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on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Cemal Eren Arbatli; Gunes Gokmen |
| Abstract: | We study the long-term economic legacy of highly-skilled minorities a century after their wholesale expulsion. Using mass expulsions of Armenian and Greek communities of the Ottoman Empire in the early 20th century as a unique natural experiment of history, we show that districts with greater presence of Armenian and Greek minorities at the end of the 19th century are systematically more densely populated, more urbanized, and more developed today. Results are robust to accounting for an extensive set of geographical and historical factors of development and minority settlement patterns. Matching type estimators, instrumental variable regressions, and a sub-province level case study corroborate our findings. Importantly, we provide evidence on the channels of persistence. Armenian and Greek contribution to long-run development is largely mediated by their legacy on local human capital accumulation. In comparison, the mediating effect of minority asset transfer on development appears less important. |
| Keywords: | human capital, economic development, expulsion, minorities, ethnicity, Armenians, Greeks, persistence |
| JEL: | O10 O43 P48 N40 Z12 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_6268&r=cwa |
| By: | Muhammad Asali (International School of Economics at Tbilisi State University, Tbilisi;); Norberto Pignatti (International School of Economics at Tbilisi State University, Tbilisi; IZA, Bonn); Sophiko Skhirtladze (ISET Policy Institute) |
| Abstract: | We provide experimental evidence about ethnic discrimination in the labor market in Georgia. We randomly assign Georgian and non-Georgian, male and female, names to similar resumes and apply for jobs as advertised in help-wanted web sites in Georgia. We find that gender has no effect on the probability of callback, but a job applicant who is ethnic Georgian is twice more likely to be called for a job interview than an equally skilled ethnic non-Georgian (Azeri or Armenian). The almost 100% gap in callbacks is statistically significant and cannot be abridged by having more experience or education. Both taste-based discrimination and statistical discrimination models are consistent with the evidence provided in this study. Labor market discrimination tends to aggravate in economic busts. |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tbs:wpaper:17-004&r=cwa |
| By: | Stephen D. Younger (CEQ Institute); Artsvi Khachatryan |
| Abstract: | We use methods developed by the Commitment to Equity Institute and data from the 2011 Integrated Living Conditions Survey (ILCS) to assess the effects of government taxation and social spending on poverty and inequality in Armenia. We find that Armenia achieves considerable redistribution despite a relatively small budget. More than half of this redistribution is due to old-age pensions. Results for poverty reduction are less encouraging. At a poverty line of US$2.50 per day, which is similar to Armenia’s national poverty line, the fisc lowers the headcount by 0.084, but at the US$4.00 poverty line, the fisc actually increases the headcount slightly (0.019). Even though transfers are reasonably well-targeted in Armenia, taxes, especially indirect taxes, do fall on poorer households, thus offsetting the poverty-reducing effect of public expenditures. Expenditure targeting in Armenia is very good. Expenditures that are supposed to help the poor and vulnerable go disproportionately to the poor, as they should. At the same time, expenditures on services that should be universal – education and health care – are spread fairly evenly across the population, as they should be. Given already good targeting, Armenia’s only option for greater redistribution is larger budgets for the besttargeted expenditures such as the Family Benefit. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal incidence, social spending, inequality, poverty, Armenia |
| JEL: | H22 H5 D31 I3 |
| Date: | 2017–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tul:ceqwps:43&r=cwa |
| By: | Salome Gelashvili (International School of Economics at Tbilisi State University, Tbilisi); Phatima Mamardashvili (International School of Economics at Tbilisi State University, Tbilisi) |
| Abstract: | Food price volatility is an important determinant of access to food. Given Georgia’s low selfsufficiency ratio (34%) and its dependence on international markets, Georgia has few mechanisms to control food price volatility, particularly when it is driven by international market conditions. The goal of this paper is to measure the price volatility of wheat, potato and maize flour in Georgia, and define major drivers of volatility through a time series analysis of retail prices of those three food products, which account for a significant share of households’ spending on food. Results of the analysis are expected to contribute to Georgia’s policy on food security, as well as agricultural policy in general. |
| Keywords: | Price volatility, time series analysis |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tbs:wpaper:17-007&r=cwa |
| By: | Cesar Cancho (Poverty & Equity Global Practice at the World Bank); Elena Bondarenko (Macroeconomics & Fiscal Management Global Practice at the World Bank) |
| Abstract: | This paper uses the 2013 Integrated Household Survey, collected by the Central Statistical Agency of Georgia (GeoStat), and data concerning government revenues and expenditures collected by the Ministry of Finance (MoF) along with other administrative agencies, and applies the CEQ methodology to analyze the progressivity of Georgia’s tax and transfer systems. The effects of a variety of policies are individually described, including personal income tax (PIT), value added tax (VAT) and excise tax. In addition, this paper assesses direct and in-kind transfers made by the Georgian government. The distributional effect of indirect subsidies, which are confined to the capital city, Tbilisi, are also considered, as well as the Agricultural Card program. The results show a stark difference between direct and indirect taxation. Direct taxes are progressive, and income tax is largely borne by high-income deciles. Meanwhile, the burden of indirect taxation is more evenly distributed, with the poor losing a higher percentage of income. Thus, the tax system is regressive. Overall, fiscal policy is progressive and equalizing, even before in-kind transfers for early education, and the Medical Insurance for the Poor (MIP), and Universal Health Care (UHC) programs are taken into account. The Targeted Social Assistance Program (TSA) and old-age pensions play a significantly pro-poor role. Fiscal incidence reduces poverty (under $2.50 USD’s per day) over 9 percentage points, the largest drop in poverty amongst the countries where CEQ analysis was performed. This paper concludes that excise taxes should be reassigned or eliminated to reduce regressivity, while PIT and the property tax could be broadened, which would expand the tax base. |
| Keywords: | fiscal incidence, taxation, social spending, inequality, poverty, Georgia |
| JEL: | H22 D31 I38 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tul:ceqwps:42&r=cwa |
| By: | Zurab Abramishvili (International School of Economics at Tbilisi State University, Tbilisi) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates how a unique education policy positively affected university enrollment rates of public school students in Georgia. In 2007, the Georgian government enacted legislation mandating the replacement of all public school principals under the assumption that the replacement of the principals with randomly assigning qualified candidates to public schools would fairly decentralize and improve school governance across Georgia. About half of public school principals were actually replaced with new candidates and a majority of them were assigned through a random allocation mechanism. Therefore, the standard difference-indifferences methodology is used to compare treated public schools with private schools that are not affected by the policy in order to identify how this reform impacted education outcomes. Using the National Assessment and Examination Center university admissions data, the public schools with replaced principals increased university enrollment more than the control schools by an average of 4%. The largest part of this increase comes from schools with randomly assigned principals. The positive findings herein could tenably impact education policy in developing (and perhaps developed) countries and elicits further research where applicable. The statistically significant and strong effects of this type of reform could cause a positive domino effect in the developing world, especially in countries with similar characteristics and predicaments in their education system. |
| Keywords: | School principals, university enrollment rate, education reform, random assignment |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tbs:wpaper:17-006&r=cwa |
| By: | Muhammad Farooq Arby (State Bank of Pakistan); Amjad Ali (State Bank of Pakistan) |
| Abstract: | Inflation is usually considered to have a non-linear relationship with economic growth: a positive relationship when it is low and stable, and negative when it is high and volatile. It is therefore an important research question: what is that threshold level of inflation beyond which it affects growth negatively? This paper addresses this question in case of Pakistan. We have used two models: one a quadratic model and the other a regression kink model, with unknown threshold. We find the threshold inflation at 6.05 percent and 5.67 percent respectively (on the basis of annual data from 1976 to 2017). |
| Keywords: | Inflation, threshold effects, Economic growth |
| JEL: | E31 E22 O40 O47 |
| Date: | 2017–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sbp:wpaper:94&r=cwa |