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on Central and Western Asia |
| By: | Ayşe Güveli; Harry Ganzeboom; Helen Baykara-Krumme; Lucinda Platt; Şebnem Eroğlu; Niels Spierings; Sait Bayrakdar; Bernhard Nauck; Efe K. Sozeri |
| Abstract: | Despite extensive recent advances in the empirical and theoretical study of migration, certain critical areas in the analysis of European migration remain relatively underdeveloped both theoretically and empirically. Specifically, we lack studies that both incorporate an origin comparison and trace processes of intergenerational transmission across migrants over multiple generations and incorporating family migration trajectories. This paper outlines the development, data and design of such a study, the 2000 Families study, framed within a theoretical perspective of ‘dissimilation’ from origins and over generations. We term the study an origins-of-migration study, in that it captures the country of origin, the family origins and potentially the originating causes of migration processes and outcomes. The resulting data comprised nearly 2,000 migrant and non-migrant Turkish families with members across three or more generations, covering. 50,000 individuals. We reflect on the potential of this study for migration research. |
| Keywords: | Migration; Europe; Turkey; dissimilation; intergenerational transmission; originsof- migration study |
| JEL: | J12 J15 R23 |
| Date: | 2014–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:60032&r=cwa |
| By: | Kaya, Ayşe; Şen, Hüseyin |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this paper is to analyze empirically the short- and long-run effects of tax shocks on private consumption expenditure on component basis in Turkey. To do so, first, we decomposed private consumption expenditure into four major sub-categories, including food, education, and transportation, among others. And then, we employed a Structural VAR (SVAR) model which was calibrated to quarterly data set for the period 2003:Q1-2013:Q3. Specifically, our empirical findings show that the effects of tax shocks on the components of private consumption expenditure differ in the short- and long-run. In the short-run, all the taxes which we considered have a significant effect on the components of private consumption expenditure, whereas in the long-run only two taxes the VAT and the personal income tax– affect it. However, it is important to highlight that the components of private consumption expenditure are much more affected by the VAT in the both short- and long-run. In brief, the findings reveal that the effects of tax shocks on private consumption expenditure shows difference, changing according to sorts of taxes, components of the expenditure, and the length of period. |
| Keywords: | Tax Shocks, VAT, Special Consumption Tax, Personal Income Tax, Private Consumption Expenditure, Fiscal Policy, Turkey. |
| JEL: | E21 E62 H20 H30 |
| Date: | 2015–02–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:61857&r=cwa |
| By: | Mohamed Ihsan Ajwad; Joost de Laat; Stefan Hut; Jennica Larrison; Ilhom Abdulloev; Robin Audy; Zlatko Nikoloski; Federico Torracchi |
| Abstract: | This report is about education, skills, and labor market outcomes in the Kyrgyz Republic. The report shows that skills are valued in the Kyrgyz Republic labor market, yet skills gaps persist. Three findings are particularly noteworthy. First, higher skilled youth have better employment outcomes, meaning that youth with more cognitive and non-cognitive skills are more likely to be employed than inactive or discouraged youth. Second, workers with higher cognitive and non-cognitive skills are more likely to use those skills in their daily work. Third, workers with higher skills—cognitive skills especially—tend to have higher quality (formal sector, less repetitive tasks, less physical work) jobs. However, large variations in observed skills among those with the same level of educational attainment indicate that formal education is failing too many people, even though skill development occurs at different stages in the life cycle and a host of actors are involved—families, for example, play a central role. The report argues that the government could shift some of its focus from providing access to educational institutions and instead focus on providing the skills (cognitive, non-cognitive, and technical) students need to succeed as adults. The government can also do more to get children off to the right start by investing in early childhood development programs, where rates of return to investment are generally very high and important soft skills are learned. Finally, more can be done to match the supply of skills with employer demand by improving the use of information in matching skills to jobs in the labor market. |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2014–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:59959&r=cwa |
| By: | Torun, Huzeyfe; Tumen, Semih |
| Abstract: | Based on a law enacted in November 1999, males born on or before December 31st 1972 are given the option to benefit from a paid exemption from the compulsory military service in Turkey. Exploiting this natural experiment, we devise an empirical strategy to estimate the intention-to-treat effect of this paid exemption on the education and labor market outcomes of the individuals in the target group. We find that the paid exemption reform reduces the years of schooling among males who are eligible to benefit from the reform relative to the ineligible ones. In particular, the probability of receiving a college degree or above falls among the eligible males. The result is robust to alternative estimation strategies. We find no reduction in education when we implement the same exercises with (i) data on females and (ii) placebo reform dates. The interpretation is that the reform has reduced the incentives to continue education for the purpose of deferring military service. We also find suggestive evidence that the paid exemption reform reduces the labor income for males in the target group. The reduction in earnings is likely due to the reduction in education. |
| Keywords: | Compulsory military service; draft avoidance; intention to treat; education; earnings. |
| JEL: | C21 I21 J21 J31 |
| Date: | 2015–01–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:61722&r=cwa |
| By: | International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. |
| Abstract: | KEY ISSUES Context. Macroeconomic developments have been in line with the program. Growth has recovered, led by domestic demand, with the Russia-Ukraine crisis having limited economic impact so far. Growth should reach 5 percent in 2014. Georgia and the EU started applying their Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) agreement provisionally in September. Although some ministers left the cabinet in November, the ruling Georgian Dream government has kept its majority and has reaffirmed its commitment to Georgia’s goal of increased European integration. Outlook and Risks. Growth should remain at 5 percent in 2015. Downside risks stem from possible escalation of regional tensions and weaker recovery in the Euro area. On the upside, lower oil prices could boost growth and reduce the current account deficit. Policies. Although this year’s fiscal deficit should come in below target, the composition of spending has again shifted from capital to current and the substantial increase in government spending planned for the fourth quarter could lead to balance of payments pressures. The 3 percent of GDP deficit in the 2015 draft budget is consistent with the program objectives of preserving fiscal sustainability and supporting external adjustment. The draft budget envisages increases in pensions, teacher salaries, drug benefit coverage, and capital spending paid for by higher excises on tobacco, alcohol, and incoming international phone calls. Annual inflation rose to 3½ percent in October but remains below the National Bank of Georgia’s (NBG) inflation target of 6 percent for 2014. The stability of the lari against the U.S. dollar has resulted in appreciation against key trading partners. The current account deficit has widened in 2014 as expected with the economic recovery but should decline in the medium term supported by fiscal consolidation, exchange rate flexibility, reforms to improve competitiveness, and greater trade opportunities. Reserve accumulation under the program will strengthen resilience to shocks. The NBG is committed to implementing the FSAP recommendations. Program. The program is on track, with all September conditionality met except for the structural benchmark on preparing an access to finance study which has now been reset. SDR40 million will become available upon the completion of the review. |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:15/17&r=cwa |
| By: | Angus O. Unegbu; Augustine Okanlawon |
| Abstract: | Kurdistan Region is a tourist hub. This research analyzes other Non-Oil Sectors that have huge attractions of Foreign Direct Investments into the Kurdistan Region from 2005 to 2013. Comparative analysis was carried out between Iraq and the Region, and among influential Sectors of the Economy. T-test and ANOVA are statistical tools employed in testing the research hypotheses. The research identify that there exist significant Foreign Direct Investment inflows across the governorates in the region and among influential sectors of the Economy. The research also highlighted areas of high level of investment needs, sectors that have been crowded out and business opportunities in the region that requires huge Foreign Direct Investments. It is recommended that the Regional Kurdistan Government should embark on fiscal Cashless policies in order to stimulate further spill-off effects of attracting enormous Non-Oil Sectors of Foreign Direct Investments into the region. |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1502.00218&r=cwa |