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on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Gerhard Toews; Alexander Libman |
| Abstract: | The accumulation of human capital is usually considered an important corner stone in a country’s economic development. While the use of resource rents to improve an educational system and, thus, increase the level of human capital appears to be an attractive option, resource rich economies frequently struggle with an efficient management of resource revenues. In this paper, we ask whether private individuals can at least partly compensate for government’s failures by analysing the consequences of a resource boom on private demand for education. To do this we use the Household Budget Survey of Kazakhstan covering the period of 2001–2005. The oil boom provides us with the necessary exogenous variation to establish causality. We show that, in resource-rich districts of Kazakhstan, the resource boom increases the probability of employment in the formal sector for the educated labour force and the likelihood that households pay tuition fees for tertiary education. We are able to refute the conjecture that our effect is driven merely by the growing income of the households, by the growing supply of educational opportunities or by the immigration of educated households. |
| Keywords: | Resource Booms, Education |
| JEL: | Q33 I25 |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ost:wpaper:370&r=cwa |
| By: | Aslihan Atabek Demirhan; Hakan Ercan |
| Abstract: | Turkey experienced three economic crises in recent decades that provides natural experiment environment for researchers. In this paper, we studied the impact of recent three different economic crisis on export behavior of Turkish manufacturing firms using firm level annual panel data for 1990-2014 period. By investigating the impact of crisis on both the decision to become an exporter and volume of exports, export behavior of Turkish manufacturing firms under crisis is diagnosed. Estimation results reveal differentiated impact of different types of crisis on export behavior of Turkish manufacturing firms. According to the results, export boom observed with 1994 crisis was mainly due to the increase in extensive margin. Devaluated currency together with shrinking domestic demand in 1994 crisis lead to an increase in export propensity of the firms. Although sharp currency devaluation and domestic demand contraction supported incumbent exporters to increase their export volume, the accompanied credit crunch in 2001 crisis hindered entrance of new firms into export markets. Significant international trade collapse with 2008 global financial crisis caused declines in both export propensity and export volume of the Turkish manufacturing firms. These findings have implications on both what types of export promotion and incentives should be provided (or not) and to whom this assistance should be provided for dissimilar shocks in an emerging market economy like Turkey. |
| Keywords: | Export behavior, Crisis, Firm-level data, Turkey, Logit model, Selectivity correction |
| JEL: | F14 L25 C23 C25 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1802&r=cwa |
| By: | Ayse Abbasoglu Ozgoren (Department of Demography, Hacettepe University Institute of Population Studies); Banu Ergocmen (Department of Demography, Hacettepe University Institute of Population Studies); Aysit Tansel (Department of Economics, Middle East Technical University, IZA (Germany) and ERF (Egypt)) |
| Abstract: | The relationship between fertility and employment among women is a challenging topic that requires further exploration, especially for developing countries where the micro and macro evidence fails to paint a clear picture. This study analyzes the two-way relationship between women’s employment and fertility in Turkey using a hazard approach with piece-wise constant exponential modelling, using data from the 2008 Turkey Demographic and Health Survey. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study that makes use of an event history analysis to analyze this relationship within a developing country context. Specifically, a separate analysis is made of the association between the employment statuses of women in their first, second, third, and fourth and higher order conceptions, and the association of fertility and its various dimensions with entry and exit from employment. The findings suggest that a two-way negative association exists between fertility and employment among women in Turkey, with increasing intensities identified among some groups of women. Our findings also cast light on how contextual changes related to the incompatibility of the roles of worker and mother have transformed the fertility-employment relationship in Turkey, in line with propositions of the role incompatibility hypothesis. |
| Keywords: | Fertility, Employment, Women, Event History Analysis, Turkey. |
| JEL: | C41 J13 J16 |
| Date: | 2018–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:koc:wpaper:1801&r=cwa |
| By: | A. Hakan Kara; Fethi Ogunc; Cagri Sarikaya |
| Abstract: | [EN] This study investigates the key drivers of consumer inflation in Turkey during the inflation targeting period covering 2006-2016. We estimate a reduced-form time-varying parameter (TVP) Phillips curve for core inflation, defined as CPI excluding unprocessed food, alcoholic beverages and tobacco. TVP estimates suggest that there is a clear decline in import price pass-through in recent years whereas pass-through from exchange rates to domestic inflation is relatively stable. Using this setup, we compute the contribution of macro variables such as exchange rate, import prices, output gap and real unit wages to inflation. We document the changes in inflation dynamics over the past decade, particularly focusing on the two distinct episodes of inflation targeting in terms of monetary policy implementation and discuss implications for price stability. Overall, our results suggest that achieving price stability requires a holistic approach embedding both cyclical and structural policies. [TR] Bu calismada Turkiye’de uygulanmakta olan enflasyon hedeflemesi rejiminin 2006-2016 yillarini kapsayan donemi icin enflasyonun temel makro belirleyicileri incelenmektedir. Parametreleri zamana gore degisen bir Phillips egrisi tahmin edilerek elde edilen bulgular, ithalat fiyat geciskenliginin son yillarda azaldigina, doviz kuru geciskenliginin ise goreli olarak daha istikrarli seyrettigine isaret etmektedir. Bu yaklasim kullanilarak, doviz kuru, ithalat fiyatlari, cikti acigi ve reel birim ucret gibi makro degiskenlerin enflasyona katkisi hesaplanmaktadir. Calismada ayni zamanda enflasyon hedeflemesinin iki farkli alt donemi ele alinarak degisen enflasyon dinamikleri irdelenmekte ve politika cikarimlari yapilmaktadir. Bulgularimiz, fiyat istikrarina ulasmak icin konjonkturel ve yapisal politikalarin bir arada ele alindigi butuncul bir yaklasimin onemine isaret etmektedir. |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1703&r=cwa |
| By: | Altan Aldan; Hatice Burcu Gurcihan Yunculer |
| Abstract: | [EN] Wage rate is one of the most important variables for policy makers and macro economists. It can be used as an indicator of economic growth and inflationary pressures. However, the average wage growth could also lead to misinterpretations as it involves composition changes in the labor market. In this study, we use Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition technique to filter out the effects of these composition changes on wage growth for the period of 2005-2016. Our results suggest that transformation of the economic structure and the labor force composition increased wages in this period. Besides, the magnitude of this composition effect is not homogeneous across years. Hence, conclusions based on aggregate wage data should be drawn carefully. [TR] Ucretlerdeki artis orani politika yapicilar ve makro iktisatcilar icin en onemli degiskenlerden birisidir. Ucretlerde artis ekonomik buyume ve enflasyonist baskilar konusunda bir gosterge olarak kullanilabilir. Ancak, ortalama ucret artisi verisi isgucu piyasasindaki kompozisyon degisimlerini de icerdiginden hatali yorumlara yol acabilir. Bu calismada, 2005-2016 donemi icin, Oaxaca-Blinder ayristirma yontemi kullanilarak soz konusu kompozisyon degisimlerinden arindirilmis ucret artis verisi elde edilmistir. Calismanin bulgulari, ekonomik yapidaki ve isgucundeki donusum surecinin bu donemde ucretler ustunde artirici bir etkisinin olduguna isaret etmektedir. Ayrica, soz konusu kompozisyon etkisinin boyutu yillar icinde farklilik gosterebilmektedir. Bu nedenle, ortalama ucret artislari kullanilarak yapilacak yorumlarda temkinli olunmalidir. |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1706&r=cwa |
| By: | Doruk Kucuksarac |
| Abstract: | [EN] Yield curves provide critical information to both policy makers and market practitioners. The most commonly used yield curve methodologies are Extended Nelson-Siegel (ENS) and B-spline Basis with various smoothing penalty functions. In this paper, the Cubic B-spline Basis with variable roughness penalty (VRP) methodology is applied on Turkish Treasury bonds and is compared with the ENS methodology. The yield curves constructed under both methods give quite similar results across different maturities. Comparison of in-sample performances indicates that both methods provide similar zero rate curves but in-sample fit of Cubic B-spline Basis with VRP is superior to that of ENS, in particular at the long end of the term structure. Out-of-sample errors of both models are quite close to each other. Nevertheless, out-of-sample performance of the VRP model is superior at the short end of the term structure whereas the ENS dominates at the long end. [TR] Getiri egrileri politika yapicilar ve piyasa oyunculari acisindan onemli bilgi degeri tasimaktadirlar. Genisletilmis Nelson Siegel (ENS) ve cesitli duzgunlestirme ceza (smooth penalty) fonksiyonlari ile uygulanan kubik B-spline (VRP), en populer getiri egrisi hesaplama yontemlerindendir. Bu notta, Turkiye Hazine tahvilleri icin duzgunlestirme cezasi ile beraber uygulanan Kubik B-spline yontemi tahmin edilmekte ve sonuclar Genisletilmis Nelson-Siegel yontemi ile kiyaslanmaktadir. Iki yontem altinda da elde edilen cesitli vadelerdeki getiriler birbirine oldukca yakin seviyededir. Orneklem ici karsilastirma yapildiginda, VRP yonteminin ENS’ye gore ozellikle uzun vadeli getirilerde daha iyi sonuclar verdigi bulunmustur. Orneklem disinda ise, iki yontemin de birbirine oldukca yakin sonuclar verdigi gozlenmistir. Ancak, VRP yontemi getiri egrisinin kisa ucunda, ENS yontemi ise getiri egrisinin uzun ucunda daha iyi orneklem disi tahmin saglamaktadir. |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1711&r=cwa |
| By: | Cevriye Aysoy; Turknur Brand |
| Abstract: | [EN] This note discusses the responding behaviour of Business Tendency Survey (BTS) participants to the question of general economic situation. The general tendency of perception and attitude change due to economic situation is measured by this question via a three-level Likert scale of “more optimistic; unchanged; more pessimistic” on a monthly basis. The high percentages of middle alternative responses over time draw our attention to look into this topic in more detail from a cognitive point of view. In this study, by implementing an ad hoc interpolation method, how different the balance calculated would be under certain assumptions is studied. The method, for testing purposes, not for data editing, studies firms’ behaviour in choosing the middle category response. The possible different interpretations of this response category do not cause any substantial changes on our interpretation of the economic tendencies. While “unchanged” response keeps its information content, relative increase in this response can be a signal for uncertain periods in economy. [TR] Bu notta, Iktisadi Yonelim Anketi katilimci firmalarinin genel gidisat sorusunu cevaplama davranisi tartisilmaktadir. Genel gidisata iliskin algi ve beklentiler, aylik olarak “daha iyimser; ayni; daha kotumser” seceneklerinden olusan uclu Likert olcekli soru ile derlenmektedir. Seceneklerden “ayni” cevaplarinin zaman icerisinde hep yuksek oranda olmasi, bu konuya daha detayli calismak icin ilgi uyandirmistir. Literaturde notr cevap kategorisinin ne sekillerde yorumlanabilecegi tartisilmaktadir. Bu calismada, gerekli varsayimlarla deneysel bir interpolasyon metodu uygulandiktan sonra hesaplanan denge degerinin ne kadar farkli olduguna bakilmistir. Test amacli olup veri yenilemek icin olmayan bu metot, firmalarin “ayni” cevap kategorisini nasil degerlendirebildigi uzerine yogunlasmistir. Olasi farkli degerlendirmeler, beklentileri yorumlama seklimizde kritik degisiklikler yaratmamaktadir. “Ayni” secenegi kendi bilgi icerigini korumakla birlikte bu secenekteki goreceli artis ekonomide belirsiz zamanlarin habercisi olabilir. |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1705&r=cwa |