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on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Ketenci, Natalya |
| Abstract: | This study presents an empirical analysis of the impact of the global financial crisis on the economic development of the Eurasian region. The region covers fifteen states of the former Soviet Union: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Russian Federation, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, Uzbekistan. Emerging economies of estimated countries are highly attractive for foreign investors, who stimulate economic growth in the region. This paper particularly investigates the relationship between economic growth and international capital flows in the Eurasian region before and after the global financial crisis. Panel estimations using annual data for the period 1990-2014 are made applying the Generalized Method of Moments estimation technique for the dynamic panel data, developed by Hansen (1982). Empirical results reveal that the main determinant of the regions’ economic development is FDI inflow. This study finds evidence that after the global financial crisis, economic growth in the region becomes more responsive to capital flows compared to the pre-crisis period. |
| Keywords: | Economic growth, capital flows, generalized method of moments (GMM), Eurasia, dynamic panel data. |
| JEL: | F43 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:83780&r=cwa |
| By: | Vugar Ahmadov (Central Bank of the Republic of Azerbaijan); Ulvi Sarkarli (Central Bank of the Republic of Azerbaijan); Ramiz Rahmanov (Central Bank of the Republic of Azerbaijan) |
| Abstract: | This study aims to analyse the discretionary fiscal policy of Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Russia for the period 2003-2015 using the structural budget balance (SBB). The SBB considers the permanent component of oil revenue and therefore clearly defines the discretionary fiscal position and the aggregate demand effect of fiscal policy. The SBBs in Azerbaijan and Russia experience a deficit for most of the analysed period. A moderate SBB surplus is observed in Kazakhstan. The estimated SBBs also demonstrate that fiscal policies tend to be mainly pro-cyclical in Kazakhstan and Russia. Azerbaijan conducted a counter-cyclical fiscal policy for half of the investigated period. Moreover, governments placed more importance on economic stabilization in 2009 due to the global financial crisis. |
| Keywords: | fiscal policy, structural budget balance, oil-rich countries, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Russia |
| JEL: | E62 H60 |
| Date: | 2018–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gii:giihei:heidwp01-2018&r=cwa |
| By: | Sumru Altug (Koc University, Istanbul and Centre for Economic Policy Research, London); Melih Can Firat (Johns Hopkins University, Maryland) |
| Abstract: | The Turkish macroeconomic experience since 2002 has been characterized by three striking trends: (1) an accelerated growth rate of income, (2) a sharp decline in the real interest rate, and (3) a sustained fall in the saving rate of different age-groups. During the same period, there has also been a significant increase in access to credit by Turkish households. In this paper, we argue that a model which incorporates a borrowing constraint mechanism together with the observed increases in the expected growth rate of income and the substantial declines in the real interest rate is able to explain the change in saving across cohorts in Turkey over the last decade. We provide both micro-level evidence on the age-saving profile for Turkey as well as quantitative results from a simple three-period OLG framework with borrowing constraints to account for the change in the saving rate for different age-groups between 2004 and 2014. |
| Keywords: | Borrowing constraints, life-cycle household saving, nonlinear estimation, Turkey. |
| JEL: | C78 D61 D78 I20 |
| Date: | 2018–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:koc:wpaper:1804&r=cwa |
| By: | Ozgoren, Ayse; Ergocmen, Banu; Tansel, Aysit |
| Abstract: | The relationship between fertility and employment among women is a challenging topic that requires further exploration, especially for developing countries where the micro and macro evidence fails to paint a clear picture. This study analyzes the two-way relationship between women’s employment and fertility in Turkey using a hazard approach with piece-wise constant exponential modelling, using data from the 2008 Turkey Demographic and Health Survey. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study that makes use of an event history analysis to analyze this relationship within a developing country context. Specifically, a separate analysis is made of the association between the employment statuses of women in their first, second, third, and fourth and higher order conceptions, and the association of fertility and its various dimensions with entry and exit from employment. The findings suggest that a two-way negative association exists between fertility and employment among women in Turkey, with increasing intensities identified among some groups of women. Our findings also cast light on how contextual changes related to the incompatibility of the roles of worker and mother have transformed the fertility-employment relationship in Turkey, in line with propositions of the role incompatibility hypothesis. |
| Keywords: | Fertility, Employment, Women, Event History Analysis, Turkey |
| JEL: | C41 J13 J16 |
| Date: | 2017–12–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:83420&r=cwa |
| By: | Shukhrat Kholmuminov (Banking and Finance Academy of the Republic of Uzbekistan); Robert E Wright (Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde) |
| Abstract: | Over the last decade, the revenue structure of public higher education institutions (HEIs) in Uzbekistan has changed from full government funding to mostly tuition funding. In this paper, a stochastic cost frontier analysis is used in order to examine whether the institutional financial resources obtained mostly from tuition revenue have been utilised efficiently or inefficiently at 58 public HEIs during the period of 2000 to 2013. The Battese and Coelli (1995) method is applied to measure the influences of institution, staff and student characteristics on cost efficiency of the universities. According to mean efficiency scores, the Uzbek universities are not remarkably cost efficient in producing education and research outputs, although the significant improvements in the efficiency followed throughout the sample period. Findings also reveal that HEIs with a greater share of government allocations are less cost efficient relative to those institutions with a smaller share of government allocations. |
| Keywords: | stochastic frontier, cost efficiency, higher education, Uzbekistan |
| JEL: | I21 P20 |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:str:wpaper:1704&r=cwa |
| By: | Shukhrat Kholmuminov (Banking and Finance Academy of the Republic of Uzbekistan); Shayzak Kholmuminov (Tashkent State University of Economics); Robert E Wright (Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde) |
| Abstract: | Since the early years of independence in 1991, a central topic of higher education in Uzbekistan has been how to fill the gap left by the reduced government funding at public higher education institutions (HEIs). The majority of the Uzbek universities, as in many other countries, have responded to the decline in public allocations through charging significantly increased tuition fees. Therefore, the revenue structure of public HEIs has changed from full government funding to mostly tuition funding over the last decade. Utilising resource dependence theory (RDT), this study empirically investigates whether or not increased institutional reliance on tuition fees as a main source of revenue has augmented the share of institutional expenditures dedicated to educational activities at public HEIs in Uzbekistan over the period 2000-2013. Drawing on a 14-year panel of university-level data and employing an instrumental variable approach that acknowledges the potential endogeneity of institutional tuition revenue, the analysis suggests that institutional expenditures for educational expenses are considerably increased as institutions became more dependent on tuition revenue for their financially sustainable operation. This finding is consistent with the predictions of RDT. Robustness of the empirical findings is also checked utilising several diagnostic models, and the results revealed that the IVs applied during the TSLS estimations are valid and they simultaneously uncorrelated with the error term. |
| Keywords: | resource dependence theory, higher education finance, Uzbekistan |
| JEL: | I21 P20 |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:str:wpaper:1703&r=cwa |