|
on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Cavid Nabiyev (Central Bank of Azerbaijan Republic); Kanan Musayev (Central Bank of Azerbaijan Republic); Leyla Yusifzada (Central Bank of Azerbaijan Republic) |
| Abstract: | The study provides empirical analysis of the cross-country relationship between a direct measure of competitive conduct of banking system and financial system in CIS countries during the period from 2001 to 2013. We determine the level of banking competition by using Panzar and Rosse H-statistic. Estimation results from Logit probability analysis reveal that the level of competition does not significantly affect the probability of banking crisis in such countries. However, a number of macroeconomic and institutional factors have a significant influence in financial stability. According to empirical results, higher inflation increases the probability of a banking crisis. On the other hand, credit growth decreases the probability of banking crisis in the investigated countries. These results are robust to the methodology when the interaction of concentration and h-statistic is used. The institutional factors have significant influence on preventing banking crises. Specifically, improvement in government effectiveness decreases the probability of banking crisis. |
| Keywords: | banking competition, concentration, competition-stability, competition-fragility, h-statistics, financial stability |
| JEL: | G21 D41 |
| Date: | 2016–06–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aze:wpaper:1604&r=cwa |
| By: | Ramiz Rahmanov (Central Bank of Azerbaijan Republic); Asif Gasimov (Central Bank of Azerbaijan Republic); Gulzar Tahirova (Central Bank of Azerbaijan Republic) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the development of the labor market in Azerbaijan from the early 1990s until the early 2010s. The analysis shows that the labor market has a range of positive characteristics such as high labor force participation and employment, low youth and female unemployment, flexibility, and a low share of the “working poor”, all of which can beneficially influence future economic prospects. However, the Azerbaijani labor market also experiences certain undesirable developments, such as an increase in the share of labor with primary education, a shift towards elementary occupations, a high share of self-employment, and an excess of labor cost growth over productivity growth, all of which can threaten further economic development. |
| Keywords: | labor market, labor market flexibility, employment, unemployment, labor force, Azerbaijan |
| JEL: | J21 J63 J65 P23 P31 |
| Date: | 2016–05–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aze:wpaper:1602&r=cwa |
| By: | Dina Gungor (Nazarbayev University Graduate School of Education); Renata Apergenova (Nazarbayev University Graduate School of Education) |
| Abstract: | Kazakhstan, located in the heart of Asia between Russia and China, has a centuries-long history and rich culture. In 1991 when the Soviet Union collapsed a new independent state appeared on the map. Nowadays, Kazakhstan is a young and fast-growing country. Having completed two decades of the post-Soviet period and responding to the challenges of the market in terms of globalization, Kazakhstan moves to a new stage of social and economic development and pays a special attention to education market. Institutional autonomy and shared governance system of higher education institutions are the mechanisms that Kazakhstan is implementing to enhance the development of higher education. The proposed paper explores the role of Boards of Trustees and Boards of Overseers in Kazakhstani higher education institutions as elements of shared governance. These governing boards are a new phenomenon in Kazakhstani university governance system in the post-soviet era. In most countries governing boards were created historically. For example, in the USA the people (Trustees) gathered as a charity group who decided to create an institution. In other words, the Boards of Trustees were a base of establishing the University. In comparison with the USA approach, Kazakhstani Boards of Trustees or Overseers were established artificially in the mid of 2000 and later when the universities took the initials steps toward institutional autonomy assisted in enhancing shared governance system. Newly created Boards had to be developed at the point of two systems: the old one that is more centralized and the new one that differs from the previous one aiming at autonomous streaming. Establishing new Boards has caused a lot of challenges. Firstly, the system required additional policy changes to accept the innovation and it had to be aligned accordingly. Secondly, the people in academia needed to be ready for the system. People mindset and cultural peculiarities can be a strong factor that may resist the change or set back the clock. The role of governing boards of Kazakhstani higher education institutions differs from the systems the concept was borrowed from. However, the tailored version of the Boards in Kazakhstan serves as a considerable asset to higher education institutions, regardless the challenges of implementation. |
| Keywords: | Kazakhstan, higher education, governing boards, shared governance, autonomy |
| JEL: | I28 I23 I29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iacpro:4106889&r=cwa |
| By: | Armagan Tuna Aktuna-Gunes (PSE - Paris School of Economics, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); François Gardes (PSE - Paris School of Economics, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Christophe Starzec (PSE - Paris School of Economics, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | In this article, the size of informal economy is measured by using the full price method proposed by Gardes F. (2014). As an extension of this method, price elasticities are re-estimated by integrating the underreported earning shares both for wage workers and self-employers from cross-sectional data covering 2003-2006 in Turkey. The contribution of this paper is threefold: The size of informal economy is estimated by a statistical matching of the Turkish Family Budget and Time Use surveys through a complete demand system including full prices. Second, more accurate price and income elasticities are estimated by using the monetary incomes from informal activities for an emerging economy such as Turkey. Third, extended full price estimation of demand elasticities allow us to discover for which consumption group households are more likely to engage in informal work. |
| Abstract: | Dans cet article, la taille de l'économie informelle est estimée en utilisant la méthode du prix complet proposée par Gardes F. (2014). Les élasticités de prix sont estimées en intégrant les parties sous-déclarés des revenus des travailleurs indépendants et salariés en utilisant des données transversales couvrant 2003-2006 en Turquie. La contribution de cet article est triple : la taille de l'économie informelle est estimée par l'appariement statistique des enquêtes turques sur le Budget des Familles avec l'enquête sur l'Emploi du Temps en intégrant les prix complets dans le système complet de demande. Deuxièmement, les élasticités des prix et de revenu sont estimées plus justement en élargissant les ressources monétaires avec les parts des revenus provenant des activités informelles, pour une économie émergente comme la Turquie. Troisièmement, cette dernière nous permet de découvrir pour quels groupes de consommation sont les ménages plus susceptibles de s'engager dans le travail informel. |
| Keywords: | informal economy,complete demand system,full prices,demand elasticity,économie informelle,système complet de demande,prix complets,élasticités de demande |
| Date: | 2014–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-01149595&r=cwa |
| By: | Oliver Röhn |
| Abstract: | The global financial crisis and its high economic and social costs have revived academic and policy interest in “early warning indicators” of crises. This paper aims to investigate the performance of vulnerability indicators as advance warning indicators of past severe GDP per capita recessions in Turkey. It draws on the recently established database of vulnerability indicators (Röhn et al., 2015) and employs the signalling approach as in Hermansen and Röhn (2015) complemented by visual inspections to detect vulnerability indicators that performed particularly well in the Turkish context. The evidence suggests that an index of the global stock market performs extremely well in the Turkish context. This index, which could be interpreted as a proxy for the risk appetite of global investors, exceeded its critical threshold before almost all past severe GDP per capita recessions in Turkey while sending only very few false alarms. Among domestic indicators, large positive deviations of household credit and the domestic stock market from trend also perform relatively well in signalling subsequent past severe GDP per capita recessions. The evidence is broadly robust to considering a more homogenous set of lower income OECD countries when defining the critical thresholds. Indicateurs d'alerte des récessions sévères passées en Turquie La crise financière mondiale et ses coûts économiques et sociaux élevés ont ravivé l'intérêt académique et politique pour les « indicateurs d'alerte rapide » des crises. Ce document vise à étudier la performance des indicateurs de vulnérabilité comme indicateurs d'alerte des récessions sévères passées en Turquie. Il se fonde sur un nouvel ensemble d'indicateurs de vulnérabilité récemment établi (Röhn et al., 2015), et emploie la méthode de signalisation utilisée dans Hermansen et Röhn (2015), complétée par des inspections visuelles pour détecter des indicateurs de vulnérabilité ayant particulièrement bien fonctionné dans le contexte turc. Les résultats indiquent que l'indice du marché boursier mondial performe extrêmement bien dans le cas turc. Cet indice, qui pourrait être interprété comme un proxy de l'appétit pour le risque des investisseurs mondiaux, a dépassé son seuil critique avant presque toutes les récessions sévères passées en Turquie. Il a envoyé très peu de fausses alarmes. Parmi les indicateurs intérieurs, de grands écarts positifs des crédits aux ménages, et du marché boursier par rapport aux tendances fonctionnent aussi relativement bien. Les résultats sont dans l’ensemble robustes à la considération d’un ensemble plus homogène de pays à faible revenu de l'OCDE dans la définition des seuils critiques. |
| Keywords: | resilience, imbalances, recession, crisis |
| JEL: | E32 E44 E51 F47 O5 |
| Date: | 2016–10–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1334-en&r=cwa |
| By: | Nazak Nobari (Management and Planning Organization of Iran); Mahmoud Askari Azad (Free Researcher) |
| Abstract: | Economic growth is a fundamental measurement to assess a country's performance and productivity. For this reason, growth and productivity are in policy agenda of many countries especially success economic countries. Based on some studies and reports (e.g., those by UK parliament, 2016; OECD, 2012), labor productivity in developed countries is analyzed and considered as a secondary economic growth. In this study, we investigated the relationship between economic growth and change of labor productivity in Iran and their challenges. Our object was to answer to two questions: 1) Is any relationship between level of GPD and labor productivity in Iran? ; 2) What are the driving forces (effective factors) behind the growth of labor productivity?To answer to question 1, economic data from national and international information bank gathered. Relation between GDP and labor productivity examined by calculating some ratios and finally, trends and behavioral patterns analyzed. Patterns drew on Iran’s economic status compared with 10 other countries in regional category (such as USA, Japan, Turkey, and France). Therefore, the study findings revealed that there is a direct relationship between GDP and labor productivity In Iran. To answer to the question 2, initially we developed a conceptual model based on theories and considered labor productivity as complex and multi-dimensional phenomenon (Economic and social dimensions) and assumed labor productivity as a function of internal (organizational) and external (environmental) factors. According to find effective factors, a questionnaire based on conceptual model designed and before evaluating the reliability and validity of questionnaire, it reviewed with 15 academic and professionals. Data collected through questionnaires that distributed to 250 managers and employees from government and non-government sectors.Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) employed, which reported significant and positive relationship between the labor productivity and driving forces such as: competitiveness, size of government sector, unemployment, corruption, social security system (external factors) and Wage/salary, work culture, employee adaptability, employee knowledge and skill, team working, performance appraisal system, career management (internal factors). Whereas, the association between labor productivity and some variables such as sex, age, post and position, sector were not supported. Eventually, challenges based on driving forces that are identified as more effective, discussed.As conclusion findings can be applied by policy makers and managers to make policies to improve labor productivity and increase economic growth rate in Iran. |
| Keywords: | labor productivity, Economic Growth, Effective Factors, Modeling, planning |
| JEL: | J24 O53 O20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iacpro:4106582&r=cwa |
| By: | Leyla Mammadova (Central Bank of Azerbaijan Republic); Aytan Mammadova (Central Bank of Azerbaijan Republic); Fuad Mammadov (Central Bank of Azerbaijan Republic); Leyla Yusifzada (Central Bank of Azerbaijan Republic) |
| Abstract: | This paper empirically evaluates determinants of depositors’ behaviour in Azerbaijan. The response of depositors to macroeconomic, alternative investment and bank specific shocks is analyzed by implementing recently developed panel time series methods that are robust to regional heterogeneity and inter-dependencies. We consider that macroeconomic and alternative investment factors are initially exogenous to the banking system and hit all banks simultaneously. Using a monthly panel dataset of Azerbaijan from January 2009 to June 2015, the paper provides new evidence regarding the importance of relationship between deposits and macroeconomic factors, specifically currency risk. The paper highlights the role of currency risk as a determinant of depositors’ behaviour and concludes that its role overshadow the importance of alternative investment and bank specific factors in Azerbaijan. Despite of wide variation in response of depositors to macroeconomic, alternative investment and bank specific shocks, overall, depositors seem more responsive to risks than previous literature have recognized. |
| Keywords: | depositors’ behaviour, macroeconomic risks, official reserves, house price, deposit interest rate |
| JEL: | G21 G28 C33 |
| Date: | 2016–05–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aze:wpaper:1603&r=cwa |
| By: | Vugar Ahmadov (Central Bank of Azerbaijan Republic); Shaig Adigozalov (Central Bank of Azerbaijan Republic); Salman Huseynov (Central Bank of Azerbaijan Republic); Fuad Mammadov (Central Bank of Azerbaijan Republic); Vugar Rahimov (Central Bank of Azerbaijan Republic) |
| Abstract: | In this study, we investigate relative performance of various non-linear models against that of an autoregressive model in forecasting future inflation. We find that non-linear models have trivial forecast superiority over the univariate autoregressive model in terms of central forecast accuracy. They also perform poorly when their forecasts are measured against those of the 3 variables VAR model. In addition, we also show that non-linear models cannot beat the random walk in terms of central forecast accuracy which is in line with the previous literature on Azerbaijan during the post-oil boom years. However, we also demonstrate that non-linear models still have clear forecast advantage over both linear and random walk models in predicting forecast density. |
| Keywords: | Forecasting, Bayesian methods, Non-linear models |
| JEL: | C11 C13 C32 C53 |
| Date: | 2016–04–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aze:wpaper:1601&r=cwa |
| By: | Mustafa Göktuğ Kaya (The Ministry of Finance, Tax Inspector Association); Perihan Hazel Kaya (Selcuk University) |
| Abstract: | With the globalization process, economic, commercial and technological boundaries have become uncertain and in this way capital transfer has been possible between different countries. Capital transfers which is realized through short term portfolio investment and foreign direct investment are very important for the countries. In this study on existence of a potential relationship between economic growth (GDP) and foreign direct investment (FDI) was examined fort he period of 2008-2015 quarterly for Turkish economy after the global financial crisis. the mentioned relationship was investigated using stationary, test, Johansen-Juselius co-entegration test, Granger causality test and variance decomposition. As a result, Granger causality test, variance decomposition showed that there exit a uni-directional causality relation running from GDP to FDI. |
| Keywords: | Foreign Direct Investment, Economic Growth, Turkish Economy, Co-Entegration Test |
| JEL: | A10 C01 E00 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iacpro:4106831&r=cwa |
| By: | Muammer Yildiz (Turkish Ministry of Education); Renan Sezer (Ankara University); Aysegul Bayraktar (Ankara University); Zeynep Akkurt Denizli (Ankara University); Necdet Guner (Pamukkale University) |
| Abstract: | Starting in 2004-2005 Turkish education system went through a reform starting with elementary school and moving up to all levels. The middle school (grades 6-8) mathematics curriculum in Turkey also changed in terms of its content, emphasis and pedagogy. This study aims to evaluate and compare the current curriculum with that used prior to 2005. Superintendents (n=47) working in Istanbul, participated in the study. Data of the study was collected through a questionnaire developed by the researchers based on related literature and experts’ opinions. The questionnaire consisted of 10 open-ended, eight multiple-choice and 31 Likert type questions.According to the study findings, 80% of the superintendents agreed that with the mathematical activities offered in the new curriculum students develop critical thinking skills. Additionally, 85% of them agreed that the said mathematical activities develop independent thinking skills. Of the superintendents 87% agreed that students engage in higher order thing skills during these activities. Only 9% of the superintendents thought that various teaching methods are being used in schools. Also 24% of the superintendents and 26% of them agree that teachers and students respectively had adopted to their new roles defined by the constructivist pedagogy. One major finding was that 18% of the superintendents agreed that the national curriculum takes the socio-economic level of students whereas that percentage was 13 with respect to the infrastructure of schools. Compared to the previous mathematics program, 47% of the superintendents thought that the new program was more successful in teaching mathematics. Furthermore 18% of the superintendents agreed that class size does not affect the applicability of the curriculum. Even though, half of the superintendents (49%) thought that teachers followed the new program’s recommendations in planning their lessons, 82% of them wrote that the most commonly used teaching method was lecturing. Thus, only 26% of them observed that the recommended teachings methods were used in classrooms. Moreover, 38% of the superintendents mentioned that teachers continued using conventional teaching methods; 15% of them voiced concern that parents, students, principals and even teachers did not truly accept the pedagogy endorsed by the new program. Though the new program puts an emphasis on use of mathematics in daily life, 19% of the superintendents found this aspect lacking in application. The findings of this study might be useful in future revisions and implementations of the national mathematics program. |
| Keywords: | Mathematics reform, superintendents, mathematics curriculum evaluation, mathematics education in Turkey |
| JEL: | I29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iacpro:4106815&r=cwa |