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on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Shaig Adigozalov (Central Bank of the Republic of Azerbaijan); Vugar Rahimov (Central Bank of the Republic of Azerbaijan) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we study the role of institutional quality in the cyclicality of macroeconomic policies of transition economies. Using annual data over 1996-2013, we find that the quality of institutions play a significant role in their ability to carry out counter-cyclical macroeconomic policy. This paper also analyzes the effects of monetary and fiscal shocks on output. Dividing the countries into two groups, namely CIS and non-CIS, we find that median impulse response of CIS countries’ GDP to monetary shock is negative, while in non-CIS countries this effect is close to zero. However, we find negative effect of fiscal shock on CIS countries’ GDP while the median effect of fiscal shock on GDP is very close to zero in non-CIS countries. |
| Keywords: | Institutional quality, transition economies, macroeconomic policies, monetary shocks, fiscal shocks. |
| Date: | 2015–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gii:giihei:iheidwp23-2015&r=cwa |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | The economy has shown some resilience in the face of adverse regional shocks but potential growth is constrained by persistent structural challenges, particularly lagging productivity and dependence on gold, remittances, and foreign aid. Satisfactory performance under the program during the first half of the year was followed by fiscal slippages in the run-up to the October elections and a delay in adopting the Banking Code, a key measure to strengthen central bank independence and the bank resolution framework. The combined impact of a large public investment program and currency depreciation has raised the public debt ratio markedly. Significant further depreciation could pose risks for the otherwise well capitalized, but highly dollarized, financial sector. The business environment remains weak, overshadowed by lingering disagreements between the authorities and the largest foreign investor. |
| Date: | 2016–02–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:16/55&r=cwa |
| By: | Gozgor, Giray; Can, Muhlis |
| Abstract: | Countries try to stabilize the demand for energy on one hand and sustain economic growth on other, but the worsening global warming and climate change problems have put pressure on them. This paper estimates the environmental Kuznets curve over the period 1971–2010 in Turkey both in the short and the long run. For this purpose, the unit root test with one structural break and the cointegration analysis with multiple endogenous structural breaks are used. The effects of energy consumption and export product diversification on CO2 emissions are also controlled in the dynamic empirical models. It is observed that the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis is valid in Turkey in both the short run and the long run. The positive effect of energy consumption on CO2 emissions is also obtained in the long run. In addition, it is found that a greater product diversification of exports yields higher CO2 emissions in the long run. Inferences and policy implications are also discussed. |
| Keywords: | environmental Kuznets curve; energy consumption; export product diversification; time series modeling; structural breaks |
| JEL: | C32 O13 Q56 |
| Date: | 2016–02–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:69761&r=cwa |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses Armenia’s Second Review Under the Extended Arrangement and Request for Waivers of Nonobservance and Rephasing. Since late 2014, Armenia’s economic performance has been affected by significantly weaker external conditions, as the slowdown of the Russian economy, the weakening of the ruble, lower metals prices, and the strengthening of the dollar have led to pressures on external receipts, particularly remittances. Performance under the program has come under strain. Three performance criteria (PCs) were missed both at end-December 2014 and end-June 2015. The authorities are requesting waivers of nonobservance for the missed June and continuous PCs. The IMF staff supports completion of the review. |
| Keywords: | Middle East;Armenia;deficit, exchange, remittances, monetary fund, interest |
| Date: | 2015–11–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:15/320&r=cwa |
| By: | Ahmet Benlialper (Ipek University); Hasan Comert (Middle East Technical University) |
| Abstract: | This study aims to evaluate the developments in Turkish monetary policy after 2002 and understand constraints on the effectiveness of The Turkish Central Bank (CBRT). The CBRT has significantly altered its monetary policy in response to the crisis. It became much more experimental and aware of challenges it faced. However, the Bank’s ability to exert influence on key variables seems to have been restrained by factors outside of its control. Financial flows exert great influence on key macroeconomic variables the Bank monitors closely. Furthermore, energy prices are among the key determinants of inflation in Turkey. As a result, the Bank’s influence on growth and inflation through intermediate variables became a daunting task. The magnitude and direction of flows seem to be mainly related to global risk perception determining the worldwide liquidity conditions rather than domestic factors. Under these conditions central banks may not set their official interest rates independent of interest rates in advanced countries. Indeed, our VAR analysis exercise supports this argument for the Turkish case. Existing policy framework would not produce desired outcomes unless the sources of the problems such as financial flows as the main global constraints on monetary policy are addressed in a much more serious manner |
| Keywords: | central banking, economic and financial crisis, capital inflows, the Turkish economy |
| JEL: | E52 E52 G01 F31 F32 O53 |
| Date: | 2015–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fes:wpaper:wpaper111&r=cwa |
| By: | Erdem Ozluk (Selcuk University) |
| Abstract: | Recently Turkey and Russia relations are undergoing a serious crisis since the downing of the Russian warplane by Turkish air forces for the violation of the Turkish airspace on 24 November 2015. As a matter of fact, relations between two countries were at the highest level after the end of the Cold War and there was a growing collaboration in terms of political and economic relations between two countries. For example, in 2010, both countries agreed to allow visa-free travel and reached an agreement for building Turkey’s first nuclear power plant. However, because of the regional expansion of Russian power for the last decade, Turkey and Russia has started to hold opposing views on how to overcome regional problems. Especially after the Russian interventionist policies towards first Georgia and Ukraine and then the civil war in Syria, relations between the two countries have sharply deteriorated. Indeed, the ongoing crisis between the two countries is not just related with the civil war in Syria or the Turkish downing of a Russian warplane. Because there have been potential tensions between the two countries in many areas and factors since the end of the Cold War such as Azerbaijan and Armenia relations, Iran and nuclear crisis, transportation routes for hydrocarbon energy supplies, Chechnya in Russia and Kurdish issue in Turkey, geopolitical and military balances in the Black Sea region. The ongoing crisis has escalated in the aftermath the Turkish downing of a Russian warplane. This study argues that the normalization of Russia-Turkey relations in a short time is of utmost importance for the resolution of numerous conflicts in the Middle East, particularly the civil war in Syria and the fight against Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). This study also seeks to answer the following questions; what should be done in order to deescalate the crisis? How this crisis may affect the future of war in Syria in particular and certain problems in the Middle East region in general? |
| Keywords: | Russia, Turkey, Middle East, War in Syria |
| JEL: | F50 F51 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iacpro:3305829&r=cwa |
| By: | Rui Dang |
| Abstract: | In this article, we investigate the differences in smoking behavior between male Turkish immigrants and male Germans, using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP). More specifically, we use a Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition method for count data models, and isolate differences in the number of cigarettes consumed daily between Turkish immigrants and Germans into a component reflecting differences in observed socio-economic characteristics and a component reflecting unobserved smoking behavior. Our results reveal that more than 50% of the differences in cigarette consumption between male Turkish immigrants and male Germans is attributable to observable characteristics. |
| Keywords: | integration, migration, and transnationalization; health and care; demography and population |
| JEL: | J15 I14 C21 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwsop:diw_sp819&r=cwa |
| By: | AyÅŸe Arat (Selcuk University, Faculty of Law) |
| Abstract: | Step children are viewed pity for all cultures. Even foster parents are always evil in tales. In real life, the situation is not the same for all step children, but there is no doubt that this is a sensitive subject. The rule of law has brought protective provisions in favor of children because they are incapable. So that parents’ custody on children has been limited to various provisions against abuse. The striking one among these limiting provisions is a provision for interest and pay attention to spouses minors of the stepchildren (TCC. Art. 338). This is relatively new in terms of the provisions of Turkish law, not only leads to the emergence of a set of results but also for an advice. The beginning of these results, if step parents' behavior violates obligation of care and his own mother or father condone this, the custody of child's can be removed and even care obligating violation of a defective behavior for spouses' divorce. In our study, according to the Turkish Civil Law provisions in the general framework of the protection of children, in particular the step child protection and violation of care obligations to the step children the sanctions that may arise are evaluated. |
| Keywords: | Step-child, Protection of Step-child, Stepchild at the Turkish Civil Law. |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iacpro:3306092&r=cwa |
| By: | Nuri Calik (Turgut Ozal University); Celil Koparal (Anadolu University) |
| Abstract: | This survey intends to find out consumers’ expectations and perceptions about the service quality offered by service companies and retail outlets. A survey is applied to 470 respondents selected via stratified sampling from Ankara, the capital of Turkey with 4.5 million inhabitants. The respondents are required to answer 35 questions of which last five are related to demographic characteristics of these respondents. The rest 30 are statements which are designed to reflect the service quality perceptions of these people. The study consists of five parts. The first part is an introduction where the scope and the purpose of the study are concisely stated. The second part relates to the theoretical background of the subject matter and the prior researches carried out so far. The third part deals with research methodology, basic premises and hypotheses attached to these premises. Research model and analyses take place in this section. Theoretical framework is built and a variable name is assigned to each of the question asked or proposition forwarded to the respondents of this survey. 30 statements or propositions given to the respondents are placed on a five-point Likert scale where 1 represents strongly disagree; 2 disagree; 3 neither agree nor disagree; 4 agree and 5 strongly agree. The last five questions about demographic traits as age, gender, occupation, educational level and monthly income are placed either on a nominal or ratio scale with respect to the nature of the trait. Fiveresearch hypotheses are formulated in this section. The fourth part mainly deals with the results of the hypothesis tests and a factor analysis is applied to the data on hand. Here exploratory factor analysis reduces 30 variables to five basic components. KMO test of sampling adequacy and scale reliability test proved high scores as 0.855 and 0.806 respectively. In addition non-parametric biraviate analysis in terms of Chi-Square test is applied to test the hypotheses formulated in this respect. The fifth part is the conclusion where findings of this survey is listed. |
| Keywords: | Perceived service quality, customers' trust, customers' ambiguity, servicequality assurance, service reiability |
| JEL: | M31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iefpro:3205846&r=cwa |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that Afghanistan remains a poor fragile state that is far from self-reliance. Significant fiscal and banking vulnerabilities emerged in 2014. Domestic revenue collection fell below its 2013 level because of lower growth, declining imports, and lower compliance, while operating expenditure increased. The treasury cash balance fell to dangerously low levels in the second half of 2014, and domestic payment arrears and unfunded allotments emerged. The future path of the economy is highly dependent on the authorities’ delivering on their economic reform commitments, continued donor support, and improvements in security. |
| Keywords: | Article IV consultation reports;Economic conditions;Revenue mobilization;Mining sector;Public enterprises;Fiscal reforms;Corruption;Banking sector;Economic indicators;Letters of Intent;Debt sustainability analysis;Staff Reports;Press releases;Afghanistan; |
| Date: | 2015–12–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:15/324&r=cwa |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that economic activity in Iran has slowed down significantly since the fourth quarter of 2014/15 owing to sharp decline in global oil prices, tight corporate and bank balance sheets, and postponed consumption and investment decisions ahead of the expected lifting of economic sanctions. Twelve-month (point-to-point) inflation has declined to about 10 percent in recent months, largely reflecting lower food and beverage inflation, and the inflation rate is expected to remain close to 14 percent by year-end. Prospects for 2016/17 are brighter, owing to the prospective lifting of economic sanctions. |
| Keywords: | Article IV consultation reports;Oil prices;Economic growth;Fiscal policy;Fiscal consolidation;Labor market reforms;Banking sector;Bank supervision;Monetary policy;Economic indicators;Balance of payments statistics;Staff Reports;Press releases;Iran, Islamic Republic of; |
| Date: | 2015–12–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:15/349&r=cwa |