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on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Tural Karimli (Center for Research and Development, Central Bank of the Republic of Azerbaijan); Nigar Jafarova (Center for Research and Development, Central Bank of the Republic of Azerbaijan); Heyran Aliyeva (Center for Research and Development, Central Bank of the Republic of Azerbaijan); Salman Huseynov (Center for Research and Development, Central Bank of the Republic of Azerbaijan) |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates different channels of oil price pass through into inflation for the countries Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Russia. We propose a methodology to disentangle the effects of different channels after an oil price shock hits international markets. We measure the relative importance of the two distinct channels through which oil price shocks are transmitted into inflation in these economies. For that, we employ an approach which is in the spirit of the methodology proposed by Sims and Zha (1995). The empirical evidence shows that the level of inflation in these oil-exporting countries responds significantly to oil price shocks. The fiscal and cost channels are major amplifiers of the effects of oil price shocks on inflation. By providing new evidence from emerging oil-exporting countries, the paper also has important policy implications on the maintenance of price stability by central banks. |
| Date: | 2016–02–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gii:giihei:iheidwp01-2016&r=cwa |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Kyrgyz Republic: Selected Issues |
| Date: | 2016–02–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:16/56&r=cwa |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Tajikistan’s economy is entering a downturn and the banking sector is showing substantial weaknesses. In particular, the economy and the financial sector are facing the downside risks and negative spillovers from: (i) a protracted period of negative growth in Russia, coupled with a possible slowdown of growth in China; (ii) commodity (especially cotton and aluminum) price shocks; and (iii) delays in structural reforms, particularly in banks and state-owned enterprises. System-wide nonperforming loans grew substantially in 2014 and capital buffers are likely to be overstated due to misclassification and underprovisioning of bad loans. Credit quality is poor, owing to inadequate credit assessment methodologies and insufficient credit information, but also to directed and related-party lending in the past, which have heightened moral hazard. |
| Keywords: | Financial system stability assessment;Financial sector;Banks;Stress testing;Bank supervision;Bank regulations;Bank resolution;Deposit insurance;Macroprudential Policy;Crisis prevention;Tajikistan; |
| Date: | 2016–02–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:16/41&r=cwa |
| By: | Andrew Shaver (Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University); Jacob N. Shapiro (Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Department of Politics, Princeton University) |
| Abstract: | Scholars of civil war and insurgency have long posited that insurgent organizations and their state enemies incur costs for the collateral damage they cause. We provide the first direct quantitative evidence that wartime informing is affected by civilian casualties. Using newly declassified data on tip flow to Coalition forces in Iraq we find that information flow goes down after government forces inadvertently kill civilians and it goes up when insurgents do so. These results confirm a relationship long posited in the theoretical literature on insurgency but never directly observed, have strong policy implications, and are consistent with a broad range of circumstantial evidence on the topic. |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hic:wpaper:210&r=cwa |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | This Selected Issues paper discusses some options to strengthen Iran’s fiscal framework, and highlights the need for a medium-term framework. Fiscal policy design in Iran faces numerous challenges. Some are current, such as managing volatile oil revenue while addressing development needs. Other challenges are related to demographic pressures from new entrants to the labor market, as the country needs to prepare from aging pressures in the decades to come. With medium-term planning, macroeconomic stability, and adequate spending, fiscal policy could play a critical role in fostering growth. Ultimately, addressing these issues would help Iran achieve its objective of becoming one of the fastest-growing emerging economies. |
| Keywords: | Payments arrears;Oil revenues;Labor productivity;Fiscal policy;Government expenditures;Aging;Budgets;Iran, Islamic Republic of;Iran, Islamic Republic of;Selected Issues Papers;revenue, budget, investment, arrears |
| Date: | 2015–12–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:15/350&r=cwa |
| By: | Hakan Güneş (Department of Economics, METU); Dilem Yıldırım (Department of Economics, METU) |
| Abstract: | This study aims to investigate the cost efficiency of Turkish commercial banks over the restructuring period of the Turkish banking system, which coincides with the 2008 financial global crisis and the 2010 European sovereign debt crisis. To this end, within the stochastic frontier framework, we employ a modified version of the true fixed effect model of Greene (2005), where the unobserved bank heterogeneity is integrated in the inefficiency distribution at a mean level. To select the cost function with the most appropriate inefficiency correlates, we first adopt a search algorithm and then utilize the model averaging approach of Huang and Lai (2012) to verify that our results are not exposed to model selection bias. Overall, our empirical results reveal that cost efficiencies of Turkish banks have improved over time, with the effects of the 2008 and 2010 crises remaining rather limited. Furthermore, not only the cost efficiency scores but also impacts of the crises on those scores appear to vary with regard to bank size and ownership structure, in accordance with much of the existing literature. |
| Keywords: | Stochastic Frontier, Cost Efficiency, Turkish commercial banks, Panel Data |
| JEL: | C23 C24 D21 G21 G28 |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:met:wpaper:1603&r=cwa |
| By: | Knarik Ayvazyan; Teresa Daban Sanchez |
| Abstract: | Using a structural vector auto-regression (SVAR) model, this paper examines the size, geographical sources, and transmission channels of global and regional shocks to the Armenian economy. Results show that Armenian economic activity is strongly influenced by global demand shocks and changes in oil prices, yet relatively immune to financial volatility. Transmission takes place through the Russian and EU economies, remittances, and external borrowing. The role of exports and tourism is low. Russia is key in transforming the potentially negative impact of an increase in oil prices into a positive event, through stronger remittances and exports. Services and construction, which depend significantly on remittances and external borrowing, are the most affected by global and regional shocks. |
| Keywords: | Armenia;Middle East;Remittances;Spillovers, Trade, Business cycles, Transmission channels, SVAR, economy, trading partners, regional shocks, oil prices, General, Open Economy Macroeconomics, Forecasting and Simulation, Economic Growth of Open Economies, |
| Date: | 2015–11–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:15/241&r=cwa |
| By: | Sproule, Kathryn; Kieran, Caitlin; Quisumbing, Agnes R.; Doss, Cheryl |
| Abstract: | Despite increasing evidence that households do not always function as one, policies regarding land and property rights are often formulated at the household level, assuming the primary adult male is the landowner. Because land policy reform has typically focused on changing household, rather than individual, rights to land, many of the data are collected at the household rather than the individual level. As a result of a combination of these factors, securing women’s land rights has remained a largely unaddressed issue by policymakers. So as to inform the formulation of policies and interventions to strengthen women’s land rights, this paper analyzes nationally representative data from Bangladesh, Tajikistan, Timor-Leste, and Vietnam to understand the processes by which men and women acquire land; the social, cultural, and legal institutions surrounding gender and landownership; and the role of individual and household characteristics influencing an individual’s ability to own land. Our findings that women own less land than do men across different types of household structures and that gender inequality increases with household landholdings suggests that women’s land rights need to be strengthened within marriage and protected should the marriage dissolve. Although the impacts of gender-sensitive land policy reform are not well researched, early findings on policy reforms such as joint titling in Vietnam show that policies to strengthen women’s land rights have the potential to improve women’s well-being as well as their children’s without detrimental effects on productivity. Our findings of gender inequalities in intrahousehold land allocation and of increasing inequality as households accumulate land suggest an agenda for future research and policy that strengthens the land rights of women, particularly within marriage. |
| Keywords: | gender, women, land ownership, assets, households, land rights, legal rights, land policies, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:1481&r=cwa |
| By: | Krishnan,Nandini; Olivieri,Sergio Daniel |
| Abstract: | Iraq was plunged into two simultaneous crises in the second half of 2014, one driven by a sharp decline in oil prices, the other, by the war against the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. The severity and recurrent nature of these crises demand a fast understanding and quantification of their welfare impact, which is critical for policy makers. This paper employs an innovative extension of the micro-simulation methodology to provide an ex ante estimate and analysis of the complex and dynamic poverty and distributional impact of the twin crises. The results show an almost complete erosion of the welfare gains of the past, with poverty falling back to 2007 levels and a 20 percent increase in the number of the poor. While the incidence of poverty is higher among internally displaced persons than the rest of the population (except in the Islamic State?affected governorates, where poverty is higher), internally displaced persons make up only a small proportion of Iraq's eight million poor in 2014. The rest comprise of households who already lived below the poverty line, or those who have fallen below the poverty line in the face of the massive economic disruptions the country is facing. The welfare impact of the crises varies widely across space, with the largest increases in poverty headcount rates in Kurdistan and the Islamic State?affected governorates. Yet, the poorest regions in the 2014 crisis scenario are the same as in 2012, the currently Islamic State?affected, and the South, with poverty rates of 40 and 30 percent, respectively. Although the simulated results are not strictly comparable to ex post micro data estimates, because of survey coverage constraints, overall the results are very much in line, particularly in Kurdistan and the South. |
| Keywords: | Regional Economic Development,Inequality,Economic Theory&Research,Labor Policies,Rural Poverty Reduction |
| Date: | 2016–02–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7567&r=cwa |