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on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Alan, Sule; Cemalcilar, Mehmet; Karlan, Dean S.; Zinman, Jonathan |
| Abstract: | Models of shrouding predict that firms lack incentives to compete on add-on prices. Working with a large Turkish bank to test SMS direct marketing promotions to 108,000 existing checking account holders, we find that messages promoting a large discount on the overdraft interest rate reduce overdraft usage. In contrast, messages that mention overdraft availability without mentioning price increase usage. Neither change persists long after messages stop, suggesting that induced overdrafting is not habit-forming. Our results are consistent with a model of limited memory and attention. |
| Keywords: | advertising; consumer banking; contingent charges; deposit accounts; habit formation; limited attention; retail banking; salience |
| JEL: | D12 D14 G2 |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:10414&r=cwa |
| By: | Ahmad Shah Mobariz (United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP)) |
| Abstract: | The paper undertakes a cost-benefit analysis of Afghanistan’s accession to the WTO while attempting to shed light on the post-WTO accession challenges. For our empirical analysis we have applied the WITS/SMART model to assess the implication of the WTO membership. A cut in tariffs is the independent variable and government revenue, trade creation, consumer welfare and general welfare of the economy are dependent variables. The results indicate that Afghan consumers stand to benefit from tariff reforms with overall positive welfare gains to the economy. However, reduced tariff rates will lead to a fall in government revenue and a substantial increase in imports, subsequently raising concerns over negative trade balances. The final section of this paper studies the post-accession challenges with a particular focus on development, institutional, legal and environmental issues. Our analysis, based on the sectoral mix of Afghanistan’s economy suggests that producers will lose out. The findings of this study support the position that Afghanistan should maintain the maximum policy space in order to achieve its long-term development goals. |
| Keywords: | Liberalization, WTO Accession, Afghanistan Economy, Policy Space, Accession Challenges |
| JEL: | F13 F17 |
| Date: | 2015–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unt:arwopa:awp147&r=cwa |
| By: | Tommaso Ciarli; Chiara Kofol; Carlo Menon |
| Abstract: | In this paper we use a unique dataset that combines spatial detailed information on conflict events and on households' activity, to show a positive and significant correlation between violent conflict and entrepreneurship in Afghanistan. We build spatial and IV identifications to estimate the effect of different measures of conflict on the investment in a range of private economic activities of nearby households. The results consistently show that the level of conflict, its impact, and to a lesser extent its frequency, increase the probability that a household engages in self-employment activities with lower capital intensity and in activities related to subsistence agriculture, and reduce the probability of investing in higher capital self-employment. Overall, by increasing entrepreneurship, conflict pushes the country towards a regressive structural change. However, the magnitude of most of the effects is quite small. The paper contributes to a literature that, due to data constraints and identification issues, has not yet delivered conclusive evidence. |
| Keywords: | violent conflict; entrepreneurship; development |
| JEL: | D74 O12 R12 |
| Date: | 2015–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:65015&r=cwa |
| By: | Ilker Ersegun Kayhan (Chevening/Abdullah Gül Research Fellow, Oxford Center for Islamic Studies, University of Oxford); Glenn P. Jenkins (Queen’s University, Canada and Eastern Mediterranean University, North Cyprus) |
| Abstract: | Minimum-traffic guarantees for build-operate-transfer toll-road projects are contingent liabilities that expose government to fiscal risk. Therefore, public authorities must value guarantees, thereby enabling informed decision-making about the level and type of guarantee provision. This study demonstrates the use of financial modeling and risk analysis in a toll-road project in Turkey, contributing to the narrowing of a capacity gap in the field. We present three types of guarantee, modeled as real options and evaluated by Monte Carlo simulation. We identify one criterion to determine the optimum level of guarantee for a given project, and one criterion to measure the extent to which a guarantee will reduce risk. Based on these and other complementary criteria, it is proposed that the guarantee with income ceiling is the most appropriate for the project considered here. The paper concludes with a discussion of the policy implications of the findings. |
| Keywords: | Contingent liabilities, government guarantees, real options, cost-benefit analysis, public-private partnerships, infrastructure, Turkey. |
| JEL: | G13 D61 H54 L33 |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qed:dpaper:284&r=cwa |
| By: | Unver, Mustafa; Dogru, Bulent |
| Abstract: | This paper makes an empirical investigation of the determinants of fragility in terms of long-term fiscal sustainability and sovereign ratings for Brazil, India, Indonesia, South Africa and Turkey, referred to as the “fragile five” by Morgan Stanley (2013), using the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square (FMOLS) approach developed by Phillips and Hansen (1990). The dataset covers the 1980–2012 period for fiscal sustainability and 1990–2012 for sovereign ratings in these countries. The study revealed a statistically significant relationship between fiscal sustainability and current account balance, gross domestic product (GDP), total reserves, energy imports, exchange rate, external debt and credit to the private sector, while the findings associated with sovereign ratings demonstrate significantly that the leading determinants of sovereign ratings are exchange rates, total reserves, energy imports, foreign direct investment (FDI) net inflows, current account balance, GDP and external debt stocks. |
| Keywords: | Fragile Five, Fiscal Sustainability, Sovereign Ratings, Macroeconomics, FMOLS Approach |
| JEL: | G01 H63 |
| Date: | 2015–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:68734&r=cwa |
| By: | Azimi, Mohammad Naim |
| Abstract: | Computer Assisted Education skills have opened a new era in the system of education around the globe and one of the building blocks in its adaptation in Afghanistan is the economic aspect of its acquisition and utilization which has weakened the process. In this paper, we test the significance of value to volume of the laptops being sold to and utilized by the students and lecturers at school and university levels throughout the period 2002 to 2014 paneling in five laptop retailing companies in Afghanistan. Using Pooled OLS Regression and Fixed Effect Models to test the impact of the panel data, the result shows a significant impact of the sales value on the sale volume of the laptops during the stated period of time. It is also found that the drop in price had increased the sale volume in the stated entities, while cash discount did not reflect a significant value to affect the sales volume overtime. |
| Keywords: | Technology Assisted Education; Constructivist; Fixed Effect Model; Random Effect Model; Academia; Afghanistan |
| JEL: | B4 B41 D4 D46 |
| Date: | 2015–03–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:69531&r=cwa |