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on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Ilker Ersegun Kayhan (Chevening/Abdullah Gül Research Fellow, Oxford Center for Islamic Studies, University of Oxford); Glenn P. Jenkins (Queen’s University, Canada and Eastern Mediterranean University, North Cyprus) |
| Abstract: | The government of Turkey actively promotes public-private partnership models in infrastructure projects. Public-private partnership implementation contracts risk incurring a heavy fiscal burden on the state through contingent liabilities. It is therefore important to distribute risk among contract parties, according to the risk-management capacities of each. In the context of Build-Operate-Transfer projects, governments are expected to cover political and force majeure risks, as well as to guarantee demand for the goods and/or services produced. In Turkey, however, the government also assumes responsibility for finance risk, construction risk, and availability risk, which are usually assumed by the private sector. This study presents an overview of the legal and institutional frameworks relevant to Build-Operate-Transfer projects in Turkey, assessing the explicit contingent liabilities and associated risks to formulate policy recommendations on the evaluation, monitoring, and management of such contingent liabilities and risks in line with international best practice. |
| Keywords: | Public-private partnerships, infrastructure, contingent liabilities, Turkey |
| JEL: | L33 G13 H54 |
| Date: | 2016–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qed:dpaper:283&r=cwa |
| By: | Azimi, Mohammad Naim |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we argue that the market consumption is one of the major and significant elements of Gross Domestic Product driver in Afghanistan for which the competeting null hypothesis that consumption drives the GDP growth is tested. The statistical analysis based on Semi-long regression economic growth model shows a significant corresponding probability value of 0.000 which shows that consumption drives GDP growth while the coefficient exhibits 0.1534 or 15.34% growth of GDP driven by consumption throughout the period 2001 to 2014. Further statistical analysis obtained from the Breusch-Godfrey and Breusch – Pegan-Godfrey LM tests for investigating the existence of any serial correlation within the series support us to reject the null hypothesis that there is no serial correlation within the series. On the other hand, the Jarque-Bera test of normality shows a p-value of 0.3099 which is significant and further documents that the residuals are random and normally distributed within the series. |
| Keywords: | Market Consumption; GDP; Homoskedasticity; Heteroskedasticity; Economic Growth |
| JEL: | E0 E01 G1 O4 |
| Date: | 2016–01–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:69517&r=cwa |
| By: | Azimi, Mohammad Naim |
| Abstract: | This study aims to investigate the correlation and consistency of the internal factors to organization that affect the ethical intensity of accountants at workplace in Afghanistan. To investigate this, an ethical scenario based questionnaire was developed and distributed to 250 professional and non-professional accountants who work in auditing and accounting firms in Afghanistan. For statistical analysis, ∂ Cronbach’s model is initially applied and it is further tested by KMO, Bartlett’s test and factor analysis to assure an accurate result. The statistical analysis reflects a highly reliable ∂ ≥ 0.9 of the data and indicates a strong correlation of the internal factors by + ≥ 0.68 (F1 through F10) that affect the ethical intensity of the accountants. The constructed null hypothesis is tested and on the basis of the statistical analysis and the result of study, it is therefore refuted. |
| Keywords: | Accounting Ethics, Empirical Research, Ethical Intensity, Ethical Fragility, Financial Scandals |
| JEL: | M0 M4 M41 M42 |
| Date: | 2015–06–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:69532&r=cwa |
| By: | Belke, Ansgar; Kronen, Dominik |
| Abstract: | In this paper a non-linear model is applied, where suddenly strong spurts of exports occur when changes of the exchange rate go beyond a zone of inaction, which we call 'play' area - analogous to mechanical play. We implement an algorithm describing path-dependent play-hysteresis into a regression framework. The hysteretic impact of real exchange rates on Greek exports is estimated based on the period from 1995Q1 to 2014Q4. Looking at some of the main export partners of Greece, the euro area, Turkey and the US, and some of its most important tradeable sectors we identify significant hysteretic effects for a part of the Greek exports. We find that Greek export activity is characterized by 'bands of inaction' with respect to changes in the real exchange rate and calculate the further real depreciation needed to trigger a spurt in Greek exports. To check for robustness we (a) estimate Greek export equations for a limited sample excluding the recent financial crisis, (b) use export weight instead of deflated nominal exports as the dependent variable, (c) employ a political uncertainty variable as a determinant of the width of the area of weak reaction. Overall, we find that those specifications which take uncertainty into account display the best goodness of fit. In other words: the option value of waiting dominates the real exchange rate effect on Greek exports. |
| Abstract: | Analog zu mechanischem Spiel wendet dieses Paper ein nichtlineares Modell an, in dem plötzlich starke Reaktionen der Exporte auftreten, wenn die Wechselkursveränderung eine inaktive Zone überschreitet, welche als 'play area' bezeichnet wird. Wir implementieren einen Algorithmus, der pfadabhängige Hysterese beschreibt, in einem Regressionsmodell. Der hysteretische Einfluss des realen Wechselkurses auf griechische Exporte wird für die Periode von 1995Q1 bis 2014Q4 geschätzt. Wir finden signifikante hysteretische Effekte für einen Teil der griechischen Exporte bei der Betrachtung einiger Hauptexportpartner Griechenlands, wie die Eurozone, die Türkei und die USA unter der Berücksichtigung der wichtigsten Handelssektoren. Es zeigt sich, dass griechische Exporte durch ein 'Band of Inaction' in Bezug auf Veränderungen des realen Wechselkurses charakterisiert sind, und wir berechnen die weitere Abwertung, die benötigt wird, um eine starke Exportreaktion für Griechenland auszulösen. Um auf Robustheit zu prüfen; (a) schätzen wir die Exportgleichungen für einen begrenzten Zeitraum und berücksichtigen nicht die jüngste Finanzkrise, (b) verwenden wir Mengenangaben für die Exportreihen statt nominaler Werte, (c) wird politische Unsicherheit als Determinante für die Breite der schwachen Exportreaktionen implementiert. Allgemein stellt sich heraus, dass jene Spezifikationen, die Unsicherheit berücksichtigen, die beste Güte zeigen. Anders formuliert dominiert der Optionswert abzuwarten den realen Wechselkurseffekt griechischer Exporte. |
| Keywords: | real depreciation,Greece,play-hysteresis,modelling techniques,switching/spline regression,export demand |
| JEL: | F14 C51 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:593&r=cwa |
| By: | Gokhan Ozertan (Bogazici University); Sayed H. Saghaian (University of Kentucky); Hasan Tekguc (Mardin Artuklu Univeristy) |
| Abstract: | In 2009, the Competition Authority (CA) in Turkey penalized 27 broiler chicken producers for agreeing to restrict supply and controlling prices, hence, forming a cartel. The CA based its punishment decision on communication records among major broiler chicken producers, using raw price series and without any statistical or econometric analysis. In this research, time-series methods are employed to test directly for the presence of market power along the supply chain in the poultry sector for both demand and supply sides. The findings show that the retail price behavior in the poultry supply chain in Turkey is consistent with an oligopolistic market structure. Classification JEL: Q11, Q13 |
| Keywords: | Market power, poultry, Turkey |
| Date: | 2014–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mrd:martwp:2014-01&r=cwa |
| By: | Ünver, Mehmet Bilal; Göktaylar, Yavuz; Tezel, Fatih |
| Abstract: | FMS (fixed-to-mobile substitution) has increasingly been echoed within the regulatory agenda of the global and domestic policy actors as the usage of mobile telephony has rapidly exceeded that of the fixed telephony in the last decade. In this line of thinking and upon the drastic changes in market figures, e.g., diminishing fixed subscriber number and traffic, Information and Communication Technologies Authority (ICTA), regulatory authority in Turkey has had a survey carried out across the country in 2013, primarily to evaluate the degree of FMS. The survey results demonstrated the existence of one-sided (or imperfect) FMS, which has been found to influence fixed access and calling markets so as to ensure that these two markets are more competitive under a forward-looking approach. Moreover, ICTA has advanced the wholesale regulations within the context of fixed call origination market by imposing margin squeeze remedy on the fixed incumbent (SMP operator). While the latter step is criticized as being in conflict with the deregulation decision, the nature of the remedy being on ex post basis could be speculated to eliminate the concerns to an extent. Aggravating the discussion, an interesting development during the course of ICTA’s intervention has happened in January 2015 when the SMP operator has increased its two retail prices so as to rearrange the margins. In this context, two questions arise from the discussions which extend to the philosophy of market regulation and deregulation: (i) First, does the regulator have a responsibility to pursue a regular (although being ex post) way of examining and when necessary intervening the incumbent’s retail prices despite the fact Competition Authority has opened investigations several times on the same issue. (ii) Would the exposed degree of FMS have had a driving role for deregulation of fixed access and calling markets, which are freed from regulation including margin squeeze remedy on a different route across EU, i.e. mostly inner-market (or VOB-driven) developments towards effective competition. In this paper, such debates are addressed under the light of the reasons that justify margin squeeze as well as deregulation acts issued both by the Turkish regulator itself and in general way of regulatory understanding, i.e. with a particular emphasis to EU perspective and implementation. It is elaborated whether the underlined concerns relating to the degree of market regulation are successfully sorted out and translated into regulatory practice, specifically when thought with Turkey-centric competition problems, i.e. predominant WLR type service-based models, diminishing fixed markets. After discussions, it is found that although belatedly imposed and accompanied by deregulation, such a remedy would serve as a check-balance tool for a transition period, but not suffice to cover all the long-term problems by itself in cases where competing operators have insufficient competitive tools in terms of replicability. Last but not the least it is concluded that although European way of deregulation draws a differing roadmap, EU-centric pillars for regulation are implicitly injected into the Turkish system, which tries to resolve the issue with a trade-off together with the little possibility of ruling in a regulatory vacuum. Should this and a comparable risk of regulatory opportunism be prevented, a hybrid and promising example would be mentioned under the context of deregulatory reform. |
| Keywords: | margin squeeze,deregulation,FMS,EU regulatory framework,market definition,fixed,mobile,voice,Turkey |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:itse15:127186&r=cwa |
| By: | Altug, Sumru G.; Cakmakli, Cem |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we formulate a statistical model of inflation that combines data on survey expectations and the inflation target set by central banks.. Our model produces inflation forecasts that are aligned with survey expectations, thereby integrating the predictive power of the survey expectations together with the baseline model. We further incorporate the inflation target set by the monetary authority to examine the effectiveness of monetary policy in forming inflation expectations and therefore, predicting inflation accurately. Results indicate superior predictive power of the proposed framework compared to the model without survey expectations as well as several popular benchmarks such as the backward and forward looking Phillips curves and naive forecasting rule. |
| Keywords: | Inflation forecasting; inflation targeting; state space models; survey-based expectation; term structure of inflation expectations |
| JEL: | C32 C51 E31 E37 |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:10419&r=cwa |