|
on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Selen Baser Andic |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates a normalized constant elasticity of substitution production function for Turkey using the data between 1991-2014. Employing a system approach, the elasticity of substitution, direction of the technical change and total factor productivity are determined. The results indicate that elasticity of substitution is around 0.8 and significantly below unity in Turkey. The dynamics of the technical progresses of inputs signal a slowing productivity growth in labour, and a falling productivity in capital. These findings imply that in Turkey, the average growth of the total factor productivity is very low, if not zero, and labour-augmenting technical progress is slightly dominant over time. |
| Keywords: | CES function, Elasticity of substitution, Technical change, Factor shares, Turkey |
| JEL: | C22 E23 E25 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1613&r=cwa |
| By: | Blumenstock, Joshua; Callen, Michael; Ghani, Tarek |
| Abstract: | Through a field experiment in Afghanistan, we show that default enrollment in a defined contribution plan increases saving rates by 40 percentage points, and that present-biased preferences mainly drive this effect. Working with Afghanistan's primary mobile phone operator, we designed and deployed a new mobile phone-based automatic payroll deduction system. Each of 967 employees at the firm was randomly assigned a default contribution rate (either 0% or 5%) as well as a matching incentive rate (0%, 25%, or 50%). We find that employees initially assigned a default contribution rate of 5% are 40 percentage points more likely to contribute to the account 6 months later than individuals assigned to a default contribution rate of zero; to achieve this effect through financial incentives alone would require a 50% match from the employer. We also find evidence of habit formation: default enrollment increases the likelihood that employees continue to save after end of the trial, and increases employees' self-reported interest in saving and sense of financial security. To understand the mechanism behind these effects, we conducted several experimental interventions and measured employee time preferences. Ruling out several competing explanations, we find evidence that the default effect is driven largely by present-biased preferences that cause the employee to procrastinate in making a non-default election. |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11400&r=cwa |
| By: | Rahmanov, Ramiz; Qasimov, Asif; Tahirova, Gulzar |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the development of the labor market in Azerbaijan from the early 1990s until the early 2010s. The analysis shows that the labor market has a range of positive characteristics such as high labor force participation and employment, low youth and female unemployment, flexibility, and a low share of the “working poor”, all of which can beneficially influence future economic prospects. However, the Azerbaijani labor market also experiences certain undesirable developments, such as an increase in the share of labor with primary education, a shift towards elementary occupations, a high share of self-employment, and an excess of labor cost growth over productivity growth, all of which can threaten further economic development. |
| Keywords: | labor market,labor market flexibility,employment,unemployment,labor force,Azerbaijan |
| JEL: | J21 J63 J65 P23 P31 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:142694&r=cwa |
| By: | Mahmut Gunay |
| Abstract: | [EN] In this note, we compare performance of direct and bottom-up approaches to forecasting Turkish GDP growth. In the bottom-up approach, we forecast each component separately and then aggregate these forecasts to reach GDP growth forecast. In the direct approach, we model and forecast GDP growth itself. Results indicate that bottom-up approach helps reduce forecast errors. Importance of the bottom-up approach becomes more evident when we take into account the storytelling dimension of forecasting. [TR] Bu calismada, milli gelir tahmini icin dogrudan ve dolayli yaklasimlarin performanslari karsilastirilmaktadir. Dolayli yaklasimda milli gelirin alt kalemleri ayri ayri tahmin edilip, bu tahminlerin birlestirilmesiyle milli gelir buyume tahmini olusturulmaktadir. Dogrudan yaklasimda ise milli gelir buyumesinin kendisi modellenmekte ve tahmin edilmektedir. Sonuclar, dolayli yaklasimin tahmin hatalarini azalttigini gostermektedir. Tahminlerin salt rakam sunmaktan ziyade iktisadi bir oyku anlatmak icin de kullanildigi dikkate alindiginda, daha kapsamli analiz yapmaya imkan veren dolayli yaklasimin onemi belirginlesmektedir. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1622&r=cwa |
| By: | Yavuz Arslan; Gazi Kabas; Ahmet Ali Taskin |
| Abstract: | We examine the effect of loan-to-value restriction on automobile loans using primary market car sales in Turkey. We identify the effect of the policy using the specific nature of the regulation that imposes higher downpayment restriction for automobile loans with higher prices. We observe that the drop in automobile sales growth is higher for more expensive cars net of other controlled factors. |
| Keywords: | Macroprudential policy, Loan-to-value policy, Automobile loans, Car sales |
| JEL: | G21 G28 E44 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1535&r=cwa |
| By: | Eda Karademir (Erzurum Technical University, Department of Philosophy); Alper Karademir (Aksaray University, Department of Politics and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The issue of child labour can be encountered in almost every country. However, the issue currently has been growing particularly in developing countries. In relation to this subject, not only governments but also supranational organizations such as the ILO, UNICEF and EU take place in order to eliminate child labour. Even sometimes, projects are developed so as to be implemented by various countries and governments are orientated for the implementation of these projects, financial support and/or every so often qualified experts are provided, some countries are forced through a variety of sanctions in order to solve the problem by these organizations. At this point, the status of a candidate country to the European Union Turkey emerges as a striking example. Besides, Turkey is determined for this work because ILO's and IPEC program implemented in Turkey from 1990 to 2007. In addition, the example of Turkey is selected to examine the issue since the period of compulsory education was increased from 5 years to 8 years by changing the education policy of compulsory education in 1997. Furthermore, the period of compulsory education has been gradually increased to 12 years in 2013 in Turkey. However, this is outside of this paper since data is provided as quinquennially, thus, working data is not available to approach to the issue. This may be considered in another study. According to literature and ILO's reports, education policies should be intended for reducing child labour. Education policies such as starting primary education at a certain age and the continuum of this education performed by governments have been accepted as precautions aimed at reducing child labour. The aim of this paper is to elucidate whether this increased period of compulsory education can be one of the main element to eliminate child labour. In this context, the general conditions of child labour will be evaluated in this work by comparing the period 1994 that is before the increase compulsory education from 5 years to 8 years and observed data after this changed education policy. As methodology, secondary data obtained from previous statistical and published reports is used. Gaining a new source of literature in this field is attempted by using the example of Turkey. Consequently, the effect of the increased period of compulsory education will be investigated to reduce child labour by analysing results. In this context, also encountered problems and solutions to these problems will be presented. |
| Keywords: | Education policy, Compulsory education, the Child Labour Issue, Turkey |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:itepro:3906487&r=cwa |
| By: | Vuslat Us |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the effect of the global crisis on the determinants of non-performing loans in the Turkish banking sector by using dynamic panel estimation techniques. Empirical findings suggest that non-performing loans present persistence, which is more evident after the crisis, while other regressors have also persistent effects in the post-crisis period. Moreover, non-performing loans are mostly shaped by bank-specific variables before the crisis, whereas, after the crisis, non-performing loans are also driven by macroeconomic and policy-related variables. In particular, the post-crisis significance of GDP, policy rate and sovereign debt shows that robust economic activity, tight monetary policy and strong fiscal balances restrict non-performing loans, thereby enhancing financial stability. On the other hand, the significance of inflation in both sub-periods indicates that commitment to price stability objective is indispensable for limiting non-performing loans and promoting financial stability. In the period ahead, the speed and the direction of normalization in global monetary policies may determine the course of financial conditions, which therefore have implications regarding non-performing loan dynamics and financial stability. |
| Keywords: | Global crisis, Non-performing loans, Turkish banking sector, Dynamic panel estimation, Persistence, Financial stability, Price stability, Normalization |
| JEL: | C23 E44 E52 G10 G21 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1612&r=cwa |
| By: | Timur Hulagu; Erdi Kizilkaya; Ali Gencay Ozbekler; Pinar Tunar |
| Abstract: | In the 2010Q1-2015Q1 period, housing prices increased 78.8 percent in Turkey, which raises a need to monitor the housing market dynamics carefully. This increase is widespread across the country where prices have even doubled in some regions. Our study performs a hedonic price adjustment for the housing market in Turkey, where we control for the price effects of improvements in observed house characteristics in time. Results show significant increases in the quality of houses sold, which in turn suggests that attributing all the price increase to a real appreciation may be misleading. In particular, we estimate that one fourth of nominal changes and one half of relative changes in house prices stem from quality improvements in general. |
| Keywords: | House price index, Hedonic regression, Characteristic price approach, Quality adjusted price index |
| JEL: | C32 C43 R31 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1603&r=cwa |
| By: | Sue Wing,Ian Newel James; Timilsina,Govinda R. |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the potential for developing countries to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions without slowing their expected economic growth. A theoretical frame- work is developed that unifies bottom-up marginal abatement cost curves and partial equilibrium techno-economic simulation modeling with computational general equilibrium (CGE) modeling. The framework is then applied to engineering assessments of energy efficiency technology deployments in Armenia and Georgia. The results facilitate incorporation of bottom-up technology detail on energy-efficiency improvements into a CGE simulation of the economy-wide economic costs and mitigation benefits of technology deployment policies. Low-carbon growth trajectories are feasible in both countries, enabling reductions of up to 4 percent of baseline emissions while generating slight increases in GDP (1 percent in Armenia and 0.2 percent in Georgia). The results demonstrate how MAC curves can paint a misleading picture of the true potential for both abatement and economic growth when technological improvements operate within a system of general equilibrium interactions, but also highlight how using their underlying data to identify technology options with high opportunity cost elasticities of productivity improvement can lead to more accurate assessments of the macroeconomic consequences of technology strategies for low-carbon growth. |
| Date: | 2016–07–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7742&r=cwa |
| By: | Markus Brueckner; Birgit Hansl |
| Abstract: | Between the end of the 1990s and the first decade of the 2000s Russia experienced significant growth in GDP per capita that was driven by transitional convergence, structural reforms, and improvements in the terms of trade. Reforms to the structure of the economy boosted growth by over 2 percentage points per annum with improvements in telecommunication infrastructure, financial development, and a reduction in the GDP share of government consumption being the most important structural reforms. The paper discusses Russia’s growth performance relative to comparator countries: countries in the European and Central Asia regions, advanced natural resource exporting countries and the BRICS countries. Economic growth was significantly lifted in advanced natural resource exporting countries due to the international commodity price boom, for example, in Russia improvements in the terms of trade lifted growth by over 1 percentage point per annum. In the group of advanced natural resource exporting countries and BRICS countries, Russia is at the forefront in terms of growth benefits arising from structural reforms. |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2016-42&r=cwa |
| By: | Ibrahim Ethem Guney; Oguzhan Cepni |
| Abstract: | [EN] There is a long discussion among academics and central bankers about the theories of money supply. According to the exogenous view, central banks have full control over money supply via policy actions including the adjustments of interest rates and reserve ratios, both of which alter commercial banks’ lending decisions. However, the theory of endogenous money supply emphasizes the role of demand for bank loans in money creation. More specifically, banks create money by meeting the demand of economic agents. In this study, we investigate which of the money supply theories holds in the Turkish economy for the period 2006-2015 by employing cointegration and causality tests. Our findings show that the relation runs from bank loans to money supply both in the short and long terms, which supports the endogenous view in a sense that central bank and the banks fully meet the total demand for money in the Turkish economy. [TR] Akademisyenler ve merkez bankacilari icinde para arzi teorileri ile ilgili uzun suredir devam eden bir tartisma bulunmaktadir. Dissal bakis acisina gore, merkez bankalari ticari bankalarin borc verme kararlari uzerinde etkili olan faiz ve rezerv oranindaki degisiklikleri iceren politika adimlari ile para arzi uzerinde tam kontrole sahiptir. Ancak, para arzinin icselligi teorisi para olusturmada banka kredilerine olan talebin rolunu vurgulamaktadir. Diger bir deyisle, bankalar iktisadi ajanlarin taleplerini karsilayarak para olusturmaktadir. Bu calismada, esbutunlesme ve nedensellik testleri kullanilarak 2006-2015 yillarý arasinda Turkiye ekonomisi icin hangi para arzi teorisinin gecerli oldugu incelenmektedir. Bulgularimiz, hem kisa hem de uzun vadelerde nedenselligin banka kredilerinden para arzina dogru oldugunu gosterdiginden, Turkiye ekonomisinde Merkez Bankasi ve bankalarin toplam para talebini karsiladigi ve para arzinin icsel oldugu goruslerini desteklemektedir. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1619&r=cwa |
| By: | Kurmas Akdogan; Neslihan Kaya Eksi; Ozan Eksi |
| Abstract: | We disentangle the cross-border capital flows into demand-pull and supply-push components for four selected emerging markets : Brazil, Indonesia, Malaysia and Turkey. We employ vector autoregressions with sign restrictions method, using two variables: noncore liabilities of banks and the money market rates. Demand shocks are defined as those that move these two variables in the same direction and supply shocks as those that move them in opposite directions. Our results imply that, in the wake of the global financial crisis, worsening demand conditions in the recipient countries and the high levels of uncertainty were the main determinants of the decline in cross border flows. However, once the unconventional policy measures by the advanced economies were put into effect, the proliferation of global liquidity worked as a push factor for cross border flows. |
| Keywords: | Financial stability, Capital flows, Non-core liabilities, Sign restrictions |
| JEL: | C32 E44 G21 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1615&r=cwa |
| By: | Tugrul Gurgur; Zubeyir Kilinc |
| Abstract: | Both the empirical and theoretical literature examines the significance of ‘willingness to buy’ channel in household’s consumption decision. It suggests that the consumer confidence might carry valuable information to robustly predict consumption. It also emphasizes its power while explaining consumption particularly in times of high economic and political uncertainty. In this study we initially examine the drivers of the consumer confidence in a major developing economy, namely Turkey. We show that consumer prices, exchange rate, interest rates on consumer loans and unemployment rate are the major drivers of the confidence. We then find that consumers are asymmetric in their responses to the changes in these variables. In particular, our results show that the consumer confidence is more responsive to currency depreciation than currency appreciation and more responsive to slowdown in inflation than acceleration in inflation. Besides, the relative importance of macroeconomic and financial variables in shaping the consumer confidence is not stable as the latter gains more weight when financial volatility rises. Finally, we show that political uncertainty, such as elections have an important influence over the consumer confidence that goes beyond their impact on macroeconomic and financial variables. |
| Keywords: | Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model Consumer Confidence, Error Correction Model, Pesaran Bounds Testing, Structural Break Test and Turkey |
| JEL: | C22 C52 D12 E21 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1538&r=cwa |
| By: | Cevriye Aysoy; Duygu Halim Kirli; Semih Tumen |
| Abstract: | The market for fresh food is often characterized by a large number of intermediaries delivering the product from the farmer to the retailer. The existence of these intermediaries, especially the informal ones, is often claimed to introduce market frictions that push fresh food prices up. We test the hypothesis that scaling down these frictions reduces the level of prices. Our data come from a policy reform in Turkey concerning the supply chain regulations in the market for fresh fruits and vegetables. Starting from January 1st, 2012, a new law is enacted (i) to remove informal intermediaries, (ii) to reduce the farmers' cost of access to formal intermediaries such as wholesale market places, and (iii) to provide the farmers with the option to directly sell their products to retailers—bypassing the wholesale intermediaries. This policy reform resembles a natural experiment that exogenously reduces the supply chain barriers in the market for fresh fruits and vegetables. Using quasi-experimental methods, we show that the policy reform has strikingly reduced the prices in the wholesale market. We also provide some rough evidence that there is no price effect in the retail market, which suggests that part of the wholesale markups may have been transferred to the retailers. Taken at face value, these results provide some hints that consumers have not received any direct benefits from the reform—ignoring the general equilibrium effects. |
| Keywords: | Supply chain reform, Fresh food prices, Incomplete pass-through, Quasi-experimental design. |
| JEL: | C21 L52 Q11 Q18 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1528&r=cwa |
| By: | Binnur Balkan Konuk; Semih Tumen |
| Abstract: | We exploit the regional variation in the unexpected (or forced) inflow of Syrian refugees as a natural experiment to estimate the impact of immigration on consumer prices in Turkey. Using a difference-in-differences strategy and a comprehensive data set on the regional prices of CPI items, we find that general level of consumer prices has declined by approximately 2.5 percent due to immigration. Prices of goods and services have declined in similar magnitudes. We highlight that the channel through which the price declines take place is the informal labor market. Syrian refugees supply inexpensive informal labor and, thus, substitute the informal native workers especially in informal labor intensive sectors. We document that prices in these sectors have fallen by around 4 percent, while the prices in the formal labor intensive sectors have almost remained unchanged. Increase in the supply of informal immigrant workers generates labor cost advantages and keeps prices lower in the informal labor intensive sectors. |
| Keywords: | Immigration, Consumer prices, Syrian refugees, Natural experiment, Informal employment |
| JEL: | C21 E31 J46 J61 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1601&r=cwa |
| By: | Hatice Burcu Gurcihan Yunculer; Caglar Yunculer |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the impact of minimum wages on the labor market outcomes in Turkey using the sizable minimum wage increase in 2004. Utilizing a quasi-experimental approach we provide new evidence from a developing country where the minimum wage is binding to a great extent. The increase took place in a period of strong economic growth and cost to the employer was partially subsidized by the government. Our results suggest that minimum wage increase of 2004 compressed the wage distribution from below. Using degree of impact measures we estimate that a 1 percent surge in the minimum wage increased wages by an extra 0.22-0.35 percent. Wage response was lower for informally working, low educated and young employees. Higher minimum wage was accompanied by an increase in the likelihood of informal employment. The minimum wage increase did raise working hours, suggesting that firms may have tried to offset part of the increase in the labor cost by increasing employment at the intensive margin. Estimations do not point out to an adverse impact for the overall employment. But due to data limitations results on employment are less robust. Furthermore, looking at the impact of minimum wages on the formal and informal divide, our results do not support the predictions of the dual market hypothesis on wages. We observe wage increase not only for the formal but also for the informal employees pointing out to the presence of a "lighthouse" effect previously documented for some other developing countries. |
| Keywords: | Minimum wage, Turkey, Difference in differences, Informality |
| JEL: | J31 J42 R23 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1614&r=cwa |
| By: | Ayse Eliusuk (Konya Necmettin Erbakan Universty Education Faculty) |
| Abstract: | Seligman’s “well-being measure†called PERMA is a measure that lays off five components of a person’s level of being well. It was developed by Kern (2015). The measurement evaluates people’s level of well-being in five dimensions: They are as follows: (P: Positive and Negative emotions), (E: Engagement), (R: Relationships), (M: Meaning), (A: Accomplishment). The measurement consists of 23 articles. There is a ranging of grades from 0 to 10. The coefficiency of internal consistency of the measurement is .82.The measurement of PERMA was applied on a group of university students. Some translation texts (from English to Turkish/from Turkish to English) were given to the students in the department of ELT and was intended to find out the meaningful positive corelations between low and high points (r=.95, p |
| Keywords: | Well-being, positive ve negative emotions, engagement, relationships, meaning and accomplishment, the measurement of well-being, reliability and validity |
| JEL: | I30 I30 I30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:itepro:3906546&r=cwa |
| By: | Doruk Kucuksarac; Murat Duran |
| Abstract: | [EN] The credit rating agencies have been criticized after the global financial crisis over their rating procedure and their inability to foresee the financial crisis. Another criticism against the credit rating agencies has been the possibility of a negative bias towards emerging countries. In that sense, this study explores the determinants of credit ratings for developed and emerging countries separately and attempts to find out whether the effects of the determinants differ across developed and emerging countries using pooled panel regressions. In addition, the study aims to figure out whether there is a bias against emerging countries. The results indicate that GDP growth, government debt, GDP volatility and inflation volatility matters the most for developed countries, given the level of economic development and the homogeneity of financial indicators across these countries. When it comes to the emerging countries effects of inflation, government debt, financial depth and GDP per capita are considerably higher. Additionally, emerging countries on average, receive 1.4 steps lower credit ratings than developed countries with similar macroeconomic indicators. When the same analysis is done using credit default swap (CDS) premiums as the dependent variable, to control for the model errors, the bias against emerging countries disappears. [TR] Kredi derecelendirme kuruluslari kuresel kriz sonrasi donemde, derecelendirme metotlari ve krizleri ongormedeki yetersizlikleri ile elestirilmektedir. Bir diger elestiri ise, bu kuruluslarin gelismekte olan ulkelere yonelik olumsuz yanliligina dairdir. Bu bakimdan, bu not panel regresyon modelleri kullanarak gelismis ve gelismekte olan ulke kredi derecelerinin belirleyicilerini ve soz konusu belirleyicilerin gelismis ve gelismekte olan ulkeler icin farklilasip farklilasmadigini incelemektedir. Ayrica, not gelismekte olan ulkelere karsi negatif bir yanlilik olup olmadigini da test etmektedir. Sonuclar, gelismis ulkeler icin GSYH buyumesi, kamu borcu, GSYH buyume oynakligi ve enflasyon oynakliginin gelismis ulkeler arasinda daha belirleyici oldugunu gostermektedir. Bu durumda, ekonomik gelismislik ve finansal derinlik gibi degiskenler gelismis ulkeler icin goreli olarak birbirine yakin seviyelerde olmasinin etkili oldugu dusunulmektedir. Gelismekte olan ulkeler icin ise, enflasyon, kamu borcu, finansal derinlik ve kisi basi gelir seviyesinin kredi derecesi uzerinde etkili oldugu bulunmustur. Ek olarak, sonuclar gelismekte olan ulkelerin benzer ekonomik temellere sahip gelismis ulkelere gore ortalama 1,4 basamak daha dusuk kredi derecesi aldiklarini ortaya koymaktadir. Ayni modeller, model hatalarini kontrol etmek amaciyla piyasa bazli bir risk primi gostergesi olan CDS primleri uzerine de uygulanmistir. Analiz tekrarlandiginda, gelismis ulkelere yonelik negatif yanliligin ortadan kalktigi gozlenmektedir. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1609&r=cwa |
| By: | Ihsan Bozok; Bahar Sen Dogan; Caglar Yunculer |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we employ panel time-series methods Dynamic OLS, Mean Group and Common Correlated Effects Mean Group to estimate the long-run price and income elasticities of Turkish exports to country groups categorized by geographical regions (EU27, other European countries, Asia, Middle East and North Africa (MENA)) and development levels (developed and developing). In doing so, we use bilateral trade data of Turkey with 67 countries over the period 2005Q1-2013Q4. We find that price and income elasticities vary across country groups. Income elasticity estimates are statistically significant in every country group classification and range between 1.82 and 3.35. Exports to the EU27, other European and the developed countries have higher income responsiveness. On the other hand, price elasticity ranges between -1.56 and -0.27 and is found statistically significant only in exports to the EU27, the MENA and the developing countries. Empirical results imply that region-specific measures have to be taken in trade policy design. In addition, policies based on real exchange rate depreciation would have fewer roles in boosting exports, whereas sustainable growth in trading partners is a more crucial factor to achieve sustainable growth in Turkish exports. |
| Keywords: | Panel data, Time-Series, Elasticity, Cross-Dependence, Mean group estimation, Common correlated effects |
| JEL: | C23 F14 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1526&r=cwa |
| By: | Bahar Sen Dogan; Murat Midilic |
| Abstract: | This study generates nowcasts and forecasts for the growth rate of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Turkey using 204 daily financial series with Mixed Data Sampling (MIDAS) framework over the period 2010Q2-2015Q1. Our findings suggest that MIDAS regression models and forecast combinations provide advantage in exploiting information from daily financial data compared to the models using simple aggregation schemes. In addition, incorporating daily financial data into the analysis improves our forecasts substantially. These results indicate that both the information content of the financial data and the flexible data-driven weighting scheme of MIDAS regressions play an essential role in forecasting the future state of the Turkish economy. |
| Keywords: | Real GDP Growth, Forecasting, MIDAS |
| JEL: | C22 C53 G10 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1611&r=cwa |
| By: | Babili, Mahmoud; Al Somaya, Khitam; Badro, Bashar |
| Abstract: | This study deals with the economic factors contributing to the promotion of Syria’s tomato exports. These factors actually increase its competitiveness in international markets, particularly Iraqi and Russian. The research was conducted given the significant importance of tomato, compared to other agricultural exports, where tomato ranked first among Syrian agricultural exports in 2011 and 2012. In addition, the study focuses on the indicators of the international demand of Syrian tomato, as well as the main difficulties and challenges that face tomato exportation. The study of Composite Competitiveness Indicator (CCI), enabled us to draw several important results, which have multiple policy implications. |
| Keywords: | Composite Competitiveness Indicator, Syria, Tomato, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Marketing, |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:napcwp:241340&r=cwa |
| By: | Yavuz Arslan; Yunus Emrah Bulut; Tayyar Buyukbasaran; Gazi Kabas |
| Abstract: | With a novel dataset of over two thousand firms covering 2006-2012 period, this study examines liquidity management of non-financial firms in Turkey. We find the following results: First, cash holdings and lines of credits are complementary if the profits are low or cash holdings are small, while they become substitutes if profits are high or cash holdings are large. Second, firms with more available funds (cash plus unused credit lines) invest more than the others; moreover, given the same amount of available funds, those firms which hold more cash make more investment. Third, firms with small cash holdings prefer unused credit lines to cash when they get more profitable; whereas firms with large cash holdings prefer cash to unused credit lines when they get more profitable. Fourth, we find evidence of nonlinearities regarding the determinants of cash holdings and credit limits. Finally, our analysis also includes the effects of aggregate financial uncertainty on liquidity management, and it discriminates between holdings of local currency denominated and foreign currency denominated credit limits. Our study is the first one to examine liquidity management of firms in an emerging economy, and bears some critical differences with the findings of earlier studies. |
| Keywords: | Credit Lines, Cash holdings, Liquidity Management |
| JEL: | G31 G32 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1604&r=cwa |
| By: | Mahmut Gunay |
| Abstract: | [EN] This note evaluates the forecast performance of the financial variables and confidence indicators for four quarter ahead cumulative growth of Turkish GDP. Our results point out that some indicators can help reduce forecast errors relative to a benchmark, but forecast performance of the variables may change over time. Combining forecasts with equal weight or based on the recent performance does not lead to a significant difference in forecast performance. [TR] Bu calismada Turkiye ekonomisi icin finansal degiskenler ile guven endekslerinin dort ceyrek birikimli GSYIH buyumesi tahmin performanslari degerlendirilmistir. Sonuclar, incelenen degiskenlerin bazilarinin baz bir modele gore tahmin hatalarini dusurdugunu ancak tahmin performansinin zaman icinde degisebildiðini gostermektedir. Tahmin birlestirmesi icin tahminlerin esit agirliklandirilmasi ile son donem performanslarina gore agirliklandirilmasi arasinda onemli bir fark gorulmemistir. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1614&r=cwa |
| By: | Ramazan Karasahin; Doruk Kucuksarac |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the determinants of capital structure of non-financial public firms quoted in Borsa Istanbul. We explore the effects of firm-specific, industry-specific and macroeconomic variables on book and market leverages by employing panel data. In addition, we study the effects of these variables on short-term and long-term leverage ratios. The results indicate that firm-specific factors have similar effects on both book and market leverage ratios except the effect of growth opportunity. The size of a firm is positively associated with its leverage ratio, particularly with long-term leverage ratio. Tangibility is negatively related to the short-term leverage ratio whereas it is positively related to the long-term leverage ratio. Profitability and liquidity have negative effects on leverage, particularly on short-term leverage ratio. It is also observed that the firms tend to follow their peers in their capital structure decisions. The effect of macroeconomic variables is somewhat more ambiguous. There seems to be positive association between inflation and leverage. On the other hand, firm leverage and economic growth are negatively related. Lastly, recursive panel regression methods show that the evolution of the parameter estimates are stable over time. |
| Keywords: | Leverage, Capital structure, Nonfinancal firms |
| JEL: | G32 G30 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1609&r=cwa |
| By: | Ozgur Ozel; Mustafa Utku Ozmen; Erdal Yilmaz |
| Abstract: | Global financial markets have experienced a liquidity glut since the beginning of the new millennium especially in the aftermath of the 2008-2009 global financial crisis. In this era, the flow of foreign funds to emerging markets have elevated, somewhat more to Turkey. This flow increased foreign investor holdings in emerging markets. This study puts forward the increased share of foreign investors as a potential stabilizer for local financial markets, because domestic investors’ weak absorption capacity may create liquidity constraints acting as an obstacle for foreign outflows. In order to pin down the effect of foreign investor dominance, we present empirical evidence from a detailed stock-ownership data. The detailed micro level data not only helps us unveil the behavior of foreign investors, but also helps us to discuss macroeconomic implications of their micro level decisions. In addition, given that the foreigner’s recent share in Turkish equity market is considerably high both from an historical viewpoint and from a cross section comparison with other emerging markets, the conclusions we reach regarding the market stabilization effect of foreigner share are unique. Overall, in an emerging market with high foreign ownership and low domestic absorption capacity at play, capital outflows might be staggered, rather than sudden. |
| Keywords: | Capital outflows, Staggered adjustment, Liquidity constraint, Absorption capacity, Foreigner effect |
| JEL: | C58 E44 F32 G11 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1531&r=cwa |
| By: | Tunc, Cengiz; Kılınç, Mustafa |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we look at the sector-level asymmetric effects of the monetary policy shocks on economic activity in Turkey. Using business cycles for the state of the economy, we find that monetary policy shocks have strong effects on both aggregate GDP, services and industrial production and sub-sectors during recessionary periods. The results are weaker for the expansionary periods. We further study whether the results depend on the state of the credit cycles. Similar results emerge in that the monetary policy is more effective during credit slowdowns with economically more feasible quantitative effects compared to the business cycles. |
| Keywords: | Monetary Policy Transmission, Markov Switching Models, Business Cycles, Credit Cycles. |
| JEL: | E32 E44 E52 |
| Date: | 2016–02–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72688&r=cwa |