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on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Paul, Saumik (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | Using a novel data set, this paper find that households with migrants experience a 26% drop in the labor force participation rate in four economies (Armenia, Azerbaijan, the Kyrgyz Republic, and Tajikistan) from the Central Asia and South Caucasus region. It is twice as large for households with permanent migrants as for households with seasonal migrants. The results do not alter in the presence of selection on unobservables, model misspecification, and selection bias due to the absence of more productive workers. Direct evidence on the remittances that each household received is not available. The empirical findings do, however, suggest the possibility of an increase in reservation wages. |
| Keywords: | emigration; labor mobility |
| JEL: | F22 J61 |
| Date: | 2018–03–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0822&r=cwa |
| By: | Hasan Cömert (Department of Economics, Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey); Erinç Yeldan (Department of Economics, Bilkent University, Ankara, Turkey) |
| Abstract: | Developing countries have encountered many economic crises since the 1980s, due mainly to structural problems related to their integration into the global economy. The Turkish economy is by no means an exception, and suffered significantly from the crises of 1994, 2001 and 2008–09. This paper investigates the tales of these three crises to shed light on the propagation mechanisms of crises and their implications for developing countries, given the Turkish experience. Our study is aiming at complementing existing studies by giving a very broad comparative picture of the main macroeconomic trends before and after the crises at the expense of ignoring many important details explained in other studies. This comparison can be also useful for understanding possible (and under current conditions highly unavoidable) implications of current developments in Turkish economy. Although there are many differences in the emergence of recent crises in Turkey, significant similarities can be found between the 1994 and 2001 crises. The crisis of 2008–09 can be considered exceptional in many aspects. The first two episodes were deemed to be mostly finance-led and finance-driven, with repercussions on the real sectors thereafter; but the 2008–09 crisis was a fully-fledged real sector crisis from the beginning, amid a direct collapse in employment and real economic productivity. |
| Keywords: | Turkish Economy, Developing Countries, Crises |
| JEL: | F32 E63 E66 G01 |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:met:wpaper:1809&r=cwa |
| By: | Altay, Serdar |
| Abstract: | Policy debate on the implications of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) for Turkey has focused almost exclusively on “how” Turkey can/will take part in a forthcoming transatlantic deal. Turkey's association with a TTIP has largely been conceived as an inevitable and beneficial policy choice to re‐engage Ankara with the Atlantic alliance and emerging transatlantic trade framework. The arguments for extending TTIP to Turkey have mostly been built upon a conventional understanding of preferential trade agreements. The debate has not provided a comprehensive assessment of costs and benefits for Turkey's exclusion from or joining TTIP as it dismissed multiple dimensions of the “deep integration” agenda which underpinned the transatlantic talks. This paper intends to contribute to the “why” debate with a thorough analysis of critical issues on the transatlantic agenda by evaluating economic and policy implications of TTIP both for exclusion and association scenarios together with associated compliance and adjustment costs. |
| Keywords: | TTIP, Turkey, Preferential Trade Agreements |
| JEL: | F13 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:87454&r=cwa |
| By: | Peter Havlik (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Gabor Hunya (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Yury Zaytsev |
| Abstract: | Foreign direct investment (FDI) has been the main driver of restructuring and modernisation in Central and Eastern Europe. This paper looks into FDI stocks and flows in a dynamic and cross-country perspective, comparing the key EAEU countries (Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia) as well as DCFTA countries (Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine) with selected EU-CEE peers (Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia) in the neighbourhood. The study shows that EAEU and DCFTA countries have not been particularly attractive for foreign investors taking out round tripping inflows from offshore destinations, the accumulated FDI would be even lower. This explains a lot why restructuring in the region stalls. This pattern can change only with marked improvements in the domestic regulatory environment and investment climate. |
| Keywords: | foreign direct investment, FDI flows and stocks, Eastern Europe, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine, FDI by key partners and sectors |
| JEL: | C82 F13 F14 O57 P23 |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:rpaper:rr:428&r=cwa |
| By: | Omid Karami; Mina Mahmoudi |
| Abstract: | Tariff liberalization and its impact on tax revenue is an important consideration for developing countries, because they are increasingly facing the difficult task of implementing and harmonizing regional and international trade commitments. The tariff reform and its costs for Iranian government is one of the issues that are examined in this study. Another goal of this paper is, estimating the cost of trade liberalization. On this regard, imports value of agricultural sector in Iran in 2010 was analyzed according to two scenarios. For reforming nuisance tariff, a VAT policy is used in both scenarios. In this study, TRIST method is used. In the first scenario, imports' value decreased to a level equal to the second scenario and higher tariff revenue will be created. The results show that reducing the average tariff rate does not always result in the loss of tariff revenue. This paper is a witness that different forms of tariff can generate different amount of income when they have same level of liberalization and equal effect on producers. Therefore, using a good tariff regime can help a government to generate income when increases social welfare by liberalization. |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1806.04238&r=cwa |
| By: | Mavisakalyan, Astghik; Minasyan, Anna |
| Abstract: | Recent evidence shows that highly skewed sex ratios at birth are observed not only in China and India, but also for a number of countries in the Southeast Europe and South Caucasus - a region that has seen eruptions of conflicts following the collapse of communist regimes. Yet, the role of conflict has been largely overlooked in the relevant literature on ”missing girls”. We argue that conflict and group survival concerns can exacerbate the initial son bias and lead to relatively more male births once low fertility levels and access to ultrasound technology are given. We test our hypotheses in the context of Nagorno Karabakh conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. First, individual-level survey analysis from Armenia shows that relatively stronger concern over national security and territorial integrity is significantly associated with son preference. Second, difference-in-difference panel analysis of community-level census data shows that once ceasefire breaches between Armenia and Azerbaijan intensified, Armenian communities closer to the conflict region exhibited relatively higher sex ratios at birth. |
| Keywords: | discrimination,sex ratios,conflict |
| JEL: | D74 J13 J16 O15 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:217&r=cwa |
| By: | Nurbekyan, Armen (Asian Development Bank Institute); Hovanessian, Naneh (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | Financial inclusion has significantly advanced in Armenia during the last decade. Rural and urban areas, however, have benefited unevenly. The high cost of providing financial services, the lack of physical infrastructure, higher poverty rates, and the low level of financial literacy are the main barriers to financial inclusion in the rural areas. The availability of, and the high level of trust in, postal services in all villages, along with innovative technologies, should be exploited to address the inadequate physical infrastructure. Insurance services, in particular health and agriculture insurance, have a high growth potential. Mandatory health insurance along with an e-health infrastructure can boost high-quality financial inclusion. Targeted financial education policies addressing the most vulnerable groups, in particular the rural population and the unemployed, will significantly increase the quality of financial inclusion. Addressing data gaps, especially in the small and medium-sized enterprises sector, should be a priority for policy makers. Overall, a clear separation of strategies for financial inclusion from the National Strategy for Financial Education clarifying quantitative goals and policies will be beneficial. |
| Keywords: | financial inclusion; financial literacy; regulation; Armenia |
| JEL: | G21 G28 I22 O16 |
| Date: | 2018–05–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0843&r=cwa |
| By: | Ibadoghlu, Gubad (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | We discuss the status of financial inclusion, education, and literacy in Azerbaijan as well as measures to foster the development of small and medium-sized enterprises, which currently have inadequate access to financial resources. The Government of Azerbaijan is facing the primary challenge of defining its role in creating broader access to financial products and services. We highlight the barriers to financial inclusion, recommend solutions to overcoming the challenges, and discuss lessons learned and a potential way forward. |
| Keywords: | financial inclusion; financial education; financial literacy; SME; household; Azerbaijan |
| JEL: | D14 D18 G21 G28 I28 |
| Date: | 2018–05–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0842&r=cwa |
| By: | Alekhina, Victoriia (Asian Development Bank Institute); Yoshino, Naoyuki (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the interrelationship between the main macroeconomic indicators of an oil exporting country and world oil prices using a vector autoregressive approach. We focus on an oil exporter that is not a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, and its oil revenues, which account for a significant proportion of the country’s total export and budget revenues. We explain the oil price transition mechanisms to this economy from the export side and through the fiscal channel, taking into account the monetary policy factor. The results suggest that oil price fluctuations have a significant impact on the oil exporting country’s real gross domestic product, consumer price index inflation rate, interest rate, and exchange rate. Moreover, to estimate monetary policy rule for this energy exporter, we test the Taylor equation and associated Taylor rule, including the oil prices gap, since the latter may have a significant impact on the key policy rate. The evidence suggests that the Taylor rule describes the post-financial crisis monetary policy of this economy relatively well. Finally, we discuss future research and lessons from this economy for monetary policy makers. |
| Keywords: | oil prices; energy exporters; macro-economy; VAR model |
| JEL: | Q41 Q43 Q48 |
| Date: | 2018–03–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0828&r=cwa |
| By: | Vasily Astrov (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Mahdi Ghodsi (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Richard Grieveson (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Robert Stehrer (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | The Iranian economy has greatly benefited from the lifting of international sanctions in 2016, when the JCPOA nuclear deal came into force. Oil production and exports rebounded strongly, which spilled over into non-oil sectors. However, the economy is yet to return to its 1976 peak in real per capita GDP terms, reflecting numerous challenges over the past four decades, including poor policy choices and the fallout from persistent conflict with the US. This report presents a broad overview of the Iranian economy, and identifies the main challenges to long-run economic development, including in foreign trade and investment, fiscal, monetary and exchange rate policy, and the institutional environment. It concludes that an already difficult situation for Iranian policy-makers will be exacerbated by the US decision to pull out of the JCPOA, and the introduction of new sanctions. |
| Keywords: | Iran, European Union, international trade, foreign direct investment, macroeconomic environment, privatisation, political economy of sanctions |
| JEL: | E02 E62 F19 F31 F51 G32 O13 P48 |
| Date: | 2018–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:rpaper:rr:429&r=cwa |