|
on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Ali Enami (Tulane University and CEQ Institute.) |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces two new Commitment to Equity (CEQ) indexes to assess the effectiveness of taxes and transfers in reducing inequality and poverty: the Impact and Spending Effectiveness indicators. The Spending Effectiveness indicator has an additional interpretation as a measure of efficiency. These effectiveness indicators are used in this paper to rank taxes and transfers in Iran. In addition, I estimate the Fiscal Impoverishment and Fiscal Gains to the Poor Effectiveness indicators, which have also been developed by the CEQ Institute. The results show that in this case study, taxes and transfers are similarly effective in achieving their inequality-reducing potential. The income tax is the most effective intervention on the revenue side, achieving 40 percent of its inequality-reducing potential. On the spending side, social assistance transfers are the most effective, achieving 45 percent of their potential. Taxes are especially effective in raising revenue without causing poverty to rise, indicating that the poor are largely spared from taxation. In contrast, transfers are not very effective because the majority of them are not targeted to the poor: the most effective transfers achieve 21 percent of their poverty reduction potential. |
| Keywords: | Inequality, poverty, fiscal incidence, marginal contribution, effectiveness indicator, policy simulation, Iran |
| JEL: | D31 H22 I38 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tul:ceqwps:58&r=cwa |
| By: | Wani, Nassir Ul Haq; Kabir, Habib |
| Abstract: | Public debt is one of the main macroeconomic indicators, which forms countries’ image in international markets. It is one of the inward foreign direct investment flow determinants. A prudent public debt management helps economic growth and stability through mobilizing resources with low borrowing cost and limiting financial risk exposure. The objective of this study was to establish the relationship between public debt and economic growth in Afghanistan. The study used secondary data collected from various sources collected from Ministry of Finance, treasury directorship, debt department, World Bank web page and Da Afghanistan Bank. The study period included 2008-2012 financial periods. The data was collected using data collection sheet which was edited, coded and cleaned. To establish the relationship between public debt and economic development, the study conducted a regression analysis. Domestic debt is characterized by higher interest rates compared with those on external debt, which is contracted mainly on concessional terms, and it is therefore expensive to maintain. Domestic debt reduction could be achieved using proceeds from the privatization program of public corporations, or the use of externally borrowed resources which are mainly on concessional terms to retire more expensive domestic debt. The government should therefore develop a framework for recording and monitoring all contingent liabilities and also formulate and implement a policy for management of the contingent liabilities. The government should therefore continue to implement wider reforms that promote investment in Treasury bonds, and encourage institutional investors such as pension funds and insurance companies to invest in Treasury bonds. |
| Keywords: | Afghanistan, Public debt, Economic growth. |
| JEL: | H0 H2 H6 H8 |
| Date: | 2016–10–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:75538&r=cwa |
| By: | Gokhan Sahin Gunes (Koc University-TUSIAD ERF and Koc University); Sumru Oz (Koc University-TUSIAD ERF) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of negative interest rate announcements of the ECB on Turkish financial markets. Negative Interest Rate Policies (NIRP) are expected to affect emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) through an increase in the inflow of capital searching for higher yields. The expectation for an increase in short-term capital inflows to an EMDE might have transmission channels to the whole economy similar to those of expansionary monetary policies, except for a sign change in case of the exchange rate channel. The rest of the transmission channels are portfolio, interest rate, and credit channels. The latter is excluded from the analysis since it takes time to realize. Accordingly, we analyze the impact of negative interest rate announcements of the ECB on EUR/TRY and USD/TRY exchange rates; 1-month and 3-month TRLibor rates; BIST 100 Index, as well as 2-year and 10-year bond returns using GARCH (1,1) model. The results show that the announcements significantly affect both the volatility of Turkey's financial indicators and their returns especially through interest rate and portfolio channels. The robustness of the results on volatility is tested by using an event study. |
| Keywords: | NIRP, transmission channels, financial indicators, Turkey. |
| JEL: | E58 F30 G10 |
| Date: | 2016–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:koc:wpaper:1614&r=cwa |
| By: | Basihos, Seda |
| Abstract: | For a while in Turkey, researchers dealing with spatial economics are unable to make detailed comparative and descriptive analysis on sub-national base due to lack of data. In particular, GDP, which is a basic indicator of economic activities, has not been published in Turkey at sub-national level since 2001. In this study, we use a different data source, night-time satellite imagery, to obtain sub-national GDP and GDP per capita series for the period between 2001 and 2013 at the level of provinces which is the basic administrative division of the Country. We also re-construct the series for the period between 1992 and 2001. For the estimation of sub-national GDP, we use Neural Network Algorithm. |
| Keywords: | Nightlights, GDP, Gross Provincial Product, Economic Growth, Neural Network, Spatial Economics, Turkey |
| JEL: | C45 O1 O49 R11 |
| Date: | 2016–05–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:75553&r=cwa |