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on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Wong, Pui-Hang (UNU-MERIT, and Maastricht University) |
| Abstract: | Despite its uncertain effects on political violence, foreign aid is still used as a means to counter insurgency. Recent examples include the US Commander's Emergency Response Program (CERP) in Iraq and Afghanistan. This paper describes how local political dynamics can complicate the causal effect of development assistance on insurgent attacks and estimates the effect of small development projects on attacks targeting foreign donors. Dynamic panel data analysis shows that development assistance induced more attacks against the Coalition forces than reduced them. To further uncover the causal mechanism behind the relationship, I also examine three prominent explanations in the literature. The analysis reveals that the level of violence increased neither because insurgency became a more attractive option than legal economic activities (the opportunity costs explanation) nor because the insurgents tried to sabotage the development projects to pre-empt the hearts and minds effect (the pre-emption explanation). Furthermore, although the third, enrichment explanation agrees with the case, my analysis reveals that Iraqi insurgents did become stronger not only by looting, as most studies suggest. The level of violence in Iraq increased because project contractors needed to pay local leaders and insurgents to get access and buy security. While the US military buys down violence against them, discontented leaders contract violence out to third-party, most likely foreign fighters, to initiate attacks against the Coalition forces on behalf of them. In this light, future counterinsurgency efforts need to mind the ties between aid recipients and other actors, provide better security to contractors, or try to allocate aid more strategically. |
| Keywords: | Development aid, counterinsurgency, dynamic panel data model, Iraq |
| JEL: | D74 F50 O11 O53 |
| Date: | 2017–02–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2017006&r=cwa |
| By: | ARMAN MAZHIKEYEV; Huw Edwards |
| Abstract: | A period of new Eurasian Regional Integration has already begun in parts of the For- mer Soviet Union. Following the experience of European Union, the `troika' (namely, Kaza- khstan, Russia and Belarus) are working toward establishment of a Eurasian Union. The troika have taken serious steps, in a speedy manner, toward the formation of an Eurasian region (the Eurasian Customs Union, the CIS Free Trade Agreement, and the Single Eco- nomic Space, and the Eurasian Economic Union). However, whether all the members and the entire region will achieve the gains from fast EU like integration and the union will be marked as successful one is yet being questioned. Studies believe that the union has more of a political rather than an economic motivation, that could result in negative economic externalities rather then gains.This study attempt to assess the impact of asymmetry and symmetry in bargaining in deeper Eurasian regional integration. The analysis carried out using the modern multi- country multi-sector CGE approach with suitable specications with a number of trade costs measures using the gravity concept. The novelty in this study is the use of implicit trade costs obtained using Overall Trade Cost Index (Novy [69]) which then has been decomposed into policy (tari and non-tari), non-policy (markups and value added costs) and transport costs econometrically. We rstly performed shallow integration scenario simulation with actual changes in tari rates from 2009 to (expected rates for) 2015 of the troika, rest of CIS and aggregate ROW multilaterally. Further we used Overall Trade Cost Indices for EU and CIS countries from the WB-ESCAP trade costs database to make assumptions regarding multilateral changes in NTBs, border, transport and other costs in two deeper integration scenarios of equal and unequal (bias toward Russia) treatment of members.Based on the results of simulation work, we can conclude that if there will be equal treatment of members of the new integration, the members will likely benet from the gains and positive externalities of deeper integration in the future. However, if we take account of the Russian bargaining power and future asymmetric treatment of members, smaller members Kazakhstan, Belarus, plus other joiners are less likely receive expected gains. This work does not take account of other changes in policies (Russia's WTO assessment, sanctions against Russia by the Western Bloc, impact of situations in Ukraine-Russian borders etc.) but changes in trade costs (NTBs, taris, transport and border costs and value added costs). |
| Keywords: | UK, Modeling: new developments, General equilibrium modeling |
| Date: | 2015–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:008007:8365&r=cwa |
| By: | Evren Ceritoglu |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the role of age and cohort effects on home-ownership and housing wealth in Turkey. We utilize twelve consecutive waves of the Turkish Statistical Institute (TURKSTAT) Household Budget Surveys (HBS) from 2003 to 2014. We construct a pseudo-panel data set following Deaton (1985) using birth-year cohorts in which families are grouped into cohorts with respect to the birth year of their household heads. Empirical analysis shows that young cohorts are less likely to own their homes, but they are more likely to be in housing debt. Moreover, they are willing to invest in second homes as much as old cohorts. We estimate a Heckman two-step selection model to distinguish the contribution of quality growth on house prices, while the selection criterion is home-ownership. We regress weighted average of the natural logarithm of cohort home values on age and cohort dummy variables. We find that cohort effects on home values are significantly larger for young cohorts even after controlling for age effects and quality growth. |
| Keywords: | Home-ownership, Housing wealth, Cohort effects, Pseudo-panel |
| JEL: | C23 D12 R21 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1706&r=cwa |
| By: | Armagan Tuna Aktuna-Gunes (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics); Okay Gunes (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we specify and estimate the “domestic production scarcity of time use” as the time use demand elasticity of commodity use in domestic activity. We integrate domestic production technology as the good intensity of time use into scarcity in time use and monetary expenditure which enables us to better differentiate for which consumption groups households have a more complementary than substitutable nature with regards to domestic production. We match the Time Use Survey for 2006 with the Household Budget Survey for the years between 2007 and 2013 (inclusive) by using a new matching method proposed by Rubin (1986). |
| Abstract: | Dans cet article, nous spécifions et estimons la « rareté de l'emploi du temps dans la production domestique » comme l'élasticité de la demande du temps pour des produits utilisés dans l'activité domestique. Nous intégrons la technologie de production domestique, comme l'intensité de produit par le temps utilisé, dans la rareté de temps et les dépenses monétaires qui nous permettent de mieux différencier pour quels groupes de consommation les ménages ont un caractère plus complémentaire que substituable par rapport à leurs productions domestiques. Les inputs monétaires et temporels dans les dépenses de consommation des ménages sont obtenues par l'appariement statistique des enquêtes turques sur l'Emploi du Temps 2006 avec l'enquête sur le Budget des Familles pour les années 2007 et 2013 en utilisant une nouvelle méthode d'appariement proposée par Rubin (1986). |
| Keywords: | Household production technology,Matching statistics,Time use elasticity of substitution,La technologie de production domestique des ménages,l'appariement statistiques,l'élasticité de substitution de l'utilisation du temps |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-01491982&r=cwa |
| By: | Okay Gunes (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Households' consumption patterns are deciphered through estimates of demand elasticities based on the domestic production decisions determined by constraints on time use and monetary budgets for different subpopulations. We first estimate the shadow wage rates of the households and later estimate the full demand elasticities which are computed using full prices proposed by Gardes (2016) derived through the hypotheses of complementarity or substitutability existing between monetary and time expenditures. Detailed results are obtained for the whole population by breaking the dataset into age groups and into households according to poverty level, as determined by the OECD-modified equivalence scale. |
| Abstract: | Les schémas de consommation des ménages sont déchiffrés à partir d'estimations de l'élasticité de la demande en fonction de décisions de production domestique déterminées par les contraintes sur l'utilisation du temps et les budgets monétaires pour les différentes sous-populations. Nous estimons d'abord les taux salariaux fictifs des ménages et ensuite nous estimons les élasticités complètes de la demande qui sont calculées en utilisant l'approche de prix complets proposés par Gardes (2016) dérivés par les hypothèses de complémentarité ou de substituabilité existant entre les dépenses monétaires et temporelles. Des résultats détaillés sont obtenus pour l'ensemble de la population et pour les sous-populations selon les groupes d'âge et le niveau de pauvreté déterminé par l'échelle d'équivalence de l'OCDE. |
| Keywords: | Time allocation,domestic production,full prices,opportunity cost of time,demand elasticities,Rubins' matching statistics,L'allocation du temps,la production domestique,les prix complets,le coût d'opportunité du temps,les élasticités de la demande,l'appariement de Rubin |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-01491970&r=cwa |