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on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Gang, Ira N.; Gatskova, Kseniia; Landon-Lane, John; Yun, Myeong-Su |
| Abstract: | We examine vulnerability to poverty in Tajikistan during the global financial crisis, focusing on the roles played by international migration and remittances, using a formal, practical, and easily decomposable vulnerability measure. Our strategy is to estimate a Markov transition probability matrix with the aim of identifying the vulnerability of households to poverty. Importantly, by introducing the index of vulnerability as the weighted probability of a household falling into poverty over a given time horizon, we can use the estimated dynamics to assess the short, medium and long-run vulnerability. We find that during the “recession transition” almost all households were vulnerable to poverty while almost none were during the “recovery period”. Overall, urban households, more educated households and households receiving remittances from international labor migrants were less vulnerable to poverty. While households with a current or very recent migrant did not have a significantly lower measured vulnerability to poverty, those households receiving remittances from migrants had a lower vulnerability to poverty. Our findings stress that the international labor migration from Tajikistan may not be considered as a reliable means of welfare security for the households because external economic shocks and internal political decisions may negatively affect Russian economy and lead to a reduction of remittances flow to Tajikistan. |
| Keywords: | mobility measurement,vulnerability,poverty,inequality,measurement,Tajikistan |
| JEL: | J60 D63 I32 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:11&r=cwa |
| By: | Jamal Ibrahim Haider (Center for International Development at Harvard University) |
| Abstract: | Do export sanctions cause export deflection? Data on Iranian non-oil exporters between January 2006 and June 2011 shows that two-thirds of these exports were deflected to non-sanctioning countries after sanctions were imposed in 2008, and that at this time aggregate exports actually increased. Exporting firms reduced prices and increased quantities when exporting to a new destination, however, and suffered welfare losses as a result. |
| JEL: | F13 F14 F15 F21 F5 F6 |
| Date: | 2017–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cid:wpfacu:80&r=cwa |
| By: | Tleubayev, Alisher; Bobojonov, Ihtiyor; Götz, Linde; Hockmann, Heinrich; Glauben, Thomas |
| Abstract: | Agriculture plays an important role for Kazakhstan not only because of rural employment, but also because of the diversity it brings to its oil dependent economy. A considerable increase in grain exports was achieved during the recent years, however, there still is a large room for increasing productivity and efficiency to boost the agricultural potential of the country further. The government of Kazakhstan has introduced several policy packages in the past to boost productivity and efficiency, however, the impact of these reforms has not been yet analyzed quantitatively. Micro level data collected from 200 farms in northern Kazakhstan in 2015 is used in the analysis, in order to fill this research gap. A mixture of evidences is found in terms of policy effect on productivity and efficiency. The results of the analysis showed that direct subsidy access reduced the efficiency, while access to supply chain infrastructure had the opposite effect and increased the efficiency. Therefore, the study concludes that the government should divert its policy support from direct subsidy payments to the improvement of agricultural infrastructure. This will influence positively not only productivity and efficiency, but also Kazakhstan's commitments towards international and regional trade agreements. |
| Keywords: | productivity,stochastic frontier approach,wheat production,technical efficiency,Produktivität,Stochastic-Frontier-Ansatz,Getreideproduktion,technische Effizienz |
| JEL: | Q12 Q14 Q18 Q58 P13 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iamodp:160&r=cwa |
| By: | Binnur Balkan; Seyit M|min Cilasun; Belgi Turan (Atilim University) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of the employment subsidy program implemented in 2008 by Turkish government to generate new employment opportunities for women and young men. More precisely, using a nationally representative individual level data, we analyze the impact of the program on social protection of women by checking the transitions in the labor market states. Using difference-in-differences (DID) estimation technique; we assess the effectiveness of the policy by analyzing the switches from informal employment to formal employment, from unemployment to formal employment and from out of the labor force to formal employment. Our results indicate that the reform did not effectively increase the employment probabilities of women compared to men who are not eligible to benefit from the program but formality of women in the labor market increased significantly suggesting an expansion in the social security coverage women in Turkey. |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1022&r=cwa |
| By: | Cem Baslevent (Istanbul Bilgi University and ERF) |
| Abstract: | The main purpose of this project is to carry out descriptive analyses to determine the extent to which social transfers and pension payments have an impact on income inequality and the incidence of poverty in Turkey. Our survey data allows us to carry out this research by identifying the amounts of various types of income received by households. Furthermore, the availability of the amounts of labor income and pension payments at the individual level allows us to distinguish between the incomes of male and female household members, which makes it possible to examine some gendered dimensions of the research question. Thus, the examination of the distributional impact of pension and social assistance programs in Turkey promises to be an interesting exercise that will provide valuable insights for not only for social scientists, but also for politicians and policy makers. Pension payments received by female household members reflect a strong attachment to the labor market in the past. Thus, our findings might also point to the importance of the continued economic activity of women in terms of social justice. Also, by quantifying the contribution of social transfers to inequality, we might produce concrete empirical evidence of whether social policies of the government have had an impact on political outcomes. |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1013&r=cwa |
| By: | Eleftherios Giovanis (University of Verona); Oznur Ozdamar |
| Abstract: | This study explores the determinants and characteristics of the out-of-pocket to capacity to pay and catastrophic health expenditures in Turkey using a detailed micro-level survey, the Household Budget Survey during the period 2002-2011. The results show that those who have public health insurance are less likely to face out-of-pocket to capacity to pay and catastrophic health expenditures, than those with private or without health insurance. In addition, the study explores the expansion of the health reform of 2003, where in 2008 the Green Card (Yesil Kart) holders are entitled, without fee, to the same services as those with public health insurance such as Emekli Sandigi, BAG-KUR, SSK. The analysis employs a differences-in-differences approach using a pseudo-panel based on propensity score matching. The results support that the difference of pocket health expenditures between the public health insurers and green card holders has been reduced. Furthermore, those who are located in rural areas are compared with those residing in urban areas, as the health reform in 2008 included expansion and improvement on the emergency services and infrastructure in rural areas. |
| Date: | 2016–10–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1058&r=cwa |
| By: | Yusuf Soner Baskaya; Julian di Giovanni; Sebnem Kalemli-Özcan; José-Luis Peydró; Mehmet Fatih Ulu |
| Abstract: | We examine the role of the international credit channel in Turkey over 2005-2013. We show that larger, more capitalised banks with higher non-core liabilities increase credit supply when capital inflows are higher. This result is stronger for domestic banks relative to foreign banks and survives during the crisis period of post 2008, when foreign banks in general stop lending in emerging markets and retreat to their home countries. By decomposing capital inflows into bank and non-bank flows, we show the importance of domestic banks' external borrowing for domestic credit growth. |
| Keywords: | Capital Flows, Bank-Lending Channel, Bank Heterogeneity. |
| JEL: | E0 F0 F1 |
| Date: | 2017–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upf:upfgen:1557&r=cwa |
| By: | Aysit Tansel (Middle East Technical University); Deniz Karaoglan |
| Abstract: | This study provides causal effect of education on health behaviors in Turkey which is a middle income developing country. Health Survey of the Turkish Statistical Institute for the years 2008, 2010 and 2012 are used. The health behaviors considered are smoking, alcohol consumption, fruit and vegetable consumption, exercising and one health outcome namely, the body mass index (BMI). We examine the causal effect of education on these health behaviors and the BMI Instrumental variable approach is used in order to address the endogeneity of education to health behaviors. Educational expansion of the early 1960s is used as the source of exogenous variation in years of schooling. Our main findings are as follows. Education does not significantly affect the probability of smoking or exercising. The higher the education level the higher the probability of alcohol consumption and the probability of fruit and vegetable consumption. Higher levels of education lead to higher BMI levels. This study provides a baseline for further research on the various aspects of health behaviors in Turkey. |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1030&r=cwa |
| By: | Ozlem Albayrak; Thomas Masterson |
| Abstract: | This paper presents the quality analysis of the statistical matching conducted for a research study on household consumption behavior, household indebtedness, and inequality for Turkey. The match has been done for four years (2005, 2008, 2009, and 2012) of Household Budget Surveys (HBS) and the Survey for Income and Living Conditions (SILC). The aim of the statistical matching is to transfer household expenditure data from the HBS to the SILC to create synthetic data sets that have information on household consumption expenditures as well as household income and indebtedness. We are following the methodology of constrained statistical matching, using estimated propensity scores developed in Kum and Masterson (2010) to produce the synthetic data sets that we need. The analysis shows that the match is of high quality. |
| Keywords: | Statistical Matching; Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis; Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distribution; Turkey |
| JEL: | C14 D12 D31 |
| Date: | 2017–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_885&r=cwa |
| By: | Oznur Ozdamar (Adnan Menderes University); Eleftherios Giovanis |
| Abstract: | Survivors' benefits are cash payments made by government to family members when a worker dies. His or her spouse and unmarried children are entitled to receive these cash benefits. The payments are intended to help ease the financial strain caused by the loss of the worker's income. Survivors can receive benefits if the deceased partner was employed and contributed to Social Security long enough to be considered insured. Although these benefits aim to help single-head households who are in financial difficulties due to the loss of an additional household income, the remaining parents have generally serious challenges to do work both at labor market and home such as childrearing and house chores. Widows across the world therefore share two common experiences: a loss of social status and reduced economic circumstances. Prior research suggests that widowhood is much more common experience among women than men. Moreover, it is more likely to cause financial difficulties for women than for men, and financial strain reducing well-being of women. Using Cross-Sectional Income and Living Conditions Survey of Turkey (2006-2012), the first aim of this paper is to empirically analyze the effect of survivors’ benefits on poverty indicators of widowed-mother households and secondly to investigate whether survivors’ benefits promote health status of women and children in these families. |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1018&r=cwa |
| By: | Izak Atiyas (Sabanci University); Ozan Bakis; Esra Ceviker Gurakar |
| Abstract: | It has widely been asserted that an important dimension of social dynamics that eventually carried the Justice and Development Party (Adalet ve Kalkinma Partisi, AKP) to political power is the emergence of a “devout bourgeoisie” especially in the new growth centers of Anatolia. In this paper, we use firm level data over the last three decades to trace the economic and especially productivity dynamics in the manufacturing industries of new growth centers in Anatolia (“Anatolian Tigers”) in comparison to the traditional growth centers (the “West”). We observe that what happened in the 1990s in the Tigers was a significant change in the size distribution of employment with the emergence of a significant number of medium sized enterprises. In the 2000s there was a visible convergence between the labor productivity of highly productive firms in the Tigers and the West, whereas divergence occurred at the lower end of the productivity distribution. We then examine the evolution of members of religious business associations among the largest 1000 manufacturing firms in Turkey. We observe that the number of such firms increased substantially especially after mid-1990s. These firms are concentrated in relatively more labor-intensive industries, and have lower productivity than firms associated with business associations that represent the traditional industrial elite and are quite export oriented. We discuss the possible role of political connections and conclude they possibly had a more diminished role in the emergence of devout businesses in manufacturing compared to rent-thick activities such as public procurement, construction or regulated industries. |
| Date: | 2016–11–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1064&r=cwa |
| By: | Burcay Erus (Bogaziçi University) |
| Abstract: | In 2002 Turkey started to implement reforms in health care aiming to ease access and increase efficiency. Reforms increased insurance coverage and resulted in higher number of outpatient and inpatient treatments at both public and private hospitals. To reign in consequent increase in health expenditures, a series of co-payments were instituted. Along with that primary care services were reformed through a family-medicine system that provided free access. The aim was to channel patients to primary care and hence cut on costs of secondary care. This work aims to measure the impact of these two measures, introduction of co-payments at secondary care and ease of access to free primary care, on out-of-pocket expenditures and access/use of healthcare services. We find that while contributory payments resulted in higher OOP health expenditures, especially for lower income households, the impact was small and did not hinder access to healthcare services. Indeed, possibly due to easier access to primary care, inability to see a doctor became less prevalent. Adverse effect of the contributory payments have been limited and have largely been countered by the provision of a easily available primary care system. |
| Date: | 2016–06–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1070&r=cwa |
| By: | Esra Çeviker Gürakar (Okan University); Tuba Bircan Ildiri |
| Abstract: | Using a unique dataset of 17,937 high value public work construction procurements made between 2004 and 2011, this paper provides systematic evidence on favoritism in public procurement in Turkey. While the yearly total of high value construction procurements has tripled in eight years, the share of procurements that are made through less competitive procurement methods increased due to various legal amendments that increased the use of less competitive procurement methods and hence state discretion in public procurement contract award processes. We find that the politically connected firms enjoyed high levels of government discretion and higher contract prices in public procurements compared to the nonconnected other firms. The probability of a politically connected firm winning a procurement contract increases, among other things, when less competitive award procedures are used. Procurements that are conducted through less competitive methods, cost more towards public. The use of public procurement for rent creation and distribution was extensive particularly for projects that cost more than TL 10 million, and the TOKI projects. |
| Date: | 2016–10–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1053&r=cwa |
| By: | Ali Enami; Nora Lustig (Tulane University); Alireza Taqdiri |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates the role of fiscal system in Iran in reducing poverty and inequality. We employ the marginal contribution approach in which the effect of each component of the system is evaluated by comparing the current system to the counter factual of removing that component from the system. Using the CEQ framework, we show that the fiscal system as a whole reduces inequality and poverty significantly by about 16% and 63% respectively. We find that the main driver of this effect is the Targeted Subsidy Program (implemented in 2010) that eliminated the energy subsidies and substituted them with a nominal cash transfer to every Iranian. We show that the effect of this program on reducing inequality and poverty is about 10% and 64% respectively. The main reduction in poverty comes from the rural areas where this program reduces the poverty headcount index from 37% to 17% comparing to the 5% reduction in the urban areas. Given the success of this program in reaching the bottom deciles of the income distribution and reducing inequality and poverty, we recommend that the current plans of Iranian government in eliminating the subsidy of the top deciles is combined with the allocation of some of the freed funds to the bottom deciles. |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1020&r=cwa |
| By: | Dincer, N. Nergiz; Tekin-Koru, Ayca |
| Abstract: | This paper focuses on gains from trade due to rising within-firm productivity in presence of services exporting. The complementarity between exporting and investing in productivity enhancements is investigated by using descriptive regressions using rich, firm-level data for the period 2003-2011 for Turkey. The authors use three productivity measures for robustness purposes. The results show that firms that export both goods and services throughout the sample have higher productivity compared to all other firms in the sample. Another important result of the paper is related to the firms that switch from being goods exporters to goods and services exporters, which exhibit higher productivity than firms that export only goods or firms that switch from services exporting to exporting both goods and services. Finally, within-firm gains from trade as measured by the productivity growth of firms is insensitive to the services exporting status. More importantly, the authors observe no effect of any of export status of firms considered in this paper on their productivity growth. |
| Keywords: | services trade,productivity,exporting status |
| JEL: | F10 F14 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:20177&r=cwa |