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on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Vuslat Us |
| Abstract: | [EN] This paper analyzes the determinants of non-performing loans in the Turkish banking sector before and after the global crisis. The bank-specific determinants include measures on persistence, capital adequacy, profitability, lending, inefficiency and bank size, while other determinants include the real GDP growth, inflation, exchange rate and the policy rate, which represent macroeconomic and policy-related variables. In addition, the determinants also include a dummy variable for the global crisis. Estimation results suggest that the determinants of non-performing loans have changed after the crisis. Non-performing loans are mostly shaped by bank-specific factors before the crisis, whereas bank-specific factors have a reduced effect after the global crisis. This can be owed to global factors, which certainly had effects on financial conditions. In the upcoming period, the course of global policy normalization may affect financial conditions and hence non-performing loans. This implies challenges and prospects regarding financial stability and the conduct of monetary policy. [TR] Bu calismada, Turk bankacilik sektorundeki takipteki kredilerin belirleyicileri kuresel kriz oncesi ve sonrasinda incelenmektedir. Bankaya ozgu belirleyiciler olarak atalet, sermaye yeterliligi, karlilik, kredi arzi, verimsizlik ve banka buyuklugu; makroekonomik ve politikaya iliskin etkenler olarak ise buyume, enflasyon, doviz kuru ve politika faizi calismaya dahil edilmektedir. Buna ek olarak, kuresel krize iliskin kukla degiskeni de belirleyiciler arasinda yer almaktadir. Tahmin sonuclari, takipteki kredilerin belirleyicilerinin kriz sonrasinda degistigini gostermektedir. Buna gore, kriz oncesi donemde takipteki krediler buyuk oranda bankaya ozgu degiskenler tarafindan belirlenirken, kriz sonrasi donemde bu degiskenlerin etkileri azalmaktadir. Bunun sebebi, kriz sonrasi donemde finansal kosullarin kuresel etkenler tarafindan sekillenmis olmasidir. Onumuzdeki donemde, kuresel politika normallesmesinin izleyecegi seyrin finansal kosullar ve dolayisiyla takipteki krediler uzerinde etkili olmasi muhtemel gozukmektedir. Bu durum, finansal istikrar ve para politikasina iliskin zorluklar ve olasiliklara isaret etmektedir. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1627&r=cwa |
| By: | Mehmet Buyukkara; Ayse Karasoy; Muhammed Islami Onal |
| Abstract: | [EN] After the global financial crisis, a new resolution tool, bail-in is introduced by the Financial Stability Board (FSB) to manage the orderly resolution of failing financial institutions. Bail-in is a framework that creditors and shareholders bear the cost of resolution and taxpayers are not exposed to loss. In this article, we analyze the Turkish bail-out and assess the bail-in capacity of the Turkish banking sector considering the public cost caused by 2000-2001 crises as a base scenario. We conclude that bail-inable instruments compared to total liabilities have increased since the beginning of 2000s and they would be enough to protect taxpayers from loss if a similar size of public cost occurs as in 2000-2001 crises. In addition, the scope for the bail-in and the assessment of the resolution authority for the inclusion and exclusion of instruments will also have an effect on the loss absorption capacity of Turkish banks. [TR] Kuresel finansal krizden sonra finansal kuruluslarin sistemli bir sekilde cozumlemeye tabi tutulabilmesi icin Finansal Istikrar Kurulu (FSB) tarafindan yeni bir cozumleme araci olarak icsel cozumleme (bail-in) ortaya konmustur. Icsel cozumlemenin amaci cozumlemede ortaya cikan zararin borc verenler ve hissedarlar tarafindan paylasilmasidir. Bu calismada 2000-2001 krizinin maliyetleri dikkate alinarak ulkemiz bankacilik sektorunun icsel cozumleme kapasitesi incelenmistir. Krizden itibaren icsel cozumleme kapsaminda kullanilabilecek araclarin arttigi ve benzer buyuklukte bir kriz olmasi durumunda bankacilik yukumluluklerinin cozumleme maliyetlerini karsilamada yeterli olabilecegi sonucuna varilmistir. Buna ek olarak, cozumleme otoritesinin icsel cozumleme cercevesine dahil edilecek ve cercevenin disinda birakilacak araclara iliskin degerlendirmesi de bankacilik sektorunun zarar karsilama kapasitesine etkide bulunacaktir. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1624&r=cwa |
| By: | Cem Cebi; K. Azim Ozdemir |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to investigate cyclical variation of government spending multiplier for Turkey over the period of 1990:q1-2015:q4. We use a time series model, namely local projection method, to estimate the variation in the fiscal multiplier under two different regimes: low and high growth regimes with respect to long-term economic growth. In line with the literature our results confirm that the effectiveness of fiscal policy enhances at times of low growth compared with times of high growth. Turning to the components of government spending, we find that the magnitude of government investment multiplier is larger than that of government consumption multiplier in both regimes. This evidence supports the view that an expansionary fiscal policy via public investment has a profound effect on output compared to public consumption. However, we find an evidence that the influence of government consumption on GDP increases substantially at times of low growth. All in all, we suggest policymakers to use public investment rather than public consumption in order to stimulate the economy during economic expansion and prefer to increase public consumption at the times of economic slow down. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal Policy, State-dependent fiscal multipliers, Local Projection |
| JEL: | E62 H30 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1619&r=cwa |
| By: | Didem Gunes; Ferhat Camlica |
| Abstract: | [EN] This study aims to analyze empirically how economic activity reacts to financial stress during different stress episodes in Turkey. Thus, we use monthly data for the period 2002-2015 and estimate a Threshold Vector Autoregression Model (TVAR) with industrial production and an unique financial stress index as endogenous variables. The main findings show that, in case of a given financial stress shock the economic activity loss in a high stress regime is about five times larger than a shock in a normal stress regime. Also, the effect of financial stress on economic activity during a high financial stress episode is more long-lasting than a financial stress shock during a normal stress episode. [TR] Bu calismanin amaci, Turkiye icin farkli finansal stres donemlerinde ekonomik aktivitenin finansal stres soklarini nasil tepki verdigini ampirik olarak analiz etmektir. Bunun icin, 2002-2015 donemine ait aylik frekansta veriler kullanilarak, sanayi uretimi ile ozgun bir finansal stres endeksinin icsel degiskenler olarak yer aldigi Esik VAR tahmini yapilmaktadir. Calismanin temel bulgulari, veri bir finansal stres sokundan sonra ekonomik aktivite kaybinin yuksek finansal stres doneminde normal stres donemine kiyasla bes kat daha yuksek olduguna isaret etmektedir. Ayrica, yuksek finansal stres doneminde gerceklesen bir finansal stres sokunun etkisi normal donemdekine gore ekonomik aktivite uzerinde daha uzun sureli bir etki yaratmaktadir. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1628&r=cwa |
| By: | Shojaee, M. |
| Abstract: | The working paper looks at the history of Iranian media by and for women, culminating in cyberfeminism. The main focus are women's websites and cyber campaigns dedicated to improving women's rights, and how they helped to mobilize Iranian women's movements. There are two main case studies: The main case study on websites is the "Feminist School" as an important site for feminist discourse and women's movements managed from inside Iran. The main case study in relation to cyber campaigns is the "My stealthy freedom" campaign which is undertaken from outside Iran. Through these two case studies, the paper aims to answer the following questions: To what extent and how do these sites provide strategic opportunities for the Iranian women's movement to advocating gender equality and women's rights? And did the cyber campaign help to build coalitions between women's movements inside Iran and diaspora activism outside of Iran? The case studies are based on the author’s earlier work on the history of the women' movement, interviews with leaders and directors of women's websites and directors of mobilizing cyber campaigns along with self-reflective and discourse analysis of the websites and campaigns. A biography of the author can be found here: (http://www.pen-deutschland.de/en/themen /writers-in-exile/ehemalige-stipendiaten /mansoureh-shojaee/) |
| Keywords: | cyberfeminism, clicktivism, women's movement, Iran, social media |
| Date: | 2016–10–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ems:euriss:93639&r=cwa |