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on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | GÖKHAN ÖZDAMAR (Süleyman Demirel University) |
| Abstract: | Main objective of this study is to analyze the relationships between the current account balance and selected major macroeconomic variables in Turkish economy. In this respect ARDL-Bounds testing approach is applied. Results of the study related to the long-run show that the international terms of trade is a strong explanatory variable of the current account balance of Turkey. This result implies that Harberger-Laursen-Metzler (HLM) hypothesis is valid for Turkey. Findings reveal that also foreign trade balance has a strong effect on the current account balance of Turkey while the gross domestic product is found to be statistically significant but the effect level is quite low. Domestic interest rate and the real effective exchange rate variables are found to be statistically insignificant in the long-run. Error correction model results for the short-run reveal that current account balance of Turkey is mostly affected from the lagged value of itself, from foreign trade balance and also from the lagged value of real effective exchange rate. |
| Keywords: | Current Account Balance; Turkey; ARDL-Bounds testing |
| JEL: | F32 F40 F41 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iacpro:3506081&r=cwa |
| By: | Tayebi, Zahra; Fulginiti, Lilyan E. |
| Abstract: | The main purpose of this research is to determine the potential impact of weather variables on agricultural productivity for Afghanistan, Iran, Pakistan, Turkey and Syria. A translog production function was used in estimating TFP growth in agriculture over the period 1980-2010. Precipitation, temperature, drought and irrigation were included in the analysis. The results indicate increasing agricultural productivity during the period with innovations contributing approximately 30% to agricultural output growth. Temperature and precipitation play a significant role in agricultural production and most frequent extreme drought episodes and irrigation affect, substantially, agricultural productivity growth in the region. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural productivity, Climate change, Greater Middle East, Stochastic frontier, Agricultural and Food Policy, International Development, Production Economics, Productivity Analysis, |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea16:230019&r=cwa |
| By: | Imamverdiyev, Nizami; Anders, Sven; Glauben, Thomas; Perekhozhuk, Oleksandr; Prehn, Soren |
| Abstract: | The objective of this study is to analyze the trade duration patterns of Kazakhstan’s wheat exports between 1995 and 2012. Using 4-digit HS code trade flow data we employ a discrete-time duration framework and probit models controlling for unobserved heterogeneity across bilateral trade relationships. The empirical results indicate that trade cost, local production factors, price competitiveness and experience significantly explain the short duration of Kazakhstan’s wheat exports. We find that the stability and thus sustainability of Kazakhstan’s wheat exports critically depends on maintaining good trade relationships and free of export restrictions with traditional trading partners, especially post-Soviet Union economies. |
| Keywords: | Wheat exports, trade duration analysis, probit, Kazakhstan, Crop Production/Industries, C41, Q17, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:211788&r=cwa |
| By: | Halicioglu, Ferda; Ketenci, Natalya |
| Abstract: | This research presents first empirical time series evidence of the impact of international trade on environmental quality in the case of transition countries. The linkages between international trade and environmental quality are well established both theoretically and empirically in the literature. However, the empirical evidence relating to transition countries is non-existent as far as this study is concerned. Thus, our research aims at filling this gap. To this extent, fifteen transition countries are selected in order to test the impact of international trade on environmental quality. An econometric model between carbon emissions, energy use, income and trade openness is formed. The econometric model was estimated via ARDL approach to cointegration and GMM procedures. The econometric results from both econometric techniques support the existence of the EKC hypothesis only in three transition countries: Estonia, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. As for the impact of trade on environmental quality, the econometric results from both techniques vary in different transition countries. To this extent, the displacement hypothesis is validated in the case of Armenia, Estonia, Latvia, Kyrgyzstan, and Russia. The paper also discusses policy implications of the empirical results as well as offering policy recommendations. |
| Keywords: | International trade, Environmental quality, Cointegration, Transition countries |
| JEL: | C22 F1 F18 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:71097&r=cwa |
| By: | Irisbekova Mavluda |
| Abstract: | As a double land-locked country Uzbekistan craves for any additional opportunity to have extra more transport infrastructure in order make both export and import process easy and cost-effective. It is clear that Soviet transport legacy that was designed in a Moscow-centric manner is not sufficient at all for satisfying country’s wider and diverse needs in transportation, e.g. more comfortable access to sea ports. The Trans-Asian Railway project that in its very sense assumes connecting almost all countries of such a huge continent as Asia, including Uzbekistan, with each other on the one hand and with Europe on other, means a lot for this young nation that is actively growing with average GDP growth of %7 a year and intensive attraction of foreign direct investments. Key words: railway, trans-asian railway, transport infrastructure, investments |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vor:issues:2016-03-18&r=cwa |
| By: | Davide Luca |
| Abstract: | Despite a significant amount of research, literature continues to produce contrasting predictions on how, and when, public bureaucracies may enhance or constrain policy effectiveness. On the one hand, developmental state research has stressed the importance of bureaucrats’ autonomy from politics, particularly in emerging economies. On the other hand, public choice literature has called for strong oversight by politicians over the bureaus. The paper contributes to this debate by analysing Turkey’s contemporary public investment management. It offers a detailed exploration of how economic bureaucracy’s characteristics contributed to ‘sound’ investment management. The analysis draws on in-depth elite interviews. The results suggest that the existence of a capable and authoritative organisation directing the project cycle has positively contributed to the technical management of investments. Empirical evidence also indicates that this organisation is insufficiently insulated vis-à-vis government; its ability to implement ‘sound’ policies is therefore contingent on the political context. Nevertheless, the analysis also uncovers significant resistance of the bureaucrats against measures which would increase bureaucratic efficiency and transparency. Overall, the findings suggest that bureaucratic autonomy and accountability play an equally relevant role in determining policy effectiveness. |
| Keywords: | bureaucracies, policy effectiveness, public goods, EU Candidate Countries, Turkey |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eiq:eileqs:109&r=cwa |
| By: | Khasanov, Shavkat; Djanibekov, Nodir |
| Abstract: | Cotton production contributes considerably to Uzbekistan’s export earnings. The various reforms implemented to increase the operational autonomy of agricultural producers considered the stability of cotton production, yet often at the expense of farm incomes. Options for improving the farm incomes can be achieved through modifications of the cotton policy settings. Such options are analyzed by replacing the present area-based yield prescriptions by tradable cotton targets between cotton-growing farms. As part of ongoing research, the findings indicate the scope for promoting such modification to tradable production targets as it would potentially increase farm revenues, cotton yields, crop diversification, and sustainable water use at the same level of cotton output as today. The net benefits would increase due to the difference in land fertility and location to irrigation canal between contracted farms. However, the sustainability of such policy modifications would depend on strong mechanisms for price negotiation and conflict resolution |
| Keywords: | tradable production targets, pseudo-market price, optimization model, Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries, C61, Q12, Q18, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:211841&r=cwa |
| By: | Avci, S. Burcu; Yucel, Eray |
| Abstract: | Effectiveness of monetary policy depends on the degree to which policy interest rate affects all other financial prices, including the entire term structure of interest rates, credit rates, exchange rates and asset prices. An effective monetary policy framework can be seen as a pre-condition for well-functioning financial markets. However, effectiveness of the monetary policy is not straightforward to measure and requires empirical work to understand the effects of financial infrastructure, competitiveness of financial markets as well as current economic conditions. This paper examines the effectiveness of the monetary policy in Turkey by focusing on the interest rate pass-through behavior by means of an Interacted Panel Vector Autoregressive (IPVAR) approach. The results suggest that policy rate innovations transmit fully in less than eight months. Regulatory quality of the country, competition, liquidity, and profitability of banking sector, dollarization and exchange rate flexibility, inflation, and term structure have a positive effect on interest rate pass-through. Short-term credit ratio, GDP growth, monetary growth, and capital inflows have a negative effect. |
| Keywords: | Interest Rate Pass-through; Deposit and Credit Channels; Policy and Market Rates; Banking Sector; Interacted Panel Vector Autoregressive Methodology |
| JEL: | E43 E44 E58 F41 |
| Date: | 2016–04–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:70848&r=cwa |
| By: | Dilem Yıldırım (Department of Economics, METU) |
| Abstract: | This study explores the empirical validity of the purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis between Turkey and its four major trading partners, the European Union, Russia, China and the US. Accounting for the possible nonlinear nature of real exchange rates, mainly due to the existence of transaction costs, we employ a battery of recently developed nonlinear unit root tests. Empirical results reveal that nonlinear unit root tests deliver stronger evidence in favor of the PPP hypothesis when compared to the conventional unit root tests only if nonlinearities in real exchange rates are correctly specified. |
| Keywords: | Purchasing Power Parity, Real Exchange Rate, Nonlinearity, Smooth Transition |
| JEL: | C22 C61 F31 F41 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:met:wpaper:1604&r=cwa |