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on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Aysit Tansel (Department of Economics, Middle East Technical University, IZA Bonn, and ERF Cairo); Deniz Karaoglan (Department of Economics, Middle East Technical University) |
| Abstract: | This study provides causal effect of education on health behaviors in Turkey which is a middle income developing country. Health Survey of the Turkish Statistical Institute for the years 2008, 2010 and 2012 are used. The health behaviors considered are smoking, alcohol consumption, fruit and vegetable consumption, exercising and one health outcome namely, the body mass index (BMI). We examine the causal effect of education on these health behaviors and the BMI Instrumental variable approach is used in order to address the endogeneity of education to health behaviors. Educational expansion of the early 1960s is used as the source of exogenous variation in years of schooling. Our main findings are as follows. Education does not significantly affect the probability of smoking or exercising. The higher the education level the higher the probability of alcohol consumption and the probability of fruit and vegetable consumption. Higher levels of education lead to higher BMI levels. This study provides a baseline for further research on the various aspects of health behaviors in Turkey. |
| Keywords: | Turkey, Health Behaviors, Education, Instrumental Variable Estimation |
| JEL: | I10 I12 I19 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:koc:wpaper:1606&r=cwa |
| By: | Nurmakhanova Mira |
| Abstract: | CIS countries possess extensive natural resources and rely heavily on revenues from primary commodity exports, in particular petroleum and natural gas. We use Kazakhstan’s dependence on revenues from the oil sector to demonstrate commodity producer vulnerability to external commodity price fluctuations. The goal of this paper is to examine the nature of the relationship between real GDP, fiscal revenues, real exchange rate, price level, and oil prices. We employ Bayesian approach to time series data for the period 2000–2015. We find evidence of significant effect of oil prices on Kazakhstani economy where one of the key channels playing a role in the effect of oil prices on real activity is related to the real effective exchange rate. Additionally, results of this research indicate that one possible channel for oil price shocks to affect the real exchange rate is through the upward pressure on domestic price level. |
| JEL: | E58 F31 F43 Q4 |
| Date: | 2016–06–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eer:wpalle:16/06e&r=cwa |
| By: | Ozlem Celik (Middle East Technical University (METU), Department of Political Science and Public Administration); Aylin Topal (Middle East Technical University (METU), Department of Political Science and Public Administration); Galip Yalman (Middle East Technical University (METU), Department of Political Science and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | This paper outlines a theorisation of the systems of provision approach (sop) and illustrates the relation between financialisation and housing by applying the sop framework in the case of Istanbul. The interest of different segments of capitalist interests in urban space has been gradually growing in Turkey, and in Istanbul particularly over the last decade, with a special emphasis on the construction sector in general and housing, in particular. The housing provision in Istanbul has been changing in terms of the role of the state, the expansion and increase in construction sector in relation to the integration to global capitalism, moments of resistance in different neighbourhoods against gentrification, the expectations of consumers from different classes, and the changing role of labour. The paper shows that the role and impact of finance and financialisation is evident in the case of Istanbul in terms of revealing the tensions, conflicts and congruencies among different developers, different classes, between the state, developers and consumers. |
| Date: | 2016–04–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fes:wpaper:wpaper152&r=cwa |
| By: | Moldokanov Daniiar |
| Abstract: | The paper analyses the total public debt of the Kyrgyz Republic in terms of solvency criterion. The recent development of total public debt to GDP ratios, as well as sharp increase of fiscal deficit, increases the attention of international investors to the issue of total public debt sustainability of the Kyrgyz Republic. Different methodologies in order to assess whether the country satisfies solvency criterion of the sustainability was implemented including the debt stabilizing primary balance over/under-borrowing test and the stress test. The main finding of the paper is that the total public debt to GDP ratio in the Kyrgyz Republic is under the moderate risk of debt distress. |
| JEL: | H63 |
| Date: | 2016–04–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eer:wpalle:16/04e&r=cwa |
| By: | Balkan, Binnur (Central Bank of Turkey); Baskaya, Yusuf Soner (Central Bank of Turkey); Tumen, Semih (Central Bank of Turkey) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the employment effects of a targeted subsidy scheme implemented in Turkey following the 2008 crisis. The Turkish government started a subsidy program in 2008 to generate new employment for younger men and all women, which are the relatively disadvantaged groups in the Turkish labor markets. The program puts men of age 18-29 and all women into the treatment group, while men of age 30 and above are placed into the control group. We use a nationally representative micro-level dataset and a difference-in-differences approach to estimate the causal effect of this program. On aggregate, the subsidy program seems to be ineffective in increasing the employment probabilities of those individuals in the target group. However, when heterogeneity is accounted for by dividing the treatment group into several sub-groups, we observe that the program has been notably effective on some of those sub-groups. In particular, the increase in employment probability is high for older women, while a weaker positive effect is observed for younger women and almost no effect is detected for younger men. The effect on older women is subject to further heterogeneity: the program has increased the employment probabilities of low-educated and/or low-skill older women rather than the high-educated and/or high-skill ones. |
| Keywords: | employment subsidies, treatment effects, difference-in-differences, Turkish micro data |
| JEL: | C21 H24 J21 J68 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9993&r=cwa |
| By: | Torun, Huzeyfe (Central Bank of Turkey); Tumen, Semih (Central Bank of Turkey) |
| Abstract: | Based on a law enacted in November 1999, males born on or before December 31st 1972 are given the option to benefit from a paid exemption from compulsory military service in Turkey. Exploiting this natural experiment, we devise an empirical strategy to estimate the intention-to-treat effect of this paid exemption on education and labor market outcomes of the individuals in the target group. We find that the paid exemption reform reduces the years of schooling among males who are eligible to benefit from the reform relative to the ineligible males. In particular, the probability of receiving a college degree or above falls among the eligible males. The result is robust to alternative estimation strategies. We find no reduction in education when we implement the same exercises with (i) data on females and (ii) placebo reform dates. The interpretation is that the reform has reduced the incentives to continue education for the purpose of deferring military service. We also find suggestive evidence that the paid exemption reform reduces the labor income for males in the target group. The reduction in earnings is likely due to the reduction in education. It should be noted, however, that due to the characteristics of the population on the treatment margin, the external validity of these results should be assessed cautiously. |
| Keywords: | compulsory military service, draft avoidance, intention to treat, education, earnings |
| JEL: | C21 I21 I26 J21 J31 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10004&r=cwa |
| By: | Mammadova, Aytan; Mammadova, Leyla; Mammadov, Fuad; Yusifzade, Leyla |
| Abstract: | This paper empirically evaluates determinants of depositors’ behaviour in Azerbaijan. The response of depositors to macroeconomic, alternative investment and bank specific shocks is analysed by implementing recently developed panel time series methods that are robust to regional heterogeneity and inter-dependencies. We consider that macroeconomic and alternative investment factors are initially exogenous to the banking system and hit all banks simultaneously. Using a monthly panel dataset of Azerbaijan from January 2009 to June 2015, the paper provides new evidence regarding the importance of relationship between deposits and macroeconomic factors, specifically currency risk. The paper highlights the role of currency risk, as a determinant of depositors’ behaviour and conclude that its role overshadow the importance of alternative investment and bank specific factors in Azerbaijan. Despite of wide variation in response of depositors to macroeconomic, alternative investment and bank specific shocks, overall, depositors seem more responsive to risks than previous literature have recognized. |
| Keywords: | depositors’ behavior, macroeconomic risks, devaluation, official reserves, house price, deposit interest rate |
| JEL: | C33 G21 G28 |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72159&r=cwa |
| By: | Embaye, Weldensie; Bergtold, Jason; Schwab, Ben; Shanoyan, Aleksan |
| Keywords: | Farm Management, Labor and Human Capital, |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:239230&r=cwa |
| By: | Adil Khan Miankhel (Embassy of Pakistan) |
| Abstract: | Along with other routes, the Afghanistan-Pakistan Transit Trade Agreement (APTTA) is being used by informal traders for smuggling goods into Pakistan. Despite enforcement measures, smuggling continues. Informal traders import goods into Afghanistan, and then route those goods back to Pakistan through informal channels to take advantage from the arbitrage opportunity provided by the differences in applied tariff/taxes between the two countries. Therefore, in addition to strict enforcement measures, the issue of informal trade needs to be handled through incentive measures. |
| JEL: | F13 O24 O19 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eab:govern:25650&r=cwa |