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on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Ron W Nielsen |
| Abstract: | Historical economic growth in Asia (excluding Japan) is analysed. It is shown that Unified Growth Theory is contradicted by the data, which were used (but not analysed) during the formulation of this theory. Unified Growth Theory does not explain the mechanism of economic growth. It explains the mechanism of Malthusian stagnation, which did not exist and it explains the mechanism of the transition from stagnation to growth that did not happen. The data show that the economic growth in Asia was never stagnant but hyperbolic. Industrial Revolution did not boost the economic growth in Asia. However, the theory contains also a dangerous and strongly-misleading concept that after a long epoch of stagnation we have now entered the epoch of sustained economic growth, the concept creating the sense of security. The opposite is true. After the epoch of sustained and secure economic growth we have now entered the epoch of a fast-increasing and insecure economic growth. |
| Date: | 2015–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1512.05074&r=cwa |
| By: | Utku Utkulu (Dokuz Eylul University, Economics Department, Turkey); Ramazan Ekinci (Dokuz Eylul University, Economics Department, Turkey) |
| Abstract: | Bu çalışmanın amacı uluslararası emtia piyasalarından kaynaklanan asimetrik ve doğrusal olmayan fiyat hareketlerinin iç fiyatlara geçişkenliğini Türkiye için ölçmektir. Bu amaçla 2003M02-2015M02 dönemine ait aylık bazda(145 gözlem) çeşitli uluslararası emtia fiyatları(petrol ve gıda fiyatları) ve iç fiyatları temsilen tüketici fiyat endeksleri ele alınmıştır. Çalışmanın ekonometrik tahminlemesinde yakın zamanda geliştirilen Doğrusal Olmayan Gecikmesi Dağıtılmış Otoregresif (NARDL) Modeli kullanılmıştır. Böylece uluslararası emtia fiyatlarının pozitif ve negatif “Kısmi Ayrıştırma Toplamları” kullanılarak kısa ve uzun dönem doğrusalsızlık ve asimetrik etkiler eşanlı olarak test edilmektedir. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre uluslararası petrol ve gıda fiyatlarından yurtiçi enflasyon oranlarına doğru asimetrik bir fiyat geçişkenliğinin olduğu sonucuna varılmıştır. Öte yandan, pozitif ve negatif uluslararası emtia fiyat şoklarına karşı iç fiyatların verdiği kısmi tepkiler “Asimetrik Dinamik Hızlandıran” yaklaşımı kullanılarak ölçülmektedir. Buna göre yurtiçi enflasyon oranlarının petrol ve gıda fiyat şoklarına verdiği tepki asimetrik ve sırasıyla 20 ve 15 ay olduğu görülmüştür. ASYMETRIC AND NONLINEAR PASS-THROUGH OF INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY PRICES TO INTERNAL PRICES: NARDL MODEL EVIDENCES FOR TURKEY The aim of this paper is to measure asymetric and nonlinear pass-through of international commodity prices to internal prices in the Turkish case. For this purpose, monthly data set of various international commodity prices(oil and food prices) and internal prices (ie. consumer price indices) fort the period 2003M02-2015M02 (145 observations) are utilized. The econometric estimation of the study is based on the recently developed NARDL Model. This model offers a proper possibility to simultaneously test the short and long-run nonlinearity through positive and negative “Partial Sum Decompositions” of the international commodity prices to internal prices (ie. consumer price indices). According to our findings, it is concluded that there is a pass-through from international oil and food prices to domestic prices or inflation rate in an asymmetrical sense. The NARDL Model, in hand, also allows us to quantify the respective responses of the internal prices to positive and negative commodity price shocks from the “Asymetric Dynamic Multipliers”. Hence, domestic inflation rates’ response to international oil and food prices is asymmetrical respectively in 20-month and 15-month periods. |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tek:wpaper:2015/15&r=cwa |
| By: | Ayyagari , Meghana (George Washington University); Beck, Thorsten (Cass Business School) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides an analysis of financial development and inclusion in developing Asia using data from a wide array of sources. We show that in terms of aggregate measures of financial development, the region as a whole has superior banking sector depth compared to other developing regions; however, this masks a great deal of variation across Asian economies. Furthermore, in terms of financial inclusion, fewer than 27% of adults in developing Asia have an account in a formal financial institution, and only 33% of enterprises report having a line of credit or a loan from a financial institution. Cost, geographic access, and lack of identification are the most commonly reported barriers to financial inclusion that can be addressed by policy makers. |
| Keywords: | financial development; financial inclusion; financial system |
| JEL: | D14 G20 G21 G30 |
| Date: | 2015–09–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:0449&r=cwa |