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on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Vantomme, Katharina |
| Abstract: | After the breakdown of the Soviet Union many socioeconomic, but also demographic changes took place in Kazakhstan. The large collective farms have partly been broken up. The result was a tri-partitioned farm structure with agricultural enterprises including agroholdings, individual farms as well as household farms. Furthermore, a strong exodus especially from northern Kazakhstan took place, which included many skilled workers, leading to a scarcity of labour and to mismatches between skills offered and skills needed in agriculture. However, the potential of the Kazakh agriculture cannot be fully tapped without suitable labour. Thus, at present low productivity prevail. Therefore, a central term of the dissertation is the term "labour rationing". An agricultural unit is labour rationing if it is not able to find enough suitable workers even though it would be willing to pay a higher wage than the real wage. This dissertation focused on investigating labour rationing in the rural areas of Kazakhstan using two cross-sectional farm level data sets from 2003 and 2011 with data collected in the two oblasts, Akmola and Almaty. Besides, the production model under factor constraint was applied. From this model the shadow price analysis was derived with help of the Lagrangian method. Three Heckman models, for 2003, 2011 as well as for 2003 and 2011 together were estimated as well as the respective shadow prices of the different farm types. The latter were then compared with the real wages. All farm types faced an excess demand for labour. However, agroholdings suffered from the strongest labour rationing and thus, had most problem finding suitable workers, skilled workers in particular. Regarding the reasons for labour rationing, the analysis suggests mainly the following: * In 2011, agricultural producers that carried out joint activity with other agricultural units were less likely to be labour rationed than those that did not carry out any joint activity together with others. * Agricultural units with a peripheral and poorly connected location were more likely to be rationed on the labour market. Moreover, in Akmola oblast labour shortages were more severe than in Almaty oblast. * Regarding the value of machinery and movable equipment, it can be said that these factors normally rather attract workers, especially in Kazakhstan. However, in order to operate more sophisticated machinery more skills are needed. But skilled workers were particularly scarce. * Regarding education it cannot be clearly observed that more educated managers have fewer problems or more problems finding workers in Kazakhstan. Finally, it can be said that according to the data wages in agriculture in Kazakhstan did rise if 2003 and 2011 are compared, but so did the shadow wages. Thus, an excess demand for labour and the problem of labour rationing persist. Nevertheless, it seems that the labour productivity increased which might be due to investments in machinery. At the same time this means that especially skilled workers are in demand. |
| Keywords: | Demand and Price Analysis, Labor and Human Capital |
| Date: | 2017–12–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iamost:269557&r=cwa |
| By: | Fetzer, Thiemo (Department of Economics, University of Warwick); Eynde, Oliver Vanden (Paris School of Economics and CNRS); Wright, Austin L. (Harris School of Public Policy, University of Chicago) |
| Abstract: | How do foreign powers disengage from a conflict? We study the recent largescale security transition from international troops to local forces in the context of the ongoing civil conflict in Afghanistan. We construct a new dataset that combines information on this transition process with declassified conflict outcomes and previously unreleased quarterly survey data. Our empirical design leverages the staggered roll-out of the transition onset, together with a novel instrumental variables approach to estimate the impact of the two-phase security transition. We find that the initial security transfer to Afghan forces is marked by a significant, sharp and timely decline in insurgent violence. This effect reverses with the actual physical withdrawal of foreign troops. We argue that this pattern is consistent with a signaling model, in which the insurgents reduce violence strategically to facilitate the foreign military withdrawal. Our findings clarify the destabilizing consequences of withdrawal in one of the costliest conflicts in modern history and yield potentially actionable insights for designing future security transitions. |
| Keywords: | Counterinsurgency ; Civil Conflict ; Public Goods Provision JEL Classification: D72 ; D74 ; L23 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:383&r=cwa |
| By: | World Bank Group |
| Keywords: | International Economics and Trade - Export Competitiveness Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Economic Forecasting Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Economic Growth Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Economic Policy, Institutions and Governance Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Fiscal & Monetary Policy Poverty Reduction - Employment and Shared Growth Social Protections and Labor - Labor Markets Social Protections and Labor - Social Protections & Assistance |
| Date: | 2017–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:29440&r=cwa |
| By: | Richard Pomfret (University of Adelaide) |
| Abstract: | What is required for a poor country to turn a valuable resource endowment into a driver of development? The resource curse literature highlighted the importance of institutions and the nature of the resource, neither of which is a useful policy guide. A more recent literature views resource exploitation as a series of hurdles that must be negotiated: ensuring production, dividing revenues, and using the added public finance. The Kyrgyz Republic’s Kumtor gold mine is a useful case study in that the country cleared the first hurdle but over almost a quarter century was embroiled in negotiating the second hurdle. The paper assesses the extent to which such problems are inevitable for a small poor country, and the consequences of an extended conflictual process. |
| Keywords: | Resource curse, minerals, Kyrgyzstan |
| JEL: | Q32 O53 L72 N55 |
| Date: | 2018–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ost:wpaper:372&r=cwa |
| By: | Amir Sadeghi |
| Abstract: | Public investment is key to growth in developing oil-exporting countries and oil revenue is an important source of finance for public investment. Assessing the growth impact of public investment in Iran under various investment scaling-up (gradual, aggressive, and conservative) and oil price (baseline and adverse) scenarios, this paper shows that because of absorptive capacity constraint and investment inefficiency the growth outcome of an aggressive investment scaling-up is not significantly different from a conservative or a gradual scenario while its costs, in terms of fiscal adjustment, are significantly higher, especially during low oil price periods. An improvement in investment efficiency has a significant positive impact on growth outcome and leads to higher private consumption and investment. Using an oil fund, on the other hand, can help contain the size of fiscal adjustments, although it would result in a larger appreciation of real exchange rate and deterioration in the current account balance. |
| Keywords: | Middle East;Iran, Islamic Republic of;Public Investment; Growth; Oil Revenue; Investment Efficiency; Iran, Public Investment, Growth, Oil Revenue, Investment Efficiency, Iran, General, Exhaustible Resources and Economic Development |
| Date: | 2018–06–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:18/129&r=cwa |