|
on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | International Monetary Fund. |
| Abstract: | Georgia is recovering from an adverse external shock (a decline in trading partners’ growth since late 2014), although at a slower pace than previously envisaged. The economy has shown resilience to the external shock, with real GDP growth averaging 2.8 percent in 2015–16, the highest among its main trading partners, except for China and Turkey. The exchange rate was allowed to adjust, and the dollarized banking sector has weathered the significant depreciation vis-Ã -vis the dollar. With depreciation of major trading partner currencies, external competitiveness has not improved, however. Hence, external imbalances remain elevated and reserves below adequate levels. Following the October 2016 parliamentary elections that gave the ruling party a constitutional majority, the new government has united around a policy agenda centered on bolstering growth. |
| Keywords: | Georgia;Middle East; |
| Date: | 2017–04–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:17/97&r=cwa |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Kazakhstan continues to withstand challenges from lower oil prices and slower growth in Russia, China, and Europe. While buffers are strong, the shocks exposed vulnerabilities, including dependence on oil and other commodities; gaps in public administration, the business environment, and competitiveness; and long-standing banking weaknesses. The authorities’ response—targeted fiscal support, exchange rate (ER) adjustment, enhanced monetary policy management, and structural reforms focusing on the business climate and the public sector—has stabilized conditions. Growth in 2016 was positive, and a pickup is expected in 2017. Medium-term prospects are subdued, due to continued lower oil prices and conditions in key trading partners. Growth is projected to reach 2.5 percent in 2017 and non-oil growth should reach 4 percent by 2021. This will reflect the implementation of announced reforms, unlocking of bank lending, and a further increase in oil production. Uncertainty is high, given exposure to commodity price developments. |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:17/108&r=cwa |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Selected Issues |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:17/109&r=cwa |
| By: | International Monetary Fund. |
| Abstract: | The National Bank of Georgia (NBG) has embarked on an ambitious project to strengthen monetary policy implementation so that its actions in normal times are seen by the market as being both credible and predictable. As part of this work, the NBG is putting in place arrangements to provide comfort to the market that it stands ready to respond to systemic events, while being conscious of the need to structure its operations in a way so that the system’s ability to self-ensure is not undermined. It is clear that a great deal of thought and preparation has gone into this work, and also in explaining to the market the reasons for its monetary policy actions. |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:17/107&r=cwa |
| By: | Musharraf Cyan (Department of Economics, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University); Michael Price (Department of Economics, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University); Mark Rider (Department of Economics, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University) |
| Abstract: | Urban areas require continuing investments not only to account for depreciation of infrastructure investments but to maintain infrastructure capacity to keep up with growth in population and in economic activity. Urban renewal often refers to investments in infrastructure in urban areas due to blight and decay. In post-conflict and post-crisis countries, urban renewal investments are required to repair infrastructure that has been damaged by conflict and to catchup with infrastructure investments that have been postponed by the crisis (conflict) period. In addition, maintaining the vitality of urban areas is important to sustaining economic growth, not only in the urban area itself but also in the hinterland. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the Peshawar Uplift Program. Peshawar city has been under extreme stress because of the law and order situation. New investments are not forthcoming from the private sector, and many affluent Peshawarites have left the city. Therefore, the Government of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (GoKP) is making infrastructure investments to make the provincial capital Peshawar more environmentally friendly, people centered, and aesthetically pleasing. The purpose of these investments is to restore citizen trust, to attract residents who had moved away during the crisis period, and to attract private investment. This evaluation focuses on investments to improve the Grand Trunk Road, which is a major thoroughfare running through Peshawar. The evaluation consists of asking a random sample of individuals to answer a questionnaire that includes a number of statements about the effect of the GoKP’s investments on the appearance, traffic flow, and safety of the Grand Trunk Road. Respondents are asked to indicate on a 10 point scale whether they strongly disagree (1) to strongly agree (10) with a given statement about the investments in the Grand Trunk Road. The sample consists of 1,028 respondents randomly drawn from 33 neighborhoods in the vicinity of the Grand Trunk Road. Since we were not able to take baseline measurements before the start of the Peshawar Uplift Program, we use a pair of statements about the governance system and infrastructure investments as benchmarks. Based on the analysis of the survey responses, we do not find strong evidence that respondents believe that the investments have improved the appearance, traffic flow, or safety of the Grand Trunk Road. In fact, individuals who report using the Grand Trunk Road most frequently (more than 10 times per week) are more likely to disagree with statements intended to measure satisfaction with these investments. There are several ways to interpret the results of the survey. First, people may not be aware that these investments were made by the GoKP. Second, a public information campaign describing the investments may have increased public awareness and satisfaction with the investments. In other words, the public information campaign may have created expectations that have not been delivered at the time of this writing. A major limitation of this evaluation is the lack of baseline measurements before the implementation of the Peshawar Uplift Program. The remainder of the report is organized as follows. The next section is a review of the literature on urban renewal. We find that there is an extensive literature on the impact of urban renewal in developed countries and developing countries alike. However, there is little evidence on the effect of urban renewal on citizens’ reported satisfaction of the type described in this report. Then, we describe the sample and questionnaire. Section 4 describes the results of the analysis of the survey responses. |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ays:ispwps:paper1709&r=cwa |
| By: | Guney, Ibrahim Ethem (Central Bank of Turkey); Hacihasanoglu, Yavuz Selim (Central Bank of Turkey); Tumen, Semih (Central Bank of Turkey) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the impact of a substantial minimum wage increase, which became effective in January 2016, on consumer loans in Turkey. Using bank-level data and designing an original identification strategy, we ask whether the loans provided by banks with a historically high share of low-wage loan customers have increased relative to those provided by banks with a historically low share of low-wage loan customers after January 2016. Our results suggest that consumer loan flows have displayed a limited but statistically and economically meaningful increase following the minimum wage hike. This increase mostly comes from the increase in long-term general-purpose loans. Vehicle loans have also increased, while there is no change in housing loans. In the overall, the minimum wage hike has generated a moderate and transitory increase in the flow of consumer loans extended to low-wage earners in Turkey – perhaps due to delayed consumption effect. Consumption of durables, which can further increase household borrowing capacity through collateralized debt channel, has only slightly and temporarily increased. The underlying long-term trends in the stock of consumer loans have hardly changed. |
| Keywords: | consumer loans, labor income shocks, minimum wages, triple difference |
| JEL: | D14 E24 G21 J31 |
| Date: | 2017–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10751&r=cwa |