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on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Ali Enami (CEQ Institute); Nora Lustig (CEQ Institute) |
| Abstract: | In December 2010, Iran replaced its energy and bread subsidies with an unconditional and universal cash transfer (UCT). In the short-run, this shift away from generalized subsidies had a significant effect on poverty. Studies show that the direct effect of the reform was a reduction in the headcount ratio from 22.5% to 10.6%. However, since the introduction of the reform, inflation has severely eroded the real value of the transfer because adjustments to its nominal value have been minimal in comparison. We estimate that after five years, during which time there was a cumulative 136.5% increase in prices (since 2011/2012 or 1390 in the Iranian calendar), the real value of the transfer was cut nearly in half. As a result of this cut, the poverty reducing effect of the transfer declined by about 40%, which translates into roughly a 5 percentage point increase in the headcount ratio. We find that this deleterious consequence of inflation is much higher in rural areas where the contribution of the transfer to the reduction in the incidence of poverty declines from 21.9 to 11.0 percentage points over the course of these five years. The only way for the UCT to recover the poverty reducing results observed at the beginning, without increasing the budget, is by making it a more targeted program focused on the poorest 40% of the population. |
| Keywords: | Inflation, incidence analysis, universal cash transfer, poverty, Iran |
| JEL: | D31 D63 H22 I32 I38 |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tul:ceqwps:68&r=cwa |
| By: | Yılmaz, Engin; Süslü, Bora |
| Abstract: | The effect of monetary and fiscal policy on the output depends on the frequency of price changes. When the prices change infrequently or prices change slowly, monetary and fiscal policy have a real effects on the output. Developed countries generally have a rigid prices but developing countries have a relatively flexible prices. This difference is originated from the reality that the developing countries have higher average inflation than the developed countries. Economic literature focuses on the micro reasons of the frequency of price changes, on the other hand, the inflation is seen the main factor which affects the frequency of price changes in the macro perspective. This study holds down the assumption that the frequency of price changes is a function of the inflation rate in the macro perspective. In addition to this, it is also focused on the direct relationships between the frequency of price changes and the macro variables which affect the inflation rate. It is revealed the effect of macro factors on the frequency of price changes in this work. It is concluded that the determinants of the frequency of price changes in the macro perspective in Turkey are the expected inflation and the exchange rate rather than output gap. It can be said that firms’ price frequency behavior directly depends on cost push factors in Turkey. |
| Keywords: | Price Frequency, Price Frequency Calculation, Price Rigidity |
| JEL: | E30 E31 |
| Date: | 2018–04–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:86350&r=cwa |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Growth rebounded sharply in 2017, helped by strong policy stimulus in the wake of the 2016 post-coup attempt slump and by favorable external conditions. Although expansionary policies were initially warranted, they are no longer appropriate as the economy is showing clear signs of overheating. Monetary policy appears too loose and its credibility is low; and on- and off-budget fiscal policies (including credit guarantee schemes and PPP activities) are expansionary and risk undermining Turkey’s hard-earned fiscal credibility. As a result, the economy faces internal and external imbalances: a positive output gap, inflation well above target, and a current account deficit of more than 5 percent of GDP. Meanwhile, political uncertainty and regional instability remain elevated, and the integration of the many refugees poses challenges. |
| Date: | 2018–04–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:18/110&r=cwa |
| By: | Kainazarova, Cholpon |
| Abstract: | Kyrgyzstan’s foreign policy is characterized to be multi-dimensional or multi vector concentrated on the consolidation of flexible and many-sided external relations with its neighboring states and regional players. In the historical perspective, international relations experts and scholars argue that “Kyrgyzstan’s first president Askar Akaev is considered to be the founder of the multi-vector foreign policy in the Kyrgyz Republic”(Dimensions, p.62). As a result, the new-born country started to participate in international foreign policy agendas through signing bilateral agreements with its allies and attracting intergovernmental and non-governmental organizations from various corners of the world. It is argued that there are several factors which cause multi-vector policy. If some political experts highlight that it is connected due to size and dependency of Kyrgyzstan from other countries, others also refer to poor economic situation and security concerns. In this regard Yasar Sari stated “Geopolitical and geo-economic situation of Kyrgyzstan complicated the development of an independent foreign policy. Therefore, Kyrgyzstan introduced a multi-vector foreign policy”(2017, p.137) One could agree with the fact that Kyrgyzstan, like Tadjikistan, is economically poor and has relatively less natural resources than other Central Asian countries. Indisputably, it was one of the main factors to strengthen cooperation and partnership in regional scope and beyond the region. The paper aims to investigate the new tendencies from the major three dimensions of external foreign policy which are regional, continental and global areas. According to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Kyrgyz Republic, “The regional approach is implemented to strengthen good and friendly relations with neighboring states, continental approach is aimed at developing diplomatic relations with major powers like Russia, the USA the European Union, China, Turkey and the global approach prioritizes active engagement in UN system”(Dimensions, 2008, p.64). Therefore, this paper will strongly attempt to introduce with the main transformations under the governance of the president Soorobai Jeenbekov and will tackle recent political events in the formation of foreign policy objectives of the state nowadays. The paper focuses on question: What foreign policy actions and resolutions have been produced since the presidency of Sooronbai Jeenbekov in Kyrgyzstan? |
| Keywords: | Kyrgyzstan, Foreign Policy, New Trends, Central Asia |
| JEL: | F00 K0 K00 Q1 Q10 |
| Date: | 2018–05–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:86491&r=cwa |