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on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Aliyev, Khatai; Gasimov, Ilkin |
| Abstract: | Following Romer (1993), openness-inflation nexus has been subject to many empirical researches. However, South Caucasus economies are not studied yet. The aim of this research is to fill this gap in empirical literature by using multiple regression models and impulse-response function analysis for the region countries, Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan, separately for the period 1996-2012. To define the level of openness, methodology in Ashra (2002) is used. Findings provide no significant impact of the openness on inflation level in all region countries, except partially Georgia. However, the direction of the relationship differs across countries because of the international trade patterns. |
| Keywords: | Openness, inflation, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, time-series analysis, impulse-response analysis |
| JEL: | F11 F13 F14 F15 |
| Date: | 2014–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:62761&r=cwa |
| By: | Kulaksizoglu, Tamer |
| Abstract: | This paper employs a new econometric technique to estimate the core inflation in Turkey measured as the shifting means in levels between 1955 and 2014. Using monthly series, we determine the number of shifts using the BIC, the hv-block cross-validation, the Lin-Teräsvirta parameter constancy test, and the neural networks test for neglected non-linearity. We find that there are at least three shifts in the inflation series. The findings help detect the exact dates of the shifts between different inflation regimes and the duration of each shift, which should be important information in evaluating the success of past economic policies in fighting inflation. |
| Keywords: | Inflation; Shifting mean autoregressive model; Transition function |
| JEL: | C22 C45 C52 E31 |
| Date: | 2015–03–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:62653&r=cwa |