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on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Dilem Yıldırım (Department of Economics, Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey); Onur A. Koska (Department of Economics, Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey) |
| Abstract: | This study would like to contribute to the existing literature on the Feldstein-Horioka paradox by focusing on Turkey for the period 1960-2014 and by scrutinizing the correlation between domestic savings and investments within a time-varying parameter approach (which is warranted especially for emerging countries due to their political and economic instability and due to the frequency of policy changes). Our time-varying parameter approach is able to capture the impact of various economic and political interruptions on the correlation between domestic savings and investments, especially the military coups in the early 1960s, 1970s and 1980s, and the economic and financial crises in the mid-1990s, in the late 1990s, and in the early 2000s, as well as the financial crises affecting various countries in the globe in the late 1990s and 2000s. Our empirical analysis suggests a high correlation between domestic savings and investments in the 1960s, which was decreasing (increasing) during the 1970s (1980s), and which was decreasing since the 1990s. Furthermore, in the post-2002 era, with a further decline in the correlation coefficient, the saving-investment nexus has turned out to be statistically insignificant. |
| Keywords: | Feldstein-Horioka Paradox; Turkey; Economic and financial crises; Structural breaks; Time-varying parameter approach |
| JEL: | E21 E22 F21 C32 C51 G01 |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:met:wpaper:1808&r=cwa |
| By: | Jakhongir Kakhkharov |
| Keywords: | Remittances, Financial System, Transition Economies |
| JEL: | F22 F24 G21 P51 |
| Date: | 2018–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gri:fpaper:finance:201803&r=cwa |
| By: | Shevchenko, Yelena; Stukach, Victor |
| Abstract: | Development of the national science, technology and innovation (STI) strategy is a complicated process associated with a high level of uncertainty. Establishment of efficient framework for STI policy planning in Kazakhstan is an essential element of the sustainable policy planning system. From a perspective of future management, foresight provides a basis for decision-making process by identifying key areas for a long-term investments and assessing long-term perspectives of science, technology, economy and society. Foresight allows setting up future priorities by focusing on different aspects of anticipated changes. The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the role of foresight in the decision-making process and to elaborate recommendations on effective integration of national foresight results into the process of STI policy planning in Kazakhstan. |
| Keywords: | foresight, forecast, future studies, government policies, STI priorities, strategic policy planning, emerging issue analysis, priority setting, S&T program planning, strategic planning system, International Experience foresight. |
| JEL: | O2 O21 O3 O32 O33 |
| Date: | 2017–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:86216&r=cwa |