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on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Yılmaz, Engin |
| Abstract: | Modeling and forecasting techniques of the tourist arrivals are many and diverse. Th ere is no unique model that exactly outperforms the other models in every situation. Actually a few studies have realized modeling and forecasting the tourist arrivals to Turkey and these studies have not focused on the total tourist arrivals. Th ese studies have focused on the tourist arrivals to Turkey country by country (or OECD countries). In addition to this, structural time series models have not been used in modeling and forecasting the tourist arrivals to Turkey. In this sense, this paper is the fi rst study which uses the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model and the structural time series model in order to forecast the total tourist arrivals to Turkey. Two diff erent models are developed to forecast the total tourist arrivals to Turkey using monthly data for the period 2002-2013. Th e results of the study show that two models provide accurate predictions but the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model produces more accurate short-term forecasts than the structural time series model. It is noted that the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model shows a very successful performance in the forecasting the total tourist arrivals to Turkey. |
| Keywords: | structural time series models; arima; tourist arrivals; tourist demand; Turkey |
| JEL: | C53 |
| Date: | 2015–12–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:68616&r=cwa |
| By: | Yılmaz, Engin; Süslü, Bora |
| Abstract: | As the basis of the current economic approach, comes to the fore the intertemporal utility function of decision-making economic units. Decision-making economic units decide their expenditures upon the substitution of their future utility for present utility. They defer present consumption and head for making savings. Yet, the exact opposite may also apply. Changes in the policy decisions of monetary authority have impacts on the intertemporal utility maximization of economic units as well. In this study, the question whether the amount or the price of the money affects the aggregate demand in Turkish economy was examined within the framework of dynamic optimization. The results showed that in Turkish economy where nominal income expectations are high, the resource and loan creation would increase and that when the central bank increase the interest rates to hinder this process, consumption would head up even more. |
| Keywords: | New Neo Classical Synthesis, Consumption, Monetary Policy |
| JEL: | E51 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2015–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:68614&r=cwa |
| By: | Hosnieh Mahoozi |
| Abstract: | Demonstrating the frequency, intensity and disparity of poverty among the various gender and spatial subgroups of Iranian society is the main intention of this paper. Respecting the demands, to the extent allowed by the available data, of SenÕs (1987) capabilities approach to the assessment of human well-being, this paper estimates multidimensional poverty in Iran. This study uses the Alkire-Foster method, which is flexible enough to use in various data and dimensional contexts and is able to capture the intensity as well as the incidence of poverty. In order to estimate disparity of poverty, multilevel regression models have been utilized with the premise that households are nested within provinces. Therefore, the disparity in the incidence of poverty -between and within provinces- was estimated using a multilevel logit regression model, while the variation in the intensity of poverty among the poor was estimated by applying a multilevel linear model. The results reveal a remarkable disparity among different subgroups in Iran in which female-headed households and rural households are heavily disadvantaged compared to their peers in male-head and urban households. |
| Date: | 2015–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qeh:ophiwp:ophiwp095.pdf&r=cwa |
| By: | Elasrag, Hussein |
| Abstract: | Since the beginning of the Syrian crisis, over 6.5 million of the country’s people have been internally displaced and almost 4.4 million are registered refugees, which amounts to about half of Syria’s pre-crisis population. Prior to becoming refugees, many had suffered repeated shocks within Syria, leading them eventually to abandon their assets, property, and capital to seek safety in the neighboring countries. Although many Syrians are registered as refugees with the UNHCR and the authorities, they have few legal rights. While they are able to access public services, the availability of these services is severely constrained due to increased demand. Only a minority are housed in refugee camps where most of their essential material needs are met and financed by the international community. |
| Keywords: | Syrian refugees , Syria ,UNHCR, international community |
| JEL: | J0 J01 J3 J5 |
| Date: | 2015–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:68627&r=cwa |
| By: | Makhkamov Bakhtiyor Shukhratovich |
| Abstract: | In article the role and value of information and communication technologies in Uzbekistan, as engine of all economy, investments promoting attraction to the country, to creation of new workplaces, introduction of progressive technologies in production and management, that is finally – to the stable economic growth and increase of a standard of living are researched. Questions of formation and development of National information system which main objectives is development of telecommunication technologies, networks and infrastructure of communication, creation of information systems of automation of activity of government bodies and the centralized databases in the republic are also considered. Key words: information and communication technologies (ICT), legislative base of ICT, National information system |
| Date: | 2015–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vor:issues:2015-12-12&r=cwa |