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on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Luis A. Gil-Alana (Faculty of Economics and ICS, University of Navarra, Pamplona, Spain); Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir (Department of Economics, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey and Economic Research Forum (ERF), Cairo, Egypt); Aysit Tansel (Department of Economics, Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey and Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA), Bonn, Germany and Economic Research Forum (ERF), Cairo, Egypt) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we have examined the unemployment rate series in Turkey by using long memory models and in particular employing fractionally integrated techniques. Our results suggest that unemployment in Turkey is highly persistent, with orders of integration equal to or higher than 1 in most cases. This implies lack of mean reversion and permanence of the shocks. We found evidence in favor of mean reversion in the case of female unemployment and this happens for all the groups of non-agricultural, rural, urban and youth unemployment series. The possibility of non-linearities are observed only in the case of female unemployment and the degree of persistence is higher in the cases of female and youth unemployment series. Important policy implications emerge from our empirical results. Labor and macroeconomic policies will most likely have long lasting effects on the unemployment rates. |
| Keywords: | Unemployment, hysteresis, NAIRU, fractional integration, Turkey |
| JEL: | C22 E24 |
| Date: | 2017–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:met:wpaper:1709&r=cwa |
| By: | Antonio Di Paolo (Department of Econometrics, University of Barcelona, Av. Diagonal 696; 08034 Barcelona,Spain.); Aysit Tansel (Department of Economics Middle East, Technical University, 06800 Ankara,Turkey.) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the drivers of wage differences among college graduates who hold a degree in a different field of study. We focus on Turkey, an emerging country that is characterized by a sustained expansion of higher education. We estimate conditional wage gaps by field of study using OLS regressions. Average differentials are subsequently decomposed into the contribution of observable characteristics (endowment) and unobservable characteristics (returns). To shed light on distributional wage disparities by field of study, we provide estimates along the unconditional wage distribution by means of RIF-Regressions. Finally, we also decompose the contribution of explained and unexplained factors in accounting for wage gaps along the whole distribution. As such, this is the first work providing evidence on distributional wage differences by college major for a developing country. The results indicate the existence of important wage differences by field of study, which are partly accounted by differences in observable characteristics (especially occupation and, to a lesser extent, employment sector). These pay gaps are also heterogeneous over the unconditional distribution of wages, as is the share of wage differentials that can be attributed to differences in observable characteristics across workers with degrees in different fields of study. |
| Keywords: | Fields of Study, Wage Differentials, Decomposition, Unconditional Wage Distribution, Turkey. JEL classification: J31, J24, I23, I26. |
| Date: | 2017–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ira:wpaper:201716&r=cwa |
| By: | Sbaouelgi, Jihène |
| Abstract: | In this paper we will focus on education. Indeed, most theoretical analyzes have confirmed that human capital has a positive and significant effect on growth. The paper aims to examine in time series the causality between human capital and growth in MENA’s region. For this, we carry out our empirical investigation by employing various human capital measures suggested in the literature. The results show that cointegration between education and economic growth exists only in Tunisia, Turkey, Morocco, Iran and Israel. However, in the other countries the causality does not exist because they don’t have effective means to improve their growth. |
| Keywords: | education; economic growth; causality and cointegration |
| JEL: | O3 O4 |
| Date: | 2017–09–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:81578&r=cwa |
| By: | Pişkin, Erhan |
| Abstract: | The standard theory of international trade almost implies that trade patterns are highly static and persistent. Therefore, the issue of trade duration is generally ignored in these standard trade models. The literature on trade duration has been popular since the seminal works by Besedes and Prusa (2006a-b). These papers reveal that trade relationships are often very short-lived contrary to previously thoughts. In line with this unexpected result, this study provides a thorough statistical description and regression analysis of the duration of Turkish exports. The aim of this study two-fold. Firstly, it attempts to identify the duration of Turkish exports by performing a highly detailed analysis of descriptive statistics and the Kaplan-Meier method. Secondly, this study explores the factors that affect on the hazard rates of export flows. To this end, two different regression analysis are performed by using Cox proportional hazard model and discrete-time Probit, Logit and Cloglog hazard models. The detailed trade data reported by CEPII-BACI are employed to investigate Turkey's export to 245 partners from 1998 to 2013 according to the 6-digit Harmonized system. Results obtained from the analysis of descriptive statistics suggest that the duration of Turkish exports is very short-lived. The median and mean duration of Turkish exports are merely one year and 3,41, respectively. 51% of all trade spells, however, cease during the first year. The Kaplan-Meier estimates of survival functions show that all survival curves are downward sloping with decreasing rate and about 42% of export relationships is likely to fail in the first year. The results of regression analysis indicate that discrete-time Logit hazard model is more suitable hazard model for estimation. Empirical evidences of discrete-time Logit hazard model demonstrate that common language, common border, importer GDP, relative real exchange rate, initial export value, lagged duration, total export value, number of export products and number of export markets variables have a strong negative impact on the hazard rates of export flows. Whereas distance, difference in GDP per capita and EU-27 variables have a positive effect on the hazard rates of export flows. |
| Keywords: | Survival Analysis, Trade Duration, Kaplan-Meier Survival Analysis, Continuous-time Hazard Models, Discrete-time Hazard Models |
| JEL: | F1 F14 |
| Date: | 2017–08–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:81459&r=cwa |