|
on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Mustafa Faruk Aydin; Yusuf Soner Baskaya; Ufuk Demiroglu |
| Abstract: | Using Turkey’s bilateral trade data with its 91 major trading partners from the 1994-2012 period, this paper investigates the sensitivity of the Turkish export/import coverage ratio to trading partner exchange rate and Gross Domestic Product using panel regressions. Empirical findings indicate that a 1 percent growth in trading partners’ Gross Domestic Product is associated with a 1.6-1.7 percent increase in the coverage ratio, while a 1 percent appreciation in trading partner’s real exchange rate is associated with a 0.94-1.45 percent increase in the coverage ratio. Our estimates are in line with the existing empirical studies that estimate the exchange rate and income elasticities of Turkish imports and exports. |
| Keywords: | Turkish Economy, Coverage Ratio, Trade Elasticities, Trade Performance Measures and Indicators |
| JEL: | F14 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1510&r=all |
| By: | Aslihan Atabek Demirhan; Defne Mutluer Kurul |
| Abstract: | [TR] Son donemde Turkiye ekonomisinin lokomotiflerinden biri olmasina ek olarak cimento, demir-celik, plastik vb. bircok alt sektoru etkilemesi nedeniyle konut sektorundeki gelismeler yakindan takip edilmektedir. Sektorun takibi karar alicilarin zamaninda ve dogru mudahaleler yapmasi acisindan buyuk oneme sahiptir. Bu calismanin amaci ise, ekonomik zaman serilerinin devresel hareketlerini izlemeye olanak sunan bilesik oncu gostergeler yaklasimini kullanarak Turkiye konut sektoru icin oncu gostergeler endeksi olusturmaktir. Konut arz ve talebinde etkili oldugu dusunulen gostergeler arasindan ekonomik ve istatistiksel anlamliligi en yuksek olan degiskenler secilerek konut sektorune iliskin olusturulan bilesik oncu gostergeler endeksinin, konut sektoru gelismelerini bir ceyrek onceden onculedigi gorulmustur. [EN] In the recent years, in addition to its interaction with many industries, housing sector has become as one of the leading sector for the Turkish economy. Hence, monitoring housing sector has an important role for timely and correct response of policy makers. The aim of this study is to construct a leading indicator for the housing sector in Turkey using composite leading indicator approach. Among the basic economic indicators, the most significant variables that possess both statistical and economic sense are chosen for the construction of composite leading indicator for Turkish housing sector. |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1511&r=all |
| By: | Olcay Yucel Culha; Mustafa Utku Ozmen; Erdal Yilmaz |
| Abstract: | [TR] Petrol fiyatlarinda 2014 yilinin ikinci yarisindan itibaren gozlenen ciddi dusus, petrol fiyatlarinin dis denge uzerindeki etkilerine iliskin tartismalari gundeme getirmistir. Soz konusu dusus petrol ihrac eden ulkelerden petrol ithal eden ulkelere reel gelirlerin kaymasina yol acmaktadir. Bu cercevede, bu calismada, ihracatin yaklasik ucte birinin petrol ihrac eden ulkelere, ucte ikisinin ise petrol ithal eden ulkelere yapildigi dikkate alinarak, petrol fiyatlarindaki degisimin Turkiye’nin ihracatini nasil etkileyecegi konusu ele alinmistir. Ilk asamada petrol fiyatlarinin, Turkiye’nin ihracat yaptigi petrol ihrac/ithal eden ulkelerin buyumelerine etkisi analiz edilmis, beklendigi gibi petrol fiyatlarindaki degisimin bu ulkelerin buyumesi uzerindeki etkisinin asimetrik oldugu bulunmustur. Ikinci asamada ise bu ulke gruplari icin buyumenin ihracati nasil etkiledigi ihracat talep fonksiyonu araciligiyla tahmin edildikten sonra, son asamada tahmin edilen petrol fiyati-buyume ve buyume-ihracat esneklikleri kullanilarak, petrol fiyatlarinin ihracat uzerine etkisi hesaplanmistir. Bulgular, mevcut ihracat paylari dikkate alindiginda petrol fiyatlarinin ihracat uzerindeki net etkisinin sinirli olduguna isaret etmektedir. [EN] Substantial decline in oil prices observed since the second half of 2014 has brought forward discussions on the impact of oil prices on the external balance. This decline is expected to shift real income from oil exporter countries to oil importer countries. In this context, in this study, the effect of change in oil prices on Turkey’s exports is discussed taking into account the fact that Turkey’s export to oil exporting countries has approximately one-third share in total exports, while export to oil importing countries has a share of two-thirds. At the first step, the effect of oil prices on economic growth of trade partners of Turkey is analyzed, where countries are grouped according to their net oil export position. As expected, it is found that the effect of oil prices on different country groups’ growth is asymmetric. In the second stage, for two groups of countries, growth-export elasticity through Turkey’s export demand function is estimated. Finally, effect of oil prices on exports is calculated considering different income effects caused by oil price change on each country groups. Results indicate that the net effect of oil prices on the exports is limited considering the current export shares. |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1510&r=all |
| By: | Cuneyt Orman; Bulent Koksal |
| Abstract: | We investigate if and when the leading theories of debt maturity are useful in understanding the maturity choices of nonfinancial firms in a major developing economy, Turkey. Unlike most research, we use a dataset that provides financial information on not only large, publicly-traded firms but also small, privately-held firms across a wide variety of industries. Our strongest finding is that firms that have high leverage also have long maturity. Size, asset maturity, and credit quality are also important, although results depend on the type of firm group considered. The stability of the economic environment as measured by inflation and interest rate volatility also influences debt maturity decisions. Our findings are broadly consistent with the liquidity risk theory. The agency theory is also partially useful in understanding firms' maturity decisions, particularly for medium- and large-sized, publicly-traded firms. The signaling theory is most useful when the sample consists of large, publicly-traded firms. We find little evidence that taxes matter for maturity decisions. Our findings also provide some evidence that borrower-lender relationships might matter for debt maturity structures. |
| Keywords: | Debt maturity structure, Nonfinancial firms, Turkey |
| JEL: | G3 G32 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1521&r=all |
| By: | Vuslat Us |
| Abstract: | [EN] Using bank-level data and random effects model, this paper examines the structure of the Turkish banking sector before and after the global crisis by an ownership breakdown. The selected dependent variables are financial ratios on capital adequacy, asset quality, profitability and income-expenditure structure; while main determinants are overdue loans, overhead costs, consumer loans, government securities, FX open position, bank size and a dummy variable for bank listing. Other determinants include a dummy variable for the adoption of Basel II standards, debt stock, growth, inflation, exchange rate, required reserves and policy rate, which capture the effects of regulations, fiscal policy, macroeconomic conditions and monetary policy on bank structure. Estimation results suggest that ownership plays a key role on the changing structure of Turkish banks, which can be explained by bank-specific determinants as well as macroeconomic conditions and policy-related factors. The results also reveal that banks seem to differ more before the crisis than after the crisis. These findings indicate that bank ownership should be considered as an important variable that is likely to affect the conduct of macro prudential policy and the effectiveness of the monetary policy transmission. [TR] Bu calismada, banka bazinda veri ve rassal etkiler modeli kullanilarak, Turk bankacilik sektorunun kuresel kriz oncesi ve sonrasindaki yapisi mulkiyet ayriminda incelenmektedir. Bagimli degisken olarak sermaye yeterliligi, aktif kalitesi, karlilik ve gelir-gider yapisina iliskin finansal oranlar kullanilirken; bagimsiz degiskenler olarak takipteki krediler, personel giderleri, tuketici kredileri, DIBS portfoyu, doviz acik pozisyonu ve banka buyuklugu ile borsada listelenise yonelik kukla degisken yer almaktadir. Yasal duzenlemeler, maliye politikasi, makroekonomik kosullar ve para politikasinin banka yapisi uzerindeki etkilerini incelemek amaciyla Basel II’ye gecise iliskin kukla degiskenin yani sýra borc stoku, buyume, enflasyon, doviz kuru, zorunlu karsiliklar ve politika faizi diger belirleyiciler olarak calismaya dahil edilmistir. Tahmin sonuclari, banka mulkiyetinin Turk bankacilik sektorunun degisen yapisinda onemli rol oynadigina ve soz konusu degisimin bankaya ozgu belirleyicilere ek olarak makroekonomik kosullar ve politikaya iliskin etkenlerle aciklanabildigine isaret etmektedir. Ayrica, sonuclar bankalarin kriz oncesi donemde kriz sonrasi doneme gore daha cok ayristigina dikkat cekmektedir. Bu bulgular, banka mulkiyetinin makro ihtiyati politikanin yurutulmesini ve parasal aktarim mekanizmasinin etkinligini belirleyen onemli bir degisken olarak ele alinmasi gerektigini gostermektedir. |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1502&r=all |
| By: | Cem Cebi |
| Abstract: | This study aims to measure the size of the government spending multiplier in Turkey for post-2001 financial crisis period within a structural VAR framework. The analysis demonstrates that a positive shock to government spending tends to increase output, tax, real interest rate on impact and the size of the fiscal multiplier is relatively large at first few quarters. The fiscal multiplier reaches a peak value of 1.5 at second quarter and then starts to diminish. Furthermore, investigating the effects of the components of government spending reveals the fact that government investment expenditures, rather than consumption expenditures, have a profound impact on output at first few quarters. However, there is no evidence that multiplier effect of government investment higher than government consumption at the end of the first year. |
| Keywords: | Government spending multiplier, SVAR |
| JEL: | E62 H30 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1515&r=all |
| By: | Aslihan Atabek; Olcay Yucel Culha; Ferya Ogunc |
| Abstract: | [TR] Bu calismada 1997-2013 doneminde Avrupa Birligi’ne (AB) yapilan ihracat ile reel doviz kuru iliskisi, imalat sanayi sektorleri bazinda geleneksel ekonometrik yontemlerden farkli olarak devresel analiz ile ayrintili olarak incelenmiþtir. Devresel analizler ile kurdaki deger kazanma/kaybetme donemleri belirlenmis, kurdaki degisimlere ihracatin verdigi tepkiler analiz edilerek sektorlerin goreli doviz kuru duyarlilik derecesi saptanmistir. Elde edilen bulgular; doviz kuruna en duyarli olan sektorlerin AB’ye ihracat icindeki payinin yaklasik yuzde 26, duyarliligi en dusuk sektorlerin ise yüzde 37 oldugunu ve AB’ye yapilan ihracatta doviz kurunun rekabet gucune etkisinin sinirli duzeyde kaldigini gostermistir. Bu da rekabet gucunu artiracak politikalar gelistirirken fiyat rekabetinden ziyade sektorlere ozgu yapisal unsurlarin ele alinmasi gerektigi gorusunu desteklemektedir. [EN] This study, using cyclical analysis in contrast to the conventional econometric methods, investigates the relationship between Turkish exports to the European Union and the real exchange rate for the 1997-2013 period. We identify the depreciation/appreciation periods using cyclical analysis, and then analyze the responses of the sectoral exports to the exchange rate changes in order to determine the sectoral exchange rate sensitivities in the context of the manufacturing sector. Our results reveal that the share of the most responsive sectors constitutes 26 percent of Turkish exports to the European Union, while the share of the least responsive sectors is 37 percent. This implies that the competitive power of the exchange rates is limited in the case of Turkish exports to the European Union. Our findings are in line with the view that policies should focus on sector-specific structural factors, rather than price competition, in order to improve competitiveness. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1421&r=all |
| By: | Duha T. Altindag (Auburn University); Naci Mocan (Louisiana State University, NBER and IZA) |
| Abstract: | We exploit the randomness generated by a seat allocation mechanism utilized in Parliamentary elections that determines those politicians who get elected from a given district by a small margin, and those who lose. Using detailed information on personal attributes of more than 2,000 elected Members of the Parliament (MPs) and the votes received by each political party in every district and each of the five consecutive Parliamentary elections in Turkey between 1991 and 2011, we show that elected MPs are more likely to switch parties after an election if they faced electoral uncertainty and experienced a narrowly-won victory. The tendency to switch parties goes up as it becomes more lucrative to hold the post of MP. The impact of election uncertainty on party-switching is greater for younger MPs, and for those who are less educated. The propensity to switch due to uncertainty is higher if the MP is a member of the governing party, but only if the seat is valuable (if the majority of the party in the Parliament is slim). Politicians switch parties after an election to improve their ex-ante re-election probability in the following election. Although switching parties during a legislative session (between elections) for personal career concerns creates moral hazard, we find that party-switching MPs are more likely to get elected in the next election. These results point to forward-looking opportunistic behavior of politicians regarding their strategy to win future elections, and they indicate that politicians switch parties primarily for career concerns and for financial benefits that are associated with longer tenure in the Parliament. The results also signify that competition between political parties continues after the election, in the form of gaining seats in the Parliament post- election by transferring elected representatives of competing parties. This constitutes another dimension of the political agency problem. |
| Date: | 2015–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:koc:wpaper:1518&r=all |
| By: | Yahya Kocakale; Hakan Husnu Toprak |
| Abstract: | [TR] Bu notta Turkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankasi (TCMB) tarafindan aylik olarak yayimlanmakta olan reel efektif doviz kuru (REK) endekslerinde kullanilan agirliklarin guncellenmesine iliskin bilgi verilmektedir. Halen yayimlanmakta olan REK endekslerinde 2006-2008 dönemi dis ticaret verileri esas alinarak hesaplanan ulke agirliklari kullanilmaktadir. Ancak soz konusu doneme kiyasla hem dis ticaret hacminin artis gostermesi hem de ticaret ortaklarimizin cesitlenmesi yeni bir calismayi gerekli kilmistir. Bu amacla, hali hazirda yayimlanan endekste 36 olan ulke sayisi yeni endekste 45’e cikarilmistir. Diger taraftan, BIS ve ECB tarafindan uygulanan yonteme paralel olarak, 2003 yilindan baslamak uzere ucer yillik donemler icin agirliklar yeniden hesaplanmis ve her bir donem zincir endeks yontemi ile birlestirilmistir. Ulke sayisindaki artis bolgesel endekslerin hesaplanmasina da imkan tanimistir. [EN] This paper summarizes the study on the updating of the weights used in the real effective exchange rate index (RER) which is published monthly by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT). Currently, country weights are based on “2006-08” trade data. However, the increase of the foreign trade in volume as well as the diversification of our trading partners since then, required an update of the RER coverage. Accordingly, the number of countries in the index is increased from 36 to 45; and following BIS and ECB methodologies, weights for three-year averages starting from 2003 are calculated by chain-linking method. The extension of the country coverage enabled generating regional indices. |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1506&r=all |
| By: | Hatice Bengu Alp; Cihan Yalcin |
| Abstract: | Within the framework of the floating exchange rate regime which was introduced after the 2001 economic crisis, particularly non-financial firms with limited foreign currency (fx) denominated income have reduced the fraction of fx denominated loans in their total liabilities (i.e. liability dollarization rate) in order to avoid the foreign exchange risk. Nevertheless, the liability dollarization rates of Turkish non-financial firms are still very high compared to those of international peers. In the aftermath of the crisis, in general, liability dollarization rates of firms declined significantly along with the improvement in the maturity structure of fx denominated loans. As a result, balance sheet vulnerabilities of the non-financial firms have diminished to a certain extent. Accordingly, despite the sharp contraction in both domestic and foreign demand, the impact of the 2008-2009 global economic crisis on the firms’ activity has been limited with respect to the 2001 economic crisis when the foreign demand was buoyant. The estimations, which were performed by using a large firm level data set compiled by Central Bank of Turkey for the period of 1996-2010 and employing dynamic panel regressions (GMM), show that liability dollarization rates have in general favorably affected the sales and employment growth performance of non-financial firms. This finding suggests that non-financial firms in Turkey have limited access to loans in domestic currency and they circumvent this constraint by borrowing in fx denominated loans. On the other hand, it is estimated that liability dollarization tends to deteriorate the growth performance of the firms with low export shares and high liability dollarization. In sum, the analysis shows that firms would be able to ease their borrowing constraints by enhancing their export shares and hence could have a better growth performance. However, it is also observed that net profit margins of highly liability dollarized firms contract sharply especially during crisis periods due to large depreciations, which would in turn negatively influence the firms’ activities through “balance-sheet channel”. |
| Keywords: | Liability dollarization, Firm growth, Finance constraint, Crisis, Panel data |
| JEL: | L11 D21 G32 E32 C23 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1501&r=all |
| By: | Alexander Knobel (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Alexey Mironov (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | В последнее время на пространстве СНГ все активнее развиваются собственные интеграционные процессы, и одним из возможных и логичных вариантов дальнейшего их развития может стать создание валютного союза некоторыми государствами-членами Содружества. В работе предпринимается попытка теоретического анализа потенциальной готовности стран СНГ к созданию валютного союза с Россией, исходя из предположений и критериев, выработанных в теории оптимальных валютных зон. В первой части работы описывается ряд критериев теории ОВЗ, которые определяют готовность стран к созданию валютного союза, а также некоторые выгоды и издержки от валютного союза. Затем, на основе отобранных теоретических критериев, выделяется ряд макроэкономических показателей, по которым во второй части работы проводится оценка готовности стран СНГ к созданию валютной зоны с Россией. English Abstract: Recently there have been intensively developing integration processes in the CIS area and one of the possible and reasonable scenarios of their future development seems to be the establishment of a monetary union by some CIS countries. This research attempts a theoretical study of the CIS countries’ potential readiness to establish a monetary union with Russia basing on the presumptions and criteria developed in a theory of optimum currency areas. The first part of the research specifies some basic criteria of optimum currency area theory, which define the readiness of countries to establish a monetary union as well as certain benefits and costs of such a union. The second part of the research assesses the readiness of the CIS countries to establish a monetary union with Russia basing on a range of macroeconomic indicators determined by selected theoretical criteria. |
| Keywords: | integration process, CIS, monetary union, Russia, currency |
| JEL: | E42 F33 F36 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:wpaper:136&r=all |
| By: | Babili, Mahmoud |
| Abstract: | Caper spreads widely in the MENA countries, particularly in Syria. About 60 countries trade capers, and the annual growth rate of caper trade is about 6%. Major exporting countries are Turkey, Lebanon, Morocco, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Syria. The price of I Kg caper ready for consumption is about US$ 25 in the USA markets. Syria’s production of caper in 2006 was estimated at 4,000 tons, and formal statistics show that Syria had exported different amounts of caper products before 2007. Caper exportation was oriented towards “preserved-temporarily”, a form that is not suitable for immediate consumption. The relative unite value (RUV) for each product is calculated as the average value of Syrian export unit divided on the average value of international export unit. The reference point or the average of RUV is 1, and if the index reached 1.15 or above, this would mean high level of quality competitiveness. Using the ITC (International Trade Center) database, we found that RUV for Syrian exports of caper preserved temporarily had increased, thus exceeding 1 even during the years of war imposed on Syria. On the other hand, the revealed comparative advantage (RCA) index shows whether the performance of a given exported commodity is higher than other exported commodities in terms of its share in international markets. Thus, if a commodity has a good share in international markets – to be divided on the share of the total Syrian exports in international markets, it can be considered that it has comparative advantage. Applying this index on Syrian caper’s exports of the ITC database, we find that the Syrian caper has a very good comparative advantage. The above findings emphasize the importance of caper, and the urgent need to benefit from it commercially. However, the big gap between the export unit value of caper preserved temporarily and caper ready for consumption must not be ignored; this gap reaches US$ 25 – US$ 45, which highlights the urgent need to export caper as a final product rather than preserved temporarily, thus benefiting from the added value of the processing stages. |
| Keywords: | القبار، سوريا، الصادرات, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Community/Rural/Urban Development, International Relations/Trade, Labor and Human Capital, Marketing, Production Economics, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, |
| Date: | 2015–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:napcwp:209686&r=all |
| By: | Oguz Atuk; Cem Aysoy; Mustafa Utku Ozmen; Cagri Sarikaya |
| Abstract: | Bu calismada Turkiye ekonomisinde TUFE enflasyonunun cikti acigina ne kadar duyarli oldugu sorusuna cevap aranmaktadir. Bu amacla, TUFE’yi olusturan COICOP 5-basamakli 152 alt grup icin Phillips egrileri tahmin edilmistir. Boylelikle cikti aciginin istatistiki ve iktisadi olarak anlamli bir sekilde etkiledigi gruplar belirlenmistir. Ampirik bulgular enflasyon sepetinin yaklasýk ucte birinin cikti acigindan etkilendigini gostermistir. Cikti acigina duyarli olmayan gruplarda ise enflasyonun ithal maliyetlerle oldukca yakin bir iliski sergiledigi gozlenmistir. Sonuclar, Turkiye’de enflasyonun kalici olarak dusurulebilmesi icin cevrim karsiti (countercyclical) politikalarin tek basina yeterli olmayabilecegine isaret etmektedir. |
| Keywords: | Output gap, Inflation, Phillips curve, CPI, Turkey |
| JEL: | C13 C51 E31 E32 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1437&r=all |
| By: | Binnur Balkan; Suleyman Hilmi Kal; Semih Tumen |
| Abstract: | [TR] Bu calisma akaryakit fiyatlarinin taze meyve-sebze toptan fiyatlari uzerindeki etkilerini incelemektedir. Akaryakit fiyatlarinin diger ekonomik degiskenler ve soklar ile icsel hareket etme olasiligi, soz konusu etkilerin ekonometrik olarak tanimlanmasini zorlastirmaktadir. Bu sorunu ortadan kaldirmak icin, 22 Eylül 2012 tarihinde yürürlüge giren OTV yasasinin akaryakit fiyatlarinda meydana getirdigi dissal artistan faydalanilmistir. OTV yasasi ile birlikte, Turkiye’de taze meyve- sebze uretimi ile kamyonla tasinan meyve-sebzeye baglilik oranlarinda gozlemlenen bolgesel farkliliklar da ekonometrik analizde kullanilmistir. Sonuc olarak, akaryakit fiyatindaki artislarin nakliye maliyetleri kanali ile toptan taze meyve-sebze fiyatlari üzerinde artirici yonde etkisinin oldugu gosterilmistir. Soz konusu etkinin oldukca guclu, hatta bire birden fazla olabilecegi de ifade edilmistir. [EN] We ask whether fuel- price increases are transmitted to the wholesale prices of truck-transported fresh fruits and vegetables. Econometric identification of this pass-through effect can be problematic because fuel price increases might be correlated with other economic shocks that might also affect the prices of fresh produce. To deal with this identification problem, we use a fuel-tax reform from Turkey that leads to an exogenous upward shift in fuel prices. In designing our empirical strategy, we also exploit the geographical variation in Turkey in terms of the degree of reliance on locally produced versus truck-transported fresh fruits and vegetables. Using a difference-in-differences model, we find that the causal role of the transportation - cost channel is significant. Specifically, we document that fuel -price increases have a potential to lead to more-than-one-for-one increases in the wholesale prices of fresh produce |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1508&r=all |
| By: | Babili, Mahmoud Jr |
| Abstract: | Caper spreads widely in the MENA countries, particularly in Syria. About 60 countries trade capers, and the annual growth rate of caper trade is about 6%. Major exporting countries are Turkey, Lebanon, Morocco, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Syria. The price of I Kg caper ready for consumption is about US$ 25 in the USA markets. Syria’s production of caper in 2006 was estimated at 4,000 tons, and formal statistics show that Syria had exported different amounts of caper products before 2007. Caper exportation was oriented towards “preserved-temporarily”, a form that is not suitable for immediate consumption. The relative unite value (RUV) for each product is calculated as the average value of Syrian export unit divided on the average value of international export unit. The reference point or the average of RUV is 1, and if the index reached 1.15 or above, this would mean high level of quality competitiveness. Using the ITC (International Trade Center) database, we found that RUV for Syrian exports of caper preserved temporarily had increased, thus exceeding 1 even during the years of war imposed on Syria. On the other hand, the revealed comparative advantage (RCA) index shows whether the performance of a given exported commodity is higher than other exported commodities in terms of its share in international markets. Thus, if a commodity has a good share in international markets – to be divided on the share of the total Syrian exports in international markets, it can be considered that it has comparative advantage. Applying this index on Syrian caper’s exports of the ITC database, we find that the Syrian caper has a very good comparative advantage. The above findings emphasize the importance of caper, and the urgent need to benefit from it commercially. However, the big gap between the export unit value of caper preserved temporarily and caper ready for consumption must not be ignored; this gap reaches US$ 25 – US$ 45, which highlights the urgent need to export caper as a final product rather than preserved temporarily, thus benefiting from the added value of the processing stages. |
| Keywords: | Syria, caper, export, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Community/Rural/Urban Development, International Relations/Trade, Labor and Human Capital, Marketing, Production Economics, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, |
| Date: | 2015–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:napcwp:209685&r=all |
| By: | Oguz Atuk; Mustafa Utku Ozmen |
| Abstract: | Tobacco taxation policy is not only a tool for discouraging smokers but also an important source of budgetary income. Given that many entities are interested in tobacco policy ranging from the fiscal authority to health authority, from firms to economic policy authority the design of the appropriate tax scheme is of utmost importance. The current tobacco taxation scheme in Turkey is very complex and contains incentives both for firms and consumers to deviate from a certain equilibrium. Therefore, appropriate tax policy should take into account firm pricing strategy, consumer behavior, health and industry related issues as well as fiscal concerns. With this perspective, using the current framework in Turkey, this paper proposes a strategy for appropriate tobacco taxation through a simulation analysis. The strategy can be formulized as the tax combination yielding minimum average price change, for a given tax revenue and the desired sectoral composition. Such a tax scheme will not only reduce price volatility but will also improve welfare of the entire society through lowering inflation given the high share of tobacco products in consumption basket. |
| Keywords: | Tobacco products, Taxation, Firm strategy, Consumer behaviour, Turkey |
| JEL: | E22 H21 H31 H32 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1518&r=all |
| By: | Okan Eren; Mustafa Kilinc |
| Abstract: | [TR] Kuresel finansal kriz sonrasinda 2010 ve 2011 yillarinda Turkiye’de hizli bir dis acik artisi gerceklesmistir. Bu donemde Turkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankasi, finansal istikrari iceren yeni bir politika cercevesi uygulamaya koymus ve diger ekonomi kurumlarinin aldigi onlemlerin de katkisi ile dis acikta bir dengelenme yasanmistir. Bu dengelenmenin reel ve cari olarak incelenmesi, analizlerde dis ticaret hadlerindeki hareketlerin etkisini ayristirmakta ve alinan tedbirlerin sonuclarinin daha dogru bir bicimde degerlendirilmesine imkan saglamaktadir. Bu not, 1998 sonrasi donem incelendiginde, Turkiye’nin dis ticaret hadlerinde onemli bozulmalar oldugunu ve son donemde dis acikta gozlenen yuksek seyirde bu gelismenin etkili oldugunu gostermektedir. Alinan politika tedbirlerinin de katkisiyla 2011 sonrasinda reel dis acikta ciddi bir iyilesme saglanmis ve dis acik 2014 ikinci ceyregi itibariyla donem ortalamasina kadar gerilemistir. Fakat cari dis acik ayni donemde azaliyor olsa da yasanan olumsuz dis ticaret haddi gelismeleri sebebi ile donem ortalamasinin oldukca uzerinde gerceklesmistir. Dis ticaret hadleri ayrintili incelendiginde, hadlerdeki bozulmada hem ihracat fiyatlarindaki dususlerin hem de ithalat fiyatlarindaki, ozellikle enerji kaynakli, artislarin etkili oldugu gozlenmektedir. Bu cercevede cari dis acikta kalici iyilesmeler saglanmasi icin, ihracat urunlerinde fiyatlama gucu yuksek urunlerin payini artiracak ve ithal enerji bagimliligini azaltacak tedbirlerin onemli politika alanlariolabilecegi degerlendirilmektedir. [EN] In the aftermath of the global financial crisis Turkey experienced a rapid deterioration in its current account balance in 2010 and 2011. In the process, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey devised a new policy framework that incorporated financial stability concerns and also with the contribution of measures taken by the other regulatory authorities the external deficit improved in the following years. Analyzing this rebalancing process in terms of current and real prices helps us understand the extent to which such policies successfully reduced the deficit. This note shows that there has been a significant fall in the terms of trade of Turkey after 1998 and this fall led to high levels of trade deficit as observed in the last couple of years. With the help of recent policy measures, the trade deficit in real terms has improved considerably and fell up to its long-term average as of the second quarter of 2014. In the same period, even though the nominal trade deficit was decreasing it stayed significantly above its long-term average due to the negative impact of the terms of trade movements. At a closer look, both a fall in export prices and a rise in import prices which is mostly associated with energy prices seem to have delivered the observed behavior of terms of trade. In this framework, this note reveals the importance of the policies that will increase the share of exported goods with high pricing power as well as the policies that will reduce the dependence on foreign energy resources. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1420&r=all |
| By: | Evrim Ýmer Ertunga; Ýbrahim Unalmis |
| Abstract: | [TR] Yagis miktarinin az oldugu donemlerde hidroelektrik uretiminde dusus beklenir. Bu donemlerde elektrik talebinin karsilanmasi icin alternatif enerji kaynaklarina basvurulmasi gerekmektedir. Bu kaynaklarin bazilarinin ithal ediliyor olmasi ise kaynaklar arasi ikameyi, ikamenin buyuklugunu ve zamanlamasini iktisadi acidan daha onemli hale getirmektedir. Bu calismada kurak gecen donemlerde elektrik uretim kaynaklari arasindaki ikamenin yapisi analiz edilmekte ve bunun dis ticaret dengesi uzerindeki olasi sonuclari tartisilmaktadir. Sonuclar dusuk yagis miktarinin, beklendigi gibi, hidroelektrik uretiminde azalmaya yol actigini gostermektedir. Hidroelektrik uretimdeki bu azalma kýsa vadede dogal gaz tarafindan ikame edilse de orta vadede her iki kaynagi da komur ikame etmektedir. Dogal gazin tamamina yakini ithal edildiginden, calismanin sonuclari kurakligin Turkiye’nin dis ticareti uzerindeki enerji kaynakli olumsuz etkisinin buyuk olcude gecici olduguna isaret etmektedir. [EN] The periods with a low level of rainfall is expected to be associated with a decline in hydroelectricity production. In these periods, the electricity needs have to be met with alternative energy sources. If some of these energy sources are imported, the degree and the timing of the substitution between alternative sources become economically important parameters. This study analyses the substitution between alternative sources of electricity production in times of drought and discusses its possible effect on Turkey’s trade balance. Empirical findings show that, as expected, a significant decline in the level of rainfall leads to a reduction in hydroelectricity production. In the short run, the hydroelectricity production is substituted with the electricity production in natural gas power plants. However, coal substitutes both of these resources in the medium to long run. Since natural gas is imported from abroad, we argue that the effect of drought on Turkey’s trade balance due to energy imports would be temporary. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1415&r=all |
| By: | Tugrul Gurgur; Zubeyir Kilinc |
| Abstract: | [EN] The literature provides strong evidence that the consumer confidence can play an important role in predicting future consumption; therefore, examining the drivers of the consumer confidence is crucial to the policymakers. This study investigates the long-run (cointegrating) and short-run relationship between the consumer confidence and main financial and macroeconomic variables. We find that exchange rate, interest rates, unemployment rate and consumer prices do affect consumer confidence both in the long-run and the short-run, though the short-run impacts of exchange rate and consumer prices are more pronounced. [TR] Iktisat yazini, tuketici guven endeksinin tuketim harcamalarini tahmin edebildigine iliskin guclu kanitlar sunmaktadir. Dolayisiyla guven endeksini aciklayan unsurlarin ve bu unsurlarin nispi etkilerinin bilinmesi politika yapicilari icin onem arz etmektedir. Bu calismada Turkiye’deki tuketici guven endeksi ile baslica finansal ve makroekonomik degiskenler arasindaki kisa ve uzun vadeli iliski arastirilmistir. Analiz sonucunda tuketici guveninin gerek kisa vadede gerekse uzun vadede doviz kuru, tuketici kredileri faizi, issizlik orani ve tuketici fiyatlarindan etkilendigi ve kisa vadede ozellikle doviz kuru ve tuketici fiyatlarinin etkisinin daha kuvvetli oldugu bulunmustur. |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1517&r=all |
| By: | Caglar Yunculer |
| Abstract: | [EN] Adjusting the economic data for seasonal and calendar effects is of crucial importance for understanding the underlying information for the time series under consideration. However, irregular factors such as bridging days may impede the analysts perform the most accurate seasonal adjustment and lead to wrong adjusted values. In this study we aim to identify the impact of bridging days on Industrial Production Index (IPI) in Turkey by also taking into account the time of the year the bridging days fall. The results show that while national holiday bridging days do not affect IPI, religious holiday bridging days do. However, the magnitude of impact changes according to the season of the year. The production loss impact during a religious holiday in the high season (June -October) is around 40 percent, it is reduced by half during the low season. [TR] Iktisadi faaliyete iliskin verilerin ana egilimlerini daha iyi anlamak icin ilgili zaman serisi verilerinin mevsim ve takvim etkilerinden arindirilmasi buyuk onem arz etmektedir. Ancak kopru gunu gibi duzensiz, analiz yapanlarin en dogru mevsimsellikten arindirmayi yapmalarina engel teskil edebilmekte ve yanlis arindirilmis sonuclar elde etmelerine yol acabilmektedir. Bu calismada kopru gunlerinin Sanayi Uretim Endeksi (SUE) uzerine etkilerinin, kopru gunlerinin hangi mevsime denk geldigi de dikkate alinarak hesaplanmasi amaclanmaktadir. Sonuclar milli bayramlara denk gelen kopru gunlerinin SUE’yi etkilemedigini, ancak dini bayramlara denk gelen kopru gunlerinin etkiledigini ortaya koymaktadir. Ancak bu etkinin buyuklugunun kopru gununun denk dustugu sezona gore degistigi tespit edilmistir. Uretim kaybi yaz turizmi sezonuna (Haziran – Ekim) denk gelen kopru gunlerinde normal bir calisma gunune gore yuzde 40 azalirken, bu azalis yilin kalan donemlerinde bu degerin yarisina inmektedir. |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1515&r=all |
| By: | Lamara Qoqiauri (Doctor of Economy. True Member of the Academy of Economic Sciences of Georgia and Scientific Academy of New York. Director of nongovernmental organization: Foundation of the Financial-Investment Strategy and Policy) |
| Abstract: | Each foreign investor today considers Georgia with its investment environment to be one of the most attractive countries. This is not a casual issue. Our country, with effective economical policy of the government, makes maximal attempts for avoiding multiple obstacles of forming favorable investment climate giving impulses to its actualization.My present work is dedicated to the problematic issues of forming investment climate favorable and attractive to the foreign investors, primary ranges of the industrial system – enterprises and organizations; I tried to represent the factors influencing upon formation of attractive investment environment and to give their new grouping and analyzing. In the preseneted work the following issues are researched: Investment climate and investment attractiveness from theoretical perspective, content and characteristic of principle factors of forming investment climate of the country: Economical factors and their role in creation of investment climate; Influence of administrative-legislative factors upon formation of the investment climate; Influence of social-economical factors upon investment climate; Influence of resources and technical capabilities upon investment climate, within possible bounds,I included practical materials selected for strengthening my theoretical postulates. Consideration of theoretical aspects forming investment climate discussed in the work as well as generalization of four blocks concerning investment climate and the outhors’s recommenations: •to abstain from adoption of laws setting unjustified restrictions to local and foreign investors and delay their development;•avoidance of regulations, restricting competition at the particular markets and promoting separate companies;•Harmonization of Georgian legislation with EU legislation and regulations of international legislative institutions;•Special attention to the environmental issues; share of investments in the basic stock its increase for environmental protection and rational utilization of natural resources;•revision of legislative and regulatory framework of environmental and sanitary-epidemiology monitoring. •solvation and arrangement of rights related to land use, settlement policy and competences of local residents as well as issues related to compensation, will help local and fereign investors to implement investment projects, create attractive investment climate in Georgia and activate investment processes. |
| Keywords: | Economical growth, Investment climate, investment attractiveness, macro-economy stability, legislative base, business, partner fund. |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:ibmpro:3105379&r=all |
| By: | Oguz Aslaner; Ugur Ciplak; Hakan Kara; Doruk Kucuksarac |
| Abstract: | Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) designed and implemented a new scheme since end-2011, called reserve option mechanism (ROM), in order to alleviate the adverse impact of capital flow volatility on the domestic economy. Although there are numerous studies on the mechanics of ROM, there has been no attempt to investigate the determinants of the ROM utilization in practice. In this note, we aim to fill this gap by using bank-level data to assess the behavioral aspects of ROM. Our results suggest that the relative cost of Turkish lira funding to foreign currency funding, as well as the reserve option coefficients set by the CBRT, largely explains the variations in the ROM utilization. In this context, we find that the most relevant proxy for the cost of Turkish lira funding for banks is overnight money market interest rates and the cost of weighted average CBRT funding. Moreover, foreign currency liquidity does not seem to be a significant parameter in driving the utilization of ROM. In light of these findings, we argue that the systematic policy induced movements in the short term domestic interest rates—higher during outflows, lower during inflows—may undermine the automatic stabilizer feature of ROM. In the conclusion part, we propose an adjustment in the remuneration of reserve requirements to strengthen the automatic stabilizer effect of ROM. |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy, Reserve Requirements, Capital flows, Financial Stability |
| JEL: | E52 E58 F31 F32 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1438&r=all |
| By: | Maya Grigolia; Lasha Labadze; Pavol Minarik; Alena Zemplinerova; Marek Vokoun |
| Abstract: | This report has been prepared in the framework of the project “Transfer of know-how to small and mid-size businesses” of the International Visegrad Fund (IVF) and USAID. It summarizes the conditions of the SME sector (small and medium size enterprises) in Georgia, identifies the main problems in their development and provides recommendations for further interventions based on the Czech experience, existing literature and a survey implemented among SME stakeholders.Georgia generally receives favorable evaluations of its business environment. It ranks high in indices of economic freedom and is among the top countries with respect to ease of starting and doing business. On the other hand, the SME sector suffers from several problems. The most serious obstacle to SME development seems to be in the area of finance; access to finance is difficult for SMEs and the cost of credit is high. Human capital and innovations are among the weak points of Georgian SMEs as well.The different shortcomings of the environment and markets call for different interventions. The paper is roadmap of concrete activities – it contains a set of recommendations to support SMEs development drawn on three different sources: first, the theoretical foundations of entrepreneurship policy, second, the Czech experience and know-how in the SME sector, and finally, the ideas of local experts and stakeholders generated during interviews and workshops.Activities and recommendations have been divided into “generic,” which relate to a particular determinant of business environment and have an impact across industries and sectors such as access to financing, education, developing skills training, R&D, innovation, export strategy, start-ups, and those which are “sector-specific,” such as banking, health and agriculture. Political stability, the main problem in Georgia, is beyond the scope of possible interventions. |
| Keywords: | small businesses, competition, liberalization, innovation, venture capital, business financing, skills and education |
| JEL: | D04 F23 L26 L30 M13 O25 O00 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sec:cnrepo:0123&r=all |
| By: | Aslihan Atabek Demirhan |
| Abstract: | Up to date, Turkey’s export performance has been analyzed from macro perspective extensively. However, far too little attention has been paid to firm-level analysis contrary to ongoing and growing empirical literature. Using firm-level data of manufacturing sector during the period 1989-2010, this paper explored the export behavior of Turkish firms. The preliminary analysis revealed the superiority of exporting firms over non-exporters. Both self-selection and learning-by-exporting are found to be valid explanation for the source of this observed export premium. Dynamic discrete choice model results show that Turkish manufacturing firms are facing with export market entry costs and those costs are important determinants of the firms’ export propensity. Besides, it is observed that crises lead to changes in those entry costs and consequently changes in the export behavior of the firms. |
| Keywords: | Export behavior, Firm heterogeneity, Firm-level analysis, Micro econometrics, Turkey |
| JEL: | C25 C22 F14 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1522&r=all |
| By: | Cengiz Tunc; Abdullah Yavas |
| Abstract: | The private saving rate in Turkey has decreased substantially since 2000. In this study, we investigate the determinants of the private saving rate in Turkey, with a special focus on the role of mortgage debt. We find a strong and robust negative effect of mortgage credit growth on private saving rate. Nonmortgage consumer credit growth also has a negative and robust effect on private saving rate, though its effect is smaller than that of mortgage credit. Business credit growth, on the other hand, has a positive impact on private saving rate. Our results provide strong support for the argument that the high growth rate of consumer credit is a primary reason for the recent decrease in private saving rate in Turkey. We also find that private saving rate displays strong persistence, and public saving rate partially crowds out private saving rate. In addition, per capita real income growth rate and macroeconomic uncertainty have positive impact on private saving rate. |
| Keywords: | Saving, Mortgage Debt |
| JEL: | E21 G21 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1524&r=all |
| By: | Cevriye Aysoy; Duygu Halim Kirli; Semih Tumen |
| Abstract: | [TR] Taze meyve ve sebze piyasasinda urunler ureticiden perakendeciye genellikle aracilar vasitasiyla iletilmektedir. Bu aracilarin, ozellikle de kayit disi olanlarin varligi, gida fiyatlarinda yukari yonlu baski olusturan piyasa noksanliklari olusturmaktadir. Bu calismada, sozkonusu noksanliklarin giderilmesinin gida fiyatlarini dusurecegi onermesi ekonometrik yontemlerle sinanmaktadir. Kullandigimiz veri, Turkiye’de taze meyve ve sebze piyasasinda tedarik zinciri duzenlemelerine yonelik bir politika reformuna dayanmaktadir. 1 Ocak 2012 tarihinde yururluge giren ve kamuoyunda “Hal Yasasi” olarak da bilinen yasal duzenleme, taze meyve-sebze piyasasindaki tedarik zinciri engellerini dissal olarak azaltmistir. Bu dissal politika mudahalesinin mumkun kildigi yari deneysel yontemler kullanilarak soz konusu politika reformunun taze meyve ve sebze toptan fiyatlarini onemli oranda dusurdugu, ancak perakende fiyatlarda anlamli bir degisime yol acmadigi gosterilmektedir. Bu sonuclar, taze meyve ve sebze piyasasýnda perakendeci, toptanci ve ureticilerin fiyatlama davranislari arasinda onemli bir asimetrinin var oldugunu gostermektedir. [EN] The market for fresh food is often characterized by a large number of intermediaries delivering the product from the farmer to the retailer. The existence of these intermediaries, especially the informal ones, is often claimed to introduce market frictions that push fresh food prices up. We test the hypothesis that scaling down these frictions reduces the level of prices. Our data comes from a policy reform in Turkey concerning the supply chain regulations in the market for fresh fruits and vegetables. The policy reform, which is enacted on January 1st 2012, resembles a natural experiment that exogenously reduces the supply chain barriers in the market for fresh fruits and vegetables. Using quasi-experimental methods, we show that the policy reform has strikingly reduced the fresh food prices in the wholesale market, while there is almost no price effect in the retail market. Our results suggest that there is significant asymmetry between the pricing behavior of retailers, wholesalers, and farmers in the market for fresh fruits and vegetables. |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1503&r=all |
| By: | K. Azim Ozdemir |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the importance of interest rate shocks in explaining macroeconomic dynamics during the relatively low-inflation period in Turkey after mid-2000s. For this purpose, we compute impulse response functions using not only VAR models but also multi-step ahead forecast regressions, which are referred as Local Projections. Estimations are carried out on two different monthly data sets, a set of conventional series and a newly constructed set of series for measuring real GDP, the price level and the exchange market pressure in Turkey. Impulse responses obtained from newly constructed series exhibit more plausible dynamics than the conventional series after an interest rate shock. Moreover, results from Local Projections show remarkably similar dynamic responses to those obtained from the VAR models. This finding can be interpreted as an evidence that the identified VAR models successfully capture the true relationships among the variables. |
| Keywords: | Monetary Policy, Identification, VAR, Local Projections, Interpolation |
| JEL: | C32 E52 C82 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1504&r=all |
| By: | Fethi Ogunc; Cagri Sarikaya |
| Abstract: | [TR] Turkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankasi (TCMB) 2010 yilinin sonlarindan itibaren politika araclarini cesitlendirerek enflasyonun yaninda kredileri de icerecek sekilde genisletilmis bir politika cercevesi benimsemistir. Para politikasi uygulamasindaki bu degisim, aktarim mekanizmasinda kredilerin rolunun ne oldugu sorusunu gundeme getirmistir. Finansal unsurlarin is cevrimlerinin belirleyicilerinden biri oldugu dusuncesinden hareketle kredi-enflasyon iliskisinin ele alindigi bu calismada, cesitli kredi degiskenlerinin (tuketici, ticari, vb.) Phillips egrisi denklemlerindeki anlamliligi sinanmistir. Enflasyon kontrolunde arac secimi ve mevcut para politikasinin etki alani konularinda faydali olabilecek sonuclar söyle ozetlenebilir: (i) Krediler enflasyonu acýklamada herhangi bir bilgi kaybi olmaksizin cikti acigina alternatif olabilecegi gibi ek bilgi de saglayabilmektedir. (ii) Kredilerin enflasyonu etkileme ufku bir bucuk yila kadar ulasabilmektedir. (iii) Kredi tanimlari arasinda gerek enflasyonu aciklama gucu gerekse dogrudan gozlenebilirlik kistaslariyla net kredi kullanimi gostergesi one cýkmaktadir. (iv) Cikti acigindaki degisim ve kredi ivmesi (net kredi kullanimindaki degisim) de enflasyonu etkileyebilmektedir. (v) TL bazinda esit tutardaki kredi artislarinin tuketici kredileri icin ticari kredilere kiyasla daha yuksek bir enflasyonist etkisi oldugu tahmin edilmektedir. (vi) Cikti acigi tahmin edilirken kredi gelismelerinin de dikkate alinmasi is cevriminin daha iyi resmedilmesini saglayabilecektir. [EN] Central Bank of Turkey has adopted an extended policy framework since 2010 by introducing new tools to target credit growth besides inflation. This alteration in monetary policy has raised a question about the role of credit in monetary transmission. With the motivation that financial factors are one of the key determinants of the business cycle, this study aims to analyze the relationship between credit and inflation by testing the statistical significance of various credit variables in the Philips curve equation. The main findings concerning tool selection for price stability and effectiveness of monetary policy can be listed as follows: (i) Credit variables not only serve as an alternative to output gap in explaining inflation dynamics without any loss of information but also provide extra information in some cases. (ii) The impact horizon of credit on inflation can be as long as one and a half year. (iii) Net credit use comes forward among other definitions of credit with its observability (real-time property) and ability to explain inflation. (iv) A change in output gap or credit impulse (change in net credit use) can also influence inflation. (v) For an equal rise in TL terms, consumer credits are estimated to be more inflationary than commercial credits. (vi) The use of credit developments in the estimation of output gap may yield to better representation of the business cycle. |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1512&r=all |
| By: | A. Hakan Kara |
| Abstract: | [EN] Central Bank of Turkey (CBT) has been implementing a multi-instrument monetary policy strategy within a wide interest rate corridor since 2010. In this approach, composition of the central bank liquidity provision is an important component of the policy stance. Therefore, interpreting the changes in the monetary policy decisions necessitates an understanding of the practical implementation of monetary policy. By presenting a simplified exposition of the CBT’s operational framework, this note aims to answer questions such as (i) How are the short term interest rates determined? (ii) What is the implication of a change in the funding composition? (iii) Which interest rate is more relevant for the monetary transmission mechanism? We attempt to address these questions to provide some insight into the assessment of the monetary policy stance. |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1513&r=all |
| By: | Fatih Akcelik; Burc Tuger |
| Abstract: | [TR] Uluslararasi hububat fiyatlariyla yurt ici fiyatlar arasindaki iliskinin incelendigi bu calismada, iki fiyat serisi arasinda uzun vadeli bir iliskinin olmadigi bulunmustur. Kisa vadede ise, Ocak 2003-Eylul 2014 doneminde uluslararasi hububat fiyatlarindaki yuzde 10’luk artisin (azalisin) tuketici enflasyonunda ortalama 0,084 puanlik artisa (azalisa) neden oldugu gozlenmistir. Ancak yakin donemde bu etkinin onemli oranda azaldigi bulgulanmistir. Bu durum, son yillarda hububat fiyatlari kaynakli enflasyon artisinin yurt ici arz ve talep kosullarindan kaynaklandigina isaret etmektedir. [EN] In this study, we examine the relationship between domestic prices and international grain prices, and we find out that there is no long-term (cointegrating) relationship between these two price series. In the short-term, we observe that 10 percent increase (decrease) in international grain prices lead to a 0.084 points increase (decrease) in consumer price inflation on average in the January 2003-September 2014 period. However, we document that this effect has significantly declined recently. Thereby, we conclude that recent increase in inflation which is led by increases in the price of grains; is mostly due to domestic supply and demand conditions of grains. |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1505&r=all |
| By: | Deren Unalmis; Ibrahim Unalmis |
| Abstract: | [TR] Turkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankasi (TCMB) tarafindan 21 Ekim 2014’te yapilan basin duyurusunda belirtildigi uzere TL zorunlu karsiliklara Kasim 2014’ten itibaren faiz odenmektedir. Soz konusu uygulama zorunlu karsilik (ZK) tutmanin maliyetini azalttigindan uygulamanin mevduat faizleri, kredi faizleri ve ZK’ya tabi kuruluslarin karliligi uzerinde etkili olabilecei dusunulmektedir. Bununla birlikte odenecek faizin cekirdek yukumluluk oranina gore banka bazinda farklilik gostermesi uygulamayi makro-ihtiyati politikalar acisindan onemli kilmaktadir. Bu calisma ilk olarak ZK’ya faiz odenmesinin yarattigi maliyet dusurucu etkiyi arindiran bir formul sunmaktadir. Ardindan yeni ZK faizi uygulamasinin detaylari aktarilmakta ve ZK’ya faiz odenmesinin ekonomiyi ve piyasa faizlerini hangi aktarim kanallari uzerinden etkileyebilecegi tartisilmaktadir. Son olarak yeni politika aracinin piyasa oyunculari tarafindan hizli ve dogru bir sekilde fiyatlanip fiyatlanmadiginin anlasilmasi acisindan aciklama sonrasi hisse senedi fiyatlarindaki gelismeler incelenmektedir. Bulgular piyasalarin yeni politika uygulamasini hizli ve etkin bir sekilde fiyatladigini gostermektedir. Beklendigi sekilde cekirdek yukumluluk orani yuksek bankalarin hisse senedi fiyatlari duyuru sonrasinda daha hizli artmaktadir. [EN] As has been stated in a recent press release by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, (dated October 21, 2014) TRL reserve requirements are remunerated starting from November 2014. Since remuneration reduces the funding cost of reserve requirements, it has the potential to affect deposit rates, loan rates and the profitability of financial institutions who are obliged to keep required reserves. Besides, since the degree of remuneration is linked to banks’ core liability/credit ratio, it can be considered as a macroprudential policy tool. This study first presents a formula to eliminate the cost effect of remuneration on the reserve requirement ratio. Next, the study details the new remuneration system and discusses the transmission channels of the remuneration policy on the economy. Finally, it analyses the behavior of financial market participants in pricing the equity prices in response to the remuneration announcement. It is demonstrated that markets price the new policy in fast and effective manner. As expected, the banks with larger core liability/credit ratio are affected more positively relative to their peers. |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1501&r=all |
| By: | Altan Aldan; Hatice Burcu Gurcihan Yunculer |
| Abstract: | [TR] Turkiye isgucu piyasasi verileri incelendiginde isgucune katilim ve istihdam arasindaki guclu iliski dikkat cekmektedir. Bu iliski istihdamdaki degisimin sektorel kaynagýna gore farklilik gostermektedir. Bu not istihdam ve isgucu arasindaki iliskiyi irdeleyerek bu farkliliklari ortaya koymayi amaclamaktadir. Ampirik bulgular, kisa donemde, insaat sektorundeki istihdam gelismelerinin, hizmet ve sanayi sektorlerine kiyasla, isgucu ile daha zayif ve dolayisiyla issizlik ile daha guclu bir iliski icinde olduguna isaret etmektedir. Diger bir ifadeyle, iktisadi faaliyetteki hizlanma (yavaslama) insaat sektorunden geldigi olcude issizligi azaltan (arttiran) etkisi daha belirgin olmaktadir. [EN] Analysis of the Turkish labor market data reveals a strong correlation between labor force participation and employment. The magnitude of this correlation differs with respect to the industry that leads the change in employment. This note aims to address these sector specific differences. Empirical evidence indicates that, in the short-run, compared with employment in industry and services sectors, employment in the construction sector exhibits a weaker (stronger) association with labor force (unemployment). In other words, to the extent that pick-up (slow down) in economic activity is led by the construction sector, its positive (adverse) impact on unemployment is more pronounced. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1418&r=all |
| By: | Hatice Burcu Gurcihan Yunculer; Fethi Ogunc |
| Abstract: | Maliyet yonlu unsurlardaki gelismeler zaman zaman tuketici fiyatlarindaki degisimin onemli bir kismini olusturmasina ragmen, Turkiye’ye dair iktisadi yazinda bu baskilarin boyutunu olcmeye yonelik kapsamli bir calisma mevcut degildir. Bu calismada TUIK Yillik Sanayi ve Hizmet Ýstatistikleri mikro veri seti kullanilarak sektorler itibariyla (i) ana maliyet unsurlarinin (aramali, personel, finansman vs. gibi) firma maliyeti icindeki paylari elde edilmekte ve (ii) TUFE ve hizmet enflasyonunda maliyet yonlu baskilarin boyutunu olcmeye yonelik endeksler hesaplanmaktadir. Bulgular, tarim disi sektorde faaliyet gosteren, 20 ve uzerinde (20+) istihdama sahip firmalarin maliyet yapisinda en yuksek paya sahip giderlerin hammadde, personel ve faaliyetle ilgili genel isletme giderleri olduguna isaret etmektedir. Analize konu olan 2006C1-2014C3 doneminde maliyet enflasyonundaki artisa en yuksek katki soz konusu gider kalemlerinden gelmistir. 20+ istihdamý olan girisimler icin finansman giderlerinin payinin ortalamada gorece dusuk olmasi, bu buyuklukteki firmalar icin isletme sermayesi kanalinin incelenen donemde guclu bir kanal olmadigi yonunde sinyal vermektedir. Bulgular tuketici ve hizmet enflasyonu icin olusturulan maliyet gostergelerinin, bu sektorlerdeki maliyet baskilarinin yonu, boyutu ve kaynagi hakkinda fikir verme acisindan faydali gostergeler olduguna isaret etmektedir. Tuketici enflasyonuna yonelik maliyet artisinin temel belirleyicileri olarak hammadde fiyatlari ve isgucu giderleri dikkat cekerken, hizmet sektoru ozelinde isgucu maliyetlerinin onemi artmakta, isgucu ve hammadde giderlerine ek olarak faaliyetle ilgili genel isletme giderleri de onemli bir unsur olarak one cikmaktadir. |
| Keywords: | Inflation, Cost-push factors, Turkish economy, Firm cost structure |
| JEL: | E31 D24 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1503&r=all |
| By: | Okan Eren |
| Abstract: | [TR] Bu calisma, Turkiye’nin altin haric ihracat ve ithalat birim deger endekslerinde 2003 Ocak - 2015 Ocak doneminde gerceklesen degisimlere, parite (dis ticarette kullanilan para birimlerinin ABD dolari cinsinden degeri) ve enerji fiyatlarindaki degisimin katkisini hesaplamaktadir. Adý gecen donemde altin haric ihracat (ithalat) fiyatlarindaki yillik degisimin ortalamasi yuzde 4,5 (5,0) civarinda gerceklesirken enerji fiyatlarinin ve paritenin ortalama katkisi sirasiyla 0,3 (2,1) ve 0,8 (0,6) puan olmustur. Son donemlerde ozellikle 2014 Agustos - 2015 Ocak doneminde gerek paritenin gerekse de enerji fiyatlarinin altin haric dis ticaret birim deger endekslerinde gozlenen degisimlerdeki payi onemli olcude yukselmistir. Soz konusu donemde ihracat (ithalat) fiyatlarindaki yillik degisimin ortalamasi yuzde -3,6 (-5,9) olurken, enerji fiyatlarinin katkisi -0,9 (-3,6) puan, paritenin katkisi -3,5 (-2,6) puan olarak hesaplanmistir. [EN] This study calculates the contribution of energy price and exchange rate parity (US dollar equivalent of currencies that are used in external trade) changes to the changes observed in Turkish export and import prices excluding gold between January 2003 and January 2015. In that period, the average annual change in export (import) prices is around 4.5 (5.0) percent, to which energy price and parity contribute 0.3 (2.1) and 0.8 (0.6) percentage points respectively. The individual shares of those two factors in both export and import price movements have been increasing considerably since August of 2014. Quantitatively speaking, export (import) price index on average experienced a -3.6 (-5.9) percent annual change while the energy prices and parity accounted for -0.9 (-3.6) and -3.5 (-2.6) percentage points, respectively. |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1509&r=all |
| By: | Erdal Yilmaz |
| Abstract: | The effect of uncertainty on investment is widely considered to have a negative sign in the real option literature. Contrary to prediction of conventional real option theory, there are studies pioneered by Sarkar (2000) and Gryglewicz et al. (2008) with the argument that this negative relationship is not always correct. Such result is exceptional, since they show that uncertainty may accelerate irreversible investment without building on the convexity of the marginal product of capital in the real option framework. Major contribution of this paper, by applying the Gryglewicz et al. (2008) approach, is to show numerically that the uncertainty-investment relationship in Turkish electricity plant investment is non-monotonic and U-shaped. We also numerically compare those two studies and investigate whether certain conditions in Sarkar (2000) are associated with the parameter support by Gryglewicz et al. (2008) or not. Finally, we numerically demonstrate partial effect of the interest rate changes on optimal investment trigger based on Gryglewicz et al. (2008) framework. |
| Keywords: | Investment, Real Option, Uncertainty |
| JEL: | D92 E22 G31 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1439&r=all |
| By: | Mustafa Utku Özmen; Cagri Sarýkaya |
| Abstract: | [TR] Tuketici enflasyonunun cesitli kredi degiskenlerine duyarliliginin incelendigi bu calismada, Turkiye’de TUFE’nin yaklasik dortte birinin kredilerden etkilendigi bulunmustur. Atuk vd. (2014) calismasinin bulgulariyla birlikte degerlendirildiginde, ekonomi politikalarinin toplam talep ve kredileri etkilemek suretiyle enflasyon sepetinin yaklasik yarisina nufuz edebilecegi sonucuna ulasilmistir. Kredi ve cikti acigi degiskenlerinin enflasyon uzerindeki etkilerinin izlendigi mal ve hizmet kalemleri tespit edilerek para politikasi etki alanina giren ana gruplar belirlenmistir. Calisma, politika uygulamalarinin enflasyon uzerindeki etkilerinin daha net bir sekilde takip edilebilmesini saglayacak cekirdek gostergelerin turetilmesine de katkida bulunacaktir. [EN] This study on the sensitivity of consumer inflation to credit reveals that about one-fourth of the CPI significantly responds to credit use in Turkey. When considered together with the findings of Atuk et al. (2014), we conclude that economic policies targeting aggregate demand and credit may influence half of the inflation basket. The main groups that are under the influence of monetary policy are determined by identifying the goods and services through which the effects of credit and output gap on inflation are observed. This study will also contribute to compilation of core inflation measures that would enable policymakers to better track the effects of monetary policy on inflation. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1417&r=all |
| By: | Hakan Kara; Pinar Ozlu; Deren Unalmis |
| Abstract: | Kuresel kriz sonrasinda para politikasi uygulamalarinin likidite ve kredi politikalarini da icerecek sekilde genisletilmesi politika durusunun degerlendirilmesi bakimindan finansal gostergelerin bir butun halinde ele alinmasinin onemini artirmistir. Bu calismada, cesitli finansal gostergelerin icerdigi bilgi toplulastirilarak Turkiye icin “finansal kosullar endeksi” gelistirilmistir. Endeks temelde kur, faiz, risk primi, kredi kosullari ve getiri egrisi gibi gostergelerin ekonomik aktiviteyi tahmin gucune gore agirliklandirilarak toplulastirilmasindan olusmaktadir. Endeksin cesitli makro gostergeler ile iliskisi incelendiginde finansal kosullar ve iktisadi faaliyet arasindaki iliskinin zaman icinde degistigi, finansal kosullar ve kredi buyumesi arasindaki iliskinin ise oldukca istikrarli bir seyir izledigi gorulmektedir. Calismada ayrica finansal kosullarin hangi olcude dis kosullar (kuresel risk istahi, ABD para politikasi ve dis talep) tarafindan belirlendigi de incelenmektedir. Elde edilen bulgular, finansal kosullardaki hareketlerin buyuk oranda dis kosullar tarafindan acýklanabildigine isaret etmektedir. |
| Keywords: | Financial conditions index, Monetary policy, Credit growth, Forecast performance, VAR |
| JEL: | E43 E52 C22 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1513&r=all |
| By: | Hatice Gokce Karasoy; Caglar Yunculer |
| Abstract: | In this study, we assess empirically the relevance of consumer confidence indices (CCI) to future private consumption dynamics for Turkey in a sample period of 2002Q1 to 2014Q4. To this end, we first estimate models for total private consumption, durable and nondurable consumption growth with and without CCI and evaluate in-sample forecast powers. Next, we evaluate one-step-ahead out-of-sample forecast performances of these models from recursive OLS estimates. Finally, we test whether permanent income and precautionary savings hypotheses are capable of explaining our results on the link between consumer sentiment and future consumption expenditures. In our analyses we employ 4 different CCI series. These are overall index of CNBC-e Survey, overall index of TURKSTAT-CBRT Survey, Consumer Expectations Index (CEI) and Propensity to Consume Index (PCI) from CNBC-e Survey. Our results show that CCI have explanatory power on the future growth of both total consumption and its subcomponents. However, when other relevant variables such as real labour income, real stock price index and real interest rate are augmented to the models, CNBC-e and CEI for durable consumption, CEI and PCI for nondurable consumption are able to preserve their explanatory power on future consumption growth. On the other hand, CCI measures improve out-of-sample forecast performance for nondurable consumption growth. Finally, we find no evidence for either precautionary savings motive or permanent income hypothesis on the link between consumer sentiment and future private consumption changes. |
| Keywords: | Consumer confidence, Private consumption, Forecasting |
| JEL: | C52 C53 D12 E21 E27 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1519&r=all |
| By: | Murat Duran |
| Abstract: | [TR] Bu calisma, finansal piyasalar acisindan oldukca onemli olan doviz kuru tahmininde getiri egrilerinin kullanýlabilirligini incelemektedir. Bu kapsamda Chen ve Tsang (2013) tarafindan gelismis ulkeler icin uygulanan goreli getiri egrileri yaklasimi kullanilmistir. Soz konusu yaklasim, finansal ekonominin en temel konularindan uluslararasi parite kosullari ile faiz oranlarinin vade yapisini aciklayan teorileri bir arada ele almaktadir. Bu dogrultuda yapilan analizler, ABD dolari/TL ve Euro/TL kurlarinin tahmininde goreli getiri egrilerinin kullanilabilecegini gostermektedir. Tahmin ufku uzadikca isabet artmaktadýr. Elde edilen bulgulara gore Turkiye’de getiriler goreli olarak arttiginda ya da getiri egrisi goreli olarak yataylastiginda TL degerlenmektedir. [EN] This note investigates the predictability of exchange rates, which is crucial for the financial markets, using yield curves. In this context, we use the relative yield curve approach carried out by Chen and Tsang (2013) for currencies of several developed countries. This approach is based on two major concepts of financial economics, which are the international parity conditions and the theories on term structure of interest rates. The analyses carried out using this approach indicate that relative yield curves are useful in US Dollar/lira and Euro/lira exchange rate predictions. Moreover, predictions become more accurate as the horizon increases. According to the estimation results, Turkish lira appreciates when yields in Turkey increase relatively or when Turkish yield curve becomes flatter relatively. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1416&r=all |
| By: | Erkan Kilimci; Hakan Er; Irfan Cercil |
| Abstract: | [TR] Bu notla, Turkiye Devlet Ic Borclanma Senetleri (DIBS) ikincil piyasa likiditesini etkileyen faktorlerin belirlenmesi amaclanmaktadir. Bu dogrultuda, sabit getirili menkul kiymetlere yatirim yapan piyasa oyuncularinin karsi karsiya oldugu cesitli risk gruplari belirlenerek, soz konusu risklerin DIBS ikincil piyasa likiditesine etkileri incelenmistir. Bu kapsamda, faiz riski, faiz oynakligi, ara kazanc ticareti (carry) imkani artislari, kur riski ve kur oynakliginin DIBS ikincil piyasa islem hacimleri ve alim-satim fiyat araligi uzerindeki etkileri panel veri analizi yardimiyla arastirilmistir. Analiz sonuclarina gore, soz konusu risk faktorlerinin DIBS piyasasi likiditesi uzerinde etkili olduklari, en buyuk etkilerin ise kur riski, faiz riski ve faiz oynakligi degiskenlerinden kaynaklandigi belirlenmistir. Son olarak, analiz sonuçlari temel alinarak DIBS piyasasi icin bir likidite endeksi olusturulmustur. [EN] In this note, we try to identify the factors that affect the secondary market liquidity of the Government Domestic Debt Securities (GDDS) of Turkey. For this purpose, by underlining the financial fluctuations which account for most of the risks associated with exposures to fixed income securities, we investigate if these fluctuations affect the secondary market liquidity of the GDDS. By utilizing a panel data model, we analyze the effects of interest rate risk, interest rate volatility, currency risk, currency volatility and carry opportunity variables on the trading volume and the bid-ask spreads of the benchmark bonds. We find that mentioned explanatory risk factors are indeed affecting the secondary market liquidity, with most of the risks coming from currency risk, interest rate risk and interest rate volatility. Finally, by using our model’s results, we have built a liquidity index for the secondary market of the GDDS. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1419&r=all |
| By: | Koray Alper; Fatih Altunok; Tanju Capacioglu |
| Abstract: | [TR] Bu calismada, nicel genislemenin gostergesi olan ABD Merkez Bankasi’nin bilanco buyuklugundeki degisimlerin, diger bir ifade ile nicel genisleme politikalarinin Turkiye’de faaliyet gosteren bankalarin dis borclari ile borc turlerini nasil etkiledigi incelenmistir. Nicel genisleme politikalarinin dis borclari onemli olcude artirdigi, analize dahil edilen bes borc turu icerisinde en fazla etkinin kredi turunde yasandigi ve onu sirasiyla repo ve mevduatin takip ettigi, sendikasyon ve sekuritizasyon turleri uzerinde anlamli bir etkisinin olmadigi gorulmustur. Ayrica kuresel likiditenin nispeten sinirli oldugu donemlerde istedigi olcude borclanamayan kucuk, sermaye yapisi zayif, aktif karliligi ve likit aktif rasyosu gorece dusuk bankalarin nicel genisleme sonucu gevseyen kuresel likidite kosullarinda daha fazla borclanabildikleri sonucuna varilmistir. [EN] This study analyzes the effects of the changes in the balance sheet of US Federal Reserve, which is the indicator for quantitative easing or expansionary monetary policies, on the cross - border bank loans and loan types in Turkey. We find that cross border bank loans have increased significantly as a result of quantitative easing policies . Credit, repo and deposit have been affected more by quantitative easing, respectively. However, these policies do not have a significant effect on syndicated loans and securitization. Furthermore, we find that banks with small asset size, weak capital structure, low return on asset and low liquid asset ratio that could not borrow at the desired level during illiquid period due to their underwhelming ratios started to search for yield and borrow more during liquid period due to the Fed’s expansionary monetary policies. |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1514&r=all |
| By: | Evren Ceritoglu; Okan Eren |
| Abstract: | [TR] Bu calismanin amaci Turkiye ekonomisinin 2014 – 2050 donemi icin isgucune katilim orani ongoruleri hazirlamaktir. Isgucune katilim orani ongoruleri TUIK tarafindan yayimlanan Hanehalki Isgucu Anketi (HÝA) mikro-ekonomik verileri kullanilarak yas gruplari, cinsiyet ve egitim duzeyi ayriminda uretilmistir. Alt gruplar icin uretilen isgucune katilim orani tahminleri guncel TUIK nufus projeksiyonlari ile agirliklandirilarak Turkiye geneli icin ongorulere ulasilmistir. Bu calismanin Turkiye ekonomisine iliskin yazina en onemli katkisi onumuzdeki yillarda egitim duzeyinin yukselmesinin ve nufusun yaslanmasinin isgucune katilim oranlari uzerindeki etkilerini dikkate alarak isgucune katilim oran ongoruleri olusturmasidir. Bu cercevede, isgucune katilim oraninin onumuzdeki yillarda artmaya devam etmesi, fakat nufusun yaslanmasinin artis egilimini sinirlandirmasi beklenmektedir. [EN] This study aims to prepare labor force participation rate projections for the 2014 – 2050 period of the Turkish economy. Labor force participation rate projections are produced with respect to age group, gender and education categories using micro-economic data from the TURKSTAT Household Labor Force Surveys. Labor force participation rate predictions produced for each category are weighted by up-to-date TURKSTAT population projections to reach country level projections. The main contribution of this study to the literature on the Turkish economy is that it reveals the effects of the increase in education level and the ageing of the population on labor force participation rates in the next years. As a result, the rise in labor force participation rates is expected to continue in the coming years, but the ageing of the population will limit its growth. |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:1507&r=all |
| By: | Selen Baser Andic; Fethi Ogunc |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we analyze the forecasting properties of a wide variety of variables for Turkish inflation, and thereby pin down the ones producing robust forecasts periodically. Defining the lag structure of a variable in two different ways, we determine the non-leading forecasters and leading indicators of inflation. We employ a pseudo out-of-sample approach and compare the forecasting performance of each variable ex-post with the benchmark model. We measure forecast errors over forecast horizons instead of over time for each horizon. Results suggest that no single variable gives the best forecasts at all times, hence inflation is best forecast by different variables each period. This finding promotes the use of forecast combination strategies and/or multivariate model settings. |
| Keywords: | Inflation, Variable selection, Leading indicator, Turkey |
| JEL: | C50 C53 E31 E37 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1506&r=all |