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on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Claudiu Barbu (Faculty of Sociology and Social Work, Babes-Bolyai University, Cluj-Napoca, Romania) |
| Abstract: | From 1990 onwards, a significant number of former communist countries from Eastern Europe and Central Asia decided to reform their public pension system by creating a mandatory private pillar. Other ex-communist countries from the same two regions only made some parametric changes to their public pension system. There are concurrent theories trying to explain why certain countries implemented a paradigmatic reform on the pension systems while others did not. All these theories are focusing on what factors determine the decision makers to reform the public pension system: the coercion of international financial institution, demographic and economic pressures, political support, the relative strength of government and unions or the proportion of peer countries that have adopted similar measures. This study tests the influence of all the factors mentioned above on the decision to adopt the pension privatization in former communist countries from Eastern Europe and Central Asia. Using event history analysis with time-varying covariates of data from 24 states between 1990 and 2013 the study shows that the probability to reform the public pension system in one country increases as the proportion of neighbor countries who adopted the same measure rises. The conclusions of this research can be compared with those taken from the interviews with the decision makers from countries of interest. Also, the research can be used as a starting point for studying the steps backwards made on this path by Hungary, Poland and Argentina. These countries had reversed the pension privatization by transferring savings under management by private pension funds back to the public sector. |
| Keywords: | pension reform, ex-communist countries, mandatory private pillar, coercion of international financial institution, demographic and economic pressures, diffusion wave |
| JEL: | A14 G23 P29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iacpro:3505983&r=cwa |
| By: | Fela Özbey (Çukurova University, FEAS); Erhan Ä°ÅŸcan (Çukurova University); Mehmet Fatih TraÅŸ (Çukurova University) |
| Abstract: | One particular area in financial economics that has received a great deal of attention is the link between exchange rate and the stock prices. The interaction between exchange rate and stock prices has been of special interest because they are regarded among the leading economic variables. The effect of exchange rate on the stock market can work in two avenues. Many studies have documented that changes in the exchange rate have the capacity to increase the volatility of the stock prices, while some other researchers indicated the effect of exchange rate on average returns. In this study, we investigate both of these issues for the case of Istanbul Stock Exchange, using monthly US Dollar-Turkish Lira (USD-TRY) exchange rate and the Istanbul Stock Exchange (BIST) 100 indicex for the period 2009M01-2015M11, employing GARCH approach. Our main findings show that an increase in exchange rate decreases expected returns and increases the riskiness of BIST 100 in Turkey. |
| Keywords: | Exchange Rate, Stock Prices, Turkish Stock Market, Volatility. |
| JEL: | C22 C58 E44 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iacpro:3506112&r=cwa |
| By: | Mehmet Fatih TraÅŸ (Çukurova University); Esra Ballı (Çukurova University); Çiler Sigeze (Çukurova University) |
| Abstract: | Purchasing power parity (PPP) is widely discussed theory to explain the determination of exchange rates. PPP implies a long-run relationship between the nominal exchange rate and the relative price levels. PPP holds in the long run once the real exchange rate is a stationary process. This study examines the validity of PPP for Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) namely Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia and Ukraine for the period 1995M1-2015M11. In this study we perform stationary test on three bases. In the first place, we initiate conventional unit root tests such as ADF and KPSS. Secondly, we utilize unit root tests allowing for structural break. Last but not least, we use a sieve bootstrap unit root test to avoid possible discrepancies between the actual and nominal rejection probabilities in hypothesis testing of unit root. In conclusion unit root test results performed show that there is a large disagreement on the validity of PPP in CIS countries. Given the span and characteristics of the period which involves a significant break such as 1998 Russian economic crisis, we conclude that PPP holds for Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, while it does not hold for Azerbaijan, Russia and Ukraine. |
| Keywords: | Purchasing Power Parity; Real Exchange Rate; Transition Economies |
| JEL: | C12 C15 F31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iacpro:3506095&r=cwa |
| By: | Rashidghalam, Masoomeh (Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran); Heshmati, Almas (Jönköping International Business School (JIBS), Centre of Excellence for Science and Innovation Studies (CESIS),& Department of Economics, Sogang University, Seoul, South Korea) |
| Abstract: | This study analyzes the technical efficiency of Iran's 13 major cotton producing provinces over the period 2000-2012. To assess technical efficiency over time we use several non-parametric versions of the Window methodology. These include Window-DEA, Window-FDH, Window order- and Window order-m models. In a Window’s analysis one uses moving average patterns as a provincial observation in each period treated as if it is a different observation leading to a higher number of observations. The aim is to shed light on temporal patterns and heterogeneity in efficiency, time dependency and sensitivity of the results attributed to different efficiency measurement methodologies that are applied using the same dataset. It then invokes four consistency conditions to examine these scores and rankings. According to our results the models Window-FDH, Window order- and Window order-m are consistent. We were able to identify the most (least) efficient provinces and follow temporal patterns of their performance in the production of cotton. The findings reveal that provinces with larger scales of production are not necessarily more efficient. The results also indicate that although there are differences in the levels of efficiency across the models used, efficiency rankings from various models tend to support similar conclusions about the relative performance of the sample provinces. |
| Keywords: | Non-parametric; technical efficiency; Window-DEA; Window-FDH; Window order-alpha; Window order-m; consistency conditions |
| JEL: | C44 D24 D51 Q12 |
| Date: | 2016–04–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:cesisp:0434&r=cwa |
| By: | Angela Greulich (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Aurélien Dasre (IEDUB - Institut d'Études Démographiques de l'Université Montesquieu-Bordeaux IV - Université Montesquieu - Bordeaux 4); Ceren Inan (COMPTRASEC - Centre de Droit Comparé du Travail et de la Sécurité Sociale - Université Montesquieu - Bordeaux 4 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | In Turkey, female employment and education are still relatively low, while fertility levels are high compared with other European countries. However, Turkey stands just at the edge of an important social transition. Increasing female education and employment come along with important decreases in fertility. By mobilizing census and survey data, this paper finds that fertility decreases are mainly caused by fewer transitions to a third birth. Graduate women participating in the formal labor market are most at risk of deciding against child arrival in comparison with inactive or unemployed women. The third rank is particularly concerned, as women’s income contribution seems to be crucial for many families that already have two children, and the arrival of a third child risks reducing or stopping women’s working activities in the absence of institutional childcare support. Policies enabling women to combine work and family life, which have been proven effective in other European countries, emerge as useful to avoid a further fertility decline below replacement level in Turkey. |
| Keywords: | fertility, gender, Turkey |
| Date: | 2015–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cesptp:hal-01298857&r=cwa |
| By: | Sunil Kumar; Melissa Fernández |
| JEL: | N0 R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:65861&r=cwa |
| By: | AYDIN AYDIN (Suleyman Demirel University) |
| Abstract: | The transformation and power struggle in the Middle East after the Arab Spring and actual withdrawal of the USA in December 2011 from Iraq and therefore from the Middle East caused serious changes in the dynamics and balances of the region. The aim of this paper is to investigate evolving foreign policy strategies, activities of both regional and global actors on Middle East from the perspective of Turkey. The changes in the Middle East policy of Turkey after such changes and the effects of regional and systemic actors on such changes were studied comparatively with the foreign policies of Iran and Saudi Arabia. The national powers of Iran, Turkey and Saudi Arabia, the effective power centers in the region, were measured and compared to each other. Within this context, it was attempted to reveal the roles that these countries assumed in the changes in the region based on their powers from the perspective of Turkey. Furthermore, the critiques of relations of Turkey with the region countries and the foreign policy approaches it abortively produced against the regional changes were assessed within the new atmosphere developing in the Middle East. |
| Keywords: | Middle East, Power Struggle, Turkish Foreign Policy, Regional Power |
| JEL: | R59 F50 R58 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iacpro:3505993&r=cwa |
| By: | OECD |
| Abstract: | As a continuation of the 2014 SIGMA assessments and as part of a longer-term programme of work, SIGMA has identified country priorities for public administration reform (PAR) for Turkey. Priorities cover the overall PAR needs of the country, including areas which were not covered by the 2014 SIGMA assessments. Priorities in areas outside the scope of SIGMA assessments are based on other analytical sources and SIGMA’s practical experience of working with the country. SIGMA proposes priority 2020 targets for the countries, sub-targets when needed, and sequenced priority activities in 1-2, 3-5 and 5+ year time perspectives. |
| Date: | 2014–05–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:govaaf:2014/1-en&r=cwa |
| By: | Özlem Becerik YoldaÅŸ (Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart University); Yunus YoldaÅŸ (Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart University) |
| Abstract: | A coalition refers to an alliance of two or more political parties to form a government and to perceive common interests for a continuance of a parliamentary term. In general, if no political party achieved an absolute majority of mandates in general elections, a coalition government will be formed. In West European parliamentary systems, coalitions are unavoidable. With a view to political systems in Europe, coalition cabinets are common, such as in Germany, Italy, Austria, Belgium and the Netherlands. Since its foundation in 1923, Turkey is also characterized by coalition governments which were unstable and negative assessed by the media and public at large. In particular, at times of political unrest and economic crises including the military coup in 1960,1970 and 1980, fifteen coalition governments in the Turkish parliamentary system.have been formed. Against this background, the main focus of the paper will be on the lifespan and stability of coalition governments in Turkey. The paper then investigates the main reasons for the resolution of coalition governments and their impacts on political culture in Turkey. |
| Keywords: | Turkey, coalition governments, polititcal culture |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iacpro:3505616&r=cwa |