endogenous remittances. The key finding is that remittances help potential migrants to ease the migration process, serving as a resource rather than as a contractual tool between migrants and non-migrants. Spatial factors dominate in the set of (community level) instruments driving remittances. When distinguishing the destination country for potential migrants, Post-Soviet versus Western countries (EU countries or USA), we find that the instruments identified for remittances are more relevant for individuals targeting the Post-Soviet area (mainly Russia). Nevertheless, remittances remain a significant resource for migrating to Western countries. In this case, we control for endogeneity of remittances using Lewbel’s (2012) methodology. Our findings suggest that the two pools of potential migrants differ crucially in the main set of skill characteristics: high-skilled potential migrants opt for Western countries (brain drain), while the low-skilled prefer Post-Soviet countries as a destination. In particular, English language knowledge and computer literacy increase the likelihood for migrating to Western countries, and individuals with those skills are less likely to migrate to Post-Soviet countries. Education is significant for the Post-Soviet model only, with a negative impact on migration intentions. |
| Keywords: | migration; remittances; intentions; development; households; |
| JEL: | F22 J11 O12 |
| Date: | 2018–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cer:papers:wp626&r=cwa |
| By: | Armey, Laura (Naval Postgraduate School); Kniesner, Thomas J. (Claremont Graduate University); Leeth, John D. (Bentley University); Sullivan, Ryan (Naval Postgraduate School) |
| Abstract: | Our research examines the effect of combat deployments to Iraq and Afghanistan on casualties. We use restricted data from the Defense Manpower Data Center (DMDC) and Social Security Administration (SSA) to construct a panel of all U.S. Active Duty service members having served at some point during the years 2001-2012. Casualties disproportionately occur at higher rates among (i) young, white, males (ii) enlisted personnel (iii) less educated personnel (iv) and those in combat job types. Our estimates indicate that overall U.S. military personnel who deployed in an individual year to Iraq or Afghanistan had a 48 per 100,000 higher probability of death than non-deployed military personnel who remained stateside. The increased fatal injury risk of deployed U.S. military personnel is 15 times higher than the national average civilian workplace fatality rate, but roughly equal to the fatal injury risk faced in some of the most dangerous civilian occupations. Our estimates suggest a compensating wage differential equal to $808 per month would be appropriate, in comparison to the current status quo of $225 per month in danger pay (and additional tax benefits) provided to U.S. military personnel deployed into combat zones. The additional compensation should also be adjusted by service or job type. |
| Keywords: | military, deployment, VSL, casualties, danger pay |
| JEL: | H56 J17 J28 J31 |
| Date: | 2018–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp11785&r=cwa |