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on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses Afghanistan’s Request for a Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF). The program sets out a structural reform agenda that focuses on institution building, fiscal and financial reforms, and measures to combat corruption to lay the foundations for scaled up private sector development. The envisaged reforms dovetail with Afghanistan’s National Development Framework currently being finalized. The program aims to preserve macro-financial stability by implementing prudent fiscal, monetary, and financial policies, and by maintaining external buffers and a flexible exchange rate regime. The IMF staff supports the authorities’ request for an ECF arrangement under an IMF-supported program. |
| Keywords: | Extended Credit Facility;Economic conditions;Economic growth;Corruption;Tax administration;Customs administration;Fiscal reforms;Monetary policy;Economic indicators;Letters of Intent;Staff Reports;Press releases;Extended arrangement requests;Afghanistan, Islamic Republic of; |
| Date: | 2016–07–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:16/252&r=cwa |
| By: | International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department |
| Abstract: | External shocks continue to shape both the outlook and policies. A weaker-than-expected external environment is hurting growth, straining the budget, and raising public debt and banking sector vulnerabilities. The authorities’ response to shocks has focused on exchange rate flexibility and unorthodox stimulus measures, although the budget deficit in 2015 was well within the program target. For 2016, the authorities are undertaking additional efforts to adhere to the program’s fiscal commitments. Financial sector vulnerabilities and risks are high and rising. Slow progress toward passing the Banking Law that aims to introduce a modern bank resolution system and increase the independence of the National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic remains a concern. The change in the cabinet just six months after the elections underlines the fluidity of the country’s political situation. |
| Keywords: | Extended Credit Facility;External shocks;Fiscal policy;Fiscal consolidation;Public investment;Fiscal reforms;Monetary policy;Banking sector;Economic indicators;Letters of Intent;Debt sustainability analysis;Staff Reports;Press releases;Kyrgyz Republic; |
| Date: | 2016–06–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:16/186&r=cwa |
| By: | International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses Armenia’s Third Review Under the Extended Arrangement, and Request for Waiver and Modification of Performance Criteria (PC). Growth in Armenia is expected to remain subdued as recession in Russia continues and as the base effects of the 2015 one-off factors dissipate. The program performance has been broadly satisfactory. All end-December 2015 PCs, except for the fiscal deficit PC, and all the continuous PCs were met. The fiscal deficit PC was missed by 0.3 percent of GDP. The IMF staff supports completion of the review and the authorities’ request for a purchase in an amount equivalent to SDR 15.65 million. |
| Keywords: | Extended arrangement reviews;Fiscal policy;Fiscal reforms;Monetary policy;Inflation targeting;Bank supervision;Economic indicators;Balance of payments statistics;Letters of Intent;Staff Reports;Press releases;Performance criteria modifications;Performance criteria waivers;Armenia; |
| Date: | 2016–07–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:16/246&r=cwa |
| By: | Bespalov, Sergey (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | The paper analyzes the main trends and stages of implementation of the administrative reform in the Republic of Kazakhstan from the collapse of the USSR till 2015. It wxamines issues relating to the reorganization of the central and regional management staff, the public service and its management, as well as issues of cooperation between the state structures with the business and society. |
| Keywords: | administrative reform, Kazakhstan, public service |
| Date: | 2016–06–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:1662&r=cwa |
| By: | Tamer Cetin (Yildiz Technical University); Yildirim B. Cicen (Gumushane University, Turkey); Kadir Y. Eryigit (Uludag University) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies whether institutions matter for economic performance. For this aim, we first construct a simple framework illustrating how to examine the interaction between institutions and economic performance from a different point of view. Then, using this framework, we introduce an innovative estimation approach including cutting-edge econometric techniques so-called Johansen et al. (2000) co-integration methodology with structural breaks to empirically investigate the interaction between institutions and economic performance in Turkey. Co-integration analysis finds a long-run relationship between institutions and economic performance in the presence of structural breaks. Also, the estimate of structural breaks reveals the effect of noteworthy changes in institutional structure on investments and economic growth. The findings confirm that institutions matter for economic performance in Turkey, even though the institutional quality of the country is not satisfactory. Lastly, the results suggest that approach employed in this paper is useful and convenient to empirically investigate whether institutions matter for economic performance in the study of a country-level time-series data. |
| Keywords: | Institutions, Transaction Costs, Credible Commitment, Investments, Economic Growth. |
| JEL: | D02 D23 O43 |
| Date: | 2016–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:koc:wpaper:1610&r=cwa |
| By: | Jamal Ibrahim Haidar; Seyed Hossein Mirjalili |
| Abstract: | After matching a rich micro-level Iranian customs dataset with a macro-level cross-country database on Iranian diaspora stocks, we establish that diaspora matters for dynamics of Iranian exporters. We document the extent to which Iranian emigrants foster exports through both intensive and extensive margins at the micro-level. We show that destinations with more emigrants from Iran attract more Iranian exporters and allow them to survive longer and grow faster. One plausible explanation is that the diaspora channel reduces the fixed cost of exporting that Iranian exporters incur to enter a destination, those related to creating distribution channels, and those associated with learning about market demand. Our results add firm-level insight to the burgeoning literature on the channels through which emigration could impact economic integration. As Iran is now trying to integrate more with the global economy, these results suggest that Iranian embassies across the world have a role to play in bridging the gap between Iranian diaspora and exporters through trade promotion exhibitions and workshops to encourage greater trade between Iran and the rest of the world. |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qsh:wpaper:449876&r=cwa |
| By: | Omokolade Akinsomi (School of Construction Economics and Management, University of Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa); Yener Coskun (Capital Markets Board of Turkey); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria and IPAG Business School, Paris, France) |
| Abstract: | The study examines herding behavior in Turkish REITs (T-REITs) by using daily closing prices over the period of July 2007 to May 2016. To the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first study to solely examine the herding behavior in T-REITs by utilizing Chang et al. (2000) methodology. For the three sub-periods, our results indicate herding behaviors, the presence of directional asymmetry and linear relation between volatility and herding. The evidences suggest herding is a persistent phenomenon and increases during the period of market stress. Finally, we also find transitivity in volatility periods in both with/without asymmetry term models. The research draws critical implications for portfolio managers and supervisors dealing with emerging markets and T-REITs. |
| Keywords: | REIT, herd behavior, asymmetric herding, volatility, Turkey |
| JEL: | C32 G15 G11 |
| Date: | 2016–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:201666&r=cwa |
| By: | Lisa L Kolovich; Sakina Shibuya |
| Abstract: | Gender budgeting uses fiscal policies to promote gender equality and women’s advancement, but is struggling to take hold in the Middle East and Central Asia. We provide an overview of two gender budgeting efforts in the region—Morocco and Afghanistan. Achievements in these two countries include increasing female primary and secondary education enrollment rates and reducing maternal mortality. But the region not only needs to use fiscal policies for women’s advancement, but also reform tax and financial laws, enforce laws that assure women’s safety in public, and change laws that prevent women from taking advantage of employment opportunities. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal policy;Morocco;Afghanistan;Middle East and Central Asia;Gender;Budgeting;Women's social conditions;Women's economic conditions;Cross country analysis;Gender budgeting; fiscal policy and administration; gender inequality; Middle East and Central Asia |
| Date: | 2016–07–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:16/151&r=cwa |
| By: | Svetlov, Nikolai (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA); Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS) - Central Economics and Mathematics Institute); Shishkina, Ekaterina (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | The paper presents the economic and mathematical analysis of the likely consequences of the transition to a single agri-food policy in the three countries EAEC - Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia. Use any copyrighted modification of economic-mathematical model of partial equilibrium EPACIS, which eliminates the drawbacks associated with alternative solutions and computational problems. The expediency of a conservative approach to integration processes in the EAEC, consisting in the integration of primary markets, the integration of the least prone to stress; the priority of improving the competitiveness of inefficient sectors to the integration of markets; ready to suspend the acts aimed at deepening integration, the detection of adverse effects. |
| Keywords: | agri-food policy, EAEC, economic and mathemathical analysis |
| Date: | 2016–06–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:767&r=cwa |