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on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Kamalbek Karymshakov; Burulcha Sulaimanova; Kadyrbek Sultakeev; Raziiakhan Abdieva |
| Abstract: | This research aims to investigate the impact of remittances from international migration on leftbehind youth occupational choice. Labour supply choice of youth is grouped as employee, family contributing worker, own-account worker and unemployment. Labour supply is analysed both at the extensive margin – participation of youth labour across these occupational choices, and at the intensive margins – working hours within each occupational choices. The analysis use “Life in Kyrgyz Republic” survey cross-sectional data for 2011. To overcome endogeneity concerns instrumental variable approach is used. Given the multinomial dependent variable and discrete endogenous variable “conditional mixed process” estimation technique is applied. Empirical results show that remittances impact on left-behind youth in Kyrgyzstan is mainly reflected as labour substitution effect. Unlike findings of some previous studies, we did not find any strong evidence of remittance-dependency behavior of left behind youth. However, increase of likelihood for youth as family contributing worker does not necessarily imply increase of productivity of labour force. There is no sufficient evidence of the fact that return from migration as the job creating activities and efficient utilization of remittances for own-account works exist. Moreover, female youth are more inclined to family contributing works both at the extensive and intensive margins. Results are robust to inclusion of other variables on individual characteristics. Given these empirical evidences, priority for the youth employment policy should be a channeling remittances into productive use. Moreover, educational programs with the emphasis on female youth and special programs on youth entrepreneurship and access to financial resources will be important for youth self-employment activities. |
| Keywords: | youth, employment, remittances, migration, labour supply, Kyrgyzstan. |
| JEL: | E24 F24 F22 J21 O53 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lvl:pmmacr:2016-05&r=cwa |
| By: | Alibek Konkakov (Kazakhstan Industry Development Institute); Gulaikhan Kubayeva (Economic Research Institute Kazakhstan) |
| Abstract: | Economic diversification policy is often on the agenda in developing economies. Typically, this implies the development of the manufacturing industry. It is believed that a strong manufacturing sector reduces economic volatility and contributes to the formation of the middle class. The economic history of countries such as Singapore, South Korea, Japan, where the development of the manufacturing industry was the key to the "economic miracle", confirms this thesis. |
| Date: | 2016–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msm:wpaper:2016/8&r=cwa |
| By: | Samir Balakishi (School of Sociology, Politics and International Studies (SPAIS), University of Bristol) |
| Abstract: | Russian President Putin is seeking political and especially economic alliances to reduce and counterbalance the influence of the European Union and the United States in the post-Soviet space. He is therefore determined to cement Moscow’s hegemonic status in the near abroad, particularly in the South Caucasus. In order to achieve that strategic purpose, he has created the Eurasian Economic Union, as an alternative to the EU, since the EEU is under Russia’s domination. As a result of this initiative, Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan signed an agreement to create the EEU in 2011. Then, on 29 May 2014, they assembled again in Moscow and signed a new treaty to form the EEU. This agreement became fully operational on 1 January 2015. Moscow has been pressurising Armenia, Georgia and Azerbaijan, as well as other CIS members, to join the EEU. Russia’s main interests in the South Caucasus are to control the region strategically and to inhibit or dominate the export of oil and gas from the Caspian Sea basin to the West along the Transcaucasian energy corridor to counteract the increase in recent years in relations between the South Caucasus countries and the West. Therefore, this new alliance is progressively playing an important role in Russian foreign economic policy towards Armenia, Georgia and Azerbaijan. Whilst Armenia – which has been extremely dependent economically on Russia – joined the EEU, Azerbaijan declined to do so once in the past. In Georgia, especially during Saakashvili’s period since he was a keen proponent of NATO enlargement and EU membership, the EEU has declined in popularity. Moreover, joining the EEU would undermine economic independence and prosperity in the South Caucasian countries and could also prevent the West from having access to the region. |
| Keywords: | Eurasian Economic Union; Hegemonic Stability Theory; Armenia; Azerbaijan; Georgia; Energy. |
| Date: | 2016–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msm:wpaper:2016/1&r=cwa |
| By: | Chernina, Eugenia M. (Centre for Labour Market Studies (CLMS) at Higher School of Economics, Moscow) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how the previous destination choices by household members might affect current choice by labor migrants from Tajikistan in Russia. We use 2007 and 2009 waves of Tajikistan Living Standards Survey combined with Rosstat regional statistics to analyze the effect of 2007 household migration experience and receiving regions’ characteristics on 2008-2009 migrants’ location choice within Russia. Our results suggest that there exists inertia in migrants’ choices: previously chosen destinations largely define future ones. This inertia results in quickly weakening effect of labor market conditions on migrants’ choice with migration experience. |
| Keywords: | labor migration, international migration, destination choice, location choice, Tajikistan, Russia |
| JEL: | J61 |
| Date: | 2016–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msm:wpaper:2016/3&r=cwa |
| By: | Fabio Indeo (Center for Energy Governance and Security, EGS Korea, Hanyang University, Seoul, South Korea) |
| Abstract: | In the last years, Russia and China are engaged to implement two geopolitical strategies which involves the Eurasia region, with the aim to develop the economic cooperation between East and West by means of trade and energy routes crossing Central Asia. At present, the implementation of the Eurasian Economic Union represents one of the most influent attempt to promote cooperation in the region, potentially including the creation of a supranational framework in order to upgrade the cooperation also in the political dimension (starting from the coordination of the respective national foreign policies), even if this option is strongly feared by Central Asian countries. At the same time the Chinese strategy of the Silk Road Economic Belt is an attractive project involving all Central Asian countries in a profitable energy and economic network, following the Chinese huge investments aimed to boost infrastructures and to develop national economies. Since 1991 post soviet Central Asian republics have had a different approach towards initiatives and projects of regional cooperation in the economic, political and security fields: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan have always supported and participated in regional cooperation initiatives, while Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan appear reluctant to be involved. It is evident that the implementation of these two projects - which apparently seems in competition but they could potentially merge - will have interesting repercussions on the economic relations with the EU, widening the opportunities for a lucrative East-West business, opening new trade routes and consolidating the interdependence between Eurasia region and the EU member states. Furthermore, these two geopolitical strategies will influence the political and economic evolution of Central Asian countries as well as their foreign policies. |
| Date: | 2016–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msm:wpaper:2016/5&r=cwa |
| By: | Burcu Ozcan (Department of Economics, Firat University, Elazig, Turkey); Hiranya Nath (Department of Economics and International Business, Sam Houston State University) |
| Abstract: | This study analyzes the impacts of information and communication technology (ICT) on international trade between Turkey and its trading partners. Based on an extended panel gravity model, the effects of four ICT indices on Turkish bilateral exports and imports are examined with static and dynamic panel data models for the period 2000-2014. The sample includes 35 countries that import Turkish goods and 34 countries that export goods to Turkey. The results indicate that ICT has positive and significant impacts on both Turkish import and export volumes. Additionally, ICT has a larger effect on imports than on exports. Among ICT indices, ICT access has the largest effect on exports while ICT skills have the strongest impact on imports. In contrast, ICT use has the least impact on both Turkish exports and imports. These results are robust to alternative specifications and estimation methods. Based on these results, some policy implications can be derived. For instance, Turkey may develop strategic trading partnerships with countries that have high levels of ICT endowments, in order to increase its overall trade. |
| Keywords: | : Information and Communication Technology; international trade; trade costs; gravity model; panel data models |
| JEL: | F10 F14 O30 |
| Date: | 2016–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:shs:wpaper:1609&r=cwa |
| By: | M. Královičová (University of Economics in Bratislava, Slovakia); M. Žatko (University of Economics in Bratislava, Slovakia) |
| Abstract: | At the end of 2013, the Chinese government announced its intention to create the new strategic initiative called “One Belt One Road“, which includes a significant amount of countries from the Asia, the Middle East, the Africa and the Europe, and aims at the deepening of economic and security cooperation among participating countries. Furthermore, it covers the cooperation in the infrastructure. The initiative is now gaining its real shape, with the negotiations between potential participants being held between their highest political representatives. The total number of participating countries in not yet known, however, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Turkey, Thailand, Hungary, Spain and Russia are among many other countries, which have already confirmed their participation in the initiative. If successfully carried out, the project has a huge potential to influence international business flows, not only in Asia but also within the global economy. Numerous projects that are already well under way include China's most important trading partners, namely Central Asian countries and Russia. Especially in case of Russia that is currently facing serious economic problems, it is quite uncertain whether this initiative would have positive or negative impact on its own competitiveness. While planned logistic platforms and transport corridors built in Central Asia could possibly lead to increase of mutual trade, construction of energy infrastructure projects in the same area could possibly harm Russian economy. The aim of this paper is to critically assess consequences of currently implemented projects on the Russian economy, and to look at perspectives of their further development. |
| Keywords: | China, competitiveness, Russia, Trade Complementarity Index, Central Asia |
| JEL: | F63 F42 F53 F21 |
| Date: | 2016–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msm:wpaper:2016/9&r=cwa |
| By: | Ceren Gündoğdu (Republic of Turkey Ministry of Economy 06530 Ankara, Turkey); Dürdane Şirin Saracoğlu (Department of Economics, METU) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the trends in Turkey’s participation in Global Value Chains (GVCs), particularly through backward integration (i.e. vertical specialization-VS or the foreign content of value added in exports) between 1995 and 2011 utilizing the World Input Output Database (WIOD), and this is the first attempt to adopt WIOD for analyzing VS in Turkish exports at sectoral and trade partner dimensions. The findings show that Turkey’s VS has increased between 1995 and 2011. Considering the sectoral trends in manufacturing with respect to technological classification, especially in the 2000’s, Turkey’s VS share in mid-high and high-tech sectors has increased faster than that in mid-low as well as low tech sectors. At individual partner level, Germany, China, Italy and France play important roles in VS of Turkish exports. Although Germany sustained the largest contribution to Turkey’s VS up to 2010, in 2010 China became the top contributing country; however this contribution is chiefly in a low-tech industry such as textiles, thus is not necessarily conducive to Turkey’s upgrading her position in GVCs. In that respect, integration into the GVCs through technology-intensive sectors via the technology imported from developed countries might better help improve Turkey’s position in the world markets. |
| Keywords: | Global Value Chains; Backward participation; Vertical Specialization; WIOD; Turkey |
| JEL: | F10 F13 F60 |
| Date: | 2016–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:met:wpaper:1610&r=cwa |
| By: | Meine Pieter van Dijk (Senior Project Consultant, Maastricht School of Management); Patrick Martens (Senior Project Consultant / lecturer, Maastricht School of Management) |
| Abstract: | There was never one Silk Road and there will never be one road in the one belt as suggested by the name, One Belt One Road (OBOR) initiative, chosen by the Chinese government. There will be several railroad connections between Beijing and Europe, different water ways connecting the East and the West and also different highways can be used if one would like to drive from Maastricht to Shanghai. For gas, oil, electricity and possibly in the future water, the options are still open, although a gas pipeline has almost reached Baku and an oil pipeline Atyrau, while a power line is planned to Aktau. In this contribution we focus on railways and roads between East and West and in specific what this means for one country, Georgia. We use this case study to show how large economic and political interests interfere in China's attempt to boast its economy by investing in infrastructure and improved linkages with Europe and the Middle East. It has been noted that this is an example of a Game changer. Instead of trying to compete with the US Navy in the East China Sea China opts to go West. Instead of building up the Chinese navy to be capable of surveillance in the East China Sea, the straits of Malacca and around Somalia, the East-West corridors will eventually be shorter and cheaper and achieve the same results of assuring China's supplies and selling Chinese products, without a costly trip via the Suez Canal to Europe and the Western Hemisphere. We conclude that China bets on several alternative Silk Roads and can play off countries in that game. At the same time it will be mainly Chinese industries, which would benefit from better trade regimes exporting to Europe or the United States, if they invest in countries along the Silk Road. |
| Date: | 2016–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msm:wpaper:2016/12&r=cwa |
| By: | Breyel, Corinna; Grigoriadis, Theocharis |
| Abstract: | Resource-rich dictatorships are more inclined to repress civil society than others. In this paper, we identify a tradeoff between political rents from natural resources and the organizational density of civil society. This organizational density determines the extent to which citizens can threaten the dictator with a revolution. We find that, in the occurrence of a negative oil price shock, regime change becomes likely, whereas a positive oil shock increases the extractive capacity of the dictator. When a negative oil price shock occurs, the persecution of failed revolutionaries can prevent revolution if the probability of revolutionary success is already low ex-ante. Historical and contemporary illustrations are drawn from Iran, the Soviet Union/Russia and Egypt. |
| Keywords: | natural resources,dictatorship,civil society,organizational density,persecution |
| JEL: | C73 P36 P48 P51 Q34 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fubsbe:201618&r=cwa |