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on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Gatskova, Kseniia; Kozlov, Vladimir |
| Abstract: | Previous literature suggests that households may react to wealth fluctuations by increasing or decreasing the number of members sharing the same residence. We use a unique three-wave household panel data from Tajikistan to explore the change in household size as a response to income shifts related to international labor migration. In addition, we analyze the interaction between effects of idiosyncratic income increase resulted from a successful migration episode and the one of an aggregate shock – the global financial crisis – and show how different households adjust their family size during times of financial hardship. The empirical evidence indicates that the successful migration episode two years before the interview was associated with a decrease in family size due to some of the family members’ moving out. At the same time, people were more likely to live in larger households during the crisis year than before and after the crisis. Empirical analysis yields that migrant families were not different from non-migrant families with respect to the doubling up as response to financial crisis, which suggests that labor migration in Tajikistan does not insure against economic shocks in the long run. |
| Keywords: | migration, remittances, household size, living arrangements, Tajikistan |
| JEL: | F22 D1 J1 |
| Date: | 2018–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:hitcei:2017-6&r=cwa |
| By: | Akgündüz, Yusuf Emre; Torun, Huzeyfe |
| Abstract: | We investigate how the rapid increase in the low-skilled labor supply induced by the inflow of 2.5 million Syrian refugees changed the tasks performed by native workers and the amount of capital used by firms in Turkey. Despite the unexpected nature of the refugee inflow, location choice of the refugees may be endogenous to the labor market opportunities of hosting regions. To handle this endogeneity issue, we use an instrument for the refugee intensity based on the distance of Turkish regions to the Syrian ones. The results based on Labor Force Survey suggest that the inflow of refugees increased natives’ task complexity, reducing the intensity of manual tasks, and raising the intensity of abstract, routine and ICT tasks. This effect is particularly strong for natives with medium level of education. Exploiting the administrative firm data that contains the entirety of firms in the country, we find that the firms reduced their fixed assets. The fixed asset reduction is largest in machinery and equipment, which can be interpreted as a decline in the capital intensity of production. We conclude that tasks provided by Syrian refugees are substitutes for natives’ manual tasks and firms’ capital, and complementary to natives’ more complex tasks. |
| Keywords: | Migration,refugees,labor-capital substitution,skills,tasks |
| JEL: | F22 J24 J21 D24 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:186&r=cwa |
| By: | Radha Iyengar; Jacob N. Shapiro; Stephen Hegarty |
| Abstract: | This report summarizes findings from a review of 89 studies on development and stabilization programming in Afghanistan. |
| Date: | 2017–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ran:wpaper:wr-1191&r=cwa |
| By: | Radha Iyengar; Jacob N. Shapiro; Benjamin Crisman; Manu Singh; James Mao |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes data from multiple sources to better understand the relationship between stabilization programming and trends in key outcomes — including: security, popular support for the government, popular support for antigovernment elements, community cohesion and resilience, health of the Afghan people, economic well-being of the Afghan people, and conflict. |
| Date: | 2017–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ran:wpaper:wr-1192&r=cwa |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Context: Despite the sharp drawdown of NATO troops in 2014 and the deteriorated security situation, the National Unity Government (NUG) is making good progress in economic reforms and growth has picked up modestly. The coming electoral cycle is expected to usher in a period of political uncertainty, leading to a more difficult environment for reform implementation. The donor community continues to actively support Afghanistan, as demonstrated by the successful donor conference in October 2016, while the U.S. government recently reaffirmed its continued military support. Outlook and risks: The baseline scenario envisages growth at 2.5 to 3 percent in 2017– 18, too low to prevent unemployment from rising further. Inflation is expected to be modest, and buffers should remain comfortable. The outlook is subject to significant downside risks, including a possible further deterioration in the security environment, a shortfall in grants, or stalled reforms. The key upside risk is lasting peace, which would boost inclusive growth. |
| Keywords: | Middle East;Afghanistan, Islamic Republic of; |
| Date: | 2017–12–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:17/377&r=cwa |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Selected Issues |
| Keywords: | Afghanistan, Islamic Republic of;Middle East; |
| Date: | 2017–12–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:17/378&r=cwa |
| By: | Hache, E.; Massol, O. |
| Abstract: | Iran’s energy and petrochemical exports have recently been restricted by a series of international sanctions. This paper focuses on one of the country’s exports, namely methanol - a petrochemical increasingly used for fuel blending and traded at various locations worldwide – and empirically explores the relationships among the North American, European, and Asian markets to investigate the incidence of these sanctions. The analyses are conducted under a parity bounds framework based on Negassa and Myers (2007). The model was applied to the main methanol importing markets to estimate the effects of the sanctions on the degree of spatial integration. The findings document the occurrence of a complete reconfiguration of the spatial extent of the methanol markets. Under the sanctions, an increased degree of market integration was observed across the Atlantic, while fragmentation rose between Europe, South East Asia, and the two giant economies of China and India which both experienced lower prices. |
| Keywords: | Iran; sanctions; law of one price; market integration; methanol |
| Date: | 2016–04–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cty:dpaper:14973&r=cwa |