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on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Evren Ceritoglu; Hatice Burcu Gurcihan Yunculer; Huzeyfe Torun; Semih Tumen |
| Abstract: | Civil conflict in Syria, started in March 2011, led to a massive wave of forced immigration from the Northern Syria to the Southeastern regions of Turkey, which later had serious economic/political repercussions on the MENA region and most of the Europe. This paper exploits this natural experiment to estimate the impact of Syrian refugees on the labor market outcomes of natives in Turkey. Using a difference-in-differences strategy, we find that immigration has somewhat affected the employment outcomes of natives, while its impact on wage outcomes has been negligible. We document some employment losses among informal workers as a consequence of refugee inflows. Formal employment increased slightly potentially due to increased social services in the region. The majority of those who lost their informal jobs have either left the labor force or remained unemployed. Formal employment and unemployment rates have increased, while labor force participation, informal employment, and job finding rates have declined among natives. Disadvantaged groups – i.e., women, younger workers, and less-educated workers – have been affected the most. The prevalence of informal employment in the Turkish labor markets has amplified the negative impact of Syrian refugee inflows on natives’ labor market outcomes. Overall, the impact of Syrian refugee inflows on the Turkish labor markets has been limited, which suggests that the potential costs on the European and other affected labor markets might also be limited. |
| Keywords: | Syrian civil conflict, Immigration, Turkey, Labor market, Informality, Difference in differences |
| JEL: | J15 J21 J46 J61 C21 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1705&r=cwa |
| By: | Ali Enami (Stone Center for Latin American Studies, Department of Economics, Tulane University. Commitment to Equity Institute (CEQI).); Nora Lustig (Stone Center for Latin American Studies, Department of Economics, Tulane University. Commitment to Equity Institute (CEQI).); Alireza Taqdiri (University of Akron, OH, USA) |
| Abstract: | Using the Iranian Household Expenditure and Income Survey (HEIS) for 2011/12, we apply the marginal contribution approach to determine the impact and effectiveness of each fiscal intervention, and the fiscal system as a whole, on inequality and poverty. Net direct and indirect taxes combined reduce the Gini coefficient by 0.0644 points and the headcount ratio by 61 percent. When the monetized value of in-kind benefits in education and health are included, the reduction in inequality is 0.0919 Gini points. Based on the magnitudes of the marginal contributions, we find that the main driver of these reduction is the Targeted Subsidy Program, a universal cash transfer program implemented in 2010 to compensate individuals for the elimination of energy subsidies. The main reduction in poverty occurs in rural areas, where the headcount ratio declines from 44 to 23 percent. In urban areas, fiscally-induced poverty reduction is more modest: the headcount ratio declines from 13 to 5 percent. Taxes and transfers are similar in their effectiveness in achieving their inequality-reducing potential. By achieving 40 percent of its inequality-reducing potential, the income tax is the most effective intervention on the revenue side. On the spending side, Social Assistance transfers are the most effective and they achieve 45 percent of their potential. Taxes are especially effective in raising revenue without causing poverty to rise, indicating that the poor are largely spared from being taxed. In contrast, since the bulk of transfers are not targeted to the poor, they are not very effective: the most effective ones achieve 20 percent of their poverty reduction potential. The effectiveness of the Targeted Subsidy Program could be improved by eliminating the transfer to top deciles and re-allocating the freed funds to the poor. |
| Keywords: | Inequality, poverty, marginal contribution, CEQ framework, policy simulation |
| JEL: | D31 H22 I38 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tul:ceqwps:48&r=cwa |
| By: | Vugar Rahimov (Central Bank of the Republic of Azerbaijan); Nigar Jafarova (Central Bank of the Republic of Azerbaijan); Fuad Ganbarov (Azerbaijan National Academy of Sciences, Institute of Economics) |
| Abstract: | In this study, we explore the pass-through of exchange rate fluctuations to domestic CPI and its components for Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Russia. Using the data of 2003:Q1-2016:Q2, we estimate a VAR model and find significant but incomplete pass-through in all sample countries. The accumulated pass-through to aggregate CPI within one year is 28 percent for both Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan; however the equivalent figure for Russia is 32 percent. According to our empirical findings the largest pass-through (ERPT) is observed in the non-food CPI in Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, whereas in Russia the food prices demonstrate the greatest ERPT. Since the ERPT is an essential ingredient of price developments in sample countries, it should be assessed precisely and taken into account in monetary policy decisions and inflation forecasting. |
| Keywords: | Exchange rate pass-through, VAR model, disaggregated CPI, oil exporting countries |
| JEL: | F31 E31 E52 C51 C52 |
| Date: | 2017–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gii:giihei:heidwp06-2017&r=cwa |
| By: | Ebru Kongar; Emel Memis |
| Abstract: | Using data from the 2006 Turkish Time-Use Survey, we examine gender differences in time allocation among married heterosexual couples over the life cycle. While we find large discrepancies in the gender division of both paid and unpaid work at each life stage, the gender gap in paid and unpaid work is largest among parents of infants compared to parents of older children and couples without children. The gender gap narrows as children grow up and parents age. Married women's housework time remains relatively unchanged across their life cycle, while older men spend more time doing housework than their younger counterparts. Over the course of the life cycle, women's total work burden increases relative to men's. Placing our findings within the gendered institutional context in Turkey, we argue that gender-inequitable work-family reconciliation policies that are based on gendered assumptions of women's role as caregivers exacerbate gender disparities in time use. |
| Keywords: | Economics of Gender; Time Use; Life Cycle; Turkey |
| JEL: | D13 J16 J22 |
| Date: | 2017–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_884&r=cwa |