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on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | M. Utku Özmen; Orhun Sevinç |
| Abstract: | In this study we investigate the duration of consumer price spells and price change patterns for Turkey by employing a comprehensive micro price data covering around 6,000 items over four years. In detail, we analyze how long typical price spell lasts and we investigate the size, frequency, distribution and synchronization of price changes. Compared to advanced economies, a higher frequency of price changes is estimated. Findings suggest substantial heterogeneity among sub-groups in terms of frequency and synchronization indicators. The mixed evidence of both state and time-dependent pricing is also relevant for Turkey, an emerging market economy. |
| Keywords: | consumer prices; price spell duration; price rigidity; distribution of price changes; state and time dependent pricing |
| JEL: | N0 |
| Date: | 2015–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:66507&r=cwa |
| By: | Ufuk Demiroglu; Caglar Yunculer |
| Abstract: | This paper is motivated by the surprising rapid growth of new light-vehicle sales in Turkey in 2015. Domestic sales grew 25%, dramatically surpassing the industry estimates of around 8%. Our approach is to inform the sales trend estimate with the information obtained from the light-vehicle stock (the number of cars and light trucks officially registered in the country), and the scrappage data. More specifically, we improve the sales trend estimate by estimating the trend of its stock. Using household data, we show that an important reason for the rapid sales growth is that an increasing share of household budgets is spent on automobile purchases. The elasticity of light-vehicle sales to cyclical changes in aggregate demand is high and robust; its estimates are around 6 with a standard deviation of about 0.5. The price elasticity of light-vehicle sales is estimated to be about 0.8, but the estimates are imprecise and not robust. We estimate the trend level of light-vehicle sales to be roughly 7 percent of the existing stock. A remarkable out-of-sample forecast performance is obtained for horizons up to nearly a decade by a regression equation using only a cyclical gap measure, the time trend and obvious policy dummies. Various specifications suggest that the strong 2015 growth of light-vehicle sales was predictable in late 2014. |
| Keywords: | Light vehicles, Light-vehicle stock, Number of registered cars, Light-vehicle scrappage, Automobile sales, Turkish economy |
| JEL: | E27 E32 L62 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1627&r=cwa |
| By: | Gür, Bekir S. |
| Keywords: | Education |
| Date: | 2016–02–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:cshedu:qt5j3140kb&r=cwa |
| By: | Erdal Yilmaz; Canan Yuksel Yucel |
| Abstract: | [TR] 2008 yilinda yasanan kuresel finansal krizin ardindan Turkiye’nin de icinde bulundugu gelismekte olan ulkelere hizli sermaye girisleri yasanmistir. Bu girislerle birlikte merkezi yonetim ic borc stoku icindeki yurt diþi yerlesiklerin payi, 2006-2009 doneminde ortalama yüzde 11,6 iken; Mayis 2016 itibariyla yuzde 18,8’e ulasmistir. Yabanci yatirimcilarin ic borc stoku icindeki payi, ekonomi acisindan onemli bir degisken olan uzun donemli borclanma faizinin seviyesi ve oynakligini etkilemektedir. Yatirim ve tuketim davranislari uzerinde belirleyici olmasinin yani sira para politikasi aktarimini ve mali alani etkiledigi icin uzun donemli faizler uzerinde yabanci yatirimci payinin etkilerinin anlasilmasi onem tasimaktadir. Bu calisma Turkiye’de yabanci payindaki degisimlerin uzun donemli faizlerin seviye ve oynakligi uzerindeki etkisini incelemektedir. Bulgular yabanci payindaki degisimlerin uzun donemli faizlerin seviyesi ile ters yonlu; oynakligiyla ise pozitif yonlu bir iliskisi oldugunu gostermektedir. [EN] Following the global financial crisis in 2008, there was a huge capital inflow into emerging market countries, including Turkey. With these inflows, the share of foreign investors in local currency government bonds market in Turkey, which was 11.6 percent in 2006-2009, increased to 18.8 percent by May 2016. The share of foreign investors affects the level and volatility of long-term borrowing rate, which is a crucial indicator for the economy. Therefore, it is of great importance to document the effects of foreign share on long-term interest rate as it affects investment and consumption decisions and the transmission of monetary policy and fiscal space. This study aims to determine the effects of change in foreign holdings on the level and volatility of long-term interest rates in Turkey. The results indicate that change in foreign investors’ share is positively linked to long-term interest rates and negatively to interest rate volatility. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1632&r=cwa |
| By: | Mahmood Mahmoudzadeh; Seyyed Ali Zeytoon Nejad Moosavian |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this study is to measure the Total Factor Productivity (TFP) growth and determine the share of each of the economic growth sources in the mining sector of Iran. The time period of this study is 1355-1385 of the Solar Hijri calendar (roughly overlaying with the time period of 1976-2006 of the Gregorian calendar). In this paper, the shares of total factor productivity growth (TFPG) and factors' accumulations in the economic growth of the mining sector are estimated using a neoclassical growth accounting approach. Based on the estimated restricted Cobb-Douglas production function and the results obtained from the Solow residual equation, the annual growth rates of TFP were measured for each year. According to the findings, the average annual growth rate of TFP has been 2.94% during the time period of the present study. The other findings of this study indicate that the average contributions of TFPG, labor accumulation and capital accumulation in the economic growth of the mining sector have been 56%, 23%, and 21%, respectively, during the time period of the study. As such, it can be concluded that the policy of benefiting from available factors in the mining sector together with the policy of accumulating factors have simultaneously caused the value-added growth of this sector. Therefore, considering the desired performance of the mining sector in terms of its sizable productivity growth, it can be argued that the mining sector can aid Iran's economic development plans to achieve their assigned economic objectives, one of which is to increase the share of total factor productivity growth in economic growth. |
| Date: | 2016–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1612.00833&r=cwa |