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on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Ramiz Rahmanov (Central Bank of Azerbaijan Republic) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the economic effects of permanent and temporary oil price shocks in three oil exporting countries (Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Russia) using the five variable (real short-term interest rate, real effective exchange rate, real budget expenditure, real imports, and real tradable non-oil production) VARX model with two exogenous variables which represent the corresponding shocks. The impulse response analysis conducted over the quarterly data from 2003:I to 2015:IV shows that in Azerbaijan, a permanent oil price shock produces a significantly positive effect on all variables but interest rate, while a temporary oil price shock has a significant and positive effect only on imports and exchange rate. For Kazakhstan, the impulse response functions show that a permanent oil price shock significantly and positively affects interest rate, imports, and budget expenditure; a temporary oil price shock has a significantly positive influence on all variables except budget expenditure. In Russia, a permanent oil price shock produces a significantly positive effect on all variables; a temporary oil price shock exerts a significantly positive effect on all variables but interest rate. Contrary to the permanent income hypothesis, the budget expenditure in Russia responds both to the permanent and temporary oil price shocks. Such divergence from the hypothesis can be explained by the specifics of the policy on the oil revenue spending. As regards the presence of the symptoms of the Dutch disease, the results indicate only on one symptom. Thus oil price shocks ultimately lead to appreciation of national currencies but not to a decline in tradable non-oil production. |
| Keywords: | permanent oil price shock, temporary oil price shock, macroeconomic policy, non-oil economy, Permanent income hypothesis, Dutch disease, VARX, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Russia |
| JEL: | C54 E32 E37 E63 Q32 |
| Date: | 2016–12–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aze:wpaper:1609&r=cwa |
| By: | Kaya, Ezgi (Cardiff Business School) |
| Abstract: | Recent studies from different countries suggest that the gender gap is not constant across the wage distribution and the average wage gap provides limited information on women’s relative position in the labour market. Using micro level data from official statistics, this study explores the gender wage-gap in Turkey across the wage distribution. The quantile regression and counterfactual decomposition analysis results reveal three striking features of the Turkish labour market. The first is that the gender wage gap is more pronounced at the upper tail of the wage distribution, implying the existence of a glass ceiling effect for women in the Turkish labour market. The second is that, the glass ceiling effect in Turkey is not observed in the raw gender wage gap and only revealed after controlling for workers’ labour market qualifications implying that women are better qualified and better educated than their male counterparts’ at the upper tail of the wage distribution. The third finding is that despite the narrowing effect of the women’s relative labour market qualifications, the glass ceiling effect in the Turkish labour market exists due to unequal treatment of men and women and the increasing labour market discrimination toward women as we move up the wage distribution. |
| Keywords: | Gender wage gap, quantile regression, decomposition |
| JEL: | C21 J31 J71 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2017/5&r=cwa |
| By: | Sedalishchev, Vladimir (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Chokaev, Bekhan (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Knobel, Alexander (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | The work is devoted to assessment of the economic consequences of the integration policy on removing non-tariff barriers declared in the agreement on the EAEU using the methodology of numerical quantification using the computable general equilibrium (CGE). The general equilibrium model and the complex database for its estimation are constructed. A quantitative assessment of the impact of various scenarios of the EAEU integration on the economies of Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Armenia is given. |
| Keywords: | ÅÀÝÑ, íåòàðèôíûå áàðüåðû, ýôôåêòû èíòåãðàöèè, ìîäåëü îáùåãî ðàâíîâåñèÿ |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:051705&r=cwa |
| By: | Vugar Rahimov (Central Bank of Azerbaijan Republic); Shaig Adigozalov (Central Bank of Azerbaijan Republic); Fuad Mammadov (Central Bank of Azerbaijan Republic) |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses the main determinants of inflation in Azerbaijan during 2003-2015 years. Using quarterly data on CPI, trade partner’s CPI, nominal effective exchange rate (NEER), money supply (M2), real non-oil gross domestic product (NGDP) and credits we employ vector auto regression (VAR) analysis in order to conduct our study. Impulse response and variance decomposition analysis suggest that inflation is mostly explained by foreign inflation, fiscal policy, exchange rate and own shocks. Whereas monetary policy and supply shocks do not play any essential role in explaining inflation. Among these variables inflation expectations, foreign inflation and monetary policy (credit variable) have quick effect on domestic headline inflation, whereas the effect of fiscal variable is relatively slower: it takes two quarters to fully reflect on prices. We also find that appreciation of exchange rate has deflationary effect on domestic inflation. |
| Keywords: | consumer price index, inflation, determinants of inflation, historical decomposition, developing country, structural vector autoregression |
| JEL: | E31 E50 |
| Date: | 2016–10–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aze:wpaper:1607&r=cwa |
| By: | Norbert Funke; Asel Isakova; Maksym Ivanyna |
| Abstract: | Using data from the World Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness Report as an example, this paper compares structural indicators for 25 countries in Emerging Europe, the Caucasus, and Central Asia with a generic country with similar charactersitics that is 40 percent richer as well as a country with the average EU income. This comparison suggests that improvements will be particularly crucial in the areas of institutions, financial market development, infrastructure, goods and labor market efficiency and areas related to innovation. For the generally more ambitious goal of reaching average EU income, the reform needs are correspondingly larger. The methodology focuses on (approximate) comparisons between countries and does not try to establish the link between structural reforms and growth. While we test for changes in empirical specifications, caveats relate to the quality of structural indicators, possible non-linearities, and reform complementarities. The approach can be applied to other indicators and at a more granular level. |
| Date: | 2017–03–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:17/82&r=cwa |
| By: | Salman Huseynov (Central Bank of Azerbaijan Republic); Fuad Mammadov (Central Bank of Azerbaijan Republic) |
| Abstract: | In our study, we model both steady state and short-run dynamics of the important aspects of the national economy using quarterly data for the period 1999Q1-2016Q2. We explicitly model government, money market and external sector, but omit household sector, labor market, wage dynamics and volume of the physical capital specifications due to serious data quality issues. Using Fully Modified OLS (FMOLS) co-integration methodology we explore co-integration relations among the variables. Coefficient estimates of short-run dynamics are in compliance with our ex-ante expectations. Stability tests indicate that the system seems to exhibit stability around its steady state values and model variables converges to their steady state values approximately within 140 periods (2016Q3-2050Q4). Impulse-response analysis also show stable convergence of the model and predict economically consistent results. The results of in-sample and out-of-sample simulation exercises for the inflation, the government consumption and the imports are satisfactory. However, it seems that the model cannot adequately capture ex-post dynamics of NFA and reserve money. In general the results indicate that model can be used for the specific policy analysis and forecasting of main macroeconomic variables of Azerbaijan. |
| Keywords: | general equilibrium; co-integration analysis; forecast evaluation |
| JEL: | C32 C51 C52 E17 |
| Date: | 2016–11–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aze:wpaper:1608&r=cwa |
| By: | Firanchuk, Alexander (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | The tasks of this work are: to formulate theoretical hypotheses about the factors influencing the probability of re-export occurrence; the provision of descriptive statistics that may serve as evidence for the existence of such re-exports; and the construction of an econometric model for evaluating the proposed theoretical hypotheses. In addition, we will pay attention to the statistics of trade in Russia, the main changes and the most probable cases of re-export of goods. In the framework of this work, an analysis was made of the effectiveness of the Russian food embargo, introduced in August 2014. Under the effectiveness of sanctions, we understand the extent to which they have limited the supply of goods to Russia that have fallen under the embargo. In the course of the study, a statistical analysis of the COMTRADE trade data was carried out, which resulted in the identification of a number of indirect signs of the re-export to Russia of goods banned by the food embargo. Suspicions for the re-export of sanctioned products in the period 2014-2015 most often fall on the partner countries of Russia in the Eurasian Economic Union - Belarus and Kazakhstan. Also, suspicions of the presence of re-exports can be found in the statistics of trade of Serbia, Macedonia and Turkey. |
| Date: | 2017–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:041705&r=cwa |
| By: | Volovik, Nadezhda (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | Since the formation of the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 1995, customs tariff rates have been constantly decreasing. The agreement of the WTO member countries to continue the GATT course for further reduction and partial cancellation of customs duties was an important result of the Uruguay Round of multilateral trade negotiations regarding tariff liberalization. As a result, the weighted average level of customs duties on manufactured goods declined in all countries. Further tariff liberalization took place due to the growing number of multilateral, regional and bilateral trade agreements. The inability to regulate imports by increasing import duties stimulated the search by virtually all countries of other effective instruments for protecting national markets. As a result, as the general level of customs tariffs was reduced, the protectionist role of non-tariff methods (NTM) for regulating foreign trade increased. |
| Date: | 2017–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:041711&r=cwa |
| By: | Heidari, Hassan; Babaei Balderlou, Saharnaz; Ebrahimi Torki, Mahyar |
| Abstract: | Energy intensity is a measure of the energy efficiency of a nation’s economy. Many factors influence a country’s energy intensity. In this paper, however, we note the effective factors of energy intensity and decompose it by applying Logistic Smooth Transition Regression (LSTR) in Iran during the period 1980- 2013. The main factors are the ratio of the added value of services to GDP (explaining both linear and nonlinear part of the energy intensity), the percentage of internet users, income per capita and Human Development Index (explaining nonlinear part of the energy intensity). The results indicated that the lifestyle and structural changes had a significant and considerable effect on decreasing energy intensity and that the ratio of services value-added to GDP as a transition variable caused an asymmetric behavior of energy intensity affected from explanatory variables. The most effective factor on energy intensity was Human Development Index |
| Keywords: | Energy Intensity, Energy Efficiency, LSTR Model, Iran |
| JEL: | C22 Q43 |
| Date: | 2016–09–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79237&r=cwa |
| By: | Diermeier, Matthias |
| Abstract: | International traders' and investors' expectations were raised after Iran had pledged to implement the landmark nuclear deal negotiated with the US, UK, France, Russia and Germany. While the Islamic Republic constitutes a trading hub with great economic potential, large amounts of goods or investment sums have yet to cross its borders. Instead, US-imposed sanctions that should have been lifted months ago de facto remain in place. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwkkur:392016&r=cwa |