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on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Nargiza Alimukhamedova (CERGE-EI); Randall K. Filer (Hunter College; Graduate Center, CUNY; CERGE-EI); Jan Hanousek (CERGE-EI) |
| Abstract: | The geographic distance between a household and financial institutions may constitute a significant obstacle to achieving the benefits of modern financial institutions. We measure the impact of distance-related access to microcredits in Uzbekistan. Residents living closer to microfinance institutions are propensity score matched to those further away using both household and village characteristics. Households located nearer to microfinance institutions have larger businesses in terms of income, profits and employees than similar households located further away. In addition, they spend more on most forms of consumption and have greater savings. |
| Keywords: | microcredit, microfinance institutions, geographic access |
| JEL: | O16 C34 |
| Date: | 2016–11–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:htr:hcecon:445&r=cwa |
| By: | Simohammed, Kamel; Benhabib, Abderrezzak; Maliki, Samir |
| Abstract: | The objective of this study is to investigate the impact of oil prices on macroeconomic fundamentals as well as monetary policy and stock market for eight oil-exporting and non-oil exports countries in the Middle East and North African region,namely Algeria,Egypt,Iran,Kuwait,Morocco, Saudi Arabia,Tunisia and Turkey. Using quarterly data for the period 1994Q4-2015Q2,with a Panel-ARDL, we may conclude that there are short run dynamic cross section relationships between,first,oil prices and macroeconomic variables such as growth rate and consumer price index, second, oil prices and money market rate and, third, market capitalization and oil prices. In the long run, dependent variables such as consumer price index and market stock exhibit a cointegration relationship with oil prices. However, no cointegration relationships could be established between oil price variations, monetary policy and growth rate. In this context, we apply a multivariate VAR model to examine responses of all variables to oil price shocks. Results show a relatively high elastic response of economic growth in oil-exporting countries except for Kuwait and, conversely, in oil-importing economics, GDP response to oil prices appear reasonably stable, close to zero. Similarly, the same results can be captured for each oil-importing and exporting country as far as the negative sign exhibited by market response to oil price during the first period caused by financial crisis contagion. The next macroeconomic variable, CPI, shows a positive response to oil.In addition, oil prices appear to have a negligible response on money market rates in the Middle East and North Africa except for Turkey and Egypt. |
| Keywords: | Oil shocks; Economic growth; Economy; Monetary policy; Stock market; Panel ARDL |
| JEL: | E00 E52 |
| Date: | 2015–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:75278&r=cwa |
| By: | Altan Aldan; Hatice Burcu Gurcihan Yunculer |
| Abstract: | We analyze the direction and the magnitude of the responsiveness of real wages to the business cycle in Turkey using longitudinal data covering the 2006-2012 period. We find that wages in Turkey are quite procyclical; a 1 percentage point increase in the unemployment rate induces a 0.8 percent decline in real wages. This result can be obtained only if individual heterogeneity is taken into account. We also document wage cyclicality for different groups such as young, low educated, informal workers and job movers. We find a weaker wage response for the low educated and a stronger response for job movers. We also document wage cyclicality along the wage distribution. We find that workers who earn around the minimum wage have acyclical wages. Binding minimum wage suppresses wage cyclicality. For the rest of the distribution wages are highly procyclical. |
| Keywords: | Turkey, Real wages, Real wage cyclicality |
| JEL: | J30 E23 E26 E32 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1625&r=cwa |
| By: | Selen Andic |
| Abstract: | [EN] Having a real GDP that compares to the half of Turkish GDP in 1970, South Korea caught up with Turkey in the late 1980s and then outpaced it. In this study, we aim to understand why the convergence experiences of the two countries differ by comparing them in terms of their GDP compositions. 2014 per capita nominal income of Turkey has been achieved around 2000 in Korea. Hence, the countries reached to similar levels of income after 35 to 40 years upon their adoption of export-led growth. However, “how” they have arrived at this level diverges. The findings indicate that Turkey has reached it by relatively high consumption, and low investment with subdued non-residential construction. [TR] 1970’de Turkiye ekonomisinin yaklasik yarisi buyuklugunde bir ekonomiye sahip olan Guney Kore, 1980’lerin sonunda Turkiye’yi yakalamis ve geride birakmistir. Bu calismada, ulkelerin GSYIH kompozisyonlari incelenerek neden iki ulkenin yakinsama sureclerinin farklilastigi tartisilmaktadir. Kore, Turkiye’nin 2014’deki nominal kisi basi gelir seviyesine 2000 senesinde ulasmistir. Yani, her iki ulke de ihracata dayali buyume modelini benimsemelerinden yaklasik 35-40 sene sonra benzer bir gelir seviyesine sahip olmustur. Ancak, ulkeler bu seviyeye “nasil” geldikleri acisindan ayrismaktadir. Bulgular, Turkiye’nin soz konusu seviyeye gorece yuksek tuketim, dusuk yatirim ve dusuk konut disi insaat kompozisyonu ile ulastigina isaret etmektedir. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1629&r=cwa |
| By: | Antonio Carvalho (Centre for Energy Economics Research and Policy, Heriot-Watt University) |
| Abstract: | The paper outlines and estimates a measure of underlying efficiency in electricity consumption for an unbalanced panel of 28 transition economies and 5 Western European OECD countries in the period 1994-2007, by estimating a Bayesian Generalized True Random Effects (GTRE) stochastic frontier model that estimates both persistent and transient inefficiency. The properties of alternative GTRE estimation methods in small samples are explored to guide the estimation strategy. The paper analyses the behaviour of underlying efficiency in electricity consumption in these economies after accounting for time-invariant technological differences. After outlining the specific characteristics of the transition economies and their heterogeneous structural economic changes, an aggregate electricity demand function is estimated to obtain efficiency scores that give new insights for transition economies than a simple analysis of energy intensity. There is some evidence of convergence between the CIS countries and a block of Eastern European and selected OECD countries, although other country groups do not follow this tendency, such as the Balkans. |
| Keywords: | Electricity Consumption, Transition Economies, Energy Efficiency, Stochastic Frontier |
| JEL: | C23 Q49 P20 |
| Date: | 2016–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hwc:wpaper:004&r=cwa |