nep-cwa New Economics Papers
on Central and Western Asia
Issue of 2015‒05‒22
eleven papers chosen by
Christian Zimmermann
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

  1. Factors Affecting Changes in Perceptions of Turkish People Towards Syrian Refugees By mücahit navruz; Mehmet Akif Çukurçay
  2. Investigation of Participation in Adult Education in Turkey: AES Data Analysis By Dincer, Nergiz; Tekin-Koru, Ayça; Aşkar, Petek
  3. “Women, Peace, and Security: The Case of Turkey” By Vanessa Tinker
  4. Financial Development and Economic Growth: Turkey Case By Alperen A
  5. The relationship between Economic Growth, Exports and Government Expenditure: The case of Turkey By Fatih OKUR; Özgür Bayram SOYLU
  6. The Impact of Female Education on Teenage Fertility: Evidence from Turkey By Gunes, Pinar
  7. A League of Their Own: Services Exporters –A Developing Country Perspective- By Dincer, Nergiz; Tekin-Koru, Ayça
  8. OBLIGATION TO GIVE REASONS By GONCA KOZANO
  9. Indicator Based Forecasting of Business Cycles in Azerbaijan By Mammadov, Fuad; Shaig Adigozalov, Shaiq
  10. The The Role of Social Responsibility and the Growth Perspectives in Business (The case of Georgia)) By Eka Chokheli
  11. NUMBERS IN ANATOLIAN BELIEVES AND RITUALS FROM PAST TO PRESENT By Asl KAHRAMAN Ç

  1. By: mücahit navruz (Selcuk University); Mehmet Akif Çukurçay (Selcuk University)
    Abstract: Until recently, Turkey known as a source or transit country in migration routes, transformed into a target country for refugees due to civil wars and foreign interventions in countries of the region. Refugee influxes caused by the civil war in Syria has made Turkey one of the countries with the highest refugee population in the world. With the start of the civil war in Syria, Turkey applied 'open door policy' and temporary protection was granted to all Syrians on prima facie basis. Although the adoption of the psychological threshold of 100 thousand refugees at the initial period of the crisis, threshold was exceeded in a very short time and assumptions of Turkish government about civil war have not realized. Furthermore Al-Asad regime has strengthened its position because of the disharmony and inconsistency in opposition groups. With the interval of radical islamic groups, parallel with the decline in public support in Western countries, Syrian policy of Westren governments began to change. Active support to opposition declined and civil war turned into a vicious cycle. The most significant effect of this situation on Turkey is transformation of short-term guests into permanent refugees. Prolongation of the civil war reducing the Syrian's prospects of return, made Turkey host one of the most populous diasporas in the world. With increasing economic and social burdens, Turkey's ‘human-rights based approach’ to Syrian refugee policy bagan to show signs of exhaustion and ‘security based approach’ came up to the agenda. Main factor causing this condition is perception changes of Turkish people against Syrian refugees. In this paper, factors affecting the perception of the Turkish people will be examined.
    Keywords: Refugees of Syrian Civil War, Urban Refugees, Host-Refugee Relations
    JEL: F22
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iacpro:1003689&r=cwa
  2. By: Dincer, Nergiz; Tekin-Koru, Ayça; Aşkar, Petek
    Abstract: The aim of this study is to provide the determinants of participation in adult education in a non-EU developing country, Turkey. The analysis is conducted on a set of data on individuals engaging in adult education using the Adult Education Survey (AES), applied by TurkStat. The results indicate that economic growth in the sector of employment, significantly and positively affects the odds for adult education and characteristics of men and women who take courses in the most popular fields of education vary. Moreover, younger, more educated and employed individuals are more likely to take part in adult education activities in Turkey. A person with none or only a primary school education is not active in adult education independent of gender.
    Keywords: Adult education, economic growth, Turkey, non-formal education
    JEL: I21 I25
    Date: 2015–05
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:64364&r=cwa
  3. By: Vanessa Tinker (Selcuk University)
    Abstract: For the past three decades, the Government of Turkey has endured three decades of internal conflict with the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). Then late in 2012 the political and social climate was ripe for a ceasefire and to enter into negotiations between the Government of Turkey and the PKK about finding a solution to the “Kurdish Question”. Literature and research has covered different aspects of this peace process, however little attention has been paid to the role of women, not just as victims but active agents in this process. This paper seeks to address this overlooked and yet vital dimension of the peace process. Despite being a signatory of both the Convention on the Elimination of Discrimination Against Women (CEDAW) and the UN Security Council Resolution 1325 Turkey has so far failed to develop a holistic and comprehensive framework for gender mainstreaming in both its national and foreign policies and peace building initiatives. By failing to pay attention to their role we fail to understand the contribution women have made to this process and society at large. This paper intends to fill this gap in both literature and research by providing policy recommendations for a more inclusive participatory approach of women as active players in the peace process. This paper will provide an overview of the current situation in Turkey. It will also analyze the impact the process has had on women in Turkey, especially in the South Eastern region. It will identify barriers to their full participation in conflict transformation and peace building. Furthermore it will examine the roles they have placed in negotiations, reconciliation, peace building, recovery, and reconstitution. Also it will highlight examples of existing case examples of women engagement engaged in the existing peace processes and identify the best practices and lessons learned in order to pave the way for greater participation in the peace process of Turkey.
    Keywords: women, peace building, conflict management, security, and Turkey
    JEL: H10 H12 D74
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iacpro:1003717&r=cwa
  4. By: Alperen A (Institution of Social Sciences Hacettepe University)
    Abstract: In this study, the relationship between financial development and economic growth has been handled in the light of causality linkage through the concerning variables in Turkey during the period 1984-2013. Four major variables for financial development have been used to evaluate this relationship. Moreover, investments are thought to be an effective variable to complete the causality between financial development and economic growth. To this end, the relationship has been observed by adding the investment variable to the model with the financial development indicators. Granger causality tests have been applied by using Johansen’s co-integration and vector error-correction methodology. Additionally, to ensure the effects and directions of causality impulse-response tests have been employed. Although there are several results and contributions for the direction of causality among the literature, this study reveals that there are causality from financial development to economic growth with significant variables. Growth, on the other hand, causes to financial development by only one important variable. Banking and financial regulations are crucial for a solid growth and reliable financial markets. The politics regarding to financial markets had to be applied substantially.
    Keywords: Financial Development, Economic Growth, Turkey, Granger Causality, Error Correction Model, Co-integration
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iacpro:1003857&r=cwa
  5. By: Fatih OKUR (Social Sciences); Özgür Bayram SOYLU (Social Sciences)
    Abstract: The aim of this study, to analyze the relationship between economic growth, exports and government expenditures in the period of 1980-2013; to test If export-led growth hypothesis holds in Turkey. In this analyze, ADF unit root, Johansen Co-integration and Granger Causality tests are used. According to ADF unit root test, all the variables are stationary in their first levels. Johansen Co-integration results show that there is a long-run relationship between economic growth, exports and government expenditure. Because there is co-integration between the variables, VECM is used to test causality. Empirical results show that there is a unidirectional causality which runs from export to economic growth in the short-run period. In the long-run period, While it is found that the causality runs as bidirectional between economic growth and government expenditure, there is a unidirectional causality which runs from export to economic growth and government expenditure.
    Keywords: Economic Growth, Export, Government Expenditure, VECM, Causality
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iacpro:1003844&r=cwa
  6. By: Gunes, Pinar (University of Alberta, Department of Economics)
    Abstract: This paper explores the causal relationship between female education and teenage fertility by exploiting a change in the compulsory schooling law (CSL) in Turkey. Using variation in the exposure to the CSL across cohorts and variation across provinces by the intensity of additional classrooms constructed in the birth provinces as an instrumental variable, the results indicate that primary school completion reduces teenage fertility by 0.37 births and the incidence of teenage childbearing by around 25 percentage points. Exploring heterogeneous effects indicates that female education reduces teenage fertility more in provinces with lower population density and higher agricultural activity. Finally, the CSL postpones childbearing by delaying marriage, thereby reducing fertility.
    Keywords: Economic Development; Fertility; Female Education; Compulsory Schooling; Instrumental Variables; Turkey
    JEL: I25 J13 O10
    Date: 2015–05–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:albaec:2015_005&r=cwa
  7. By: Dincer, Nergiz; Tekin-Koru, Ayça
    Abstract: This paper provides a firm level portrait of services exporters along with goods exporters in a developing country. Current findings of firm level services trade literature suggest that the stylized facts of goods trade apply to services trade as well for a set of developed countries. This paper investigates if similar results hold for a developing country, Turkey, for the period 2003-2008. Most results lend support to the evidence found in the previous literature. However, the analysis of Turkish data shows that firms that export both goods and services are larger than those exporting goods or services only.
    Keywords: Goods and services exporters, services exports, firm heterogeneity, developing country
    JEL: F10 F14
    Date: 2015–05
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:64363&r=cwa
  8. By: GONCA KOZANO (SELÇUK UNIVERSITY LAW FACULTY)
    Abstract: Administration is obliged to notify the reasons of administrative act if the obligation to give reasons is explicitly regulated in the law. However, even if there is no explicit obligation to give reasons in positive regulations, in the rule of law, it is essential for the administration to notify the reasons of any administrative act on the basis of the justification principle In other words, even though there is no explicit regulation regarding obligation to give reasons, it is accepted that administrative acts are required to be justified because of the principle of the rule of law. In the light of these explanations, the obligation to give reasons, which does not fall within the implementation of Turkish Law very often while become an indispensable part of a modern administrative procedure, is tried to be examined in this study. Primarily, the definition of the obligation to give reasons, the relation between the reason and grounds for administrative act, and the basis of the obligation to give reasons are indicated. Following this, the functions of the obligation to give reasons, respectively, in terms of administrative, people who are subject to the administrative act and the judicial review, are addressed. Afterwards, the wording of the reasoning is touched upon. Under this title, after stated the requirement for reasoning to be explicit and clear, material and legal reasons and reasoning of administrative act based on discretion are mentioned. Finally, the obligation to give reasons and its breach in Turkish Law are evaluated.
    Keywords: Justification, Obligation to give reasons, Material and Legal Reasons, Separation of Justification and Reason in an Administrative Act, Breach of Obligation to give reasons.
    JEL: K30 K30 K30
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iacpro:1003100&r=cwa
  9. By: Mammadov, Fuad; Shaig Adigozalov, Shaiq
    Abstract: This paper has attempted to construct leading indicator systems and based on that to predict future contraction period of the Azerbaijan non-oil economy using more than 100 publicly available economic and financial data. Our results show plausible and significant performance of composite leading indicator system with average leading time of 7.2 months. We found that between January of 2000 and May of 2014, there were 6 turning points in Azerbaijan non-oil economy, consisting of three peaks and three troughs corresponding three expansion and four contraction periods. It turns out that the average duration of expansion and contraction phases is 43 and 10 month, respectively. Based on selected leading indicators we constructed composite indicator is found to be able to predict all the six turning points. Using dynamic probit model we estimated contraction probability of non-oil output gap for the future period. Out-of-sample as well as in-sample forecast performance suggest that the leading indicator systems have significant predictive power and could be used as a useful tool for economic forecasting.
    Keywords: Business cycles, Dating, Turning points, Forecasting, Probit Model
    JEL: C25 C53 E32
    Date: 2014–10–10
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:64367&r=cwa
  10. By: Eka Chokheli (Ivane Javaxishvili Tbilisi State University)
    Abstract: In modern day, it is impossible to have a proper reputation and to not be active in terms of social responsibility. It is necessary for business sector development. Social responsibility is an additional tool for improving company image, efficiency of communication with the public and for sustainable development and ensuring stability. Social responsibility has become typical and a common way of doing business worldwide. According to the research consultation center Next Consulting, the degree of social responsibility is much higher in European Companies than in their American counterparts. According to the current data, 75 percent of the companies with high social responsibility are European and 25 percent is American.The discussions on corporate social responsibility in Georgia began in 2005. The UN program Global agreement – Georgia was developed in 2007. The program aims promoting the concept of corporate social responsibility and installing international social reporting practices. In recent years, Georgia provided precedents for social reporting – British Petroleum Georgia, Natakhtari have already created first Georgian social reports. Nowadays, business companies in Georgia spend quite a lot on social projects and charities in adequacy to their scope and capabilities. However, their actions often come in forms of individual charity activities rather than in the form of systematic social responsibility project. Therefore, it is important for corporate social activity to avoid chaos and get systematized. Its general principles should include: corporate management and ethics; protection of human rights; environmental protection; addressing the needs of society; forbidding corruption; protection of customer rights and product responsibility; transparency and accountability.The research aims to evaluate the role of corporate social responsibility in business companies, to assess social responsibility in business companies operating in Georgia and to formulate activities for growth. Within the research, theoretical analysis relies on the works conducted by world famous scientists in management, while practical part regards qualitative research of companies operating in Georgia for which surveys and company information resources have been used. The study uses graphical methods and methods of grouping and comparison.The research findings reveal that social responsibility is important for succeeding in business and is necessary to be considered in company strategies. Novelty of the research is determination of corporate social responsibility trends in Georgia and formulation of recommendations for growth.
    Keywords: Social Responsibility, reputation, charity, environmental protection.
    JEL: M14 M19
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iacpro:1003713&r=cwa
  11. By: Asl KAHRAMAN Ç (Bozok Universitesi Social Faculty)
    Abstract: Numbers have been used in each civilisation for the purpose of ritual from past to present. When the Ancient periods of Central Asia, Mesopotamia, Egypt and Anatolia are analysed, it is realized that 1,3,5,9,13,40 numbers are frequently used for religious traditions, rituals and superstitions. The holiness of these numbers is seen in the religious structre, number of gods, pantheon organisation, the sacrifices for god, mythology. The holiness of numbers are also both polytheist and monotheist religion.In this study, holy numbers used by ancient civilisations will be compared with various applications used stil in Anatolia which is called craddle of civilisation. Anatolian territories today is a geography in which common religious and cultural values of Anatolia, Mesopotamia and Central Asia civilisations are blended. Mythology, religion, ritual, proverbs, idioms, tales, lullabies, superstitions of th
    Keywords: Ancient Anatolia, Mesopotamia and Central Asia, holiness, holy numbers, ritual and numbers, superstitions
    JEL: Z12
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iacpro:1003778&r=cwa

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