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on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Altindag, Onur (National Bureau of Economic Research); Kaushal, Neeraj (Columbia University) |
| Abstract: | We study the effect of an influx of approximately three million Syrian refugees on voting behavior in Turkey. The analysis is based on data from three recent general elections, 54 waves of a monthly survey on voter preferences as well as a unique field survey that directly measures voter attitude towards refugees. We exploit the substantial variation in the inflow of refugees, both over time and across provinces, and use a difference-in-differences approach, comparing the political outcomes in geographic areas with high and low intensity of refugee presence before and after the beginning of Syrian civil war. To address the endogeneity in refugees' location choices, we adopt an instrumental variables approach that relies on the historic dispersion of Arabic speakers across Turkish provinces, taking advantage of the fact that Syrians are more likely to settle in locations where the host population speaks Arabic. Empirical analyses of survey data documents strong polarization in attitudes towards refugees between the supporters and opponents of the ruling Justice and Development party (AKP). Regression analyses of political preferences, however, suggest that the massive inflow of refugees induced a modest and statistically significant drop in support for the ruling AKP. Leavers did not swing to the other major political parties but were more likely to become indecisive or absentee. We show similarly small, but statistically insignificant impact on actual election outcomes during the study period. Based on other questions in the survey data, we interpret our findings as suggestive that while partisanship is highly correlated with public opinion towards refugees, exposure to refugee has little impact on electoral outcomes. |
| Keywords: | Syrian refugees, voting behavior in Turkey, attitudes towards refugees |
| JEL: | F22 |
| Date: | 2017–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10849&r=cwa |
| By: | Şen, Hüseyin; Kaya, Ayşe |
| Abstract: | Using the augmented version of the Blanchard - Perotti’s SVAR technique, this paper seeks to empirically estimate the size of fiscal multipliers in Turkey over the period 2002:q3-2016:q2. In contrast to many previous papers that concentrate on fiscal policy instruments -taxes and government spending- at the aggregate level, in the paper we consider these instruments at the sub-component level. We examine output responses to discretionary changes in five fiscal variables (value-added tax, special consumption tax, personal income tax, real government spending, and transfer payments), and then we estimate the size of fiscal multipliers for taxes and government spending. Overall, our empirical findings indicate that the size of multipliers for taxes is different from that of government spending. Depending on the sub-components, the size of the multiplier ranges from -0.83 to -0.27 for taxes, and from 0.02 to 0.98 for government spending respectively. Overall, these findings corroborate the idea that a shock to government spending creates a (weak) Keynesian effect on GDP in the short run, while a shock to taxes brings about a non-Keynesian effect. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal Multipliers,Fiscal Policy,SVAR,Turkey |
| JEL: | E6 E62 H2 H30 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:162763&r=cwa |
| By: | Arveladze, G.; Smeets, Maarten |
| Abstract: | The process leading to WTO accession is complex, requires solid domestic coordination mechanisms in the acceding country, a rethinking of its economic and trade policies and significant domestic structural reforms. It often implies the creation of new institutions designed to coordinate and implement the policies at the national level, as was the case in Georgia. The analysis offered in this working paper addresses some of the challenges that Georgia faced during its WTO accession and the many economic reforms that were undertaken after it became a full member of the WTO in 2000. Today, Georgia has one of the most liberal trade regimes and largely benefits from the new trade opportunities that WTO accession has offered. Even though Georgia has been a WTO member for long, it continues its domestic economic reforms in order to further strengthen its international competitiveness for goods and services. This working paper discusses the various measures taken by Georgia and how it uses and implements some of the main WTO provisions to that effect. This includes the ratification of the TFA by Georgia as part of its commitment to reduce transaction costs, enhance efficiency and reduce lengthy and costly administrative processes at the border. Trade capacity building at the technical level has also contributed to human and institutional capacity building in Georgia and developing a better understanding of the rights and obligations of WTO membership thus facilitating Georgia's fuller integration into the multilateral trading system. |
| Keywords: | trade policy,negotiations,structural adjustment,post-accession,policy coherence |
| JEL: | F13 F15 F53 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wtowps:ersd201710&r=cwa |
| By: | John R. Bowen |
| Abstract: | This paper considers arguments about Islam and women’s welfare, and, at greater length, how legal systems with Islamic elements treat women, with a focus on how women fare in Islamic family courts. Key methodological issues include how to focus on real-world views and practices rather than only texts, disentangle the effects of patriarchal regional cultures from the effects of Islamic law, and compare the gendered effects of Islamic court practices with the most probable local alternatives. We look in greater detail at three countries—Tunisia, Indonesia, and Iran—to detect probable mechanisms shaping women’s access to divorce and to property. |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp2017-152&r=cwa |
| By: | Heidari, Hassan; Babaei Balderlou, Saharnaz; Ebrahimi Torki, Mahyar |
| Abstract: | In this research, the DCC model is estimated to calculate dynamic correlation series between crude oil price and growth of Industry and Mine sector during 1367:1-1392:4. Then, Macroeconomic variables which can explain the dynamic correlation are analyzed as variables of contagion. So, the import, as an effective and affected variable from crude oil price, is separated to real import of consumption, capital and intermediate goods. We apply an MSIXH (2)-ARX (0,0) model to investigate the effects of explaining variables. Our results show that imports of intermediate goods have a positive effect and imports of consumption goods have a negative effect on correlation series. These results suggest that in order to increase Industry and Mine sector growth, increase in import of intermediate goods, reduction in government consumption expenditure and implementing policies to stabilize the general price level and government consumption expenditure against changes in oil prices are necessary. |
| Keywords: | Crude Oil Price, Industry and Mine Sector Growth, Imports of Consumption Goods, Imports of Intermediate Goods, Imports of Capital Goods, DCC-MGARCH, Markov Switching Model. |
| JEL: | C32 C34 O13 O41 |
| Date: | 2016–11–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79236&r=cwa |