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on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Amat Adarov (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | The study examines the impact of Eurasian economic integration at aggregate and industry levels using the gravity model of trade and the synthetic control methods. The analysis finds that the trade creation effect associated with the establishment of the Eurasian Customs Union in 2010 and its further deepening, while initially exhibiting high significance, largely dissipated towards the year 2015. Overall, the net impact was overwhelmingly positive for Belarus, generally positive for Russia and mixed for Kazakhstan. Most gains are attributed to the exports of commodities (mineral products and metals), agri-food sector, and, notably, machinery and transportation sectors. The inception of the Eurasian bloc was also associated with trade diversion effects, consistent with the expectations for trade-diverting customs unions, yet the impact on imports from some countries and sectors outside the bloc, on the contrary, was positive. |
| Keywords: | Eurasian integration, economic integration, trade policy impact, synthetic counterfactual method, gravity model of trade |
| JEL: | F13 F14 F15 |
| Date: | 2018–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:wpaper:150&r=cwa |
| By: | Gharleghi, Behrooz; Popov, Vladimir |
| Abstract: | In the 1980s, six former southern republics of the USSR (Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan), like other former Soviet republics, traded very intensively both between themselves and with the other Soviet republics, but had a meagre volume of trade with the rest of the world. After the transition to the market, the deregulation of foreign trade, and the collapse of the USSR in the 1990s, trade between the former Soviet republics shrank dramatically and was only partially replaced by trade with other countries, mostly from Western Europe. In the 2000s and 2010s, the relative importance of trade with Western Europe has declined and the share of trade with China and other Asian countries has grown. This paper compares changes in the geographical structure of trade of both former Soviet republics (Central Asian countries and Azerbaijan) and Turkey, with the predictions of the gravity model. The gravity model suggests that trade between two countries is proportionate to their respective GDPs and is inversely related to the geographical distance between them.2 Turkey serves as a yardstick for comparison. For Turkey, changes in its geographical trade structure resulted from a rise in the proportion of trade with Asian countries and a decline in the proportion of trade with other regions in the world economy. In contrast, for the former Soviet republics there was an additional reason for changes in their geographical trade structure: the collapse of trade within the former USSR. |
| Keywords: | Central Asia, Gravity Model, Trade |
| JEL: | F14 F17 |
| Date: | 2018–09–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:89041&r=cwa |
| By: | Apaydın, Şükrü |
| Abstract: | The main purpose of this study is to determine the relations between unemployment and entrepreneurship in Turkey. Thus, it is empirically investigated whether the effects of Schumpeter and Refugee are valid or not. In the study, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag – ARDL method was adopted and Turkey’s 2000-2016 period data were used. The results of estimation show that there is an inverse relationship between entrepreneurship and unemployment. Accordingly, when the rate of entrepreneurship increases, unemployment decreases or vice versa. Causality is from entrepreneurship to unemployment. In other words, the while the Schumpeter effect is valid, it is concluded that the refugee effect is invalid. |
| Keywords: | Entrepreneurship, Unemployment, ARDL Method, Turkey. |
| JEL: | C22 C51 E24 L26 O31 |
| Date: | 2018–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:88923&r=cwa |
| By: | khanalizadeh, bahman; kakaei, hamid; daneshzad, ali |
| Abstract: | Given the increasing number of international tourists and the growing role of the tourism industry in the economies of the country, identification of effective factors in attracting international tourists is more than necessary. Governments and the private sector need to identify the factors affecting the tourism industry in order to develop, compete and survive in the tourism industry. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to investigate factors affecting the attraction of international tourists to Iran using the ARDL test for the years 2015 to 1983. Therefore, the results of this study showed that the effect of all variables hotel development, merchandise trade, real exchange rate and real gross domestic product on international tourism In Iran, in the long-term and short-term positive and also bilateral relationship is between them. Also, the greatest impact on the increase in the number of tourists entering Iran is the real effective exchange rate and real GDP. |
| Keywords: | Hotel development; Real exchange rate; Tourism industry; ARDL; IRAN |
| JEL: | M21 O47 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:88837&r=cwa |
| By: | Tursoy, Turgut; Faisal, Faisal; Berk, Niyazi; Shahbaz, Muhammad |
| Abstract: | This study explores the association between stock prices, metal prices and economic activity, i.e. industrial production, for the Turkish economy for the period 1896M1-2016M12. The linear and non-linear analysis is conducted by applying the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) approaches. The combined cointegration approach is applied to test the robustness of the ARDL and NARDL approaches. The FMOLS, DOLS and CCR regressions are applied to examine the long-run effect of stock prices and metal prices on economic activity. The empirical results reveal that metal and stock prices have a positive impact on economic activity. Metal prices have a negative impact and economic activity has positive effects on stock prices. Furthermore, the NARDL model corroborates the findings obtained from the ARDL model. This paper presents policy guidelines to utilise metals as an economic tool to boost economic activity and stock prices. |
| Keywords: | Stock Price, Metals Price, Industrial Production, ARDL, NARDL |
| JEL: | C32 G12 |
| Date: | 2018–09–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:88899&r=cwa |
| By: | Elveren, Adem Yavuz; Özgür, Gökçer |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the effects of military expenditure on the rate of profits in Turkey during the period of 1950–2008 by employing a Markov-switching autoregression model within a Marxist framework for the first time. Findings show that the effect of military expenditure on profit rates is nonlinear—negative during turbulent years and positive in more tranquil years. The negative effects are larger than positive effects, but the probability of positive effects prevailing is larger. |
| Keywords: | military expenditures; profit rate; Turkey |
| JEL: | B5 B51 H5 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:88848&r=cwa |