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on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Aysit Tansel (Department of Economics Middle East Technical University, Turkey); Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir (Department of Economics, Gazi University, Besevler, 06500, Ankara, Turkey); Emre Aksoy (Department of Economics, Kirikkale University, Kirikkale, Turkey) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the relationship between labor force participation rate and unemployment rate in Turkey a developing country. Cointegration analysis is carried out for the aggregate and gender and age specific series. The findings indicate that there is no long-run relationship between labor force participation and unemployment rates in Turkey. Thus, unlike in the case of the developed countries the unemployment invariance hypothesis is supported in Turkey. |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tek:wpaper:2015/05&r=cwa |
| By: | Dinçer, Gönül; Muratoğlu, Yusuf |
| Abstract: | Son dönemlerin en belirgin ve en tartışmalı olgularından birisi olan uluslararası göç; hem göçün kaynaklandığı ülkelerde, hem de göç alıcı ülkelerde önemli sosyal ve ekonomik değişimlere yol açmaktadır. Dolayısıyla giderek daha fazla sayıda araştırmacı bu olgunun nedenlerini ve sonuçlarını araştırmaya yönelmektedir. Göçlerin ekonomik nedenleri, Çekim Modeli (Gravity Model) kullanılarak çok yönlü ve etkin bir biçimde analiz edilebilmektedir. Çekim Modeli, genellikle ülkeler arasındaki karşılıklı ticaret akımlarını inceleyen, görece yeni, açıklama gücü yüksek ve kullanışlı bir modeldir. Öte yandan Model, ülkeler arasındaki göç akımlarını analiz etmeye de oldukça elverişli olup, uluslararası göç alan yazınında da kullanılmaktadır. Bu çalışmada Türkiye’den 20 OECD ülkesine 1960-2010 döneminde gerçekleşen göçün ekonomik belirleyenleri Genişletilmiş Çekim Modeli (Augmented Gravity Model) kullanılarak analiz edilmiştir. |
| Keywords: | Uluslararası Göç, Çekim Modeli, Panel Veri Analizi |
| JEL: | C33 F14 F22 |
| Date: | 2014–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:62201&r=cwa |
| By: | Dinçer, Gönül |
| Abstract: | The share of BRICS countries in the world trade is significantly rising for more than a decade and it was approximately 3 % in 1980, 6 % in 2000 and 16 % in 2013 in the total world imports. The same rising pattern of BRICS is also being seen in Turkey’s trade since early 2000s. In this study, the imports of Turkey from BRICS are analyzed using an augmented gravity model over the period 2002-2012. The results indicate that the basic gravity variables are consistent with the theory. Furthermore, R&D expenditures in Turkey is negatively correlated with Turkey’s imports from BRICS countries whereas R&D expenditures in BRICS countries are positively correlated. |
| Keywords: | International Trade, the Gravity Model, Panel Data Analysis, BRICS, Turkey |
| JEL: | C33 F10 F14 |
| Date: | 2014–10–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:61979&r=cwa |
| By: | Akgündüz, Yusuf Emre (Utrecht University); van den Berg, Marcel (Statistics Netherlands); Hassink, Wolter (Utrecht University) |
| Abstract: | The civil war in Syria has culminated into major refugee crises in its neighboring countries. By the end of 2013 more than half a million people were seeking shelter in cities and refugee camps in Turkey. We analyze how the Syrian refugee influx in Turkey has affected food and housing prices, employment rates and internal migration patterns in regions of Turkey where refugees are being accommodated. Refugee camps are geographically concentrated near the Syrian border, which enables us to employ the rest of regional Turkey as control group with a difference-in-difference approach to analyze the impact on local economies. Our findings suggest that housing and to a lesser degree food prices increased, but employment rates of natives in various skill groups are largely unaffected. Incumbent natives appear to be staying put considering the limited migration out of the region, but there is a significant decline in internal migration into regions hosting refugees. Nevertheless, the decline in internal in-migration is less than a tenth of the refugee influx, implying that there is little evidence of refugees crowding out natives in local labor markets. |
| Keywords: | refugees, employment, migration, inflation, regional economy, difference-in-difference |
| JEL: | F22 J61 R23 |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp8841&r=cwa |
| By: | Meltem Ucal (Department of Economics, Kadir Has University, Istanbul, Turkey); Mehmet Hüseyin Bilgin (Department of International Relations, Istanbul Medeniyet University, Istanbul, Turkey); Alfred Haug (Department of Economics, University of Otago, New Zealand) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores how foreign direct investment (FDI) and other determinants impact income inequality in Turkey in the short- and long-run. We apply the ARDL (Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag) modelling approach, which is suitable for small samples. The data for the study cover the years from 1970 to 2008. The empirical results indicate the existence of a cointegration relationship among the variables. The positive impact of the FDI growth rate on income inequality, worsening inequality, is shown to be significant in the short-run, though at the 10% significance level only and with a quantitatively small impact, and insignificant in the long-run. In other words, FDI increases income inequality initially somewhat but this effect disappears in the long run. The literacy rate clearly reduces inequality in the long run, but also in the short run. On the other hand, population growth worsens inequality in the long run, and the effect is quite large, though it has no statistically significant effect on inequality in the short run. Also, an increase in GDP growth reduces inequality especially in the short run (at a 5% level of significance) but also in the long run (though only at the 10% level). |
| Keywords: | Income inequality, foreign direct investment, ARDL estimation, FM-OLS estimation, Turkey |
| JEL: | D31 F21 C32 C13 |
| Date: | 2014–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:otg:wpaper:1407&r=cwa |
| By: | Mohammad Reza Farzanegan (University of Marburg); Mohammad Mohammadikhabbazan (Tarbiat Moddaress University); Hossein Sadeghi (Tarbiat Moddaress University) |
| Abstract: | We examine the macroeconomic and household welfare consequences of oil sanctions in Iran. We use social accounting matrix (SAM) and develop a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to simulate selected scenarios in which the exportation of oil from Iran to the rest of the world is banned. Our main results show that higher income households are losing more significantly under oil sanctions. Total imports, exports, private consumption, and GDP fall in response to oil sanctions. Interesting is the increase of net indirect taxes at the time of oil revenues fall. Real exchange rate appreciates in the oil sanction crisis. In addition, labor income increases while the capital income falls in response to oil sanctions in Iran. These simulations are in line with reality of the Iranian economy in post-oil sanction period. |
| Keywords: | oil, sanctions, CGE model, social accounting matrix, Iran |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mar:magkse:201507&r=cwa |