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on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Tanase, Ion Alexandru |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to underline the key measures that Azerbaijan took during the past 20 years in regards to sustainable development. Although the country broke up from the Soviet Union in the 1990s, there has been a particular and precise preoccupation regarding its evolution as a nation. It is important to underline the fact that, in present time, Azerbaijan is an important country in the South Caucasus, which has economic relations with other parties such as the European Union, Turkey, Russia, and others. These relationships are based, mostly, on the fact that Azerbaijan is a reach resource country that supplies many countries with oil and gas. |
| Keywords: | Azerbaijan; sustainable development; economy; plan; petroleum |
| JEL: | H6 L7 N7 O21 P00 |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:82437&r=cwa |
| By: | Mohammad Reza Farzanegan (University of Marburg); Bernd Hayo (University of Marburg) |
| Abstract: | Using Iranian-province-level data from 2001–2013, this study finds that the international sanctions of 2012/2013 had a significantly stronger negative impact on the growth rate of the shadow economy than they did on the official GDP growth rate. Thus, the international sanctions on Iran have damaged the informal economy even more than the formal economy. |
| Keywords: | shadow economy, sanctions, Iran |
| JEL: | F51 E26 O17 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mar:magkse:201807&r=cwa |
| By: | Evren Erdogan Cosar; Saygýn Sahinoz |
| Abstract: | In this study, firstly, we construct indices reflecting the financial uncertainty and the uncertainty perception of different agents such as consumers, firms and forecasters. Then, we develop an index of Economic Policy Uncertainty based on newspaper coverage frequency. In a dynamic factor model framework, we combine these indices to obtain an aggregate measure of economic uncertainty for the Turkish economy. Finally, by using this measure, we investigate the impact of uncertainty on economic activity via vector autoregression models. Empirical evidence shows that uncertainty has adverse impacts on economic growth, consumption and investment in Turkey. The impacts typically take two to three quarters to reach the maximum effect and the most severe effects of uncertainty are observed on investment. |
| Keywords: | Uncertainty, Business cycle, Turkey |
| JEL: | C22 C52 D81 E32 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1806&r=cwa |
| By: | Ugur, Mehmet |
| Abstract: | The Turkish ruling elite, led by the Justice and Development Party (AKP) and its chief Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has been consolidating the most oppressive regime that Europe has witnessed since World War II. The consolidation has unfolded under the gaze of European governments and institutions. To make the case for a radical change in the policy stance, I locate the failure of the European elites to take a credible stance against rising authoritarianism within the corrosive nature of the neo-liberal world order. Then I highlight the gross violations that the Turkish regime has committed domestically and against its neighbours. Finally, I distil a number of policy implications that require urgent action on the part of European governments and institutions, indicating that the European governments and institutions are likely to act only if the European civil society act as a last line of defence in support of human rights, democracy and accountability in Europe and beyond. |
| Keywords: | dictatorship; Turkey; policy Change |
| Date: | 2018–02–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gpe:wpaper:19297&r=cwa |
| By: | Selen Andic |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the potential output and output gap in Turkey using a multivariate filter. The filter employed links the output gap to slack in the labor market and changes in inflation. Additionally, it produces the output gap taking into account some macroeconomic variables. Though end-of-sample problem remains an issue, results show that the output gap estimates provided by the multivariate filter have a stronger relationship with inflation and are subject to smaller revisions compared to the Hodrick-Prescott filter. |
| Keywords: | Filter, Potential growth, Output gap, Turkey |
| JEL: | C51 E32 O40 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1807&r=cwa |
| By: | Mahmut Gunay |
| Abstract: | In this paper, industrial production growth and core inflation are forecasted using a large number of domestic and international indicators. Two methods are employed, factor models and forecast combination, to deal with the curse of dimensionality problem stemming from the availability of ever growing data sets. A comprehensive analysis is carried out to understand the sensitivity of the forecast performance of factor models to various modelling choices. In this respect, effects of factor extraction method, number of factors, data aggregation level and forecast equation type on the forecasting performance are analyzed. Moreover, the effect of using certain data blocks such as European Union variables and interest rates on the forecasting performance is evaluated as well. Out-of-sample forecasting exercise is conducted for two consecutive periods to assess the stability of the forecasting performance. Results show that best performing specifications depend on the type of the variable that one wants to forecast, the forecast horizon and the sample period used to evaluate the out-of-sample forecasting performance. Factor models perform better than the combination of bi-variate forecasts. |
| Keywords: | Forecasting, Factor models, Principal component |
| JEL: | E37 C53 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1805&r=cwa |
| By: | Bağış, Bilal; Yurtseven, Çağlar |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to analyze potential future areas of greater cooperation between Turkey and the other OIC member economies. It then provides some specific policy recommendations. In particular, the paper aims to contribute to economic policymaking efforts in terms of the potential future areas of increased cooperation. Broadly speaking, the Muslim world has immense savings-holding accumulated over the past few decades. Human and physical capital potentials are extremely high. Yet, there are also huge economic disparities and extremely diverse demographic dynamics. This paper is built on the idea that a crucial strategy to boost economic development and social prosperity is an intense economic, financial and strategic integraton of the OIC members. In particular, countries with common historical, cultural and even religious backgrounds have much to gain from such specific collaboration efforts. In that line, this paper deals with opportunities and challenges regarding the strategic position of Turkey. It focuses on sectors in which Turkey has a comparative advantage within the OIC league. It further analyzes the reasons Turkey and the other OIC economies must cooperate and build stronger economic ties. The paper suggests that such a modern economic cooperation or a strategic union that is strengthened by historical, social and cultural roots is both inevitable and to the benefit of all parties. |
| Keywords: | OIC, Turkey, International Trade, Economic Cooperation, Comparative Advantage |
| JEL: | F2 F4 F5 O1 O3 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:84049&r=cwa |