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on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Alessia Lo Turco (Università Politecnica delle Marche, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali); Daniela MAGGIONI (Università di Catania, Department of Political Sciences) |
| Abstract: | Using a rich firm level data set for Turkish manufacturing, we test whether the sharing of similar religious beliefs with potential contracting parties drives a firm.s first time entry in export markets. We exploit variation in the practice of Islam across Turkish provinces andwe find that firms located in provinces characterised by stronger religiousness are more likely to enter export destinations with a higher share ofMuslims among their population. This result is robust to the control for trade, cultural and migration ties, reverse causality and to several further sensitivity checks. Religious proximity, in particular, eases export entry for producers of "trust intensive" goods and mitigates the role of export experience in subsequent foreign market entries. All in all, our evidence hints at the important role of religious proximity in reducing export entry sunk costs by fostering higher trust among contracting parties. |
| Keywords: | Islam, export entry, uncertainty, cultural distance |
| JEL: | F14 F11 D22 D80 N30 |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:anc:wpaper:418&r=cwa |
| By: | Modugno, Michele; Soybilgen, Baris; Yazgan, M. Ege |
| Abstract: | Real gross domestic product (GDP) data in Turkey are released with a very long delay compared with other economies, between 10 and 13 weeks after the end of the reference quarter. To infer the current state of the economy, policy makers, media, and market practitioners examine data that are more timely, that are released at higher frequencies than the GDP. In this paper, we propose an econometric model that automatically allows us to read through these more current and higher-frequency data and translate them into nowcasts for the Turkish real GDP. Our model outperforms nowcasts produced by the Central Bank of Turkey, the International Monetary Fund, and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. Moreover, our model allows us to quantify the importance of each variable in our dataset in nowcasting Turkish real GDP. In line with findings for other economies, we find that real variables play the most important role; however, contrary to the findings for other economies, we find that financial variables are as important as surveys. |
| Keywords: | Developing economy ; dynamic factor model ; emerging market ; gross domestic product ; news ; nowcasting |
| JEL: | C33 C53 E37 |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2016-44&r=cwa |
| By: | Senem Kurt Topuz (Abant Izzet Baysal University) |
| Abstract: | If the condition of women in Turkey is evaluated in terms of education, violence, employment, and the like variables from the most general point of view, it will be right to start with an evaluation on the literacy condition according to gender above all because the results are striking. For example, as the year 2014, out of 2.663.096 illiterate people 2.208.336 are women (TUIK, 2014). This data is important as it refers to a huge gap between genders in terms of the level of education. Moreover, women's employment in Turkey is another important problematic area. For example, as of 2014 in Turkey the ratio of contribution of women to the labor force is 30.3%, the ratio of women's employment is 26.7%. (TUIK, 2014). Another problematic area shows itself in political representation. Although the ratio of women deputies in Turkey has increased over the years, the share of women deputies in the parliament has increased to 14.7% with the 2015 elections. Another problematic area that has been talked about and discussed most nowadays is violence against women. In the 2014 Domestic Violence Against Women in Turkey Research, across the country, the ratio of women who have experienced physical violence in any period of their lives by their husbands or ex-husbands is 36%. The ratio of women who have experienced emotional violence in any period of their lives is 44%; the ratio of physical or sexual violence experienced together is 38%.As seen, women in Turkey are in a disadvantaged position in terms of social, economic, political, and the like variables compared to men. The purpose of this study is to uncover how political parties deal with this disadvantaged position women are experiencing and the problems it creates and what kind of an approach they have to solve the problems determined. In other words, programs of political parties in the parliament will be content analyzed in terms of violence, education, employment, discrimination, equality, freedom, and the like and the results will be compared in the line with their respective parties. The basic reason why this study is conducted on examining political parties and their party programs is that political parties are the main incentive means that force the government to fulfill the desires and needs of the majority of the society and that party programs are a reference text that covers political party's ideology, priorities, and suggested solutions for the problematic areas. |
| Keywords: | Women in Turkey, Political Party Programs, Content Analysis, Domestic Violence, Women in Work Life, Political Decision Mechanisms and Woman |
| JEL: | D63 I00 J16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iacpro:3605990&r=cwa |
| By: | Hakan Ergin (Bogazici University) |
| Abstract: | Turkey has been going through a difficult exam these days. Since the Syrian crisis started in 2011, she has welcomed the Syrian migrants with her 'open door' policy. Hosting more than two millions of Syrian migrants now, Turkey has been in a continuous effort to show her hospitality to her guests. In this sense, she provided the Syrian migrants in Turkey with the right to higher education at universities in Turkey without an entrance exam and a tuition fee. This policy enabled more than five thousand Syrian migrants to start higher education in Turkey. However, this issue has become a controversial one in Turkey. As getting into a university in Turkey is very competitive among the Turkish citizens, some find this policy unfair. On the other hand, some others support it thinking that this policy is a 'brotherly' one for their neighbors. Revealing the Turkish people's perceptions towards this policy can let us find out whether this 'governmental hospitable policy' is valid in the eye of general public. Within this context, this qualitative study aims to explore the perceptions of the Turkish people towards the Syrian migrants' right to higher education in Turkey. The data of the study were collected from the reviews made by the Turkish citizens for the news about the Syrian migrants' right to higher education in Turkey on online newspapers. These reviews were analyzed by conventional content analysis technique. The findings reveal that the reviewers are in favour of or against this policy for several reasons. |
| Keywords: | Media, public response, migration, Syria, civil war, right to education. |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iacpro:3606072&r=cwa |
| By: | International Monetary Fund. European Dept. |
| Abstract: | Growth in 2015 was resilient to several shocks, supported by buoyant domestic demand. In 2016, a 30 percent minimum wage increase, relaxation of macro prudential regulations, and accommodative monetary and fiscal policies will continue fuelling domestic consumption, keeping growth at about 4 percent. The fiscal stance is projected to relax somewhat in 2016, with tightening delayed to 2017. The central bank has kept the policy rate unchanged, has postponed normalization of the monetary framework, and is using international reserves to offset pressures on the Lira. Inflation is set to exceed the target again by a wide margin. Macro prudential measures have successfully curbed consumer credit growth but some relaxation will occur in April. The current account deficit is declining thanks to lower oil prices. Nonetheless, the net international investment position remains heavily negative and external financing needs are substantial. The government has announced an ambitious program of reforms aiming at increasing potential growth and reducing external vulnerabilities over the medium term. |
| Date: | 2016–04–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:16/104&r=cwa |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Context. Afghanistan remains one of the poorest countries in the world, despite enormous progress over the past decade. Security and political uncertainties and the drawdown of international troops, together with weak governance and institutions, have held back growth and employment, and recently contributed to increased emigration. In May 2015, IMF management approved a nine-month Staff-Monitored Program (SMP), aimed at addressing fiscal and banking vulnerabilities, preserving macroeconomic stability, improving prospects for inclusive growth, and building a track record for a possible future IMF financial arrangement. Outlook and risks. On account of the sustained headwinds the economy faces, projections for real GDP growth in 2016 and beyond have been scaled back compared to those in the November 2015 Article IV staff report. The outlook remains highly challenging given political and security uncertainties and the related risks to reform implementation. Shortfalls in donor aid and continued emigration also pose important downside risks, and the banking system remains a key source of vulnerability. |
| Keywords: | Staff-monitored programs;Economic conditions;Fiscal policy;Revenue mobilization;Bank supervision;Monetary policy;Anti-money laundering;Combating the financing of terrorism;Economic indicators;Balance of payments statistics;Staff Reports;Press releases;Afghanistan; |
| Date: | 2016–05–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:16/120&r=cwa |