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on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Jakhongir Kakhkharov |
| Keywords: | Financial Institution, Financial Development, Transition Economies |
| JEL: | G21 O16 G28 |
| Date: | 2016–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gri:fpaper:finance:201601&r=cwa |
| By: | Mohamad Taghvaee, Vahid; Hajiani, Parviz |
| Abstract: | Price and income elasticities of gasoline demand show whether the price policy, pursued by the Iranian government, can decrease the high gasoline consumption sufficiently or not. Since the two oil price shocks in 1970 and 1973, interest in the study of oil products demand has increased considerably, especially on gasoline. High gasoline consumption is a serious crisis in Iran, posing economically, politically, and environmentally threats. In this study, the elasticities are estimated over three intervals, short run, intermediate run, and long run in Iran during 1976-2010, by putting the estimates of Error Correction Model (ECM), static model, and dynamic model in an increasing order, respectively. The short run, intermediate run, and long run price elasticities are −0.1538, −0.1618, and −0.3612 and the corresponding income elasticities are 0.2273 - 0.3581, 0.4636, and 0.7284, respectively. Not only do these elasticities imply that the gasoline demand is price and income inelastic but also the adjustment velocity, estimated by ECM, is a low point at −0.1942. Based on the estimations, the gasoline demand responds to the changes of price and income slightly and slowly. Therefore, policy makers should develop more strategies to reduce gasoline consumption, for example, substitute goods, public transportation systems, and environmental standards settings |
| Keywords: | Gasoline Demand, Price Elasticity, Income Elasticity, Static Model, ECM, Dynamic Model |
| JEL: | O13 Q3 Q31 Q41 |
| Date: | 2014–06–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:70054&r=cwa |
| By: | Sargsyan Hayk |
| Abstract: | A well-functioning monetary policy transmission mechanism is a guarantee for a successful monetary policy, therefore examination of the impacts of its main determinants in Armenia was of a great interest, and served as an inspiration for the given research. Following the research objectives, a proxy variable for the strength of monetary pass-through in Armenia was estimated, and then the resulted variable was used in an empirical model to assess the long-run and short run relationship with its main factors. |
| JEL: | E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2016–03–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eer:wpalle:16/02e&r=cwa |
| By: | Amat Adarov (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Vasily Astrov (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Serkan Çiçek (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Rumen Dobrinsky (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Vladimir Gligorov (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Doris Hanzl-Weiss (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Peter Havlik (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Mario Holzner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Gabor Hunya (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Simona Jokubauskaite (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Sebastian Leitner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Isilda Mara (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Olga Pindyuk (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Leon Podkaminer (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Sandor Richter (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Hermine Vidovic (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | GDP growth in the EU Member States of Central and Eastern Europe (EU-CEE), the Western Balkans (WB) and Turkey will remain stable or even increase. The trend growth path will be around 3%. EU-CEE countries will thus continue to catch up to the EU average, however at low speed. Russia and Ukraine, on the other hand, will show a considerably worse performance growth will return in 2017 at the earliest. These are the main results of the newly released medium-term macroeconomic forecast by the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw). In 2015, the EU-CEE group registered the highest rate of economic growth since the outbreak of the financial crisis, 3.4% (see Table 1). In 2016-2017 the group will experience some modest growth deceleration on account of the recent consumption boom subsiding and a temporary decline in EU transfers. As for 2018, the EU-CEE countries will pick up some speed driven by an inflow of new investments and transfers. Uncertainties concerning the global economy do not allow us to predict average growth of more than 3% over the medium term. Countries in the Western Balkans also improved their performance in 2015 and will maintain positive growth rates in 2016 and beyond. However unimpressive it may be, compared to their need for catching-up, the average growth rate in the WB countries (excluding Serbia) will not lag behind that in the EU-CEE countries. Turkey will maintain a fragile stability despite relatively high inflation and a high current account deficit, while coping with increasing challenges emerging, for instance, from the war in Syria, the refugee crisis and the loss of export and tourism revenue owing to the Russian trade sanctions. Russia and Belarus will face yet another year of recession in 2016. Russia will continue to suffer from low oil prices, high inflation, currency depreciation, sanctions and fiscal austerity. As usual, structural change and institutional reforms will be slow and half-hearted, incapable of offsetting the losses. Ukraine’s economic growth, after the dramatic fall over the past years, will stabilise as the economy will by and large have completed the adjustment process that was triggered by the country decoupling from Russia and the occupied territories. The Russian annexation of the Crimea and the conflict in East-Ukraine look set to last. Export markets lost will not be regained even in the medium term, nor should one expect the volume of exports to the EU to make up for the shortfall quickly. The divergence of economic performance between the EU-CEE and the WB plus Turkey on the one hand and the CIS-3 (Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan) and Ukraine on the other hand will continue in 2016 and beyond. The difference between the two large country groups, however, will not take on more pronounced dimensions as the recent collapse of the major commodity prices may turn into stagnation. The leading role attributed to household demand in driving economic growth in the EU-CEE and WB countries will be matched by investments. A medium-term investment revival is expected in most of the CESEE countries in both the public and private sectors. FDI has already shown some signs of emerging from stagnation in the EU-CEE and WB countries. Credit conditions for private borrowers have improved. Moreover, gross fixed capital formation is responding to the transfer of EU funds that are bound to decline in 2016, but will recover later, once access to EU transfers provided under the 2014-2020 financing framework picks up. As fiscal consolidation and more rapid economic growth have been achieved, fiscal space has widened in several countries, thus granting governments more room in which to implement and support investments. Even highly indebted countries have managed to adopt a less restrictive fiscal stance. The CIS-3 and Ukraine are outliers in this respect as well; they have started cutting back on expenditures so as to reduce their fiscal deficits. Exports may increase if external demand recovers, but imports may grow even more rapidly as consumption and investment expand in the EU-CEE and WB economies. Thus, net exports will not be a strong driver of economic growth. Foreign investors’ income may rise overall, while remittances and labour income from abroad will remain important sources of current account revenues. Special sections of the Forecast shed light on other topical issues low oil prices are mainly supply-driven; the Juncker Initiative will not take the place of EU transfers; outmigration and demography are leading to labour shortages in EU-CEE countries; the recent inflow of refugees may, in the medium term, put pressure on existing migrant workers in Austria. |
| Keywords: | CESEE, economic forecast, Europe, Central and Eastern Europe, Southeast Europe, Western Balkans, new EU Member States, CIS, Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Turkey, growth divergence, external risks, macroeconomic imbalances, consumption-led growth, unemployment, inflation, competitiveness, public debt, private debt, current account |
| JEL: | C33 C50 E20 E29 F34 G01 G18 O52 O57 P24 P27 P33 P52 |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:fpaper:fc:spring2016&r=cwa |
| By: | Amat Adarov (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Fatos Hoxha; Werner Laventure; Isilda Mara (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | Graph of the month New asylum applications in the EU countries (p. 1) Opinion corner Migration crisis in the EU what can and should be done? (by Isilda Mara; pp. 2-4) Serbia’s gas sector and the pipeline question (by Werner Laventure; pp. 5-11) The return of the caravanserais economic relations between Turkey and the Western Balkans (by Fatos Hoxha; pp. 12-16) Eurasian integration implications for Armenia and Kyrgyzstan (by Amat Adarov; pp. 17‑22) Recommended reading (p. 23 ) Statistical Annex Monthly and quarterly statistics for Central, East and Southeast Europe (pp. 24-45) |
| Keywords: | refugees, asylum seekers, migration, energy transport, gas sector, gas pipelines, foreign trade, FDI, Eurasian integration, economic integration, former Soviet republics |
| Date: | 2015–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:mpaper:mr:2015-09&r=cwa |
| By: | BLINOV, Sergey |
| Abstract: | In 2015, many countries had to deal with the weakening of their currencies. Issues regarding exchange rate management by the Central Banks have again become the focal point of heated debate. This article compares two approaches to devaluation of local currency under the pressure of external circumstances: smooth devaluation and swift or instantaneous devaluation (drastic, stepped-up). Negative consequences of the «smooth» weakening of the exchange rate are shown, including the example of George Soros' famous attack on the British pound in 1992. Using «only» £5 bn. then, Soros managed to break the resistance of the Bank of England, which ended up investing £15 bn. to fight him. The ideas of Robert Shiller, the Nobel Laureate, have been reviewed which allow this phenomenon to be explained. Recommendations are given regarding a more rational way of managing exchange rate using the example of actions taken by the Bank of Kazakhstan in February 2014. |
| Keywords: | Monetary Policy, Central Banking, Business Cycles, International Finance, Foreign Exchange |
| JEL: | E30 E52 E58 E65 F30 F31 |
| Date: | 2016–03–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:70292&r=cwa |
| By: | Roe, Terry L.; Smith, Rodney B.W. |
| Abstract: | Final Report, Ecosystem Services Economics(ESE): The United Nations Environment Program |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy, Land Economics/Use, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:umaemp:232877&r=cwa |
| By: | Sonali Jain-Chandra; Tidiane Kinda; Kalpana Kochhar; Shi Piao; Johanna Schauer |
| Abstract: | This paper focusses on income inequality in Asia, its drivers and policies to combat it. It finds that income inequality has risen in most of Asia, in contrast to many regions. While in the past, rapid growth in Asia has come with equitable distribution of the gains, more recently fast-growing Asian economies have been unable to replicate the “growth with equity†miracle. There is a growing consensus that high levels of inequality can hamper the pace and sustainability of growth. The paper argues that policies could have a substantial effect on reversing the trend of rising inequality. It is imperative to address inequality of opportunities, in particular to broaden access to education, health, and financial services. Also fiscal policy could combat rising inequality, including by expanding and broadening the coverage of social spending, improving tax progressivity, and boosting compliance. Further efforts to promote financial inclusion, while maintaining financial stability, can help. |
| Keywords: | Asia;Inequality, Gini coefficient, income, income inequality, consumption, income share, Personal Income and Wealth Distribution, Equity, Justice, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement, All Countries, |
| Date: | 2016–03–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:16/48&r=cwa |
| By: | Selezneva, Ekaterina |
| Abstract: | During the 20th century, Russian women were assigned the triple role of social and political activists, workers, caregivers and mothers. This paper makes an overview of the main steps undertaken first by the Soviet and later by the modern Russian governments to influence family formation models and fertility levels, in order to improve the demographic situation over the period from 1917 until 2015. The overview pays close attention to such measures of demographic policy as marriage and divorce regulation, support of families through family benefits and the tax system, reconciliation of family and work spheres (maternity/paternity leaves, workplace flexibility measures), fertility promotion, childbearing and childcare support, as well as rare reproductive health protection initiatives. |
| Keywords: | fertility, Russia, family policy |
| JEL: | J12 J13 J18 P30 |
| Date: | 2015–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:hitcei:2015-8&r=cwa |
| By: | Mazilkina, Elena (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Kasaeva, Tatyana (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The paper deals with modern trends and problems of international economic integration, studies integration processes in the post-Soviet space, examines external and internal risks of integration processes and organization of information support in the framework of the Customs Union and the Common Economic Space. |
| Keywords: | international economic integration, national information security, supranational regulation, Customs Union, Eurasian Economic Commission |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:ppaper:marpc2&r=cwa |
| By: | Alexei Kireyev; Andrei Leonidov |
| Abstract: | The paper models international spillovers from a hypothetical drop of China’s imports as a result of China’s rebalancing of its growth model. A network-based model used in the paper allows capturing higher round network effects of the shock, which are largely unaccounted for in the existing literature. Such effects include direct spillovers from China on its trading partners, subsequent spillins among them, and spillbacks on China itself. The paper finds that the network effects most likely will be substantial, may amplify initial shock, and change the direction of its propagation. The impact on Asia and Pacific will be the strongest followed by the Middle East and Central Asia. The impact on sub-Saharan Africa would be noticeable only for some countries. Spillovers on Europe, including the Euro area, will be moderate, and spillovers on the Western Hemisphere, including the United States, would be very marginal. Metal and non-fuel commodity exporters may experience the largest negative impact. |
| Keywords: | Asia and Pacific;China, People's Republic of;Trade;shocks, spillover, spillin, spillback, network, gdp, revenue, demand, Neural Networks and Related Topics, Country and Industry Studies of Trade, Open Economy Macroeconomics, International Policy Coordination and Transmission, Forecasting and Simulation, and spillback, network., |
| Date: | 2016–03–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:16/51&r=cwa |